the positive of a bitlience:
it will kill off teenage basement dwellers from making inferior exchanges.
because it requires full ID checks on the owners, running off with the funds would be near impossible, but atleast harder then present
the negatives:
time delay of innovation
redtape bottlenecking transaction flows
the major thing that should change:
regulators should actually regulate, and not just be admin assistants for registration forms and cashiers for the fee price
The real con is that it that the end game is you end up with a handful of US companies that now face high costs but which are protected by huge barriers to entry. This mean they can increase prices and margins, and without that fear of the next startup stealing their marketshare innovation dies off. The companies which get licensed now have the govt working for them and it is in there best interest to make licensing more and more difficult until nobody else joins the "good ole boy club". Even better they also have local law enforcement forcing consumers to use their product by shutting down alternatives like peer to peer portals. The best part is they don't have to pay a penny for that local "protection" as long as the laws remain punitive and regulation costly.
What NY et al forgets is, NY MT bond requirement is "only" $300,000, but there are 50 states in the country. $300K bond * 50 states = $15M in surety bonds. Usually a surety bond company will not cover the bond unless the company has tangible net work in excess of the bond amount. This means if/when all the states follow NY lead the minimum to "play" is in the $25M to $50M range. Now the surety bond company is going to want 3% to 10% a year, and each state wants $10K or so in licensing fee so you are looking at up to $2M annually in overhead before accepting a single sale. Who pays that $2M? Why you of course in the form of higher fees.
But wait you take your business to that low cost startup .... which no longer exists. Ever notice how after the states decided to regulate entities like PayPal there was no PayPal competitor no matter how bad PayPal got? PayPal's fees just went up and up and up, and the service just got worse and worse and worse yet not better competitor ever came along. Did you think that was a coincidence, or maybe nobody in the country thought "hey we could make a PayPal competitor"? Maybe, just maybe it was that the "pay to play" economics of regulation priced startups right out of the game.
Of course a handful of companies isn't bad right? You still got competition. I mean WU and Money Gram compete real hard to drive down the cost of sending money overseas. When you have a high barrier to entry the market becomes more profitable the less players there are. You don't have to out compete your competitors to make more money, you just have to buy them or merge with them. So if eight US startups grow big enough to afford 50 state compliance before the "pay to play" walls go up, eventually there will be 6 then 5 then 3 as the merge and acquire each other. If Bitcoin does become the next big thing, the banks and credit card companies and PayPals will end up buying or merging with the few remaining players and we all know they will do an awesome job in keeping costs down and the innovation flowing. They might not be interested in an open free market with low barriers to entry and lots of competition, but a stagnant market with high regulatory overhead and little competition, they wrote the book on that.
The good news is this won't affect the rest of the world. There has been talk for decades to streamline the money transmitter licensing, and create a national license. It hasn't happened because ... nobody wants it to happen. Well at least nobody with money and power. The state regulators don't want it to happen (they would be out of a job overnight) and the Western Unions, PayPals, and GreenDots of the world surely don't want that to happen. Lower barriers to entry mean more competition, especially young innovative startups and that means lower margins. It is far cheaper to "donate" to the campaigns of the right people and ensure the high cost, patchwork of laws we current have stay on the books. Kinda like how national banks, securities exchanges, commodity dealers, and forex markets are exempt from state money transmitter requirements.
Full disclosure: we don't do business in NY even prior to the hearings due to the regulatory uncertainty. Then again if we can grow big enough, fast enough, who knows we might be on the other side of those barriers. Still that doesn't mean high regulatory compliance costs are good for the consumer. If history is any guide, the barriers will make a few winners and a lot of losers.