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Topic: It was easy to know the SELL of this week with a simple chart analysis (Read 556 times)

hero member
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Many people want to get big profits immediately when investing in bitcoin, if this is in our minds then we must learn, many people are successful in bitcoin because they invested when bitcoin was not yet popular and of course the risk at that time was bigger than now, and as long as we can be patient then we will be lucky and profit.
Those who are already working as investors certainly know how they will take risks and be patient when investing in certain assets so that they will not think of getting big profits as soon as possible. Even though their basic goal is also looking for a lot of profit, that doesn't mean they will immediately hope for an asset like Bitcoin. And maybe a lot of people you say are those who are new to Bitcoin so their minds are still too short when they want to expect immediate profits in Bitcoin.
I'm with you on this, and in fact, no trader or investor with this mindset will lose their money unless they do not have a good strategy and management. Trading needs us to have alternative sources of income so that we can remove our minds from 'getting rich quickly' through it which is the main source of emotion that makes people lose. And if done this way, one could make a huge amount without even noticing over time.

There is this account I opened with $3000 in February specifically to trade gold. It hit the ATH balance of almost $21,000 this month, which is an ROI of about 700% in just 4 months. For me, I felt the success was slow, but when I realized how difficult it is for others, I continued with my cool approach of not risking much, it preserves trading accounts.

So my question, do you still see price returning to $20K or otherwise happy to buy at $30K, if you missed out on $25K? O did I miss your return to being bullish again at a certain price level?
Thanks for the question. One thing about me is that I'm a dynamic trader and I trade only the trend of the market, and I could decide to trade any time frame today or use multiple time frames which I do often. By this, a lot of signals have been detected after opening this topic and I'd bought and sold the market for good by the guide of the 4H and 1D charts aside from the 1W pattern.

I also partook in the last bullish movement that happened recently. After all, it's about making money irrespective of where the market faces.
legendary
Activity: 1722
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and in my opinion the best thing right now is to buy immediately, if we focus on long-term hold then we have a chance to profit 100x or more but if we make it daily trading then immediately sell when it has a profit of at least 5%.
Imagine those who bought Bitcoin in late March this year, they would be regretting their actions now.

Based on when you wrote this, I'm not sure even sure that's true back then. Bitcoin was only down around -5% from late March prices of $27K to $28K to around $26.5K as of when you made this comment.

I'm referencing this has to me it seems clear a lot of buyers >$25K were actually buying for the long-term, similar to those who bought <$20K. So being down -5% when you plan to hold for years is somewhat irrelevant in the world of Bitcoin, it just means you didn't buy the absolute bottom (which is never necessary either). You can also tell so far based on lack of selling between $25K and $30K for reference sake.

As for your initial TA and now with some hindsight, selling around $26.3K on the basis of price going considerably lower wasn't the worst idea admittedly, as price could have returned to $23K or even $20K etc. My main issue is the lack of "up" signal when Bitcoin broke it's downtrend around $27K. As now there are sellers around $26K that would theoretically be waiting to re-enter the market still.

Overall this kind of reminds me of DataDash, who used to be a very popular YouTuber, but since selling Bitcoin around $24K / $25K last year, and failing (being unwilling) to re-enter again at $25K, looks like another participant who is being left behind. Baring in mind that selling at $25K when price drops to $15K isn't the worst sell either, but failing to buy when price returned to $20K or $25K was (so far) a massive error.

So my question, do you still see price returning to $20K or otherwise happy to buy at $30K, if you missed out on $25K? O did I miss your return to being bullish again at a certain price level?

hero member
Activity: 3164
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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
Get used to the psychology of the market, the market has many conditions that it could follow that will either favour a trend or opposes it. It could make a deeper correction, and it could reverse even as you think it's still correcting. That's why traders should get ready to adjust to any market condition as any market could be short, medium or long-term in trend, and so are corrections too.
Yes, Today Bitcoin's recent surge to 29k has provided strong validation of its resilience, as it managed to climb without encountering any significant rejection along the way. This remarkable performance serves as a testament to the efficacy of technical analysis in understanding and predicting market behavior. I expect Bitcoin to retest May 2023 opening levels and close the CME gap before entering a period of sideways moves.

There may be a small additional suggestion from me here. It is very important not to get involved in shorting Bitcoin based solely on meeting resistance. I have observed many retail traders choose short positions simply because of the prevailing resistance level and bearish sentiment. However, it's important to realize that Bitcoin often behaves the other way around, catching shorter people off guard and causing significant losses. So, Let it shape the Price action Once Bitcoin experiences a slight cooldown.
The fact that we decided not to be okay with all those falls is the thing that makes me the proudest. I mean we are talking about not being able to crash, it tried to crash and we recovered from that level and that's a good thing. I think it's important because it allows us to not be worried about anything like that ever again.

I think it should be considered a bigger and better deal, since we are talking about a much better thing in the end. I know that people are going to be worried about it one way or another and they will wonder if it will crash again and harder this time around. Like a lot of people call this a dead cat bounce already, but that doesn't mean that it didn't bounce, it already did, and if you bought at the bottom then you could have survived.
sr. member
Activity: 882
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Get used to the psychology of the market, the market has many conditions that it could follow that will either favour a trend or opposes it. It could make a deeper correction, and it could reverse even as you think it's still correcting. That's why traders should get ready to adjust to any market condition as any market could be short, medium or long-term in trend, and so are corrections too.

