Topic: Let's get real, $20k by April, $50k+ 2018, $100k+ 2019 (Read 1142 times)

Yeah for your speculation it's possible that it can happen at the same time it could lets say that really goes 50,000 US dollar as early as 2018 but wouldn't you think government or any regulatory agency of the government would not do something about like how they can minimize or limit the use and control of bitcoin wouldn't you think this factora would affect the increase of price of bitcoin.

What I'm really curious about is -

how will get out of his promise to eat his dick ?

What the h*ll 
I remember when McAfee accepted the bet on his first prediction, and they were serious as it was escrowed, valid bet obviously.
$500,000 in 2020 is crazy, most people will think twice about it, but he doubled to $1 Million, speechless.
People predict bitcoin according to the bitcoin price increases in the past, but those people calculate it based on math formula, etc.

After seeing this, most people still won't believe it's true as there are some unpredictable factors that may affect the price such as government regulations and so on, but how if more countries legalized bitcoin as a tradable asset/commodity? Such as in the US.
Well, Op maybe right, $100K+ in 2020, but McAfee stated $1 Million, as people tend to expect a realistic number, I prefer to $100K and don't want to expect too much.

That's 27,631 satoshi per person

Wow

I hope you're right !

I've updated my prediction table with your bold numbers.

Well, im just quoting a guy that works on LN like Matt Corallo, he said that late 2018 is a decent guess-estimation of when things could be primed for mainstream usage. I think with segwit we can keep the blockchain at pretty low fees until then. Note that the blockchain only gets expensive in very particular moments:

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#30d

There is a ton of spam from attackers out there, when they run out of money, the blockchain becomes pretty cheap to use, and with segwit just with cents you can be transacting. We can keep it accessible for most uses until LN is available pretty easily.

Also I've heard Raiden is a "poor man's" LN. Don't know the technical details but that's what I've heard. And LN is backed by none other than Nick Szabo, so it is pretty serious, this is not some gimmick solution as some haters like to make it appear to be.

Well I agree the transaction throughput is a major barrier for public blockchains in general. Thats the main problem with all cryptocurrencies, not just bitcoin. That's where second layer solutions like Lightning Network come in. If they can get a second layer solution to work then boom, problem solved! As of right now though yet the tech isn't there and so no cryptocurrency would work well as a payment system if any decent amount of people started using them. In terms of other altcoins passing Bitcoin because they have better tech, I wouldn't count on it. Brand advertising is everything for getting people to buy something, and Bitcoin is THE crypto as far as the world is concerned. All these other coins are sideshows even with better tech and 99.9% of them will end up going nowhere no matter how good their tech is.

And yea absolutely my predictions depend on Bitcoin getting that second layer scaling solution. If cryptos in general can't figure that out then they all will eventually collapse since there will be no future for any of them - at least not the ones that are trying to be ambitious and do things on a global scale. Only little niche ones build for small purposes would survive because they are meant to be niche.

Why is it too big? Why is accepting $10k as a great achievement something anyone should do? We know that this is just the beginning, $10k is high now but we're still in the baby steps of Bitcoin's rise. $10k is great sure but that's no reason to say eh no reason for it to go much higher. And besides thinking we've already gotten a good price so it doesn't need to go higher has no bearing on the market, the market WILL continue to push it higher rapidly.

This year it has had a doubling rate of under 4 months...and that seems to only be getting FASTER!!! Now even $50k in one year and $100k in 2 years means the doubling rate slows down a lot! So I'm not even predicting something crazy, I'm predicting it's gonna slow down, but even slowing down a lot it could still easily hit those numbers!

Continued crazy organic growth and wall street coming into Bitcoin is why the price rise isn't gonna slow down a whole lot and we could definitely see 50k and 100k the next two years.

It can reach 20k by this month already.

80k between february and may.

100k by the end of 2018.

And maybe 350k by the end of 2019.

That makes point. But I don't ever know how to suppose Bitcoin more than investment asset with it's technological limitations. Current level of 7-10 transactions per second isn't even enough for speculation purpose even today. It is still pretty solid for investments because it wasn't hacked for almost ten years, which proves whole idea. But that processing speed significantly limits any of other purposes. And it's key technology is not like some unique property, it is already distributed and improved in lots of side projects. Some of them are still very young, some of them have relatively weak advertisement, but that's only matter of time. It is something like Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0 thing if you like.

And I agree that technology in general deserves much more, but whats exactly makes Bitcoin so special? That's not that simple question. And there's no doubt that without answer we even won't cross $20k anyway.

You are way too optimistic. Consider 10 000$ is a great achievement before desiring to go even higher, not to end like Icarus... 20 000$ by April, I can accept, but 50 000$ by 2018 and moreover 100 000$ by 2019 is indeed way too big. The amount of support to reach such prices is incredibly high, and even the most optimistic scenarii do not permit it.

