Topic: I've been thinking about writing a book on Bitcoin doomsday scenarios... (Read 1867 times)

I initially considered that but quickly realized it's not suited for me, which isn't saying anything bad about that kind of book. There are other niches than just straight-faced Bitcoin promotion. This obviously isn't the Bitcoin book, and there are loads of niches to fill.
1) I can't think of a way to make that interesting for people who've already heard about Bitcoin, and frankly, I talk to those people more than enough. If you want reasons 1-1000 Bitcoin will succeed, you go anywhere with "Bitcoin" in the name (this forum, for example) where people are trying to sell you on the thing they happen to have 20%+ of their savings in. It's done over and over and over again - and it should be, but I don't have interest in it.
2) If you give far-fetched examples of why Bitcoin will succeed, you end up making Bitcoin look like a joke. By giving far-fetched doomsday scenarios and subtly hint at how ridiculous they are and, in some cases, very easy to solve, you strengthen Bitcoin's case. I'd argue this is more easy to turn into an argument for Bitcoin than an upfront defense of Bitcoin.
3) Because you can't use far-fetched examples, content is extremely limited and usually narrow in scope. The book might be able to cover maybe five major catalysts to Bitcoin adoption, but the site would have to be the standard "company X accepts Bitcoin. CEO thinks it's the future." "company Y accepts Bitcoin. CEO thinks it's the future." "company Z accepts Bitcoin. CEO thinks it's the future." with intermittent "Bob lays out a way to do X with Bitcoin." "Alice lays out a way to do Y with Bitcoin." It's just the same damn thing over and over. There's very little room for creativity in the writing space there (it's a very informational space, I'd argue, because Bitcoin has a very strong case in favor of it), though there's a ton of room for creativity in the "doing" space there.
4) I'd argue it's healthier to look at new things from a very critical point of view. You don't want to be that guy who has "faith" in Bitcoin, and when someone proposes a reason Bitcoin might fail, you look like a deer in the headlights and start to doubt your faith.
5) It's already being done. Andreas Antonopoulos has a great book deal which I'm sure will produce excellent arguments in favor of Bitcoin in a very informational way which will help you use Bitcoin. http://bitcoinbook.info/

Better plan, would sell better on the way up also.

I'm so tired of conspiracy theories and doom peddlers. And I believe most of them too. It's just played out,

My major fear is just the establishment will declare it illegal to use. That will feed the exodus of the intelligent portion of the population further towards exiting for Tahiti or wherever says sure do what you like. The masses will stop using it so as not to go to jail, and they will neither progress with technology nor sustain themselves as atlas shrugs and hops a plane, and Calcutta and LA end up with the same economic profile.

That's my odds on bet for the demise of bitcoin. It won't die it will just be the currency of the global mobile who can escape their old world parasites.

Or you could do the exact opposite.

That's a great idea to have the community able to contribute chapters or portions of the book!

I'd definitely be interested.

This is in line with what I was envisioning and would be especially doable with the website, where consistency can vary a little more. If I'm still interested when the Let's Talk Bitcoin transcription project is done and nobody else goes ahead with this, I think I'll give a more clear outline and get some type of submission/editing system together.

The site could include some fun cross-overs for paranoid schizophrenics. There could be a "Spot the Fed" section where people post images and videos of federal agents in Bitcoin conferences and we create worrying graphs showing the increased infiltration of communities by "TPTB." This could turn into a contest awarding BTC for valid submissions. Idunno if it'd be too "extreme" to be worth approaching Adam & LTB company about doing this as a kind of sister site.

What about making this a community work? Everybody who wants writes a chapter while there's still room and proceeds are shared in some way or another? I'd rather not write a whole book but a few chapters would be perfect for my schedule.

It would look at various (some fantastical, some more plausible) doomsday scenarios and suggest how-tos on fixing it from a good number of intelligent people. I would consider this more as a series of paranoid, speculative short stories than some serious rebuttal to reasons 1-1000 Bitcoin will fail. Quality bathroom material, really.

For example, World War 3 breaks out in 2025. The vast majority of computers use SSDs for storage. EMP strikes wipe out most data across the world. Countries enforce economic sanctions by cutting off connections to the countries they're sanctioning. The Internet is no longer unified, and the Americas have no connection to "the big continent."

Well, assuming we don't have many renegade satellite ISPs willing to host the blockchain (rather, that Richard Branson is a big, fat vagina [corner-image, Richard Branson with vagina-face subtitled "Doing space somersaults as Bitcoin dies."), we'd probably need to come up with a terrestrial mesh network. People in the Americas would be particularly fucked, because unlike England with the Dover Strait, where the ~4 mile wireless connection would be relatively trivial, there aren't many easy ways for America to connect to "the big continent." Americans couldn't profitably mine (due to orphans⁵⁴) nor trust transactions (due to low hashpower⁵⁵). The cheapest way to connect the Americas to "the big continent" would be going along the Bering Strait, with powerful high-frequency radio towers on the Diomede islands and perhaps "WiFi buoys" going along the water for redundancy [corner image, Dimoede islands & Bering Strait with illustration of how wireless connection would occur]. These islands will probably be hotly contested and any equipment there disabled.

Are there alternative routes or more discrete ways of creating that connection? What if we developed geographical coins (Americoin, Eurocoin, Asiacoin) and used bitcoins as the reserve currency? Would Bitcoin be used in cut-off countries merely by sneakernet?

Plausibility, dangers, and solutions as suggested by experts X, Y, and Z... (round-table discussion format - moderator gives prompt, guests discuss, new prompt, discuss, prompt, discuss, prompt, discuss)

Other scenarios:

• Transacting in virtual currencies declared illegal everywhere.
• Satoshi Nakamoto's identity revealed. Satoshi is found to be an international criminal wanted for child abuse, distributing child pornography, orchestrating 9/11, and executing Jesus.
• secp256k1 proven weak, thousands of coins stolen. Effectively rolling back the blockchain would negate transactions worth hundreds of thousands in coins.
• Samsung hard drive firmware found to scan and upload Bitcoin wallets to rogue employee.
• The Satosh Infection!
• HSBC subsidiary deploys 24,783,692GH/s in ASICs on the network. (bonus content: cost to 51% various virtual currency networks)
• Dick Cheney endorses Bitcoin.
• The 10TB blockchain.

I'd guess a formulaic method for content creation would be reasonable, similar to how Cracked articles are formatted.
Scenario
The Problem
Possible solutions
Discussion
Conclusion (plausibility and potential damage rating)

Back of book contains vocabulary section listed alphabetically and as they appear in book (like with orphans⁵⁴, you'd go to "54" in the vocabulary index). The book cover would necessarily be the most badass of any in a B&M store, with Putin shooting panicked children as Obama goes diving to cut undersea communications cables and Chinese nanodrones fly around in search of paper wallets to scan and upload.

Lifespan post-book could be extended as a regular blog-style site, with new scenarios posted regularly (this could also be done in reverse - website first, then book). Book can be self-funded, copyleft-similar (would need to look into proper license) in digital format, sold in physical format for cash, with proceeds split between authors, editor, and experts (on top of up-front payment, if necessary). Website monetization model steals Let's Talk Bitcoin tip-per-segment idea, with tips split between content producers. Minimal site sponsorship to pay web hosting costs - maybe one rotating banner ad.

Unsure how serious I am about this, so feel free to take the idea and run with it. I'd probably buy it.