Topic: Italy is now locked down for COVID19, other country will do the same soon?! (Read 710 times)

Weekly update, a good one!
Today is the 1st day when the number of new infected is smaller than died+healed.

This means that the peak finally has been reached BUT yesterday was Sunday and on Sunday a smaller amount of swabs (IDK if is the right term) are analyzed. (15-20k).

If tomorrow and the day after the trend will be the same we can say "the peak is now passed".


Just yesterday was the 2-month anniversary of the 1st case discovered in Italy.

Hope you're doing okay out there. Here in the UK we likely have another month (at least) of lockdown.

There are definitely encouraging signs coming from Italy. Active cases may not have peaked because this metric will lag behind new cases - because people who have contracted the virus then have it for a period of time, so to an extent this is cumulative. The drop in new cases however looks promising, with March 21 a possible peak. It is another good sign that even with increased testing, new cases are not rising. There may perhaps be a delay in reporting because of Easter, but if so this should become apparent in the next couple of days. I would say we can be cautiously optimistic that Italy is winning in this initial battle against the virus. We just have to remember this is initial; with no vaccine yet available, in every country the longer fight is far from over.


_{https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/}

Hello just an update on the situation.

The curve of the overall case is increasing with a +2.5-3% daily AVG.
The curve of deaths is decreasing.
Tests are increasing.
The curve of healing is increasing.
The curve of critical cases is decreasing.

Lockdown extended to 03 May 2020.

Peak not reached yet.

Just to update on this, the latest data for Italy is below.
Whilst the top chart does suggest that the curve is indeed flattening, we have to remember that this is a linear scale chart which is arguably not the most informative way to present data on a pandemic that spreads exponentially. I would suggest that the lower chart provides more compelling evidence.

The signs do indeed look encouraging. Presumably once the peak really fades, then Italy will head into a lengthy period of phased lockdowns interspersed with periods of comparative normality, in order best to manage the curve going forward. And other countries will likely follow suit. We have to remember that flattening the curve is not the endgame, it's merely an early victory in what will no doubt be a protracted process.

The virus in Italy started with a guy from Germany who went to China and then in Italy.
The virus started earlier in Germany but they had hidden it.

This has been proven in lab from the RNA of the virus and his mutation.

Glad to hear it's getting a bit better in Italy. Hope you're okay over there. We have to look for any positives, and an improvement in the curve is a good sign!

There are other important factors to consider, too. Germany appears to be following Italy very closely on this chart, but the data (table below) tells a different story.
The table gives Italy a 10.19% death rate (8215/80589), but Germany only 0.62% (304/49344).









Now there can be several factors that influence this discrepancy, for example Italy's healthcare system is under more strain than Germany's, as evidenced by the Italian doctors saying they are having to choose who to save. Quarantining can also be a factor, as those countries that act early and get the most vulnerable people at least partially shielded will see lower mortality rates. However I do believe that the extent of testing is the major driver here. Have a look at the table below (excerpt from the full table here).




We can see that Germany had conducted almost as many tests by 15 March as Italy had by 20 March - and this despite the outbreak in Germany starting after that in Italy.
It does seem likely that actually there have been hugely more cases in Italy than have been reported, with only the most serious patients being tested, and that the actual death rate is considerably lower than stated, arguably by at least an order of magnitude.

Not sure if that helps or not, but there is a wealth of data out there, and the above does seem to suggest that Italy has had many more cases than stated, and so is further along than most countries towards achieving a decent proportion of the population with immunity.

Ok so after some weeks some updates.

The question to my thread was yes, other countries did the same thing.

The situation here in Italy is still delicate the curve is going better we went from +30% daily to around 8-10% now, experts attending the peak for the 1st week of April.

Just to update, my country (Malaysia) has commenced lockdown until the end of the month.

Restaurants are allowed to accept takeaway orders.

They would do better if they banned all drugs that compromised immune systems, and then allowed us to build a herd immunity. The best treatment for the virus is drinking hot water. This increases the effectiveness of your immune system, and it ensures that you are not dehydrated.

As said here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54010422

Italy now is almost completely locked down.

Only drug stores and food stores are allowed to be open.

Well shit, i'm expecting some furniture from Italy.
My apt is a total mess in expectation to this new couch and some other pieces, and by the looks of it, i'm gonna be waiting for it for a long time to come.

Well here in Philippines, The administration has already imposes travel bans from some countries (and the vise versa). President Duterte as per News, is still not seeing the total locked down as of the moment (But there are already talks on the possibility of a locked down only for NCR). Just to add for the past days the alert level of Covid was only set to Yellow but as of today the alert level was now lifted from Yellow to Red alert. Department of Health had announce that there are already 33 cases recorder and numbers of P.O.I. under the radar.

Also, The government had announce the cancellation of Classes from all levels due to COVID 19. It started last March 9 that will last up to March 14 (I guess, this is still tentative).

There are some Private companies as well are now advising there employees to work from there home, to avoid or to lessen the interaction. Some of the representatives of the Cabinet are now suggesting the work from home to be passed for all Sectors (Which I think is impossible to happen, especially to the BPO companies)

Yes, I think other countries will do the same.

The Coronavirus outbreak really highlights both the benefits and the problems of a centralised economy. China was able to implement the lockdown at lightning speed, but they were also able to suppress the initial reports of the virus. Unfortunately their control of the news meant that the lockdown, when it finally occurred, was far too late. Many Chinese cities already had cases by the time of the lockdown, so at best it delayed the spread a bit; it was far too late for true containment.

Governments are in general too slow. They wait for an effect to be visible before taking action, by which time it is too late. There are obvious parallels with how countries are treating the climate crisis. Coronavirus has an average 5 day incubation period before symptoms present. If you wait until there is an outbreak of symptoms, then you've already allowed a minimum of 5 days free movement of infected people.


_{https://xkcd.com/}

Also, you do wonder - or at least I wonder, being extremely cynical of government actions and motivations - whether the governments are being incompetent or are purposefully delaying quarantines. I can see economists and accountants in government offices, totting up figures, looking at how much pensioners cost the state, and calculating exactly how much more money they would have if some of those pensioners were to expire from say a viral outbreak.

Incidentally, there is an interesting report here of what it is like to live within the Wuhan lockdown.

Italy in 2 hours will be officially locked down for containing the COVID19 Virus.
Movements will be allowed only for work and for good of 1st necessity, food medicines, etc.

This is one of the best sites I've found for this argument.

https://avatorl.org/covid-19/



The virus spread in Italy seems has been started from Germany, not from China


Source: https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/06/coronavirus-paziente-1-tedesco-italia/

Probably other countries will do the same soon.



I hope they will do more closing everything like in Cina, it is getting scary to be here.