Yes, Today Bitcoin's recent surge to 29k has provided strong validation of its resilience, as it managed to climb without encountering any significant rejection along the way. This remarkable performance serves as a testament to the efficacy of technical analysis in understanding and predicting market behavior. I expect Bitcoin to retest May 2023 opening levels and close the CME gap before entering a period of sideways moves.

There may be a small additional suggestion from me here. It is very important not to get involved in shorting Bitcoin based solely on meeting resistance. I have observed many retail traders choose short positions simply because of the prevailing resistance level and bearish sentiment. However, it's important to realize that Bitcoin often behaves the other way around, catching shorter people off guard and causing significant losses. So, Let it shape the Price action Once Bitcoin experiences a slight cooldown.




legendary
Activity: 2716
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Many people want to get big profits immediately when investing in bitcoin, if this is in our minds then we must learn, many people are successful in bitcoin because they invested when bitcoin was not yet popular and of course the risk at that time was bigger than now, and as long as we can be patient then we will be lucky and profit.
Those who are already working as investors certainly know how they will take risks and be patient when investing in certain assets so that they will not think of getting big profits as soon as possible. Even though their basic goal is also looking for a lot of profit, that doesn't mean they will immediately hope for an asset like Bitcoin. And maybe a lot of people you say are those who are new to Bitcoin so their minds are still too short when they want to expect immediate profits in Bitcoin.
copper member
Activity: 2156
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Part of AOBT - English Translator to Indonesia
One thing I have noticed about the technical analysis, particularly on the long-term disposition is that, no matter what, the market tends to align for the pattern for it to be realized. Surprisingly, even the news and economic data would work in favour of that direction in most cases.
Fundamental is first meaning yeah some news can change direction or made the technical analysis faster move to the target. Since news is unpredictable we can only predict the technical analysis.

Tho even tho are good on technical news always can beat the market  Grin Especially the US news like interest rate or like the SEC  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 641
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
It seems that profit is very easy if we think it's easy, unfortunately many people are too afraid to buy for fear that the price will go down, and in my opinion the best thing right now is to buy immediately, if we focus on long-term hold then we have a chance to profit 100x or more but if we make it daily trading then immediately sell when it has a profit of at least 5%.

And I think the analysis is still valid up to this point, with the recent SEC with hunt against exchanges, we've seen the price going down to as low as $25k, in which the graph being drawn up by the OP can't be seen along that line.

So good for him, if he was able to sell because of this analysis and take the profits. Although I would say that I did sell around first week of April, not because I think it's the perfect time, but I needed some money for emergency purposes and looking back, I would say that I timing the market right as well as it is way above what the current price. But I have to get it back right away though, some DCA to continue stacking sats.
Like you, I have been following the pattern till today, it's still very much valid and might remain like this in months as the monthly chart confirms a bearish trend too. It was delayed though, this is normal in some market conditions, that's why it's always good to be patient with your view, especially when there is no viable opposite pattern formed to counter your expectation.

Well the bearish already started again from the SEC news.
Daily candle Bitcoin retest at 26K level and that is 200 EMA and also previous support hope the news is clear and rebound from that
One thing I have noticed about the technical analysis, particularly on the long-term disposition is that, no matter what, the market tends to align for the pattern for it to be realized. Surprisingly, even the news and economic data would work in favour of that direction in most cases.
copper member
Activity: 2156
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Part of AOBT - English Translator to Indonesia
Well the bearish already started again from the SEC news.

Daily candle Bitcoin retest at 26K level and that is 200 EMA and also previous support hope the news is clear and rebound from that

member
Activity: 1050
Merit: 10
Many people want to get big profits immediately when investing in bitcoin, if this is in our minds then we must learn, many people are successful in bitcoin because they invested when bitcoin was not yet popular and of course the risk at that time was bigger than now, and as long as we can be patient then we will be lucky and profit.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1655
It seems that profit is very easy if we think it's easy, unfortunately many people are too afraid to buy for fear that the price will go down, and in my opinion the best thing right now is to buy immediately, if we focus on long-term hold then we have a chance to profit 100x or more but if we make it daily trading then immediately sell when it has a profit of at least 5%.

And I think the analysis is still valid up to this point, with the recent SEC with hunt against exchanges, we've seen the price going down to as low as $25k, in which the graph being drawn up by the OP can't be seen along that line.

So good for him, if he was able to sell because of this analysis and take the profits. Although I would say that I did sell around first week of April, not because I think it's the perfect time, but I needed some money for emergency purposes and looking back, I would say that I timing the market right as well as it is way above what the current price. But I have to get it back right away though, some DCA to continue stacking sats.
member
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Enterapp

This could be painful seeing how your investment is poorly performing.

Yes, everyone has different views, it's that's normal. Well, the Market is retesting the resistance level that was previously broken in the "Falling Wedge" pattern. If price manages to get that level to turn into support, this is considered a positive (bullish) event for Ethereum and the altcoin market as a whole. This could indicate a possible increase in the price of Ethereum and other altcoins. this is what it looks like today.
hero member
Activity: 826
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
It seems that profit is very easy if we think it's easy, unfortunately many people are too afraid to buy for fear that the price will go down
Trading is not easy my friend, but when we train well, it might be easy, and after this, we can work on our emotions. At times, there are so easy patterns that would present themselves to us, and if we are bold enough to take the chances, it might be worth good fortune within a short while.

and in my opinion the best thing right now is to buy immediately, if we focus on long-term hold then we have a chance to profit 100x or more but if we make it daily trading then immediately sell when it has a profit of at least 5%.
I will kick against this, it's not good to be a blind trader or holder, we should rather be speculative to be sure of what we are doing. Imagine those who bought Bitcoin in late March this year, they would be regretting their actions now. Bitcoin is to be bought at the lowest possible price, and we can get to know this through a series of analyses, not just jumping on a bear market unknowingly.

