Topic: It's about to get ugly on mtgox (Read 5925 times)

I could lose it, and still pay the bills until I go back to work again without compromising on the quality of my life.

But the money i am playing with on Bitstamp does pretty much consist of the lionshare of my capital that is not in precious metal form.

I could lose it all, but I would be extremely pissed off if I did.

you sound like you are 'tra-vesting' with money you can't lose..  this market is going to give you the nerves of rabbit stuck in a parking lot

For me, bullish trend is not confirmed until high from previous bounce is taken out, which of course means that I miss out on a fair bit of upside (but also less likely to get buried under a big load of downside). In this case, the previous bounce has been taken out not by another spike, but by a steady trend upwards. We are at a short term 'double top' as I type, but the volume has increased on this recent uptrend so that has got to be even better for short term forecast.

However, with Bitcoin trading (got to be a trader these days as investment time has passed, btc far too volatile and uncertain for 'investment' in the truest sense of the word), we are truly living pip to post. The extremities in the BTC market in the past 5 weeks alone, kind of mimic those that have happened in Gold over the past 15 years. Insane stuff. You have got to be ready to change your tune the moment the direction of the wind changes and be capable of being both a bear and a bull in the same thoughtspace when it comes to Bitcoin.

As someone who has been buying and spending Bitcoins since $5 days, but bought my first proper investment Bitcoins in earnest at around $700, I say fuck all this 'HODLING' nonsense.

People say that all the corporate interest lined up for Bitcoin in Q2014 is ultra bullish. I think that if big hitters are coming to the party, that they would much rather accumulate coins panic sold to them at $100 during a brutal correction, than entering the market Honest John style, ramping up the prices as they accumulate causing big sell-off events, resulting in Joe Sixpack enriching himself at their expense.


Not if we changed to the winning team at half time, and by sticking with the team that was looking much more likely to win in the first half, we spared ourselves the same risk that you 'bulls' were exposed to for not very much (in btc terms) upside. Lets face it, tons of you 'bulls' (idiots) got slaughtered in recent weeks. I never, and neither did the other bears.

P.S. I now have a decent amount of skin in the game looking for some upside.....that doesn't mean that I would be shocked by another brutal smash down within a couple of weeks, or even just a few days....easily still on the cards. Now is no time for arrogance or circle jerking from any 'ideological' market group.

It sure did get ugly for you bears.

You just have to be ready to see the trend change..  I was hedged more for the downside but other factors than China seemed to fortify the $500 level and then those ascending continuous triangles emerged so why fight the momentum?

Everyone kept thinking each one was a bull trap. 

Lots of businesses are putting bitcoin into their plans...  perhaps we swoon a bit Q1 '14, but that would be a normal correction than a trend downwards

Yeah.....we are definitely trending up now, probably on back of China news/rumours of being able to get money back onto exchanges.

I am still a medium term bear, but I have bought in to tune of 5K for the time being, with tentative plans to sell just short of $800 mark.

I still have 13K of buy-ins for between $100 - $250.

I am still aware that the near term fate of the Bitcoin price is based heavily around events in China and ultimately on the whims and desires of a few Chinese government officials.

With the bullish trend now seeming to have established itself, there could be a quite a decent rally yet in Bitcoin, but the entire market is still hanging by a thread as far as I can see. How anyone can come out and 'confidently' predict what BTC is going to from here on out is beyond me, unless they have a direct line to the head of the PBOC, which nobody here does.

As usual, 9/10 'forecasts' on here are simply based on what the poster 'wants' to happen.

lol

Look at volume trends for bitcoin over the last two years. Every slowdown in volume was followed by a big bounce. That observation combined with the trend line breakout made me turn bullish for now.


Bitcoin is not like a stock in that the market of buyers is a green field of investors that extends way beyond your stock investor. I would like to see better analysis come out of Bitcoin days destroyed and volume, maybe there is already some analytics based on those, but i haven't seen them yet.

doomers didn't want to see it when it was straightening out and forming uptrend...  i called it a few days ago that it broke from trending down to rather heading up to 700 (even on btce)

but they still dream of getting $100-300 bitcoins...  keep dreaming

Need to see some real upward momentum here.  It's been just drifting down for quite a while now.  Can't tell if it's just holding on or trying to form a new base.

Really?

I amn't going to panic buy.

BTC can either prove irrefutably that the trendline is broke or go home.

broke above trendline in last couple hours...... panic buy about to start

It's actually been unusually stable since the 19th

nothing happened

What a great observation! Every bottom is getting higher, then again, every top is getting lower... Uptrend??? I don't see it! Hmm, If only there was a name, and subsequent outcome for such a pattern

If you post a doom thread every day for many days, one of the days you get a little bit of applause while the price corrects 20% down. Then everybody forgets about you again.

