ATP. Pune: Ivashka - Ojede Lara: Ivashka (-3.5) @ -106 / 1.94
Why: I just love Ivashka's form this week and he can't ruin it with loss to Ojede Lara. The spaniard took his first ATP-level win against Vesely in 1st round, who, by reports, was dreadful in that match. So in normal circumstances Ivashka should be on top here without breaking a sweet.
Topic: Kobradobra's pick (NBA, NHL, tennis) (Read 274 times)
ATP. Pune: Kukushkin - Djere: Kukushkin SETS (-1.5) @ +104 / 2.04
Why: Kukushkin is a really solid HC player and seems like in good conditions. His serve form against Albot was convincing so I think he should win this one comfortably. Djere is still a dark horse on this surface to me, even after good win against Copil.
Why: Kukushkin is a really solid HC player and seems like in good conditions. His serve form against Albot was convincing so I think he should win this one comfortably. Djere is still a dark horse on this surface to me, even after good win against Copil.
ATP. Pune. Bemelmans - Monteiro: Bemelmans to win @ -106 / 1.94
Why: I don't know if Ruben is injured or something, but he should never be at even odds against Monteiro at HC. Monteiro is a really bad player on this surface and his biggest win on HC was a blatant match fix. Once again, there is a chance of Bemelmans being injured, because he should be a clear favorite to win this one...even with his ability to choke away matches.
Overall: -3.20 +13=1-16
Why: I don't know if Ruben is injured or something, but he should never be at even odds against Monteiro at HC. Monteiro is a really bad player on this surface and his biggest win on HC was a blatant match fix. Once again, there is a chance of Bemelmans being injured, because he should be a clear favorite to win this one...even with his ability to choke away matches.
Overall: -3.20 +13=1-16
ATP. Pune. Ivashka - Nagal: Ivashka (-2) -108 / 1.93
Why: Again, Ivashka's ranking doesn't reflect his actual ability and level. He is a soild top-200 or even top-150 player with a chances to be a regular main draw player at Slams in future. He is good on HC and is playing good ball here. While Nagal is no pushover for a player from India, he is still worse than Ivashka. Interestingly they played only once...here...at Pune. Ivashka won 2-0.
Overall: -2.20 +13=1-15
Why: Again, Ivashka's ranking doesn't reflect his actual ability and level. He is a soild top-200 or even top-150 player with a chances to be a regular main draw player at Slams in future. He is good on HC and is playing good ball here. While Nagal is no pushover for a player from India, he is still worse than Ivashka. Interestingly they played only once...here...at Pune. Ivashka won 2-0.
Overall: -2.20 +13=1-15
ATP. Pune: Ramanthan - Carballes-Baena: Ramanthan to win @-135 / 1.74
Why: Ramanthan is a better hardcourt player of the two, with better serve and higher ceiling. While Baena is surely more consistent player here, he is still very limited on HC and rarely plays on it. So should be a winnable match for Ramkumar.
Overall: -3.13 +12=1-15
Why: Ramanthan is a better hardcourt player of the two, with better serve and higher ceiling. While Baena is surely more consistent player here, he is still very limited on HC and rarely plays on it. So should be a winnable match for Ramkumar.
Overall: -3.13 +12=1-15
ATP. Doha Q. Tsitsipas - Ymer: Tsitsipas to win @ -168 / 1.6
Why: What a value. Tsitsipas is head and shoulder above inconsistent and overrated Ymer which not only reflected in ATP rankings, but also in ELO. Ymer's preferable surface is clay, while Stefanis is surely better on hardcourts. Despite Tsi being younger, he is more mature as a player of the two as well.
Overall: -3.87 +11=1-15
Why: What a value. Tsitsipas is head and shoulder above inconsistent and overrated Ymer which not only reflected in ATP rankings, but also in ELO. Ymer's preferable surface is clay, while Stefanis is surely better on hardcourts. Despite Tsi being younger, he is more mature as a player of the two as well.