This could be painful seeing how your investment is poorly performing.
sr. member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 255
It seems that profit is very easy if we think it's easy, unfortunately many people are too afraid to buy for fear that the price will go down, and in my opinion the best thing right now is to buy immediately, if we focus on long-term hold then we have a chance to profit 100x or more but if we make it daily trading then immediately sell when it has a profit of at least 5%.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 560
The current network crisis obviously will affect the bitcoin market negatively especially when this problem is  an elongated.

But to my greatest surprise, nothing was affected by this issue of bitcoin tokenization with the use of ordinals inscription, has though many had thought things would have gone wrong so badly through this but it bever happen as a result of such, but since you made it clear and point blank that if it's an elongated one, there might be possible challenges with the bitcoin network, and now things were already at peace even though they might not have been as before, but I here have been a rapid positive change.

Don’t just focus on the current situation of the market. Instead, they compare present price movements with historical data to give their technical analysis that all-important credibility. the accuracy and promptness of the figures gotten from price trackers have significant bearings on the market analysis for day traders but for long term its just obsolete and I can't conclude anything with the candles from past.

Just as i always do when it comes to how i make my feasibility study, i take in considerable consultations from many angles and relate them to the past events on how bitcoin has been before concluding on my final view, yet sometimes we may not be still accurate about it.
hero member
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
No hate but it's always easy to draw a line on a chart and say I go it right. Every analysis seems like correct on hindsight and after the fact. I can also draw a line on a chart and tell that I knew it would happen. Complete bs right?
None was suspected as well, and it's true that one could just check the past deeds of the market and make drawings that would make it looks as if he did perfect work. Well, I pass that, I live inside the market and I analyze the market at least 15 times in a single day. This is not a joke as I analyze mostly the 4H, 1D and 1W, so I don't see how possible that pattern could slip through my finger.

Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.

In any case, no one can predict accurately, but in the event of the worst scenario, it will be a good point to reaccumulate more bitcoin for those who missed the cheap prices. We still have almost a full year ahead of Halving, as everyone expects a big rise, so I think it is a good opportunity.
I think you did a good job there, the market was able to slip below $26,000 after then and has not been able to breach below $25,000. But as brilliant as that is, mine is still valid as well as the market stays below my trendline resistance, and is getting close to $26,000 already, which makes my speculation still active for the test of below $20,000.

That's because ultimately no traders or investors ever know how far a bearish correction will go, as it's impossible to "know" these things  Wink
Now, you didn't speak like a true trader, viable speculation is real and what I do daily is a testimony to it. I trade many assets and I can tell you that above 85% of my trading commands are right. This means that what you don't know will always be a mystery to you just like it amazes you now. It's all about learning and constant practice through drawings and the use of other technical analyses that are not dealing with indicators like you often used. Try this, then you improved on your targets which seems surprising even as a few traders achieved regularly.

And since no one is a witch here, it doesn't mean it must be 100% accurate, after all, we are just speculating.

I never understand the mentality of not wanting a deeper correction during uptrends, it makes no sense to me. The deeper the correction with a strong reversal the more room price has to go to the upside, similar to the $20K correction. Ideally people do "freak out", this would be ideal, as the fear in the market will be a good signal for further investment and trading to the upside, rather than remaining overly bullish.
Get used to the psychology of the market, the market has many conditions that it could follow that will either favour a trend or opposes it. It could make a deeper correction, and it could reverse even as you think it's still correcting. That's why traders should get ready to adjust to any market condition as any market could be short, medium or long-term in trend, and so are corrections too.
sr. member
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I didn't flinch a bit since I started selling Bitcoin on Monday. This is not because I often make accurate analyses but because of the high assurance I have on the selling for the week. And as my simple chart reveals, only price action, trendline and RSI did the trick and was a good success.

It's worth mentioning that Bitcoin has been dramatic after hitting the year-high of $30934 in April. I was able to notice a barrier at that time, which made me draw the simple trendline since the 16th of April, and ever since then the market was unable to breach the level higher and has been a guide for my weekly speculations.

I retrained from taking any position when the price action was positive under the trendline, particularly last week when the market was ranging. This happens until last week's candle closed negative below the trendline and a new negative price action was hence activated, which coupled with the confirmation of the weekly chart's RSI.

upload img


When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.



No hate but it's always easy to draw a line on a chart and say I go it right. Every analysis seems like correct on hindsight and after the fact. I can also draw a line on a chart and tell that I knew it would happen. Complete bs right?
Show the result. This may serve as a reminder that when you are in the market, the goal is not to be right. The goal is to make money. How much % did you make? or did you just make your self believe that you did get it right.

