Topic: It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket. (Read 5697 times)

BFL claims there were flaws in the chip design. Which is not very surprising since they apparently skipped the prototype stage and went straight from simulations to manufacturing. I do believe they are trying their best to get them out but it's not easy. Other ASIC producers are also reporting delays. It's a race right now.

The recovery after Pirate's antics came after a few days. Bitcoiners are die-hard optimists.

By the way, weren't ASICs supposed to be shipped by the end of the year? What happened?

That depends on your definition of quick. If they fail to deliver there will be lots of rage quitting. Not only from those who got burned but also from people who expected the community to get it's shit together by this time.
I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing would last over a year.

or 2 legit 2 quit?

The block reward halving is certainly an momentous occasion for Bitcoin users, but it does not bring in any new users or hashing power, so there was pretty much no effect. In fact, if you look, the hashrate is actually increasing, and the difficulty is currently predicted to increase by about 6%.

If BFL fails to deliver its non-existent ASICs, there will be a sudden fall and a quick recovery.

+1

The ASIC market theories don't make any sense. My view is that hoarding might actually increase. I will explain this of course.

The thing is, after ASIC's mining will be something that mostly only people who are really into Bitcoin will be participating in. With GPU's it's very different, I believe there is a good amount of mining still going on by people who simply have a graphics card running and they don't really even understand Bitcoin thus they sell everything they mine. ASIC's require a little more effort and understanding to invest in since they are no good for anything else.

What could happen is that at least the people who have smallish ASIC investments will be hoarding a lot. Big ASIC operations are a different story, they have significant investment and maintaining costs and they have to sell to cover those. However, as I see it based on the preorders, a large majority of ASIC mining power will be very decentralized. It's not going the "big businesses mining everything" route yet at least.

I don't buy the fact that people have invested everything in ASIC's and want to just sell everything to buy more ASIC's. In fact the whole ASIC mining might get over the range of profitability fast. It might be that people are looking more at selling their ASIC's than buying more. The whole ASIC thing, with question marks over delivery times and everything, is a big risk to invest in. Anyone who is all-in on ASIC's is in my opinion a bit stupid.

Also, it's important to take into account that even if people were trying to earn money through mining to invest in new chips fast (this is a possibility if the profitability remains high), they don't necessarily sell! Many ASIC sellers accept bitcoins.

My conclusion is that there is really no reason to expect higher selling rates compared to what we've had before. Also, the selling rate would have to be massively different to have any significant effect since we just had the halving. ASIC's will increase the amount of new coins for a while at some point, but the effect of that will be very temporary. Truth is we're going to be seeing 3600 new coins per day and that's it.

Euro / USD explains what we are seeing:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=3m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

80% correlation the last 3 months. BTC is a short term reserve currency for the Dollar like the Euro is for real life day traders.

watch out for bad Euro zone announcements, And real life traders are using Bitcoin and are too smart to flag  their buy orders for someone to crash sell into.

Saturn V Launch Slow Motion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HcnmthntUo     

OMG will this asic bullshit ever end?

For the last time: there can be max 3600 btc mined per day. There is about 20k daily volume only on mtgox only in usd market. So even if all miners decided to sell immediately (which is unrealistic) price movement would be very small.

Why am I not a billionaire yet?

https://i.imgur.com/yW2TA.jpg

Awesome comeback. +1 from me. 

Once again...proof?...lol

 

I did twist your words, but unintentionally. I'll rephrase the statement: Its not flawed logic because we are not the only two new investors.

Might want to check your logic on trading strategies. That is not how all people invest.

The guy in the youtube video that Adam just posted ^. 

Nice try to twist my words. Where did I say that? Link please.

LOL!! 

like this guy  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJrlTK2R4So

what ASICs will do is spread the wealth, a wave of new miners will use this ASIC switch to jump in the mining game.

new miner will NEED to get a nice big stash b4 they start selling.

So you want him to have a sample size of 20,000 people in his personal environment who are starting to use bitcoin?  In contrast, your statements are the absolute truth, no evidence required.  Enlighten me, where do you get your ideas?

Thanks for showing me that 

I think the flawed logic is you saying that we are the only two new investors.

Wow all 2 of you are hoarding. Good job that will keep the price up.

Love the flawed logic around here. When you said "investorS" you meant 2, not like 20,000. LOL!

Who said I knew 100% for certain that all ASIC miners would sell all of their BTC? I said that the mindset behind investing in ASICs is to PROFIT. How do you profit if you never convert your bitcoins to cash?

Do you doubt yourself is why you ask if I doubt myself?

There are millions of BTC waiting to be sold at higher prices. Given that is the case I predict there will be immense selling pressure come ASIC release (or possibly even prerelease).

ya, and this guy too :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJrlTK2R4So

 

Perhaps they dont have as much to sell anymore and used the bulk of it to preorder ASICs. That would be one big reason.