Overall: -3.87 +11=1-15
ATP. Pune Q: Ivashka - Taberner: Ivashka -4.00 -101 / 1.99
Why: Ivashka proved his decent from in a previous match and has a winnable one against Taberner. The spaniard has little-to-no experience at hard at this level and his serve rating is quite poor. He barely won his 1st match here and the odds for Ilya to win dropped considerably. There is a chance that Taberner is dealing with health issues.
Overall: -4.47 +10=1-15
Why: Ivashka proved his decent from in a previous match and has a winnable one against Taberner. The spaniard has little-to-no experience at hard at this level and his serve rating is quite poor. He barely won his 1st match here and the odds for Ilya to win dropped considerably. There is a chance that Taberner is dealing with health issues.
Overall: -4.47 +10=1-15
ATP. Doha Q: Basic - Vatutin: Basic (-2) @1,92 (-109)
Why: Basic now has a peak Elo rating of his career and also is a clearly superior hardcourt player here. His serve index is higher of the two and gamestyle is more suitable for the surface. Vatutin odds are overrated because of his 2017 success, but it was on clay. He won only one match vs top-200 player on hard last year and it was against another claycourter (Djere).
Overall: -5.46 +9=1-15
Why: Basic now has a peak Elo rating of his career and also is a clearly superior hardcourt player here. His serve index is higher of the two and gamestyle is more suitable for the surface. Vatutin odds are overrated because of his 2017 success, but it was on clay. He won only one match vs top-200 player on hard last year and it was against another claycourter (Djere).
Overall: -5.46 +9=1-15
ATP. Pune Q: Ivashka - Skugor: Ivashka to win @ 2.2 (+120)
Why: I think Skugor is favorite here only because of H2H (0-2), but Ilya is the better player of the two. Ivashka is 230th in the world, but in reality he is top-200 player if not for his injury last autumn. Skugor is a doubles specialist so Ivashka has to be more motivated to win this one.
Overall: -6.38 +8=1-15
Why: I think Skugor is favorite here only because of H2H (0-2), but Ilya is the better player of the two. Ivashka is 230th in the world, but in reality he is top-200 player if not for his injury last autumn. Skugor is a doubles specialist so Ivashka has to be more motivated to win this one.
Overall: -6.38 +8=1-15
Abu Dhabi Mubadala open. Bautista-Agut vs Djokovic: Agut +3,5 @1.93 (-108) by by BitcoinRush
Why: Djokovic never had it easy against Roberto, losing sets to him in 3 of last 5 matches. With Agut intensity and return game Novak most likely will need a time to find his rhytm. Even in Djokovic's best years he was never convincing against the spaniard. I think Agut has a good chance to win it all.
Overall: -7,58 +7=1-15
Why: Djokovic never had it easy against Roberto, losing sets to him in 3 of last 5 matches. With Agut intensity and return game Novak most likely will need a time to find his rhytm. Even in Djokovic's best years he was never convincing against the spaniard. I think Agut has a good chance to win it all.
Overall: -7,58 +7=1-15
Phily at Portland: Phily to win @ 2.24 (+124) by by BitcoinRush
Why: Wildcard bet here as the active odds at a moment will change in few hours. And I think Phily will drop under 2.0 in few hours since Embid will be in the lineup, while Lillard will be out. And even if Damien is in he'll be rusty and Blazers actually are not that bad without him (.500). That being said Portland are awful at home this season (7-10), while Phily is a good road team.
Overall: -7,58 +7=0-15
Why: Wildcard bet here as the active odds at a moment will change in few hours. And I think Phily will drop under 2.0 in few hours since Embid will be in the lineup, while Lillard will be out. And even if Damien is in he'll be rusty and Blazers actually are not that bad without him (.500). That being said Portland are awful at home this season (7-10), while Phily is a good road team.
Overall: -7,58 +7=0-15
Minnesota at Milwaukee: Over 211,5 @ 1.96 (-104) by BitcoinRush
Why: 11 out of 17 games at MIL went Over and now they are hosting one of the worst defensive teams in the league (26), while both team are in top-10 at Offensive production this year. Yeah, they are playing slow pace. Also both team's last 5 matches went OVER. So lets trust the trend.
