Latest Price Surge Due To Delayed Halving Effect?

Kalamsid

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Quote from: lumeire on December 24, 2016, 01:28:15 PM

Quote from: spiderbrain on December 24, 2016, 12:08:40 AM

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

Could also be due to the holiday season coming around that's why people are buying in more coins for their stashes.

that right. The price rose a lot until the new year.

lumeire

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Quote from: spiderbrain on December 24, 2016, 12:08:40 AM

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

Could also be due to the holiday season coming around that's why people are buying in more coins for their stashes.

jjacob

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Quote from: spiderbrain on December 24, 2016, 12:08:40 AM

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

If this is indeed the driver, it has taken a long while for people to realize that there are lesser coins being generated. We are almost into 2017 now.
Bitcoin's market is way inefficient in this case. In other asset markets, public information is priced in instantaneously.

Kotone

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 22, 2016, 06:38:46 AM

The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

How if the halving is right now not the months everyone knows? Bitcoin price was really pretty impressive that it grows to fast without month waiting i was really amazed of what bitcoin price right now let's pray for good.

deadpoolx

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I think this is one of the factors that most contributes to the direction that Bitcoin is taking in the market, the halving effect is continuous. A more limited supply, allied to a growing demand and an underlying economy, causes the price to rise more steadily, and in an organic way, of course.

Red-Apple

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i doubt that is the reason.
all the halving effects have been seen after 2-3 months after the halving. and there may be some more effects but i doubt that they are directly enough to make the price go this high and this fast.

lionheart78

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I think no. Price increase is not due to delayed Halving effect. As far as I understand it, effect should be before the halving since halving has been known when it will happen. I think the price increase is still a manipulation of some group. Though there maybe a larger base user today than it was way back 2013 but there is still a big chance that a few circle of whales way back those years had gone up in numbers enabling them to effectively control the market. And they will be wiser today on not dumping a huge amount of bitcoin to cash out, they will do it without affecting the price (one indication is the dips in between the rise of prices).

BitcoinBarrel

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Just like in 2012-2013 the price of BTC doubled after the halving ($90 to $180), and so I am expecting a nearly 1000% growth from the next speculative bubble (2017) before settling at around $2200. Of course, with more volume and long-term stability, this could mean even higher gains. This is just my opinion.

Przemax

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Its not about the halving but more like a tendency of people to forget but stuff after a while. All ths mtgoxes and shits are forgotten by a general public. So bitcoin has not a bad smell of bad pr to it right now.

CoinCidental

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Quote from: piramida on December 22, 2016, 11:45:11 AM

That is one of the factors. As was the last time, halving limited the coin supply, so once the existing supply dried up and some event ignited buying, remaining sellside was gone and it fuelled a spike which brought more buyers -> rally.

exactly ,many factors overall but a shortage of coin supply is definately one of them ........

spiderbrain

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Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: d5000 on December 22, 2016, 11:40:00 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 22, 2016, 10:19:05 PM

The halving was already priced in because it was an expected event months before it was going to happen.

In part, you are right. The speculation on the halving is, in my opinion, the reason why the BTC price went up the whole first half of 2016.

The halving itself is not too important for the price: As I've pointed out several times in this forum, the only thing it did is that it lowered the growth of the money supply, but this growth is still is about 5% per year.

Quote

Bitcoin's fundamentals have changes since 2013 due to the growth of the dark markets and the increase in its use for criminal activities. The demand has grown. Let us all agree with that simple assumption.

I don't know if criminals are the reason, but that the demand has grown cannot be negated. At blockchain.info there are some interesting charts: block size, transaction volume (in transactions) and total paid transaction fees have grown strongly in 2016. All three are indicators of demand growth, but most notably the last one, because it means that the transaction volume growth was not due to spam increase (like in previous peaks) but because of real transactions because people are agreeing to pay slightly higher fees now.

Compare the amount of commerce and trades that has happened between the dark and criminal underground markets and the legitimate markets since the beginning and we can assume that a majority of that activity is in the dark markets. The reason is because Bitcoin has no need to be present in markets served by the banks and it is the only thing and everything that will support illegal, underground, dark markets.

zero1ten

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Whatever is the reason on this current bitcoin price rally, we can all agree that this will benefit all the people who has interest on bitcoin and also this kind of price surges is what drives other people into joining bitcoin so in the end this will always be a win-win situation for the entirety of bitcoin.

d5000

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 22, 2016, 10:19:05 PM

The halving was already priced in because it was an expected event months before it was going to happen.