Learn to differentiate "knowing" where the price is going to actually do "trading" and make money out of the market.
Again, drop your ego. Stop being right, aim to make money.
sr. member
Activity: 882
Merit: 403
Welp, it's nice that your TA worked out for you and that you find it easy to know when to sell. As for me though, I still can't say I'm winning always on my trades be it on bitcoin or altcoins. I still struggle from time to time and make bad trades since in some cases, the indicators I use on one trade along with the strategy sometimes do not work on other trades, not to mention the confusing patterns that don't even work out that often. I guess I am still finding my sweet combination of indicators, time frames etc.
legendary
Activity: 2534
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There is nothing easy in trading, especially when it comes to analysis using charts and especially in Bitcoin trading.
No, it was easy to draw speculation based on the current situation and price trend but the problem is we really don't know what will happen next that is why all of these things usually fail. That is why I don't consider trading analysis to be too easy, sometimes it was a gamble, and sometimes I used my instinct as well. We can never have assurance in trading but we really have the chance to earn if we are good at analyzing the market trend. And most of all, I don't buy BTC when it was at its peak, I'd rather wait to have some corrections and take advantage of it.
Just as much you need to use the knowledge and skills you have accumulated over the years, your experience is also incredibly important, as you can easily remember a time in which the market moved in a certain way and this tells you that something is about to happen before it is reflected on the charts, that experience is priceless and it can be the difference between obtaining massive losses or suffering tremendous losses, which is one of the reasons why trading is so hard and difficult to master.
hero member
Activity: 3010
Merit: 666
There is nothing easy in trading, especially when it comes to analysis using charts and especially in Bitcoin trading.
No, it was easy to draw speculation based on the current situation and price trend but the problem is we really don't know what will happen next that is why all of these things usually fail. That is why I don't consider trading analysis to be too easy, sometimes it was a gamble, and sometimes I used my instinct as well. We can never have assurance in trading but we really have the chance to earn if we are good at analyzing the market trend. And most of all, I don't buy BTC when it was at its peak, I'd rather wait to have some corrections and take advantage of it.
hero member
Activity: 1834
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upload img


When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.
We looking at this from the weekly which did look bearish on this time line, but if we use multi time frame analysis we shall discover that on lower timeframes markets are actually bullish on say the 4 hour or hourly and this is what am seeing, especially that there was a break of structure on the higher timeframe , a pull back is expected and this is whats expected in the coming weeks as we counter trade.

But if you ask when the bearish will end, no one will know, even the pro traders don't know
Market direction can be known using technical analysis and this way we get to know the market direction, but because  of external  factors such as new regulations,  political influence etc these will always affect the market direction and not allow us to be always right.
legendary
Activity: 2576
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Ofcourse it would be easy to draw conclusions, and speculate the price movement but problem is, no one really knows wht will be the behvior in each day. There are sudden crash with the market price even if most of the people in this industry are expecting for a pump. One reason? Manipulation created by big investors in this industry. Once they decide to sell, small investors would be moved as well in a particular direction either up or down.
I don't think it will go down to 25k anyhow, it is understandable that we have already gone down to 27k levels but that's about it, we are not going down anymore and the price will be what it is and it is not going to change anytime soon. I hope that it does, but I do not think that it will change anytime soon.

We are going to see the price stay here for a while and then it will start going back up again and that will be a lovely period, we are going to be quite happy about that. I understand that people may not be happy about not going down anymore because they would like to buy cheap again so they can sell higher, but the reality is that we are not going to see that happen anytime soon, we are going to see it move a lot higher from here without going down.

I am one of those people waiting for bitcoin to drop further while many hope it will rise again. Not only you but many people believe that bitcoin won't be able to break $25k, but in the end, no one can be sure and it's all just everyone's hope, no one has proof. For my part, I still believe there will be a major correction this year or early 2024, and we still have a chance to buy bitcoin cheaper than it is now, although I'm not sure about that either. But investment is like that, each person will have a different perspective and vision, and only time will answer all.
If we would base from previous charts, there would be first a massive price correction before the actual uptrend occur. Problem is that no one knows when will it occur. We are getting closer to the next halving and this is why there is a mixed expectancy of market price movements. Only time will answer indeed.
legendary
Activity: 2338
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zknodes.org
The current network crisis obviously will affect the bitcoin market negatively especially when this problem is  an elongated. Don’t just focus on the current situation of the market. Instead, they compare present price movements with historical data to give their technical analysis that all-important credibility. the accuracy and promptness of the figures gotten from price trackers have significant bearings on the market analysis for day traders but for long term its just obsolete and I can't conclude anything with the candles from past.
But in the past there were also similar problems when the Bitcoin network crashed and the gass fee rose high. When long-term analysis using past historical data is outdated, then there is no ultimate guidance. But maybe only a few percent will affect obsolete data data. Bitcoin continues to evolve and the science of analysis is also evolving. Indeed, there will be no accurate analysis, all have weaknesses. several cycles have been passed and soon there will be a 4th cycle and this will be a new history for bitcoin.
hero member
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I don't think it will go down to 25k anyhow, it is understandable that we have already gone down to 27k levels but that's about it, we are not going down anymore and the price will be what it is and it is not going to change anytime soon. I hope that it does, but I do not think that it will change anytime soon.

We are going to see the price stay here for a while and then it will start going back up again and that will be a lovely period, we are going to be quite happy about that. I understand that people may not be happy about not going down anymore because they would like to buy cheap again so they can sell higher, but the reality is that we are not going to see that happen anytime soon, we are going to see it move a lot higher from here without going down.