Overall: -6.58 +7=0-14
Why: 11 out of 17 games at MIL went Over and now they are hosting one of the worst defensive teams in the league (26), while both team are in top-10 at Offensive production this year. Yeah, they are playing slow pace. Also both team's last 5 matches went OVER. So lets trust the trend.
Overall: -6.58 +7=0-14
Portland at Lakers: Over 200 @ 1.94 (-106)
Why: Portland vastly underperforming in last few matches in offense and will play without Lillard. But IMO it leads to more team-offense with threes. LAL will be without Ingram, so I expect many threes from them too. LAL leads league in pace, so even with average FG% teams should be able to top 200.
Overall: -5,58 +7=0-13
Why: Portland vastly underperforming in last few matches in offense and will play without Lillard. But IMO it leads to more team-offense with threes. LAL will be without Ingram, so I expect many threes from them too. LAL leads league in pace, so even with average FG% teams should be able to top 200.
Overall: -5,58 +7=0-13
NHL. Buffalo at Carolina: Over 5.5 @ 2.14 (+114)
Why: Teams played few days ago and it was a 4-4 draw in regulation. The Buffalo holds the worst offensive record in the league, and now is close to tanking-mode. So there is a room for improvisations. Carolina is actually one of the hottest team in the league right now even if the lost to TOR (1-8). The goalfests is a really common thing in PNC Arena.
Overall: -4,58 +7=0-12
Why: Teams played few days ago and it was a 4-4 draw in regulation. The Buffalo holds the worst offensive record in the league, and now is close to tanking-mode. So there is a room for improvisations. Carolina is actually one of the hottest team in the league right now even if the lost to TOR (1-8). The goalfests is a really common thing in PNC Arena.
Overall: -4,58 +7=0-12
NHL. Ottawa at Florida: Ottawa to win @2.15 (+115) by BitcoinRush
Why: While both OTT and FLA are on the bottom of the East, Sens clearly have a chance to climb higher. Team scored at least 3 in last 4 games and could have been at winning streak in not a strange lapses at Tampa and vs MIN. Fla also improved, but the team won last two due to unusual great performances from Riemer. With Sens' improved offense it might be not the case this match.
Overall: -5.72 +6=0-12
Why: While both OTT and FLA are on the bottom of the East, Sens clearly have a chance to climb higher. Team scored at least 3 in last 4 games and could have been at winning streak in not a strange lapses at Tampa and vs MIN. Fla also improved, but the team won last two due to unusual great performances from Riemer. With Sens' improved offense it might be not the case this match.
Overall: -5.72 +6=0-12
NBA. New Orleans at Miami: Miami to win @2.91 (+191) by BitcoinRush
Why: You can't trust New Orleans in a game vs WNBA team...The most inconsistent team in the league and also is quite bad at road (lost 7 of last 10). The Heat probably will be gassed since the team is lacked bunch of key players, but Spoelstra is good at embarrassing low-end league coaches like Gentry and Heat is actually playing their best basketball this season in last few weeks, so odds are very attractive.
Overall: -4,72 +6=0-11
Why: You can't trust New Orleans in a game vs WNBA team...The most inconsistent team in the league and also is quite bad at road (lost 7 of last 10). The Heat probably will be gassed since the team is lacked bunch of key players, but Spoelstra is good at embarrassing low-end league coaches like Gentry and Heat is actually playing their best basketball this season in last few weeks, so odds are very attractive.
Overall: -4,72 +6=0-11
NBA. New Orleans at Orlando: Over 219,5 @ 2.0 (-100) by BitcoinRush
Why:Two teams from bottom-8 in terms of defensive efficiency and top-8 by pace. They are shooting more than 60 threes per match combined with 37+%, while both are also bottom-10 in terms of 3P% allowed with nearly 58 attempts per game from opponents. Should be really fun...
Overall: -3,72 +6=0-10
Why:Two teams from bottom-8 in terms of defensive efficiency and top-8 by pace. They are shooting more than 60 threes per match combined with 37+%, while both are also bottom-10 in terms of 3P% allowed with nearly 58 attempts per game from opponents. Should be really fun...
