Looking to see if my thinking is close to right in my analysis of possible prices (and yes I know this is all *guess* work, but I'm hoping this is semi-educated guess-work
)The 2 coins I've had hopes for are MCO and CTR. I've read the FUD, I've watched the projects, and I'm mostly an optimist. Please try and keep this thread FUD free and just focus on the price analysis piece of it as it relates to *any* project. These are just the 2 I picked out and am involved in.
disclaimer* I know market cap isn't the best way to gauge potential, but I am still fairly new and it's the easy way I've managed to pick up on to make some guesses for potential.
Because of announcements made this morning and possible app updates tomorrow/soon I started looking at possible exit points based on what kind of news came out.
*number current at one point this morning
MCO: price = $9.78 total circulating supply = 9,814,875
CTR: price = $0.43 tcs = 68,000,000
Top 10 coin (Monero tcs = 1,346,364,471)
Top 20 coin (Hshares tcs = 365,509,385)
If either of these coins delivered the moon promises, I feel it more likely that they become top 20 coins and not top 10. This is my gut telling me that top 10 will always be infrastructure/currency and not tokens. However I included Top 10 numbers for perspective
to break into top 20
MCO: 365,509,385/9,814,875 = 3.807x increase = $37.23
CTR: 365,509,385/68,000,000 = 5.375x increase = $2.31
top 10
MCO: 1,346,364,471/9,814,875 = 14.023x increase = $137.14
CTR: 1,346,364,471/68,000,000 = 19.8x increase = $8.51
I have kept total token supply out of the equations for the moment but I am aware that more circulating = lower price for = marketcap. I am just trying to keep things fairly simple for the time being. Or am I wrong in dismissing total supply vs total circulating?
So how flawed is this analysis?
If I believe that neither of these can break top 10, but top 20 is possible, is bailing out at $30 - $35 for MCO and $2.00 for CTR the right way to think of things? (since I will never time things right to get out at the very top of the market
)Or, how bad is using market cap as an analysis tool and do those reasons invalidate this thinking in anyway?