I am one of those people waiting for bitcoin to drop further while many hope it will rise again. Not only you but many people believe that bitcoin won't be able to break $25k, but in the end, no one can be sure and it's all just everyone's hope, no one has proof. For my part, I still believe there will be a major correction this year or early 2024, and we still have a chance to buy bitcoin cheaper than it is now, although I'm not sure about that either. But investment is like that, each person will have a different perspective and vision, and only time will answer all.
hero member
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
But if you ask when the bearish will end, no one will know, even the pro traders don't know, especially now the bitcoin price has not shown any signs of increasing high.

That's because ultimately no traders or investors ever know how far a bearish correction will go, as it's impossible to "know" these things  Wink

The only thing speculators can do is assess how far the correction is most likely to go, based on probability and past performance. For example in March this was $20K, widely accepted by many bullish participants in the market, so unsurprisingly price reversed strong from this level. Right now many think it's around $25K, personally I think it's more like $23K or somewhere in between. Not $26K or $27K.
And speculators and traders can only try to enter the market and make a profit. Even though market conditions are still like this, where prices are still going up and down every day, it is still being used for those who want to make a profit but it requires more in-depth analysis to find gaps to enter the market. This month the price is still around $26k and I suspect it will be like this until the end of this month but next month, there could be a good price move from bitcoin so it could go back to $27k and even reach $30k. So we can only prepare ourselves for the next high price while considering continuing the DCA if your target is to sell bitcoin at more than $60k.

But let's hope the current price doesn't drop below $26k again because there are people who will freak out for a second because of that.

I never understand the mentality of not wanting a deeper correction during uptrends, it makes no sense to me. The deeper the correction with a strong reversal the more room price has to go to the upside, similar to the $20K correction. Ideally people do "freak out", this would be ideal, as the fear in the market will be a good signal for further investment and trading to the upside, rather than remaining overly bullish.
That's only natural because they have bought bitcoin at a high price, for example, above $ 30k so when the price drops drastically, like now, they are never ready, even if it is a golden opportunity to buy bitcoin at a low price. Those people shouldn't panic but instead see it as an opportunity where it won't come again when the bitcoin price has started its long rally.
legendary
Activity: 2086
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I don't think it will go down to 25k anyhow, it is understandable that we have already gone down to 27k levels but that's about it, we are not going down anymore and the price will be what it is and it is not going to change anytime soon. I hope that it does, but I do not think that it will change anytime soon.

We are going to see the price stay here for a while and then it will start going back up again and that will be a lovely period, we are going to be quite happy about that. I understand that people may not be happy about not going down anymore because they would like to buy cheap again so they can sell higher, but the reality is that we are not going to see that happen anytime soon, we are going to see it move a lot higher from here without going down.
I agree with most of this, I mean the situation right now doesn't look like there is a big chance that we will change anything anytime soon, it will probably stay like this and not go down. After staying like this for a while, it will go up a lot more and the price will skyrocket. People are aware of this, the price will go up because there is a chance that we are going to end up with a bit of a problem when the time comes and that's the reality.

I understand that it may not be anything quick just yet, but it will happen with time because next year we are going to have the halving and that means we are going to end up with something that will be a bit of a difference compared to this year and that's the life we are going to see.
legendary
Activity: 2534
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I don't think it will go down to 25k anyhow, it is understandable that we have already gone down to 27k levels but that's about it, we are not going down anymore and the price will be what it is and it is not going to change anytime soon. I hope that it does, but I do not think that it will change anytime soon.

We are going to see the price stay here for a while and then it will start going back up again and that will be a lovely period, we are going to be quite happy about that. I understand that people may not be happy about not going down anymore because they would like to buy cheap again so they can sell higher, but the reality is that we are not going to see that happen anytime soon, we are going to see it move a lot higher from here without going down.
I also forecast that the price of bitcoin is going to remain close to the current level for some time, after all we are still far away from the halving so we cannot expect the price to go up in a sustained manner unless there was a fundamental reason for the increase on the demand, however we have left the bear market behind as well and as such a sharp decrease on the price does not seem to be on the cards either, and this means that most likely the price will range for weeks or months around the current level.
legendary
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I don't think it will go down to 25k anyhow, it is understandable that we have already gone down to 27k levels but that's about it, we are not going down anymore and the price will be what it is and it is not going to change anytime soon. I hope that it does, but I do not think that it will change anytime soon.

We are going to see the price stay here for a while and then it will start going back up again and that will be a lovely period, we are going to be quite happy about that. I understand that people may not be happy about not going down anymore because they would like to buy cheap again so they can sell higher, but the reality is that we are not going to see that happen anytime soon, we are going to see it move a lot higher from here without going down.
legendary
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But if you ask when the bearish will end, no one will know, even the pro traders don't know, especially now the bitcoin price has not shown any signs of increasing high.

That's because ultimately no traders or investors ever know how far a bearish correction will go, as it's impossible to "know" these things  Wink

The only thing speculators can do is assess how far the correction is most likely to go, based on probability and past performance. For example in March this was $20K, widely accepted by many bullish participants in the market, so unsurprisingly price reversed strong from this level. Right now many think it's around $25K, personally I think it's more like $23K or somewhere in between. Not $26K or $27K.

But let's hope the current price doesn't drop below $26k again because there are people who will freak out for a second because of that.