Overall: -3,72 +6=0-10
NBA. Washington at Brooklyn: Washington (-5) @ 1,94 (-106) by BitcoinRush
Why: Washington is still the best in the league in defending perimeter and last match here Wizards limited BKN to 23.3% shooting from 3. They lost because of own awful shooting (4/22). Now, with Wall back and improving match by match, Washington is expected to win this match comfortably. This team will find their mojo sooner or later.
Overall: -2,72 +6=0-9
Why: Washington is still the best in the league in defending perimeter and last match here Wizards limited BKN to 23.3% shooting from 3. They lost because of own awful shooting (4/22). Now, with Wall back and improving match by match, Washington is expected to win this match comfortably. This team will find their mojo sooner or later.
Overall: -2,72 +6=0-9
San Antonio at Utah: Under 197 @1.90 (-110) by BitcoinRush
Why: Two teams with lowest pace in NBA. San Antonio also holds one of the best defensive efficiency in the league and will play without Kawhy and Tony. Utah allowed their opponents to score more than 230 in last who combined, so surely coach Snyder will find a solution to end this kind of D.
Overall: -1,72 +6=0-8
Why: Two teams with lowest pace in NBA. San Antonio also holds one of the best defensive efficiency in the league and will play without Kawhy and Tony. Utah allowed their opponents to score more than 230 in last who combined, so surely coach Snyder will find a solution to end this kind of D.
Overall: -1,72 +6=0-8
Detroit at Dallas: Under 197.0 @ 1.97 (-101) by BitcoinRush
Why: Hello 26th and 20th teams by PACE. Both Dallas and Detroit averages 98 pps at December with Dallas shooting better than season averages, and Detroit worse. But the thing is that Dallas allowing to score nearly 46% of opponents 3s this month which is ridiculous. This percentage should go down and Pistons, who are overperforming in offense in last 3, due to a slip.
Overall: -2,72 +5=0-8
Why: Hello 26th and 20th teams by PACE. Both Dallas and Detroit averages 98 pps at December with Dallas shooting better than season averages, and Detroit worse. But the thing is that Dallas allowing to score nearly 46% of opponents 3s this month which is ridiculous. This percentage should go down and Pistons, who are overperforming in offense in last 3, due to a slip.
Overall: -2,72 +5=0-8
NBA. Phoenix at LA Clippers: Phoenix to win @2.76 (+176) at BitcoinRush
Why: This is just a great value. Why? Because Clippers winning this match only if Lou on fire, and I give a 50/50 chance for that, not 65/35 as bookies suggest. Phoenix are actually much better without defensive hole named Booker and also a quite good at road this season (7 wins already). LAC are just absolutely awful offensively, scoring only 42.4% FG in December.
Overall: -1,72 +5=0-7
Why: This is just a great value. Why? Because Clippers winning this match only if Lou on fire, and I give a 50/50 chance for that, not 65/35 as bookies suggest. Phoenix are actually much better without defensive hole named Booker and also a quite good at road this season (7 wins already). LAC are just absolutely awful offensively, scoring only 42.4% FG in December.
Overall: -1,72 +5=0-7
NBA. Indiana at Atlanta: Over 214,5 @ 1.92 (-109) by BitcoinRush
Why: If Hawks managed to score 110 against Heat and top over with 214 points...imagine what it would like against Indiana. Both team are shooting good 3 and are awful at defending perimeter allowing their opponents to score more than 37,5% of threes combined in 63 shots...While scoring more than 38% in 54 shots combined. 3-pointer fest here.
Overall: -0,72 +5=0-6
Why: If Hawks managed to score 110 against Heat and top over with 214 points...imagine what it would like against Indiana. Both team are shooting good 3 and are awful at defending perimeter allowing their opponents to score more than 37,5% of threes combined in 63 shots...While scoring more than 38% in 54 shots combined. 3-pointer fest here.
Overall: -0,72 +5=0-6
NHL. Minnesota at Ottawa: Ottawa to win @1.87 (-115) by BitcoinRush
Why: A must-win game for Ottawa after horrible streak (1 win in 13 matches). Sens won two in a row, while Wild lost two in a row. Minny won only 1 out of 9 last game in regulation time and 4 times at SO/OT and 5 in a row in OT/SO in general, so the team due to loss streak. Also Wild won only 2 out of last 6 road games.