Well you seem to be thinking it will only ever be used as an investment asset, which isn't even the point of bitcoin. Its a payment platform. Once the market matures and slows down yeah sure people won't get in for another 10x (though it very well might continue slow growth against the USD like the stock market which has already been a mature market for a long long time), people will be using it because it will be the easiest quickest cheapest way to move money anywhere in the world without having to go through banks and governments. That's of huge value. Its the entire underpinning of cryptocurrency (well that and that you can be your own bank).

And right now the market is still a baby, and the price is at $10k, so $20k-40k are wayyyyy too low to call overprice for the technology in general. Even just wall street getting into it alone should push it that high, so what do you think the price is gonna do when hundreds of millions of people or even billions of people start getting in on it? Like I said, 10x those numbers that you put out.

It simply doesn't work in that way with only exception of short term. Any resources are capped implicitly or explicitly. Current growth is based only on speculative interest. You think that BTC will made 10x, so why not, that's your right. But when BTC will make another 10x what will think future investors? Just get it for another 10x? That's purely bubble structure. And then if someone will create another bubble that will show "stable" 100x per year then nobody will be interested in BTC since that. It is already happening with some other small altcoins. From the other side, BTC is already Brand Name and somewhat trustful whereas these small altcoins are not. But when BTC will overrun fiat cash caps - the only question for everybody will be "why?". It at least should provide more functionality, stability, convenience than cash with no drawbacks in that case. Is it at least technically possible? For this point nobody knows. So, for that thing that we are know as "Bitcoin" now, the $20k-$40k is already overprice.

It's supply and demand. There's no "oh it doesn't need to be more". You can't have an opinion on a price that "makes sense". That's not how the market for a capped supply asset works. It's a capped supply with increasing demand - it will continue to increase in price until the market has matured, and a mature market for Bitcoin is probably at least 10x those numbers.

That would be great if LN arrives by end of 2018. Personally I'm not even sure LN will be THE solution. It's what everyone talks about but after hearing about how Ethereum's Raiden Network would work (which is their LN equivalent) I have some serious doubts about LN. Even if it does provide the solution Bitcoin is looking for, I'd be surprised if it hit before 2019. I mean I'm just guessing, but I would think maybe it would hit testing by the end of this year and then maybe a few months later sometime in 2019 it would go live, and then you need all the clients to implement LN transactions, and you need the actual LN nodes to be set up. I don't see it really being in use until close to 2020. I mean hell Segwit activated months ago and it still has barely even been implemented into clients, segwit transactions are at like 10-12% right now.

But yeah if LN is a good solution, whenever it is all set up and in use Bitcoin will finally be the global payments solution that it is trying to be. Though I'm pretty damn sure well before that happens the Core team is gonna have to agree to fork to larger blocks or else we're gonna have really high fees for a couple years and that will hurt Bitcoin.

Let's be more realistic. Looks like near $20k-$40k per BTC is hard limit. There's no sense to make it cost more, because for any monetary reasons that will be enough. Just compare that amount to the cash. And don't forget about altcoins that provide more functionality and have some specifics.

Im hoping that the lightning network comes by late 2018, or at least that's what Matt Corallo aka TheBlueMatt on twitter has guesstimated. If LN can come and they can get it done right, then we can finally "bank the unbanked" and everyone will be able to transact in the global bitcoin economy, fast and cheap. Store of value + fast velocity transactions all on the same currency would easily make it go several trillion dollars up on the marketcap, surpassing gold. Only at $1Trillion, i think the price would be sitting around $80,000, considering the available supply et al.

We have definitely been surprised with the $10k correction becoming true, and im sure we will be surprised again rather soon. The future is brighter than ever for bitcoin now that we don't have the hardfork trolls anymore. Don't fall for the FUD, specially when they come from legacy banking CEO dinosaurs.

Well I'm glad we agree on #3 haha.

Still disagree on the first two things though.
Yes at the end of 2013 the price was crashing as it has in previous bubbles, but if you look at the previous bubbles they all took maybe 6 months or so to come back and start hitting new ATHs. The reason the late 2013 bubble took 3 years is entirely because of Mt.Gox. A large percentage of people in Bitcoin lost all their money in Bitcoin and it scared off new people coming in. Bitcoin basically went dormant for two whole years.
As for number 2, I haven't noticed that, in fact it's the opposite. Price increases as adoption increases, and this leads to a network effect adding greater adoption and therefore more buy pressure. We've already seen two major crashes this year in June/July and September. They both lasted about 6 weeks. If this had been a few years ago when hardly anyone had ever heard of bitcoin instead of 6 weeks those crashes might have taken 6 months to complete. And if you don't think those were bubbles, look at the price movement. Bitcoin really started moving about May 1st at 1400, so Spring bubble went from ~1400 to 3000, then crashed to ~1750, so it returned to just a bit more than before the bubble began. It then recovered and once it broke 3000 a new bubble formed in August from 3000 to 5000 and then it crashed all the way down to just under 3000. So that did in fact go all the way down to the price before the current bubble (so it was a total 100% collapse of that bubble, finding the new base for Bitcoin way back at the very start of that bubble).