I never understand the mentality of not wanting a deeper correction during uptrends, it makes no sense to me. The deeper the correction with a strong reversal the more room price has to go to the upside, similar to the $20K correction. Ideally people do "freak out", this would be ideal, as the fear in the market will be a good signal for further investment and trading to the upside, rather than remaining overly bullish.
hero member
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Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.
I agree with this. It is possible that the 25k support point is acceptable based on what we are seeing right now in the market and the lowest price may be 20k in May I think if it continues to decline or there is no change leading to an increase.

In any case, no one can predict accurately, but in the event of the worst scenario, it will be a good point to reaccumulate more bitcoin for those who missed the cheap prices. We still have almost a full year ahead of Halving, as everyone expects a big rise, so I think it is a good opportunity.
At the point of providing predictions about prices, yes no one can give them accurately. With the current state of the market price for Bitcoin or in recent months this is a good opportunity to buy. As you said, good points to re-accumulate more if a bad scenario occurs. Can not afford in large quantities, so it can be in small quantities.
hero member
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For people who analyze a lot, they know when to buy and sell but not for people who follow what others say because they get confused when the market moves.

But if you ask when the bearish will end, no one will know, even the pro traders don't know, especially now the bitcoin price has not shown any signs of increasing high. But let's hope the current price doesn't drop below $26k again because there are people who will freak out for a second because of that. And hopefully, the price support can still withstand current market conditions and not fall deeper.
hero member
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After the price Bounce at $25.8k, and head up to kissed $27.9k and got rejected back to $26k, the price went back up again and got a second rejection at $27.485k, from my own analysis this confirms to me that the next level we are likely going to tap into is the $25.8k where we got the initial bounce to the up side and failure for the Bulls to push the price back up from that level, I see a price melt down towards $25k-$24.5k
sr. member
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There is nothing easy in trading, especially when it comes to analysis using charts and especially in Bitcoin trading. But let me give my view on the Bitcoin situation. For now I believe that the resistance point of Bitcoin is at USD 30/31K and support at USD 22/24K. For Bitcoin's position in the next few months it seems that it will still be sideways, because so far there has been no positive news pushing Bitcoin, but the opportunity for Bitcoin to break through the resistance point is still there this year and I'm really waiting for that moment to happen. And with the news that there will be a halving next year it will strengthen the price of Bitcoin even more and maybe it will reach $ 40K USD next year.
sr. member
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The current network crisis obviously will affect the bitcoin market negatively especially when this problem is  an elongated. Don’t just focus on the current situation of the market. Instead, they compare present price movements with historical data to give their technical analysis that all-important credibility. the accuracy and promptness of the figures gotten from price trackers have significant bearings on the market analysis for day traders but for long term its just obsolete and I can't conclude anything with the candles from past.
hero member
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Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.
In any case, no one can predict accurately, but in the event of the worst scenario, it will be a good point to reaccumulate more bitcoin for those who missed the cheap prices. We still have almost a full year ahead of Halving, as everyone expects a big rise, so I think it is a good opportunity.

$25,000 is the target for my as well, j don't think Bitcoin will fall below that price. There's a very strong support at that level and it'll take more than just a market correction for the support at that level to be broken and if it does get broken, I'll keep buying more.

I'm not interested in knowing the weekly sell price as I'm not interested in selling and no one should be selling in loss, the market has already fallen in the past week so there no reasonable reason behind selling at this point unless you feel there's more fall coming.

At this stage of the market, I believe the best strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin instead of selling every dio should be seen as an opportunity to keep buying more bitcoin, altcoins are what you should be selling because they will  take a major hit if Bitcoin dips further.
hero member
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I didn't flinch a bit since I started selling Bitcoin on Monday. This is not because I often make accurate analyses but because of the high assurance I have on the selling for the week. And as my simple chart reveals, only price action, trendline and RSI did the trick and was a good success.
Short term trading may pay off but it is important to talk about how you can analyze the market on a daily basis. This work is complicated when you are unable to pay attention to market conditions and forecasts are needed for today, tomorrow and so on. That's why not many people can analyze bitcoin in the short term because they talk about price fluctuations that can go down today and up again tomorrow, so there are certain difficulties for those who don't have a strong analysis.

In conclusion it depends on how one can take advantage of the pattern and when people choose the same path as you, then the power of analysis is needed and they also have to be able to monitor the market at all times. As long as you are confident and not worried about the long and short term, this is only talking about utilization and more importantly how the investment you make can turn a profit.
sr. member
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Short term price calls are always so hard to get right regularly. That's why I trade after long term holds only. As bitcoin still reacts to 4 year halving cycles it is a lot easier to know what to do & when, rather than trying to follow lines on a chart & different models. Of course it’s fine to take advice & bits of info from different models but short term trading is very easy to get rekt. To conclude, no selling until a year after the halving, buying now is fine.
Those who would like to sell will definitely have to sell their Bitcoin without looking at the chart.
Probably it was not the question of when is the right to sell but the question is if we care about doing this or not. If we don't, then it is not necessary to look at the market trend but rather sell them instantly. But for those who think that Bitcoin will grow after correction will certainly hold and are willing to wait for the perfect price.
"Sell if we can and hold if we really wanted to grow our investment".
hero member
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I think your expectation is that the price will have to further drop from $26,333 to $19k from the trend line you show and RSI also confirming the drop with the position of your line but what happens if the result you expect change and instead of coming down it got a strong price action to revisit $31k to further move upward or dont you think a correction can change within little time? This is about speculation and don't have guarantee it will happen like you see on it. There is resistant that pull price down it can go another time for retaste, so watch and don't be carefree.