Overall: +0,28 +5=0-5
Why: A must-win game for Ottawa after horrible streak (1 win in 13 matches). Sens won two in a row, while Wild lost two in a row. Minny won only 1 out of 9 last game in regulation time and 4 times at SO/OT and 5 in a row in OT/SO in general, so the team due to loss streak. Also Wild won only 2 out of last 6 road games.
Overall: +0,28 +5=0-5
NBA. Boston at Indiana: Boston to win @ 1.75 (-134) by BitcoinRush
Why: Indiana is struggling against teams with good defense. For instance, Pacers record vs teams from top-10 in D efficiency 2-7 and only 2 wins were in money time (97-94 vs Spurs, 107-104 vs Toronto), while record vs teams from top-10 in Offensive efficiency is 7-4. Also this back to back and Boston is a bad matchup (lost 4 in a row).
Overall: +1,28 +5=0-4
Why: Indiana is struggling against teams with good defense. For instance, Pacers record vs teams from top-10 in D efficiency 2-7 and only 2 wins were in money time (97-94 vs Spurs, 107-104 vs Toronto), while record vs teams from top-10 in Offensive efficiency is 7-4. Also this back to back and Boston is a bad matchup (lost 4 in a row).
Overall: +1,28 +5=0-4
NBA. Philadelphia at Chicago: Phila -2,5 @ 1.99 (-101) by BitcoinRush
Why: Chicago won 5 in a row, with 4 out 5 wins in clutch. Team has been shooting lights out by its own standards in last 5 and it surely won't last forever. Meanwhile Phila lost 5 out 6, with 4 out of 5 losses in clutch time...So this meeting should even up this trends. Also Phily lost ONLY ONCE on a road to a team under .50 (current) - it was @ SAC when D'aron Fox hit a game winner and Phily blew a two possession lead in last minute.
Overall: 0,53 +4=0-4
Why: Chicago won 5 in a row, with 4 out 5 wins in clutch. Team has been shooting lights out by its own standards in last 5 and it surely won't last forever. Meanwhile Phila lost 5 out 6, with 4 out of 5 losses in clutch time...So this meeting should even up this trends. Also Phily lost ONLY ONCE on a road to a team under .50 (current) - it was @ SAC when D'aron Fox hit a game winner and Phily blew a two possession lead in last minute.
Overall: 0,53 +4=0-4
NBA. Indiana at Brooklyn: Indiana (-3) @ 2.00 (+100) by BitcoinRush
Why: Indiana barely lost to OKC and DET in last in two un-favourable matchups, but was close to winning despite poor FG and 3PG. Brooklyn is way too dependable on 3P shooting and playing fast tempo which is suitable for IND style. Also IND lost only ONCE (OKC) to a team under .50 (current record).
Overall: +1,53 +4=0-3
Why: Indiana barely lost to OKC and DET in last in two un-favourable matchups, but was close to winning despite poor FG and 3PG. Brooklyn is way too dependable on 3P shooting and playing fast tempo which is suitable for IND style. Also IND lost only ONCE (OKC) to a team under .50 (current record).
Overall: +1,53 +4=0-3
NHL. Montreal at Ottawa (Winter Classic): Under 5.5 @1.87 (-116) By BitcoinRush
Why: Both teams lacks truly skilled offensive and fast players which could be critical in Winter Classic. Ottawa will rely on their physicality and try to keep composure in D. Montreal inconsistent in offense in last 7: 2, 6, 10, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 5 out of 6 last Sens matches went Under.
Overall: +0.53 +3=0-3
Why: Both teams lacks truly skilled offensive and fast players which could be critical in Winter Classic. Ottawa will rely on their physicality and try to keep composure in D. Montreal inconsistent in offense in last 7: 2, 6, 10, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 5 out of 6 last Sens matches went Under.