It is actually ugly on Gox now, every bottom is higher than the previous one. Might as well crash to four digits by 2014.

Is the OP a perma-bear? If someone says "it's about to get ugly...," I expect the ugliness to start imminently, not 2 or more days later.

For one weeks now there is an upward trend. But you'll never know. The thread starter is aware: He could make such a predition. He could be wrong -> ok. He could be right -> he is a god.

still waiting for mtgox to get ugly...

The real reason must be to try and make Bitcoin look like Devcoin (no offence Devcoin) trying to make it look like your buying more Bitcoin than you are only to end up making everything priced in mbtc look expensive.

Woot, another flash crash to $0.01 again! I'm a buy me 10,000 coins when it reaches that!

If lots of people buy mbtcs then the effect on a whole Btc is the same. See the equation.

I wouldnt pay more for 100cents than for $1, the system isnt revolutionary!

Also know as pump the price with psychological tricks... wait.. pump ? mmmh.. pump to dump? yeah, we need higher prices to sell MOOOOAR!

+1  human psychology

The average person is willing to pay a lot more for 100 mBTC than for 0.1 BTC, even though they're the same thing. It's basic human psychology. Therefore, shifting to mBTC (or similar denominations) would drive up the price.

And your point is???

1000 mbtc = 1 Btc

1000 x 1000 mbtc = 1000 Btc

Shhhhhh

Wait, I wasn't aware that the point of switching to mBTC was to pump the price...

This is going to be the problem, going into the future.  

And switching to mBTC doesn't help fix this.  

Because people can buy thousands of mBTC without pushing the price up on a "whole" BTC at all.

At least that's how I understand it.

Say wha...?

Has happened to me a few times.....

I sold at $370 back in November thinking I done great, woke up with a dream that BTC had hit $600 on Gox, bolted through to the PC, saw that BTC was still just around $400, but recognised the subconscious signal that I had to get properly into this marker. It took 11 bloody days from that point to get set up on Bitstamp (I stupidly refused to pay the 20% premiums that were standard on LocalBitcoins at the time so missed out on about 100% of upside.

After the bounce from previous $540 crash, I woke up and automatically made for my PC, telling myself that 'it has peaked, sell now, it won't stay there long'. BTC was at $920. As I came to my senses I thought to myself, "WTF am I playing at, turn this shit off now"....I ended up selling 80% of what I had later on that day at $880. BTC never been so high since.

and there are numerous other examples I could bore everyone to death with.

Infact, if I were to trade on my dreams I would generally be doing much better than when I sit and scrutinise news events or attempt amateur chart analysis.

The human brain is a massively complex thing although most of the processes it completes are done unconsciously or subconsciously. So unfortunately, our conscious mind is not able to harness the bazillion calculations per second processing power of the entirety of our minds, leaving us stuck with being able to consider between 7-12 factors at once when we think mentally, or perhaps up to 30 when we are doing an intensive desk study, writing everything down and compiling data.

So whilst we can't rely on our subconscious mind to deliver the goods on practical problems that are mainly of interest to our conscious minds, when we are thrown a scrap of information through a dream, or an intuitive ping, we would do well to heed the message, providing we are capable of interpreting that message and not bending it to fit any paradigm that our conscious minds are subscribing to. And on this note, I will state once again that I believe that BTC is going to tank. Although I have since attempted to rationalise this belief with facts, charts, and data, the initial 'tip off' was of the 'subconscious' variety.

My next buy-ins are between $100 - $230, Bitstamp prices.

If these come good, will this be the absolute bottom? I wouldn't fkn bet on it!

Everybody is trolling, that's what I mean 

I don't really get this? So are there too many buyers?

Are you saying that there are many buyers or there are not and that is wishful thinking but since everybody thinks there are too many buyers nobody is selling? Or maybe everybody is buying?

I'll wait for 2016

And then there's the "wait till it gets to $10 to buy" folks...

And again: too many people who think that there are too many buyers wishful thinking on get bitcoins below 400

I am thinking that there is a good chance it will not crash.

Simply people who own bitcoins are just not selling and are just waiting for the price to go higher at this point. This is why volume is so low.

The demand is not there for expensive bitcoins, this is probably the reason why the price is not going higher.

I don't see anything changing, maybe a very slow decline to lower numbers but I doubt we will see a crash. I don't see any really bad news worse than china being out of the game.

That drop woke me up out of my sleep. No not with an alert but I just felt it in my dream, rolled out bed, checked and there it was. I think I'm getting an ESP connection to these markets or something.

Oh shiiiiiet, it crashed $40 upwards :s

agree!

The trigger point for the newest flash crash, a 1000 wall eaten, and 1500 coins dumped, and the continuation of the downward trend