If that is the case then his TA will be invalidated  and so it will form a new trend and we might not see $19k based on his analysis.

But still, the price is fluctuating and after that huge pump we have to like $31k as the OP said, now we are down to $27k and maybe the biggest reasons is the whole ordinal inscriptions and brc-20 token that pushes the transaction fees so high right now.

So his TA is could still happen and we might see $19k. And in any case, it's a good time to buy again for us who waited for the price to at least go ~$20k to enter again.
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upload img


When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.


This is where it will lead to if we asses the price of BTC with the help of technical analysis and it doesn't necessarily has to follow the way we draw because there are also other factors is affecting the price now especially the ordinals which clogged the mempool and price went to crazy high for weeks and lasting till now which is the main reason why we can see the price of BTC is declining.

Technical analysis is good way to analyse the price track for short term especially for day traders but for long term its just obsolete and I can't conclude anything with the candles from past.
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I think your expectation is that the price will have to further drop from $26,333 to $19k from the trend line you show and RSI also confirming the drop with the position of your line but what happens if the result you expect change and instead of coming down it got a strong price action to revisit $31k to further move upward or dont you think a correction can change within little time? This is about speculation and don't have guarantee it will happen like you see on it. There is resistant that pull price down it can go another time for retaste, so watch and don't be carefree.
hero member
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I'm still in the stage of waiting for Bitcoin price to improve again and I'm also still trying to buy more Bitcoin. I see we are still given the opportunity to buy bitcoin because bearish is still happening in the market. And this time, the bears made the price decline even deeper.

And I have also sold some of my satoshis before and plan to buy them again at a lower price. And if the price does drop again next week, we can use that to our advantage.

But it's not difficult to determine when we can sell because it depends on us. But if we really need money to make ends meet, we will not think long about selling Bitcoin at the present or later price and will sell it immediately.
It is always better to sell bitcoin at a best value. We can be able to wait maybe because we are just an investor but for the trader, they can sell at a much earlier time. Investors are also continuously buying and stacking more bitcoins while for the traders, they can just buy smaller portions for a while. This dip is not really for us old timers because we already bought some coins before but it is for the newbies.

There are still newbies who feel confident investing when the price is rising than when it is falling. For the people who need money, some will think properly if they will sell now or wait. They might look for other options as well, only for them to not sell their bitcoins.
sr. member
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They are all waiting for that $12k price but i think $20k will be the lowest price for this down trend, just take it or leave it. Bitcoin is down, many are still wondering for the real bottom and i guess doing DCA right now is a good idea, hard to tell where the price is heading actually. TA might tells us a strong support, but then again it can still break so be cautious and know when to buy and sell.

I am in doubt that the Bitcoin market will touch $20k, I also think that the market will start to recover since the problem with TX fee is somehow diminishing.  This may change the bearish sentiment into bullish because transacting with Bitcoin will go back to normal again.  But in case it did @OP would benefits a lot in this scenario since he can reaccumulate his holdings and will have a better position and more holdings assuming he shorted and use both the fund and profit to reaccumulate Bitcoin if ever it dips more.
sr. member
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Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.
I agree it's the next strong support as well but it isn't impossible if we can hit that long wick at $19k, I don't really doubt that scenario. The huge shorters are aiming at $12k but that's the unlikely support I am doubting although I won't hate that it's juicy to have that kind of price again.
They are all waiting for that $12k price but i think $20k will be the lowest price for this down trend, just take it or leave it. Bitcoin is down, many are still wondering for the real bottom and i guess doing DCA right now is a good idea, hard to tell where the price is heading actually. TA might tells us a strong support, but then again it can still break so be cautious and know when to buy and sell.
legendary
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Short term price calls are always so hard to get right regularly. That's why I trade after long term holds only. As bitcoin still reacts to 4 year halving cycles it is a lot easier to know what to do & when, rather than trying to follow lines on a chart & different models. Of course it’s fine to take advice & bits of info from different models but short term trading is very easy to get rekt. To conclude, no selling until a year after the halving, buying now is fine.
hero member
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Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.
I agree it's the next strong support as well but it isn't impossible if we can hit that long wick at $19k, I don't really doubt that scenario. The huge shorters are aiming at $12k but that's the unlikely support I am doubting although I won't hate that it's juicy to have that kind of price again.
legendary
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Most likely the next strong support point will be at 25k, I don't expect the price to drop to $19,501 for the time being at least.

In any case, no one can predict accurately, but in the event of the worst scenario, it will be a good point to reaccumulate more bitcoin for those who missed the cheap prices. We still have almost a full year ahead of Halving, as everyone expects a big rise, so I think it is a good opportunity.
legendary
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The previous technical analysis missed another factor, which is transaction fees. It has risen sharply in the previous days, which will force anyone who wants to buy or sell to think about stopping it for a week or two until things improve a little. It is also a profit for the miners, as the blocks are now almost full, which It means more profits, all of which will put pressure on the price to move down a little below the $30,000 levels on average for the coming weeks.
Returning to less than $19,000 is currently excluded, so we will remain between 22,000 and 29,000 for the coming weeks, most likely.

Binance halts bitcoin withdrawals twice in a day,

I don't think it's smart to sell at $27K  as a bearish position in an uptrend.
hero member
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I'm still in the stage of waiting for Bitcoin price to improve again and I'm also still trying to buy more Bitcoin. I see we are still given the opportunity to buy bitcoin because bearish is still happening in the market. And this time, the bears made the price decline even deeper.