Overall: +0.53 +3=0-3
NBA. LA Clippers at Washington: over 209,5 @ 1.9 (-109) by BitcoinRush
Why: Both teams are in Under trend last games: LAC is 5 out 7 on the road and WSH 6 out of 7 overall. The only OVER game for Wiz were...at Clippers. WSH underperfomrning in offense too often and with Wall back it might change. The Clippers will rely on 3s with Gallinari and Rivers out.
Overall: -0.34 +2=0-3
Why: Both teams are in Under trend last games: LAC is 5 out 7 on the road and WSH 6 out of 7 overall. The only OVER game for Wiz were...at Clippers. WSH underperfomrning in offense too often and with Wall back it might change. The Clippers will rely on 3s with Gallinari and Rivers out.
Overall: -0.34 +2=0-3
NBA. Miami at Charlotte: Miami to win @2.71 (-171) by BitcoinRush
Why: Heat are playing decent ball bar a horrible 4th quarter vs Portland and are 8-6 at road this season. The only loss on a road to team with negative record (current) was in 1st match of the season. Miami won 2 out of 4 last in Charlotte, while Hornets are struggling with injuries - even though Kemba, Batum and Kaminsky are going to play this one, their are far from their physical best. Good value here.
Overall: +0.66 +2=0-2
Why: Heat are playing decent ball bar a horrible 4th quarter vs Portland and are 8-6 at road this season. The only loss on a road to team with negative record (current) was in 1st match of the season. Miami won 2 out of 4 last in Charlotte, while Hornets are struggling with injuries - even though Kemba, Batum and Kaminsky are going to play this one, their are far from their physical best. Good value here.
Overall: +0.66 +2=0-2
Lakers at Cleveland: Lakers +9,5 @1.95 (-105) by BitcoinRush
Why: LA are playing nice defense in last three and looks like Ball guy is finally stepping up. CLE ATS record at home is 2-12-1 and looks like Wade is out again and maybe Love too. Lakers bench is just much better and team improved after the last break.
Overall: -1.05
Why: LA are playing nice defense in last three and looks like Ball guy is finally stepping up. CLE ATS record at home is 2-12-1 and looks like Wade is out again and maybe Love too. Lakers bench is just much better and team improved after the last break.
Overall: -1.05
Chicago at Winnipeg: Winnipeg to win* @1.75 (-134) by BitcoinRush
Why: Even when Jets were a non-playoff and Chicago were a Western leader this matchup was a toss-up. Winnipeg won 4 out of 5 their last encounters and also lost only once in regulation time at home this season. CHI are just in decline and barely won their last 3 matches against outsiders.
*- OT and SO included
Overall: -2.0
Why: Even when Jets were a non-playoff and Chicago were a Western leader this matchup was a toss-up. Winnipeg won 4 out of 5 their last encounters and also lost only once in regulation time at home this season. CHI are just in decline and barely won their last 3 matches against outsiders.
*- OT and SO included
Overall: -2.0
Hi, decided to start a thread with betting tips. I'll try to beat the line of Bitcoinrush
1 bet = 1 unit
I'll start with CHI - UTAH (or UTAH @ CHI). I'm from Europe so we usually write a home team first. But i'll use and NA format (Utah at Chicago).
Utah - Chicago: Utah (-4) @ 1.91 (-110) by BitcoinRush
Why: CHI is surely tanking for Ayton/Doncic/Bamba and 4th win in a row would be well against season strategy, while Utah struggling in last matches mostly because of schedule. The CHI offense will find it hard to get cheap points. CHI overperfoming in offense last 3 matches, so it's due to a slip. Utah should get their shit together after 3 losses in a row.
Overall: -1.0
1 bet = 1 unit
I'll start with CHI - UTAH (or UTAH @ CHI). I'm from Europe so we usually write a home team first. But i'll use and NA format (Utah at Chicago).
Utah - Chicago: Utah (-4) @ 1.91 (-110) by BitcoinRush
Why: CHI is surely tanking for Ayton/Doncic/Bamba and 4th win in a row would be well against season strategy, while Utah struggling in last matches mostly because of schedule. The CHI offense will find it hard to get cheap points. CHI overperfoming in offense last 3 matches, so it's due to a slip. Utah should get their shit together after 3 losses in a row.
Overall: -1.0
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