Topic: IT STILL ISN'T BACK TO "NORMAL"! (Read 5792 times)

FTFY

There won't be any "normal" state for the next months in my opinion.

You think my parents ever heard about it? Guess again 

But it's more for fun of course, don't feel offended. It could go to zero tomorrow just as easily. If I look what I can actually do with Bitcoin today, it's still nothing other than having coins Goxxed at Gox and talk about being Goxxed here at bitcointalk. Bitcoin is great in our heads, but still absent in real life by all practical means.

The reason for spending time making useless graphs is to keep minds moving.

As long as the Bitcoin protocol is not compromised, Bitcoin will have a place unless international payments will be free of costs and instantaneously. The next few years, 2 billion people will get access to the Internet. No, they won't need a bank account. It's a game changer.

But of course it is possible that the paradigm shift has happened and that now the practical implementation must happen to make it a success. I'm having fun nonetheless.

So it has come to this, the most normal person in this thread is 'crazy':


"So were you ignoring that "Media Attention" label because it doesn't fit your assumptions or? Plus the "enthusiasm," "greed," yea. Definitely haven't seen any of that around here. $100,000 per BTC definitely isn't "Delusion." People saying bitcoin isn't a bubble because it's something that's never been before, that's not "New Paradigm" either."

I had the same feeling.

I see it as a communications medium.  In this way bitcoin is more comparable to television, radio, cell phones, email, etc, than some stock.   Ask 20 people on the street if they've ever heard of "email" or "the web" and see what response you get.

It is an e-metal then -or a Ponzi scheme. Sure no currency behaves like that.

Anyway. Funny fact: now that I think of it, when I graduated, my friends did make me ask random strangers if they knew bitcoins (since I was talking about them quite often -it was back in the Pirate days). Most frowned at me, but one said he was a researcher and some of his colleagues were working on a related project. It was quite a shock!

I don't see why people keep referring to that chart. I could find hundreds of graphs that look like that and say SEE IT'S THE SAME.

Yeah, but Bitcoin isn't a stock.

I quite doubt many people in the streets had heard of the dot-com stocks either...

We are definitively in the Awareness Phase. Ask 20 strangers on the street if they've heard of bitcoin.

The Long term chart shows many opportunities to get rid of your coin after either a runup, or a dip. I think what happened last week will be remembered in Bitcoin's history as an event as big as the crashes of November 2010, August 2011, September 2011, February 2012 and August 2012.

In other words, meh. Except for those that sold completely out, and are therefore completely out.

 

It is back to what it's normal in bitcoin, going up and down. It works for me as a currency, I've been using it frequently since last year, only recently started to hoard some little coins, realizing the potencial.

Perhaps....

FTFY

This. Techcrunch just wrote how VC:s are investing in Bitcoin, Winklewossies, more people now about Bitcoin than ever before...

We are just entering the awareness phase.   Nine out if ten people have no idea what Bitcoin is and the media is just starting to cluelessly report it.  We will be in the mania phase when taxi drivers are boasting of bitcoin profits and the media are praising it as stupidly as they dismiss it now. 

When Jim Cramer says Bitcoin is a buy buy buy, then I will know we are in the mania phase.

Agree.
2011 bubble looks now like a little pimple compering with the current one.
One day $266 peak will look the same.

Bitcoin becoming a huge Brand in the world of Financial Speculation. We will see completely different numbers soon. I'm not willing to sell my long-term BTC portfolio for funny $300 per coin. 2014 target is at least low-middle $X,XXX. Just relax and wait for a next bubble.

Trade on exchange only btc you can afford to lose.
Keep safe and increese your long-term Bitcoin investment.

No more 1080p 3D charts! I'm getting dizzy

That is actually quite interesting.

Hey guys, I fixed the graph. 

I'm afraid it's really up to mtgox. I personally use alternative exchange just because I know these guys at mtgox are morons.

But does it know a guy who read about it in newspapers, looked up wikipedia.org and fired the money to the mtgox?

It was after BTC was legalized by Fincen. 2-3 days later price jumped 50% in 24h. I remember this because i went in myself.

How the hell is that a bear trap?

Yeah, as an epic failure, if some major community action is not done to make sure this never happens again.

+1. Excellent graph!

Not true at all. I live in Spain and I have to tell you no one even knows here the BTC. The people didn't run into BTC as you suppose. From my point of view, the average spaniard would go into gold I don't think they are open minded enough to go into BTC. Any way, protecting your savings buying BTC looks like a really bad idea.. it's so experimental at this point.

By the way, Spain havent suffered any bail-in yet.

Why don't more people discuss that Cyprus was announced on March 17th when BTC was at $50.  This was when the insane push up happened.  People in Spain and Cyprus were moving money in BTC because they were freaking out.  There were quite a number of news stories that showed this.  Now that those people have sold and moved on they will not be coming back.  I expect $30-$50 BTC by tomorrow and probably some new crazy event in the next year driving up another huge bubble where I will sell off again.

Edit: The drive to $50 was getting out of hand and it was going sideways.  I suspected a downward correction at that time but was prepared to hold it.  The only thing that changed that was March 17th.  I sold at $230 on Tuesday night after the last run-up.  People keep using stock charts to predict a beta currency.  There are other factors than trend lines at work here and a lot of money is either cashed in or lost now.  Don't hold your breath waiting for $200 to come back or you might not make it there.

We are well below the mean now, it appears. Drawing the lines, it should converge to ~120 -that is, double the price now on BitStamp.

I'm no economist, but, wow, it is crazy how those graphs line up almost perfectly.

I can pay 5-10% over for any cash in the exchanges except Gox. Sell your bitcoins now and turn the cash over to me, profit 5-10%!!

