Topic: Log graph of bitcoins growth in price from 2010-18 - ? catch a falling knife? (Read 221 times)

I think the time for the quick profit from Bitcoin is over.
What happened in the past does not necessarily happen in the future and that the price rose from 0.05$ to 20,000$ dollars in the 8 years does not mean that this will be repeated.
I think the regulation laws, the increase of altcoins and greed will put a barrier of 100,000$ higher for this currency.
Also, remember that Bitcoin is an information/technology revolution and the world is developing rapidly(Someone makes a better system).

If I were to just look at this chart without knowing that it was a logarithmic chart of bitcoin, then my first thought would be that it has just made sort of a weak J top and needs to reverse and go into a hard correction, like so:

Very true - long-term extrapolation is not prediction as I hope I made clear, reminding me of that lesson from that xkcd meme - https://imgur.com/gallery/rIq2d

But yeah I think looking shorter-term where trends are more relevant - https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t - that BTC is just below that long-term trend line I actually drew out, and it should be noted that as seen in 2015-16 BTC can go lower and stay below that line for 12 months - so I agree with you that any buying at today’s 6.9K should be cautious!

Thank you for your kind words, and yes any extrapolation for 6 years carries no predictive value as no one can tell what positive or negative factors the future holds. But it’s interrsting as a pure exercise in long-term logarithmic regression models which I believe used to be popular with BTC holders.

I was led to actually chart out what I was eyeballing by a Reddit user who responded to this post, so here’s my extrapolation of the long-term bitcoin trend line - https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t - again being careful to say this is not a prediction. And this was the similar exercise by the Reddit guy on his trading view - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/D77ZTaQb-Bitcoin-macro-view-non-linear-regression/

I think my trend line and his mean line are quote similar, with BTC hitting 200K in early 2022 and then the magic 1 million on my log-graph in early 2025 - but who knows?!

And being conservative is admirable I think, but I like that you do think BTC can be a million in a decade or so - and like you I would be very happy if my hodled BTC was worth 100K in 2024! Cheers to a fellow crypto enthusiast!

Yes don’t try to catch the falling knife - you’ll get cut! And BTC may fall to 3K which would threaten the miners and cause panic among most holders I’m sure. But like it’s done 4 times before I’m sure it will rise like the phoenix it is to a new ATH. And there is a lot of institutional money that will come in on the way up, and a lot of potential investors who will FOMO in near the next top of the market before it crashes again and rises. Just good to be standing back and looking at the long-term picture and potential I think!

And I did end up drawing what I saw as the long-term trend line for BTC on a log-graph - https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t . The past is no guarantee of the future, and this extrapolation has little predictive value of course, but I do believe BTC will get well above 25K with a couple more cycles of growth and decline. Just gotta make sure you’re on the right side of the ups and downs!

It’s hard to find hard information on this because hard statistics are difficult to measure - but I certainly don’t believe the evidence shows the number of bitcoin uses in the world is dropping, and anecdotally you just have to look at the millions of passionate and dedicated bitcoin and crypto users on this forum and Twitter and Facebook and Telegram and on the reddit bitcoin and crypto forums to think this isn’t just a fad that’s going to go away.

But looking for hard evidence your comment did inspire me to make a post looking at the best estimate possible for bitcoin ownership and use in the world - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3238611.new#new - and the figure I came up with was indeed 0.5% of the adult world population using and owning bitcoin.

Is that figure growing? Well Statista’s figures for wallet addresses in the world holding BTC were 5.5 Mil at end 2016 and 11 Mil at end 2016 and 21.5 Mil now - https://www.statista.com/statistics/647374/worldwide-blockchain-wallet-users/#0 - and that’s certainly healthy growth!