In the past month now we've had two sharp crashes that came and went so quickly, one lasted like 8 days and the current one seems like it might also only last a week or so. You might argue that these aren't real crashes, but check them out. One bubble was 5000 to ~7800 and then it crashed all the way back to 5500 which is not much higher than the price before the bubble even started. The second bubble was 7800 to 11400 and crashed down to 8400. Again not much higher than the price was before the bubble started. These crashes recovered so quickly because crash time (as well as time between bubbles) is shortening, not getting longer, as price increases. This is because of the network effect, there are enough people in crypto now, or enough people that know about it, so that anytime it has a sharp crash now there are tons of people will to buy it up immediately to get that good price. It no longer has to sit and lick its wounds for 6 months (and again, late 2013 crash was extended far far longer due solely to Mt. Gox).

Sorry but wrong and illogical thought you have there. What made you assume that all 7.6 billion people around the globe will buy Bitcoin? Some visitors of this forum just post here and still do not own Bitcoin or altcoins yet. Hahaha. What are they waiting for?

This is very optimistic, yes there is a lift and see the correction, but strongly up to 20k I do not think it will come. and demand is already falling a little, because everyone just keeps on their hands, and buy and enter with such a price are already afraid.

did i said that ?
i do not recall saying that thing,i only said 'but if we're looking at our current progress and improvement',
which mean i am saying about today improvement and development are not worth that much.
just look at the fork for example,
if we're looking at it we should see the real goal for that fork is to increase the block which is very beneficial for Bitcoin itself,
but at the same time many people against it.
we may be can see it around that but before doing that we need to see a solid community behind it,
slowly we should moving toward that place but we need more time.
it's not that easy to reach that point and steadily increase in value,system and technology.

All we can do is to hope that bitcoin's price will continue growing in the next days. But before that happens we need to hope that governments will begin embracing bitcoin. it's price will definitely go up because of the demand from people who are already into it and the people who are starting to invest on it. The current price only shows that more and more people are getting more aware of it but regulations from one country to another and worst a ban from them would definitely stop everything.

I think we need compare more about market size then price. Because Bitcoin worthing 50k will be huge. How many institutions and people will have to start buying? How much will cost to mine? Because more people will want to do that.

altcoins don't "get any of the market", and if they do they never keep it for long. you can see it in their volume charts. it is obvious that there has been big altcoins some of which even bigger than bitcoin. during their pumps they attract a lot of attention from all over the market. for example bitcoin cash had a much bigger volume than bitcoin at some point last month. but they never last! they get pumped, make a lot of noise, then get dumped and go back to being nothing.

I dont think this numbers are realistic 2018 there are altcoins that will release their developments which maybe also get some of the market.. especially when there are big companies entering now in the game

1. Mt Gox did not cause bitcoin to collapse. It was going to collapse anyway, just like it did in all the prior bubbles (like you mentioned). Mt Gox was just the catalyst, and it was a large catalyst. Even if Mt Gox were not hacked, something else would have pushed the price down just as hard, or it would have just fallen for no reason.

2. You'll notice that the time between bubbles increases as the price increases. This happens for most assets. I don't see why bitcoin's largest bubble by a massive amount would crash and then result in another bubble in a much shorter time than we saw between the previous two.

3. You are right about the cme group futures actually. I didn't realize they aren't going to be settled, and I agree that this is pretty dumb. Seems really reckless and dangerous.

No.

First of all nothing I said is uncharacteristic of bitcoin. All I said is that it will go up a ton the next 3 years. I never said there will be no crashes along the way. There has been plenty of crashes and corrections this year and obviously there will continue to be crashes because the market gets overly excited during a bull run and a crash must come to correct the price and form a new higher base, and then it continues to climb.

Also you are acting like the crash of Mt. Gox is some normal repeating event that happened more than once and will continue to happen. What you're describing from end of 2013 until beginning of 2017 has happened exactly once and it was caused by the collapse of Mt. Gox. Past bubbles happened just like the nov 2013 bubble but the down period would only be like 6 months before the next meteoric rise. The 3 years it took to come back up was entirely because of Mt. Gox. So what you are saying is just wrong, nothing about bitcoin's history says it will either shoot up to $100k in a few months or else take 4-5 years. That's just your own opinion, which is fine, but don't act like it has any basis in the historical movements of Bitcoin. It's all just opinions.

