Kinda scary fact (actually not that scary)

applesRyummy

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 08:52:02 PM

Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 07:13:01 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 02:22:38 PM

Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 04, 2015, 12:01:39 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

I have only recently started trading on bitfinex so this may or may not be something new. One thing that I have noticed is that bitfinex is giving a warning to people to either deposit funds or close their position once their tradable balance is below zero, meaning they cannot increase their position. If this is not new then they are probably trying to encourage customers to close their loosing positions themselves in an effort to avoid them closing several customer's positions all at the time time, causing a cascading effect on the price

That is what is known as a margin call. Wink

That is one step before forced liquidation.

Interesting. I was under the impression that you get a margin call only when your equity falls below the required maintenance margin level. I have always had well above the maintenance margin level.

Hmm, that's strange. I've never seen anything like that then. The only warning I've ever had was when I had a margin call. They have changed the way things work there 2 or 3 times since then so this may actually be something new. Undecided

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood what you were asking.

Well my interpretation was that they were trying to get people to use less leverage. There are just under 70k BTC worth of USD swaps outstanding on bitfinex which is just under the last 24 hours volume (which is already elevated). If they have to start liquidating positions on any kind of a large scale the price could potentially fall very far very fast

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 07:13:01 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 02:22:38 PM

Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 04, 2015, 12:01:39 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

I have only recently started trading on bitfinex so this may or may not be something new. One thing that I have noticed is that bitfinex is giving a warning to people to either deposit funds or close their position once their tradable balance is below zero, meaning they cannot increase their position. If this is not new then they are probably trying to encourage customers to close their loosing positions themselves in an effort to avoid them closing several customer's positions all at the time time, causing a cascading effect on the price

That is what is known as a margin call. Wink

That is one step before forced liquidation.

Interesting. I was under the impression that you get a margin call only when your equity falls below the required maintenance margin level. I have always had well above the maintenance margin level.

Hmm, that's strange. I've never seen anything like that then. The only warning I've ever had was when I had a margin call. They have changed the way things work there 2 or 3 times since then so this may actually be something new. Undecided

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood what you were asking.

applesRyummy

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Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 02:22:38 PM

Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 04, 2015, 12:01:39 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

I have only recently started trading on bitfinex so this may or may not be something new. One thing that I have noticed is that bitfinex is giving a warning to people to either deposit funds or close their position once their tradable balance is below zero, meaning they cannot increase their position. If this is not new then they are probably trying to encourage customers to close their loosing positions themselves in an effort to avoid them closing several customer's positions all at the time time, causing a cascading effect on the price

That is what is known as a margin call. Wink

That is one step before forced liquidation.

Interesting. I was under the impression that you get a margin call only when your equity falls below the required maintenance margin level. I have always had well above the maintenance margin level.

RyNinDaCleM

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Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: applesRyummy on January 04, 2015, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 04, 2015, 12:01:39 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

I have only recently started trading on bitfinex so this may or may not be something new. One thing that I have noticed is that bitfinex is giving a warning to people to either deposit funds or close their position once their tradable balance is below zero, meaning they cannot increase their position. If this is not new then they are probably trying to encourage customers to close their loosing positions themselves in an effort to avoid them closing several customer's positions all at the time time, causing a cascading effect on the price

That is what is known as a margin call. Wink

That is one step before forced liquidation.

applesRyummy

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 04, 2015, 12:01:39 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

I have only recently started trading on bitfinex so this may or may not be something new. One thing that I have noticed is that bitfinex is giving a warning to people to either deposit funds or close their position once their tradable balance is below zero, meaning they cannot increase their position. If this is not new then they are probably trying to encourage customers to close their loosing positions themselves in an effort to avoid them closing several customer's positions all at the time time, causing a cascading effect on the price

twiifm

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: twiifm on January 04, 2015, 01:15:49 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on January 04, 2015, 01:01:21 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.
edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze?

You guys are assholes. Is the price gonna go up or down?

