Topic: Just a couple of observations (Read 944 times)

Maybe a simple market following strategy is a better fit, if you really want to do some day trading.

Have you noticed this thread (Goomboo)?
This would be an example for such a simple strategy. The nice point of any strategy is that it relieves you from choosing the right timing. It gives you a clear indication when to buy and when to sell. Even if the points aren't utterly optimal, just alone the fact that your emotions are removed from the picture usually makes such a strategy more successful than trying to go for the max.

Anyone else notice the amount of buying it takes to get us from here @ 116 to 175 is only 4.75 million? That's pretty much home much it took to just get from 95 to 105 I thinkkkk

Nice thoughts here. Also consider the recent "bumps" altogether -

Colbert bump, Western Union/Moneygram bump, MetART bump, OKCupid bump.

People are still fearful so not really ready to trade on news yet, the way they might have a month ago. But mark my words, we will see a reasonable increase in userbase in a few weeks once the first trickle of Colbert viewers, MetArt folks, and OKCupid folks wrap their minds on how to fund an account. This will be a very small effect but will increase over time - simply more ways people get exposed to and can use bitcoins.

As for the WU news, it will be a while before anything materializes, but that is actually significant news that is worth trading on. I'll bet my britches that the WU execs bought a decent amount of bitcoins at $55 through $90 and then made the announcement and they are "considering" it. Same thing the Reddit folks did and same thing Kim did. Bought a stash and then announced that their big huge website was accepting.

Summary: WU news worth trading on at this point, colbert/metart/okcupid may result in trickle-sized increase in userbase starting in a few weeks, which will greatly increase in the weeks following.

I thought I had an extremely steady hand. I held during the crash (unfortunately). I held during all those massive swings. But finally when I woke up the other morning and it was at 55 and I decided to sell some to take out my risk.. but also in case it dropped further to buy more. Well that was a bad call. Those orders selling below 60 were being chewed through like crazy by buy orders. I should have paid attention and not been an idiot.

Actually I take back what I said about a retraction coming haha. If this buying frenzy keeps up........ it's already up to 117 guys


Honestly I probably don't have the constitution to be a day trader but I think I can learn from mistakes and not panic sell again. I think the loss made me stronger

I would take profit between here and 200 and then wait for a drop to under 100 to buy more.

I have been making mediocre trading decisions (in hindsight) too. One thing I do now is hold rather than sell when I am panicking. That has worked out in my favor some times but was rough as I held from $250 all the way to $50.

I have some Casascius coins in a sock drawer. When I am done pretending to be a daytrader, I'm going to get off the internet and just sit on them without stressing out about price.

Unless you have balls of steel (unlike me) you are not fit for daytrading. I managed to get a few profitable trades when there were no goxxian fees, but since then I have stopped and am much happier because of it. I'd recommend you to do the same, seeing as you are also liable to panic sell/buy.

As for what to do with your fiat, it depends where it is. If its in your bank account, there is no need to buy unless you need the bitcoin. I am not a proponent of buying bitcoins for the sake of buying bitcoins. Unless you want those coins badly for some reason, just keep your existing coins and spend your fiat. However if your fiat is in gox already, I'd recommend buying and adding those coins to your stache, just because of the fees the banks will charge you if you withdraw as well as the inconvenience associated with the process. In other words, given the general confusion in the market right now, I'd say there isn't enough of an obvious trend to overcome the expense of moving money in or out of gox. However for the money that is already in gox, its probably safer and potentially more profitable to own bitcoins.

basically I still have about 80% of my coins. My idea is to put away about 60% of what I have now and use the rest to day trade. My goal would be to group all the coins together as one unit.. and basically hold bitcoin until I think there will be some dip. Sell the coins..... and buy back at a cheaper price. If the price just continues soaring and I don't get any dip then just keep them on the exchange for a while...... and if it still doesn't come back down then just take that money. It's already more than I initially sold for. I bought back in at 87 (sold at 55).

The hard part is timing the dips. I don't see there being a retraction in the next few hours.

There is around 19.5 million in bids and before the crash there was only 16 million. (I wonder how much money is ready to invest but not involved in some open order?)

There are 50k less coins on the market already than there were just a few days ago. I remember after the crash there was easily over 150k. Now it's under 100k.

Mt gox appears to have addressed some issues with their lag and DDOSing. They seem better than before. I haven't seen the lag creep up to 30+ minutes. I think i saw it at 1 minute at one point today.

A millionaire can enter the market now and only move the price 10% if they bought all at once. (with the sell walls in front of 100 it was actually much less than that earlier. I think just 3 dollars increment cost a million

mt gox appears to have increased their verification capacity and are processing faster now. The queue should empty faster but I don't know what the queue is. With only 100k coins on the market... if 100k new people come they would drive the price up to just get 1 single coin.

on a down note... it seems like mt gox is surviving but we are losing other exchanges. Bitfloors bank shut them down. Bitcoin24 shut down (but I heard some rumor that they will go up again?). All those projects for new exchanges that are in the works are probably still months or years away.

bitcoins press coverage continues to increase rather than decrease. Publications all over the world in many countries are releasing news... potentially expanding the audience of people that know of bitcoin to the many millions

I panic sold a good deal of coins at 55 should I try to day trade to get them back? It seems hard.

The weekend is coming so funds should halt which means we might see a drop at some point but will it be below 100?

the western union news was really interesting. before it was just a rumor of sorts. Now it's sort of official that they are looking at bitcoin. They are a huge company and could be the catalyst that bitcoin needs.

is it just me or are we jumping even more than before the crash? just today it was at like 91 in the morning and now it's at 111. 20% one day with no sign of retraction?