Also I don't think you are understanding how the CME futures work. They are entirely cash settled. The market won't be touching bitcoin itself, and therefore won't affect the price of bitcoin. They will just be betting on bitcoin's price, like betting on a horse race. Shorting bitcoin in a futures contract doesn't actually short bitcoin, they're just shorting the price, and that would be an extremely dumb thing to do. Investors who do that are going to lose a lot of money. Shorting only works if you're talking about shorting actual bitcoin, and for that to happen all these institutional investors would first have to buy into bitcoin, which none of them have which is why they are creating this futures market so they can make all these bets without actually dealing with the bitcoin market.

McAfee even said more three years from now and his on this prediction now.Though I really don't care about those Wall St. people and if it comes to supply as others are worrying about it. We can use bitcoin in fractions and if the marketcap goes up and reaches $100,000/bitcoin it is a world now that has too many rich people because of crypto/bitcoin.

The price behavior you are describing would be extremely uncharacteristic of bitcoin and of any asset. If bitcoin is going to hit $100k, it's going to either happen in the next few months, or 4-5 years down the road after a massive crash and painfully slow recovery, like it did from 2013 to 2017. If the parabolic rise in bitcoin price doesn't continue up to $100k then it will crash before that. If it does, then it will crash after that. In either scenario, it crashes.

To be honest the most likely thing to happen is that CME group futures will start trading in mid December, and some random institutional fund will, on a whim, decide to throw $100 or $200 million dollars into a short position just for kicks and giggles, as a small speculative investment. This will cause the price to get absolutely annihilated, and the bubble will fall apart. An 80-90% decline seems realistic. Maybe we'll hit $15,000 before that happens. Either way, I'm cashing out of what little I have left in the next two weeks.

You're assuming that the Bitcoin devs won't upgrade Bitcoin ever again....which is wrong as they are constantly working on bitcoin upgrades. Transaction fees will go way down in time as scalability upgrades get added on.

So do I think people will use the platform as a payment system?
Absolutely.

This isn't a bubble, it's called the maturing of a new market / transformative technology. And $10k price is just like a child's first step, we're still very early on.

Think about if you could have bought shares of the technology of automobiles, or of television, or of planes, or of computers, or of the internet, or of mobile devices. You couldn't because those technologies didn't have shares associated directly with the technology. Bitcoin is like those except you can buy shares of it. The last thing Bitcoin is is a bubble.

I see you going a bit too quick in saying that now, we finally arrived to the mainstream adoptance. As you said yourself, it is just the beginning, so I would rather except the real interesting things by 2020, for the halving, as I always said it. Before that time, we will grow of course, but I think we will stay under 50 000$.

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/935900326007328768

McAfee doubled the bet!

He now says $1 Million before 2020 and he's still gonna eat his dick if not! 

It is very possible that you are right but also completely wrong in your speculation,BTC can go in both direction.We all hope that growth will continue every year without stopping,we do not consider what can happen in the month, year or two.

I have recently calculated based on 10 000$ price at the end of this year that only 50% increase in price every year bring us to 576 000$ in year 2027.If you ask me something like this is very easily possible,and can it be realized in that time period or we will need more/less time only time will tell.

100k$ before 2020 is also achievable,we are 3000$+ up in last ten days

let say we have a billion people in this world that using Bitcoin.
while Bitcoin itself only producing around 21.000.000 max
(to be exact many people lost it around million or even more,which mean total supply will be less than that).
but if we're looking at our current progress and improvement do not you think it's questionable to see it for more than $50.000 ?
do your math,how much that we need to spend for every one transaction ?
for average fees and based on our current price we need to spend $10 for every transaction,
do you think people will use it in their platform for payment system ?
our current progress showed us how much it's worth,and if we're reaching that point while we do not have anything,
it will be a bubble and it's just matter of time when the bubble will burst

between 2 a 4 million BTC are lost 

And all the missing/lost wallets. The numbers get smaller and smaller!

And only 4 - 5 million BTC in the market as well.

There is 7.6Billion people on this planet. 21Million Bitcoins.

That is 0.00276315BTC Per Person. With that in mind. How much do you think BTC should/could be worth?

Just a thought!

I'm not even kidding guys. It has become clear that Bitcoin is entering the mass market now, though still just at the very start of it. While the 11x in the past 11 months has been astounding, this is just the beginning.

We will see 6 figures before 2020. Bitcoin user adoption is gonna grow from a couple dozen million now to hundreds of millions the next two years. Institutional investment in Bitcoin is gonna grow from basically non-existent now to a major new asset class for wall street in the next two years. $100k in two years might actually be a low prediction.