In part, you are right. The speculation on the halving is, in my opinion, the reason why the BTC price went up the whole first half of 2016.

The halving itself is not too important for the price: As I've pointed out several times in this forum, the only thing it did is that it lowered the growth of the money supply, but this growth is still is about 5% per year.

Quote

Bitcoin's fundamentals have changes since 2013 due to the growth of the dark markets and the increase in its use for criminal activities. The demand has grown. Let us all agree with that simple assumption.

I don't know if criminals are the reason, but that the demand has grown cannot be negated. At blockchain.info there are some interesting charts: block size, transaction volume (in transactions) and total paid transaction fees have grown strongly in 2016. All three are indicators of demand growth, but most notably the last one, because it means that the transaction volume growth was not due to spam increase (like in previous peaks) but because of real transactions because people are agreeing to pay slightly higher fees now.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Junko on December 22, 2016, 05:11:04 AM

So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

I do not know why you are making things up. The halving was already priced in because it was an expected event months before it was going to happen. Bitcoin's fundamentals have changes since 2013 due to the growth of the dark markets and the increase in its use for criminal activities. The demand has grown. Let us all agree with that simple assumption.

elite3000

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probably

in the last halving took some months until the rise appeared on prices

considering that before the halving price was something between 500-600, I expect a top of $1000 - $1200 for this rise

chaser15

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Quote from: Junko on December 22, 2016, 05:11:04 AM

So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

Halving has nothing to do with the recent price pump. Even there is halving if people will not make a pumping scenario in big exchanges then definitely no price pump that will happen. It's a matter of starting a fire and community join the ride resulting for a big fire and that is what we are seeing now today.

Still we didn't know what factors can be pointed out when there is a price increase and this was happened many times unlike when there is price decrease that some news can be pointed out directly and can be an obvious reason why it was happen.

AlexM

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Surely the gains are too rapid to be sustainable but we are still undervalued. Last I checked we should be at $2000 and we are less than half of that. I suspect we wont make that price for 15-18 months but aside from the miners power play re Segwit and a lot of bogus accounts in the forums posting negatives about Segwit and Core we could be there now. The market is more than ready for a $2000 BTC price, but im not sure the Bitcoin community is.

amacar2

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I won't consider this price surge as complete delayed halving effect but it may have played a small roll in this price pump. But mostly it seems the resistance at $800 was broken so that price is flying without limit and we may see some correction when price will hit $900 but not to worry about this dump because there is also nice support at $850 level.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: Kalamsid on December 22, 2016, 11:20:30 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 22, 2016, 06:38:46 AM

The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

I do not think so. It is due to the fact that the SegWit will not be activated because many miners do not support it.

it is too soon to say if miners are going to activate SegWit or not, and certainly you can't say for sure they won't at this point.

also what you said here is actually a bad news not good, which means it should lead to price going down but price has been rising so it means you are wrong.

KennyR

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Right now the price variation happening to higher extent compared to the past days in which price looked to be stabilizing. But now it varies widely, which might be due to the impact of halving as mentioned by users. During this year's halving we didn't get expected, so now that might get fulfilled.

piramida

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That is one of the factors. As was the last time, halving limited the coin supply, so once the existing supply dried up and some event ignited buying, remaining sellside was gone and it fuelled a spike which brought more buyers -> rally.

energycr

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 22, 2016, 06:38:46 AM

The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

You know it could be right. People just have not realized it yet because it was over 5 months ago and people of other things to think about since then and we all have busy lives to run. So it did not occur to most and me that it could be the reason why this is happening now with such a delayed reaction to everything that has happened until now.
I saw someone advertise their commemorative coin to the halving and that is when I thought about it several months after it has happened. That could be it! Grin

harizen

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Quote from: Junko on December 22, 2016, 05:11:04 AM

So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

Past performance can't guaranteed future and exact results. Road to ATH for the first time in bitcoin is clearly different from what is happening to today. There are lots of hoarders back then compare to today which I will assume that coins are much distributed now to "different" persons and not just only a part of a big whales.

