A lot of people think that come January 1st there will be new buyers lining up; I think a few new buyers thought they would already get in early - that's why we have slowish but steady growth over Christmas.
It seems likely that there will be more new buyers from now throughout January and beyond. Over the holidays Bitcoin is in the news "top investment of 2013" etc. Families getting together and people learning about Bitcoin directly from family members and friends who are already in.
Many "weak" sellers have dropped out by now and the rest will hold as common sense and the news in general says new buyers are coming in January, February, March... Why risk selling now? It doesn't make sense.
Of course there is always whale trading, sometimes on exchanges, which can cause flash crashes and spikes upwards but the general trend is up now. The bottom was $450, very much in line with the pattern of previous bubble pops. People find it hard to believe that Bitcoin can be worth so much now compared to the beginning of 2013 but just look at the charts and statistics - everything is pleasingly in line with previous bubbles and growth. But some people are still waiting for $300 coins. A few of these people have been around for a long time, which I find odd. But maybe it is even more difficult for certain old-timers to accept how quickly Bitcoin has grown, as they remember buying and selling for a few dollars. There is also the FUD element - people strongly hoping to induce a panic sell-off. But just look at the maths with a dispassionate eye, look at the bubbles using straightforward price charts to check ratios and stick to logarithmic charts (for at least another couple of years minimum) for a sense of where we are heading in the medium to long term.
The other thing to consider is how events will play out in China. To begin with, make no mistake, technically and economically there is a whole lot of room for Bitcoin to grow without a single Chinese user, if it ever came to that. But psychologically news from China (essentially will the government allow Bitcoin or not) has a big effect at the moment, although people are already developing a resistance to Chinese bad news (which seems also to have given a certain immunity to other negative news such as the current stalling of Bitcoin in India, which does not seem to have had an effect on price). The other, more murky Chinese issue is whether or not certain exchanges are faking volume levels, whether or not there is a conspiracy to dump Chinese Bitcoin stashes on Mt Gox, etc. Personally I believe the negative power of these issues are more in the gossip than in anything else, and furthermore Bitcoin has been mired in controversy (Silk Road, exchange malpractice, etc.) since its inception and again, people are becoming resistant to this kind of news.
Regarding other countries people should not confuse a cautious approach with negativity. I find the stances of most countries positive for Bitcoin. Forget which category it will be classed under (currency, commodity, stock, share, etc.) or what type of tax will be levied on it... by far the most important thing to know is that people will be allowed to continue buying and selling Bitcoins and that the infrastructure will be allowed to develop, which is the overwhelming consensus reached by a large majority of countries so far.
Lastly there will be an explosion in Bitcoin services starting early next year. There will be much more investment in service providers - many times the levels we have been hearing about over the past couple of months.
It's been said before that Bitcoin is unique among the ranks of Internet giants like Facebook, Twitter, etc. in that while these companies grew massive before inviting the public to buy in, it is as if the IPO for Bitcoin began from day one - anyone could own what are in one way "shares" (Bitcoins) of the Bitcoin "company". These "shares", which can be kept as a store of wealth and traded, also serve as the engine for an efficient and cheap payments solution in which merchants and customers can essentially choose to transact fiat currency, using Bitcoins as an intermediary to avoid credit card fees and take advantage of super-fast payments. This is a brand new and extremely exciting and interesting technology, and 2014 = first year of mass adoption.
So you can probably tell I feel bullish about January 1st and beyond.
+1 Very well written !