He's saying a sudden spike can trigger a short squeeze cause the BTC swap is high. USD swap is low or normal so no fear of margin call. This bear has to do your trading for you? Sheesh. I don't how accurate it is to analyze bitfinex. Are they a big exchange. Do they lead or follow?

Ok thanks for spelling it out, still doesn't help me. I don't understand how swaps work, not your problem, I have some learning to do. Awesome stuff tho, you guys who can understand it have my respect.

Think of swap as a loan w interest. USD swap is longs borrow USD to buy BTC. BTC swaps are shorts borrowing BTC to short sell. Technically they are derivatives for hedging. If you long dollars, you sell swaps and collect interest to hedge moves against you. If you are long BTC you lend BTC for interest to hedge if price moves against you.

If the price moves too far against swap holders direction they are forced to close their positions (margin called). The sudden tsunami of short covering causes a short squeeze. A tsunami of long positions getting margin called creates a flash crash

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: BTCtrader71 on January 04, 2015, 01:01:21 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

[img]

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.

edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze?

EDIT: I guess you already answered my question, and the answer is yes, if I am following you correctly. (I'm not sure I know what you mean by '2300 BTC worth of risk'.) If so, then I am wondering: can we estimate how many $ it would take to trigger a squeeze, and estimate what the profit would be?

Well, that 2300 BTC of risk was about 2 weeks ago, so the whole picture has changed now. It would be hard to do such analysis as figuring a Dollar amount and price target based solely on that with such crude charts. Since much of that large spike is toward the lows in price, the squeeze risk is fairly high with a sudden change in direction. Exact numbers I don't have right now and it's late for me, so I'm not going to figure that out right now, sorry.

By $x of risk, I mean the amount of funds that are somewhat in immediate danger. You have -12M at about the $500 mark. Since then we have +6M and -3M which leaves about $3M worth that are new since the $500 range which has been a while now. The new spike in USD swaps are (right now) a non issue because they won't get too red before the next bounce.

twiifm

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on January 04, 2015, 01:01:21 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.
edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze?

You guys are assholes. Is the price gonna go up or down?

He's saying a sudden spike can trigger a short squeeze cause the BTC swap is high. USD swap is low or normal so no fear of margin call. This bear has to do your trading for you? Sheesh. I don't how accurate it is to analyze bitfinex. Are they a big exchange. Do they lead or follow?

kryptopojken

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Lol agree

TrollinU

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https://eloncity.io/

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on January 04, 2015, 01:01:21 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.
edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze?

You guys are assholes. Is the price gonna go up or down?

Since this kinda stuff couldn't be more obvious to even the most casual of observer, figure out the price on your own. Go on, chop chop Roll Eyes

BTCtrader71

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.

edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze?

EDIT: I guess you already answered my question, and the answer is yes, if I am following you correctly. (I'm not sure I know what you mean by '2300 BTC worth of risk'.) If so, then I am wondering: can we estimate how many $ it would take to trigger a squeeze, and estimate what the profit would be?

kryptopojken

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 04, 2015, 12:42:02 AM

I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.

edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

Great post!

RyNinDaCleM

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I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little.

edit:
The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride.
When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze.

kryptopojken

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Merit: 532

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:58:56 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

It's actually been relatively steady since August. Last peak was first week of December at 25M...That's what bothers me, when did these positions open?

Xiaoxiao

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The Golden Rule Rules

Quote from: kryptopojken on January 03, 2015, 11:57:23 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Fair enough. Do you know when these long positions were started? If it's fairly recently, I can understand why, but if it was throughout the year, then lol.

kryptopojken

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Activity: 767

Merit: 532

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on January 03, 2015, 11:54:30 PM

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

I'm assuming supply of fiat is huge?

Xiaoxiao

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The Golden Rule Rules

then why is interest rate for usd so low still?

kryptopojken

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Margin longs on bfx are still at about $20M

Topic: Kinda scary fact (actually not that scary) (Read 1480 times)