Topic: Kelly Criterion question in connection with Moneypot and RHavar (Read 499 times)

first of all thx for not using words like

idiot
moron
Fud
etc

Rhavar and Dogedigital are thinking when using those words that will help them to hide their mistakes and it will let me look bad. yes it works with children and sig spammers

your answer is 100% correct when saying
We know that the jackpot was winnable and has been proved by the NotTardy win. What your site represented was the true and winnable jackpot that was funded from the MoneyPot bankroll.

but I am sorry to tell you that also you are terrible wrong with your answer but I blame RHavar for this misunderstanding and I again agree with him that sometimes he is a real asshole ( according to his own opinion) . lets wait for RHavar to correct his postings here or in the soon opened scam accusation thread. Dogedigital and all MP owners are also invited to comment on the Jackpot illusion comment.

let me give you an hint. our lottery game never had a Jackpot!

if it was a Jackpot illusion as RHavar wrote then the Jackpot cant be won! easy as that. but we know that the Jackpot was won many times so it was not an illusion IMO. but if you guys insist that it was an illusion then you insist on saying that you cheated the players. though I dont know how you did this? faking bet IDs? I have no clue and I dont believe this. IMO RHavar is just bullshitting because he doesnt know what I am talking about and he has no clue how our app worked. yes he knew that the investors need to have the min +EV so a bet is accepted

I am also asking the MP owners to give us some bet IDs of our Jackpots winners.

edit
I forgot to ask you for the answer.
Bank Roll is 1000 BTC
game has an HE of 9.22%
1x Kelly

what is the max amount that can be won?

Ryan isn't saying that you faked the jackpot's winnable amount. We know that the jackpot was winnable and has been proved by the NotTardy win. What your site represented was the true and winnable jackpot that was funded from the MoneyPot bankroll.

Ryan is saying that the progression was an illusion in the sense that there were no coins specifically set apart for it in the bankroll. Any win would come directly from the bankroll and not a separate divide. Slot machines work in a similar format.

So for arguments sake, Ryan is right that neither ownership group stole any bitcoins as they were just a represented amount and not a factual partition, and you (JPR) are right that the jackpot was winnable. Nobody scammed anyone as the jackpot was winnable and has been paid out on numerous occasions for different amounts.

if I missed the fact that you are one of the old or new MP owner then I apologize

but if I am right and you are not one of the old or new MP owners then I ask you to take your nose out of their a**

how could we fake a progressive jackpot and Moneypot would let us? Moneypot should never let app owners fake a jackpot that cant be won!
lets see if there are some users out there who could agree with me even my name is JPR

to be sure we are talking about the same Jackpot please tell me which Jackpot you are talking about?

you wrote:
Each bet your site placed on MoneyPot was completely atomic and the full bet details (possible payouts and probabilities) can be looked up on the page by entering in the bet id

please give me some bet IDs (links) to look this up

Ummm ok? Each bet your site placed on MoneyPot was completely atomic and the full bet details (possible payouts and probabilities) can be looked up on the page by entering in the bet id. Furthermore, each bet is provably fair which allows you to verify the bet hits the correct payout you specified. The very fact your site did have some large winners (60+ bitcoin?) makes it pretty evident that things were working as intended.

The entire jackpot on your site was just an illusion. Not in the sense that it was unwinnable (it was), but in the sense there was never any money put aside exclusively for it. Your site just had gave users a smaller-and-smaller chance of winning a bigger-and-bigger jackpot, which gave the impression of a cumulative jackpot. But when your site shut down (or MoneyPot changed hangs), there was no "jackpot" money per se. So the idea that you wait almost 2 years, and now start accusing me of stealing an illusionary jackpot would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad. I really have no intentions of interacting with you further, so I'll reference this post in my feedback to you, incase someone is wondering why I'm ignoring your frivolous claims.

Soo you are complaining that your app didn't pay the jackpot which you put in?
If I didn't know how you actually faked that jackpot then I would say that you are the scammer here. However I do know how it worked, and that is without moneypot involved other than taking custom bets like they do with everyone.

If you don't know how your app works then are you really jpr or did you buy his bitcointalk account?

If you missed the last explanation, your app worked like this:
There were multiple outcomes to each bet, one of these was the "jackpot" which had a small chance of being won and was done like any other dice roll. The amount you would win went up everytime and the chance to win it went down to keep the house edge at 1%
That is how you faked having a progressive jackpot and just added another dice outcomw.