And I have also sold some of my satoshis before and plan to buy them again at a lower price. And if the price does drop again next week, we can use that to our advantage.

But it's not difficult to determine when we can sell because it depends on us. But if we really need money to make ends meet, we will not think long about selling Bitcoin at the present or later price and will sell it immediately.
hero member
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That's good if you've sold before the plummet and that's really gonna give you some pride on it. Well, keep on doing a good job and now you'll be looking for a nice reentry anytime from now on.

We're not always accurate when we predict the market with the chart analysis(TA) and we have to look also the side of fundamentals. Well, right now I guess that the fees have been also stopping this trend of plummeting.

And that's because the transactions have been dropping as well but it seems that the fees have gone low and this will make the demand higher again. We will see.
legendary
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I still don’t think we topped for the year. It was a slow grind up which I can see it continue until 40K or So. Why we dumped today might be due to Binance leaving Canada. It’s not a large market but it shows how regulations are cracking down. And this leads to Binance eventually leaving the US most likely.

We also got issues with the debt ceiling and there is still inflation and the rate hikes. Way too many issues going around to pick a top but I still think we will grind up higher and maybe top in Summer or Fall.
sr. member
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I didn't flinch a bit since I started selling Bitcoin on Monday. This is not because I often make accurate analyses but because of the high assurance I have on the selling for the week. And as my simple chart reveals, only price action, trendline and RSI did the trick and was a good success.

Not only TA shows the sign of that selling is a good option for trading but fundamentally, looking at the current state of Bitcoin transaction, the congested network and the high fee simply shouts short trading.  The current network crisis obviously will affect the bitcoin market negatively especially when this problem is prolonged.  We might see the price of Bitcoin plummeting in the following days.


When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.

The scenario is possible looking at how the developer is taking too long to discuss the possible solution to these Bitcoin NFT transactions. The longer the network congestion and transaction increase stay, the lower the demand for Bitcoin will be plus the bearish sentiment that can lurk the market due to disappointed holders.
legendary
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The problem is your downtrend line is simply based on the last few weekly candles, with a coincidental connection to ATH. As you know based on your previous analysis, Bitcoin has already broken out of it's long-term downtrend based on it's resistance trend, even re-testing it as support around $20K. As for why the price has been declining in recent weeks? Because price reached the resistance zone around $30K, not much else.

As for whether the most recent breakdown from $27K was a good selling opportunity? I'm not so convinced. Already today price is bouncing from the 200 Week MA around $26.1K and therefore we may not see a re-test of even $25K, let alone lower levels. Of course the real test will be getting back above $27K that could act as resistance, as well as $28K that is now distribution, but overall selling a breakdown of $27K was never clear-cut as a bearish position, but instead risky in an uptrend. The problem generally right now for the bears is that while $27K was a support that was broken, there is still support nearby around $25K to $26K.

And if Bitcoin get's above these crucial levels, it could easily melt faces against and liquidate most of the bears who are targeting $15K-20K levels, that I personally think is way too optimistic.
legendary
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When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.

Not a really fan on TA but seeing these kind of analysis and  point out then it could possibly happen and now we are really that already playing around 25k+ and if its gets worst then 19k would be probable but i do believe that it would really be still needing some kicked up news or catalyst which would push up down the price even way more lower. We arent all aware on whats the cause on the current decline of price but one things for sure that this one would be connecting with the current high fees or that BRC but here's another one.

Bitcoin Price Plummets to $26,200, Nearing $25k Mark as Worried Investors Seek Catalysts: Is BTC Destined to Hit $20k? Report
https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/bitcoin-price-plummets-to-26200-nearing-25k-mark-as-worried-investors-seek-catalysts-is-btc-destined-to-hit-20k-report/

Possible? Yes or No. We do know that fundamentals could really be that significant sometime.  Tongue
hero member
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Bitcoin price speculation is one of the hardest jobs in stock. Exchange analysis and for that bitcoin volatility, have allowed everyone to take advantage of DCA market accumulation which grants most investors who can rightly speculate the market to make constant gains from the market.

But we must note that the year is still in its first quarter, And before we make a conclusion on the price ATH price of Bitcoin stamping it at 30900 we should note that there are still possibilities of Bitcoin reaching another all-time high that will be above the last 30k+.
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I didn't flinch a bit since I started selling Bitcoin on Monday. This is not because I often make accurate analyses but because of the high assurance I have on the selling for the week. And as my simple chart reveals, only price action, trendline and RSI did the trick and was a good success.

It's worth mentioning that Bitcoin has been dramatic after hitting the year-high of $30934 in April. I was able to notice a barrier at that time, which made me draw the simple trendline since the 16th of April, and ever since then the market was unable to breach the level higher and has been a guide for my weekly speculations.

I retrained from taking any position when the price action was positive under the trendline, particularly last week when the market was ranging. This happens until last week's candle closed negative below the trendline and a new negative price action was hence activated, which coupled with the confirmation of the weekly chart's RSI.

upload img


When will the bearish bias last?

That I can't say for sure, but as a trend trader, I see further selling of Bitcoin in the near term and the $19,501 (low of March) is the only immediate noticeable target on the weekly chart.

Tell me your opinion about this and the current situation of Bitcoin from your angle.

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