Or sell outright. I can pay bank wire any currency, gold, silver any form. PM.

We're at capitulation right now.

With Gox down I feel there's a greater potential for it to grow again given that all the newbies probably haven't moved out to another exchange. Although as soon as it's up it may crash again.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/schermata20130411alle18.png

Mark my words, mark them well. It's gonna be sub-40 at BTC-e in the next five hours.

You keep silent for a whole month and now come back with TA again?

Everything is exactly like in the graph. According to BTC-e(gox has halted trading), we're at stage "FEAR" right now.

Updated graph with fresh values.

This needs a little adjustment.

Every fundamental indicator that I know of suggests that Bitcoin adoption is an exponential growth phenomenon. Anyone who disagrees please do us both a favor and STOP READING HERE and instead supply an argument why adoption isn't exponential.

Now, exponentially growing fundamentals strongly suggest that the mean trendline in the graph that the price reverts to should be exponential, not linear (on a log chart: not flat but at a fixed slope).

The log-scale chart Arepo posted just above shows that so far in 2013 the slope was fixed until the Cyprus-inspired media blitz started just a few weeks ago. Since then it has been curling upward, and I have been warning gradually more loudly that this indicates some froth being introduced to the mix with Bitcoin-clueless money piling in, as the fundamental growth has for the most part remained "merely" exponential.

So where are we now? The 2013 Exponential Trendline I mentioned above has the price at around $70 now, to reach $200 (this time solidly) by early June, $2,000 by autumn, and $10,000 by Christmas. Still silly, crazy fast growth.

We are now still floating about 2.5 times above that price, "cruising for a bruising" back down to that trendline in case of any bad news or just random jitters+goxlag.

Under this exponential interpretation of the OP chart, supposing this rebound is actually a "bull trap," if we skid down to "despair" at the end of April the desparation low should be around $30-50 (since the exponential trendline hits $100 at that time), with a mid-May return to the exponential trendline at about $130, this time soaring* higher with plenty of fundamental backing as the weak hands are really going to be shaken out.

*Slower than post-Cyprus but still crazy fast (EXPOMUTHAFUCKINENTIAL).

-===-

can you say 'overbought' ?

+1

We're in pre-bubble mode. The bubble will have five digits.

This week - above $200
This month - New highs
This Year - BTC >$1000

If this were the case, then why does the "public" section end before the crash? I think we can agree that the general public is far from informed on bitcoin, and the strong presence of "non-professionals" on here is because all "internet nerds" are a tiny niche that know about bitcoin and are more likely to post on forums and so you get an unrealistic representation of the whole population on here.

No that's not correct, a bubble doesn't mean the end of bitcoin it means the end of this crazy run up. The public will learn about it more in the future but it is pretty public now and has been in most major respectable newspapers. I'd have thought theres more non professional investors in bitcoin atm than professional investors based on what I have seen around the forums.

We hardly tapped into institutional investors, and through that alone we can assume we're not at the public stage.

Also, the crash happens after the public phase. Are you trying to say that this is the most the public will ever know about bitcoin? If i went out and asked 100 people about bitcoin, i'd be shocked if more than 1 knew anything about them. I've also spoken with credible economists who have never even heard of it.

I should add that this graph assumes the largest pools of disposable funds are in the hands of the public, and not the institutional investors.

That has changed slightly in recent years.

also argument against OP:  media attention is just starting

Except we did get institutional investors and the public does know. Where do you think the demand flooded in from? Early adopters? "Public" isn't qualified in that graph. So even a 1% exposure could lead to the bubble playing out.

Regardless of who is right I think there's some compelling reading here.

We won't know who's right until after the fact.

+1



Do you people even read the graph? In the background it says the first sell-off is at institutional investors... Sounds about where we're at. And then the crash back to the mean is after the "public" background wording. LOL if you think bitcoin is known by the public.


Edit: This is also assuming this graph has any merit in this new technology... Which it likely doesn't

I buy at 50$ tommorow too.

Well at least bitcointalk is back to normal, no crazy mofo lag anymore. We'll see about the bitcoin, I am definitely thinking it could easily hit $50 again, all it will take is one major holder to sell off today and we will have panic again. I'll wait to buy at $50! (I also might regret this )

I'm sorry but I don't se ANY indications of a "bubble" popping here. If anything, I see a technical issue that caused a panic sell-off.
The fact that SO many accounts are coming into the market only means MORE and MORE money to be added to the system.
That means bulls and speculators, but more people will speculate uptrend.
just my 2cts.

So were at bear trap?

So were you ignoring that "Media Attention" label because it doesn't fit your assumptions or? Plus the "enthusiasm," "greed," yea. Definitely haven't seen any of that around here. $100,000 per BTC definitely isn't "Delusion." People saying bitcoin isn't a bubble because it's something that's never been before, that's not "New Paradigm" either.

What's funny is I actually got caught around that bear trap @ $71.50. Although I might have been part of the sell off leading into it. Who knows. Pretty spot on in my eyes.

No, 266->105 is just the "first sell off"

This chart is valid for every bubble I have ever seen, and I've been following stock and currency markets since around the Asian crisis of 97-98.

I feel like we're going to see some big movement within the next ten hours.

Fixed the graph.

Bitcoin will go into economic textbooks soon  

I still think we're in the midst of the trap. Might go up to $200 still, who knows. Stupid money aplenty around here.

We shall see soon shan't we? I'm going to set some very low bids overnight just incase.

The 175$ "correction" isn't showing on the 6m graph.

You're reading that wrong. This would be bull trap.

One graph is worth a thousand words.

edit: fixed the graph showing 175$ "back to normal"

EDIT2: WE'RE AT FEAR RIGHT NOW