Some people here are very irrational when it comes to investing. Just throw caution to the wind and buy ASICS.

I am a new investor, and I hoard. I know someone else who just learned about bitcoin who is starting to hoard.

Smoothie, if there was someone who knew what was going to happen for sure, they WOULD NOT TELL A SOUL. Unless of course they didn't think they'd turn out to be right.

Tell me Smoothie, do you doubt yourself?

But they are mining now, why wait for ASICs to come out, why not just sell some now?

Maybe because they thought they would be delivered in October and counted on them being on time so they are in need of the capital they blew on a product that does not exist. People have bills and lives to live. Loaning BFL large sums of money could do that to anyone. People will sell once they mine. I assure you this is the case.

people who bought ASICs paid in full, and have been living without this money for months, i really do not understand why so many people think miner will cash out like crazy once they start mining on ASICs.

the way i see it, miner feel unsure if they will be as profitable as they are now when ASICs come out, add to that bitcoin price holding higher then its ever been before, so if anything they are selling for a profit now.

LOL okay please entertain me with your theory.

How does this work and what proof do you have that this IS the case?

 

This ^. Don't think that people who bought ASICs will hoard bitcoins. They will sell immediately to recoup hardware costs and to possibly buy more ASIC hardware to get a bigger piece of the total hash rate.

New investors hoard.

Not every person that discovers bitcoin just goes willy nilly and sells all their assets to buy bitcoin though.

Hoarding has kept the price high. Not new investors.

You can't read can you? I said that the strategy is to "do nothing" until the opportunity presents itself.

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

Its behaving as I expected.  The blockchain halving event won't put significant pressure on the price for for some time -- there are just too few coins involved relative to the daily txn size on Mt Gox.  However if we assume that the # of coins being sequestered (i.e. taken off the exchange either for long term investment or private exchange use) remains roughly the same then there will clearly be a slight shift to the demand side.  But this shift is easily met by speculators taking profits since the price remains pretty good.  The result is that a week to a few months from now you end up with a LOT of speculative fiat on the exchanges and so some good news will trigger a cascade of momentum buying :-).  The longer the price hangs around at this level (or slowly rises) the bigger the final pop.

You may have found a pattern there. If everyone expects the price to go up, but it never does, it either flatlines or decrease, then you can profit from this in your future investments!!!

opening my online news website i got this


More fuel, then look at the direction of the rocket!

You're not alone in your thinking 

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

New people discover Bitcoin every day...

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

I'm going to do what Billionaire Jim Rogers says he does "I wait until all I have to do is go over there and pick up the money (easy). Until then I do nothing."

Once opportunity presents itself you will know. Until then, do nothing.

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

Just my input though...

[deleted]

The fallacy here is that there are numerous other CombustibleLemons who follow the same naive logic.
Then there are CombustibleOranges who try to predict what CombustibleLemons will be doing.
Then there are supercomputers which try to outsmart both oranges and lemons.
Asymptotically, it is completely unpredictable mess = random.

THIS ^....

The play here is obvious. We know what 90% of people want to do with btc who read this forum.

Markets...how do they work? 

The halving has been priced in since about 5 months ago. It's only normal that the price does not swing wildly due to halving.

The wordpress news did lift the price up over 10%.

I agree with you completely. Most of us know bitcoins are going to be worth more than $12.50 in the future, we just don't know when or if they will drop down to $5 again beforehand. Very much a ticking time bomb.

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

I concur.

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that!

Yes, and...

350% up last year.
5500% up last two years.

I win  

Silly math...

Down 25% from 3.5 months ago. LOL

It's coming with Santa

(And it's 20% up last month.)

Why is it that people can't see that the opposite possiblity of a rocket up could be a rocket down?

"Hmm will it go up?"

"Will it go side ways?"

"It's quiet, why isn't it going up?"

""


LOL!

 

pirateat40 is a good guy, he always greeted

the reason it fell last year was because of pirate40 using everyone's coins to manipulated the market.

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of  small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions.  Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)?  It is the very definition of NOT random.  It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year.  It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

Why do people even think they can predict the price trend? The only way to be somewhat above the randomness is to rely on methods deemed illegal (insider trading and market manipulation).

It seems oddly familiar....big change predicted to be coming...everyone holds their breath and then.......

Something less than the usual.

I keep looking back to last year where everyone expected a HUGE price break after The Goodwife did an entire episode about bitcoin and finding Satoshi.  We built for 2-3 months expecting something amazing...and then...nothing.  What followed was a 30-40%ish price fall (Had to check numbers since I'm tipsy and prone to fudging)