About the halving thing, I see it doesn't have a connection with the latest price rally since it's a normal thing that will happen in bitcoin's life. No news right now that can be a good pinpoint on why the price behave like this. The near thing is obviously big whales pumps the price at Chinese exchange then eventually started a trigger that's why others follow the trend resulting for the current price today.

Kalamsid

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 22, 2016, 06:38:46 AM

The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

I do not think so. It is due to the fact that the SegWit will not be activated because many miners do not support it.

Fortify

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There seems to be a lot of volatility in the world right now, Brexit, European debt crises, the Middle East, Donald Trump, Indian monetary changes and Chinese crackdowns. It seems like the perfect combination to drive money into bitcoin as it has been a strong investment over the last two years. I'd recommend against putting all your eggs in one basket though.

jondeen707

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on December 22, 2016, 05:49:43 AM

Quote from: Junko on December 22, 2016, 05:11:04 AM

So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

the after 2012 halving rise and that ATH you are talking about which was in 2013 has not much with halving but mostly was because of manipulations and pumps of MtGox the biggest exchange in the world by that time.

but yeah the rise is also because of the second halving, i was always saying this back then before halving that price will truly rise in a couple of months after the halving when miners sell all the remainder coins and they start selling the new rewards of 12.5

also there are so many other good news about bitcoin too. specially in US where Trump seems to be so pro bitcoin these days.

You are right. The ATH back in 2013 was definitely man-made, or shall we say, bot-made. But this time around halving definitely was one of the factors that led to that price hike

LFC_Bitcoin

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The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

maku

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Quote from: Watari on December 22, 2016, 05:47:25 AM

Quote from: maku on December 22, 2016, 05:45:25 AM

I don't think that the halving has anything to do with current price surge, of course it affected general price but can't be motor for sudden pushes like this.
It is general market attitude and its super bullish trend showing. All we need to know is that this not the end of upward trend, hourly MACD is suggesting more gains.

BUY!

are you buying right now?

Of course. It would be foolish no to buy, just look at the technical indicators of bitcoin price charts, they are crazy right now.
After we broke $800 resistance we gained $50 so fast and this is not end tomorrow we can reach $900.

talkbitcoin

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Quote from: Junko on December 22, 2016, 05:11:04 AM

So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

the after 2012 halving rise and that ATH you are talking about which was in 2013 has not much with halving but mostly was because of manipulations and pumps of MtGox the biggest exchange in the world by that time.

but yeah the rise is also because of the second halving, i was always saying this back then before halving that price will truly rise in a couple of months after the halving when miners sell all the remainder coins and they start selling the new rewards of 12.5

also there are so many other good news about bitcoin too. specially in US where Trump seems to be so pro bitcoin these days.

Watari

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Quote from: maku on December 22, 2016, 05:45:25 AM

I don't think that the halving has anything to do with current price surge, of course it affected general price but can't be motor for sudden pushes like this.
It is general market attitude and its super bullish trend showing. All we need to know is that this not the end of upward trend, hourly MACD is suggesting more gains.

BUY!

are you buying right now?

maku

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I don't think that the halving has anything to do with current price surge, of course it affected general price but can't be motor for sudden pushes like this.
It is general market attitude and its super bullish trend showing. All we need to know is that this not the end of upward trend, hourly MACD is suggesting more gains.

BUY!

azguard

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Either that or i just reading chat on one exchange there are some indications that cryptsy found are on market more then 11k bitcoins. Can this be this pump in price or we are truly experiencing this halving as we should this time. I mean halving pattern is the same but with some delays ok but what about this rumor on this huge amount of coins on market i mean i had there account but i must say that i withdraw most of fund in time before all hell got lose. So many users there had coins not just bitcoin other and trusted them with this balance.

I just hope we could see price going up and stay there for some time.

Junko

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So after the first halving in 2012, there was a lag of a few months before we started seeing the price rise and ultimately reach its ATH. Many, including myself, predicted we would see something similar with the second halving. After the second halving earlier this year, there also wasn't any immediate significant rise in price. There was also the Bitfinex hack which would have a negative effect and possibly caused an even longer lag period. Could we now be seeing the effect of this year's halving with the price starting to surge after months of sitting in the 600's - 700's? Are there other factors which might be involved?

Topic: Latest Price Surge Due To Delayed Halving Effect? (Read 1586 times)