To me this just shows how much of a scumbag you really are, especially now you try to blame moneypot for your previous deception.

as old Moneypot owner and new Moneypot owners dont want to answer this simple question and are telling me that our Jackpot was an illusion I will open soon open a scam accusation because they cheated our customers

again quoting it very quick so you cant delete it

I will never put you or anyone on  my ignore list and you will never be ignored cause I like people like you trying to put down other people in a quite primitive way and same time thinking you are smart. as you said yourself that you are some times an asshole and I fully agree with you I even would say more than sometimes

the problem with you is that your hate against JPR is overwhelming you and making you blind (btw you are not alone)

trust me that you will answer my future postings. I didnt answer yet (but I will)  your other posting in the other thread with full of lies. I will open a scam accusation against you as the old MP owner and against the new owners if you still insist that our Racer Jackpot was an illusion. be smart and rethink it!

the new MP owners are invited to post their opinion if our Jackpot was an illusion?

every provably air game is an illusion because the outcome is know in advance and the animation is shown after the outcome. this is the price for a provably fair game. I love provably fair games and hope that also fiat games will follow

rethink your posting now. sit back and read it again and again till you find out your mistake. in this case I dont accuse you that your answer is by purpose but it looks you didnt think it through or IMO it is just a misunderstanding.

your answer is maybe for someone else but not for the game I am talking about. I repeat my question and lets do it easier for you and forget the 9.22% HE and lets take 1% HE

casino owner uses 1x Kelly for his Bank Roll

any game with 1 % HE

Bank Roll is 1000 BTC

what is the max possible win for the player with one bet?

maybe I need to edit the Poll to this question

Funnily enough, I just added this guy to my ignore list. But it doesn't work on top-level topics, so I'll indulge him for one last time.


The only reason you think it's a simple maths question is because you don't understand the problem domain. Multi-outcome bets like your site did (e.g. having a win, lose and jackpot) are sufficiently complex that I was never able to even find an analytical solution. If you want to learn how to solve it, look at: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/662104/kelly-criterion-with-more-than-two-outcomes


The first step however is to normalize the bet into how investors see it (e.g. how much they will make or lose after commission for each outcome). One you have it in the format:  [Probability, ProfitIfEventOccurs]  for each outcome, you can run the kelly formula (see the stackexchange question) that will tell you how much of your bankroll to risk (again from investors point of view). Once you've done this, you can map it back onto the original bet to determine if it's "kelly compliant" or not.

If you want to do it in a simpler way, you can establish a lower-bound if you wanted by converting your multiple outcome bet into a binary one. The key is preserving both the house edge and the largest payout. Then you need to normalize it from investors point of view (e.g. by looking it after commissions) while keeping it binary, where one of the options is "lose entire wager". After that, once you have the house edge (say E) it means that to be kelly compliant investors should never risk more than E*bankrollSize. Which means that you have established a lower-bound of that the highest payout in your game should allow gamblers can be allowed to win E*bankrollSize-comission.

I want to prove that we used a 1x Kelly even Moneypot used maybe at a given time 3.33 Kelly as RHavar says it was 3.33 x
and we didnt turn "good bets" into "bad bets"

it was Moneypot that used KC for their Bank Roll and they should never use 3.33 x Kelly if they did so! if they did use 3.33 x Kelly then they anyway tried to kill themselves and the Investors money and RHavar told them many times to not use more than 2x Kelly (btw I told them too)

in case the right answer is not in the Q&A please post the right answer

the following was posted by RHavar

link https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.20653362

-The real problem though was with some of the later changes under the new ownership, they would accept bets up to a 3.33x kelly (irrc?). For anyone not familiar with the kelly stuff, any bet >2x kelly is actively harmful for investors (at least in terms of expected br growth). So the only way this is really sane is if you expect very little high kelly bets, and get a lot of extra publicity due to it (e.g. the max profit is higher).   But the problem with JPRs style bets, is he effectively turned "good bets" into "bad bets" now.-

just to show that RHavar is only bullshitting against JPR (the reason is well known) I made this Poll because RHavar did not want to answer the Poll question (after asking a few times) because the answer would show that he is trying to hide something and he wants JPR casino look bad

please take the Poll serious because it will be easy to see who is serious because it is a simple math question

Moneypot could help if they will give the exact Bank Roll on the day of the hit and the Kelly multiplier they used

thank you