Yeah, I think what we are seeing in Japan or Australia is indirect regulation of bitcoin which is necessary for its growth. These indirect regulations treat bitcoin as a currency or an asset and enforce up on it their currency or asset laws including taxes, but this doesn't give the government any true power over the network. Majority of countries haven't regulated bitcoins, but haven't proclaimed it illegal either.
I don't think direct regulation of a decentralized network is possible. The government could do three things with bitcoin.
Unregulated but legal/not illegal
Regulated and legal
Unregulated and illegal/banned
Yes, I agree with majority, especially with your list and will expand on it for
elaboration below:
(1) No Regulation & Enforced Illegal Use
(2) No Regulation & Non-Enforced Illegal Use
(3) Indirect Regulation & Legalized by Default.
(4) Direct Regulation & Legalized through Controls.
In a way, the four listed above is not only a group of possibilities, but could also
be a timeline of events. For example, When the first Bitcoin client was created and
the experiment was started, Satoshi and all participants were actually in a Stage (1)
scenario, but was not enforced against because it was still "underground" and "new".
Intelligence services monitoring the mailing lists and communications allowed the
experiment to go forward for curiosity and would not yet understand that at that
point in time, it was most vulnerable and "preventable".
As the system grew over time, the Network moved into a Stage (2) scenario
(around late 2010), where it is not actually possible to enforce against the participants
anymore, and this lasted until around 2013-2014 when Governments understood
they needed to protect citizens from consumer fraud and other crimes, due to new
unlicensed money transmitters and other Bitcoin businesses. This was Stage (3) and
we are currently still within this stage. This was the intended Goldilocks Zone, since
it forms a legal limbo under the current legal rules and interpretations in most
jurisdictions.
For a Stage (4) scenario to come about, the Client and the Protocol would need to
have either a government or corporations/banks that are in control of the Bitcoin
Client or it's Protocol directly. This is what the current battle in Bitcoin is really about.
Big blockers have been infiltrated by attackers to the Network, attempting to bring
about a Stage (4), yet they don't care, but willingly welcome these enemy soldiers
under the premise that, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", yet obliviously they
too will be punished in the end like all others who participate in this system. No one
will be spared when a Stage (4) becomes a reality.
All true Bitcoiners, which enjoy this system for more than the simple monetary value,
should resist and attempt to prevent actions that could lead toward a Stage (4) scenario.
If that scenario occurs, Bitcoin no longer provides freedom or the ability to "help the
unbanked" or etc, it will literally becomes a more "authoritarian Paypal". This form of
payment system, under a Stage (4) scenario is worse than the current financial system
and what was attempted to be corrected.
So, Direct Regulation of a Decentralized System (Stage 4) is possible, as long as the
participants give up on the decentralized nature of the system, by centralizing the
miners AND all validator nodes. Bitcoin as a Stage (3) only exists now because the
blockchain can be easily and reasonably maintained and used for validation & compliance
on personal home computers. This was the design and going into Stage (4) is clearly
experiment failure.