And will that figure of 0.5% of adults worldwide owning BTC grow. These are figures from a Statista survey last year showing that 40% of Americans were open to the idea of using bitcoin for transaction purposes, and that 40% of Americans aged 24 to 39 plan to invest in bitcoin as an asset for the future - https://imgur.com/gallery/pRBNG

And sure some large retailers and other businesses did stop accepting bitcoin late last year, due to high transaction costs and slowness of the network with the large increase in transactions daily from the December madness. But the mempool is now empty and transactions are fast and cheap again, and there are 200+ top developers working on six projects to get bitcoin ready to cope with the next stage of its growth - and as we’ve seen there’s a population primed and ready to own and use bitcoin and crypto, and I have no doubt that 0.5% active user figure will increase to 10% active users over the next 5 to 10 years with bitcoin close to or worth over 100 K in five years time.

And in relation to businesses accepting bitcoin here’s another Statista survey last year, that showed 3% of Americans businesses plan to accept crypto including BTC as payment within 12 months and that 12% plan to do so within 1-3 years https://www.statista.com/statistics/384921/digital-payment-methods-retail-america/

I hope this guides you to some of the hard information out there about bitcoins growth and potential, but as always DY0R.

Exactly. The bearwhales crashed the market with less than 10%. In the same way its possible to recover the market with less than 10%.

This argument about scarcity being a deterrent to a crash is a myth. We can store 99% of bitcoin away from the exchanges, in private wallets, and still it will be possible to move the price with the 1% remaining.

It would be nice to see bitcoin's price keep on rising like its presented on your log graph, but with things going on its impossible... probably.
Price will continue on falling, to which point... who can tell for sure. Predicting future of Bitcoin is impossible job, but we can speculate right.
I believe that price of Bitcoin will not pass $25k , even if people starts using bitcoin as an currency and not as an asset.
This could be good time for buying, but your approach is better. Waiting and watching, I like that approach. 

Interestingly when I ask for proof of that, nobody has it. Bitcoin usage is dropping. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/bitcoin-acceptance-among-retailers-is-low-and-getting-lower

No you don't, it doesn't work that way.

Thanks for that picture.
$1million in 6 years seems to be way too much imo. I myself am pretty bullish on Bitcoin's long term growth and value. But a 7 figure $ value will probably need at least one or two more decades. And even then this is a highly speculative assumption as this would mean a marketcap of almost 3 times as high as gold now. In comparison to all the other markets and assets out there (derivatives, bond and stock market,forex market, private and commercial property market, foreign offshore tax haven accounts etc.), it is of course possible, as Bitcoin is ridiculously small compared to them.
In 2024 I hope we will have reached $100k. That would be amazing. As there will be 2 more halvenings happen until then, which will cut the supply to 3.125 BTC per Block, this should be possible, if Bitcoin continues to be around until then as the dominant coin and open Blockchain.
Maybe we'll be way higher in price, but I like to be more conservative than too optimistic. Giving predictions 6 years ahead is in general impossible in crypto as we know how fast this space evolves.
 

Extrapolating is a recipe for disaster. If you do believe in the potential of Bitcoin, buying a small amount at these levels would make sense. What you shouldn't do is assume that the price of Bitcoin will definitely go up exponentially and try to buy the dips because of that.

OP, please change the title from "catching a falling knife" to "buying the dip". That sounds better and much "safer" to do. Hahaha.

But my suggestion would be to wait.

Did stock market somehow got twice as much money to raise from 12K Dow in 2012to 24K today?
Short answer: it does not work this way.
You need much less than a full value to move the market. How much? Maybe as little as 10%.

The thing is ... I don't believe in the logarithmic line.

Simply because it takes double the amount if FIAT to rise from 10k to 20k than it does from 5k to 10k.

You have do double the FIAT again to rise from 20k to 40k.

Where should this exponentially rising money come from?

Log graph today of bitcoins price from 2010 to March 2018 - https://imgur.com/gallery/nD4rH

That $6.9K price today at the bottom looks tempting if you believe bitcoin is going to follow the long term growth line on this chart, which to my eye would put it at a cool $1 million per bitcoin in ~ 6 years say 2024 - unless the whole thing crashes and burns of course.

But I honestly can’t see that happening, with increasing use and ownership of bitcoin worldwide and with a team of 200 top developers working on stellar improvements for it so that it’s ready for worldwide adult adoption rates of 5-10% up from the 0.5-1% of us who own it now!

What do others think bitcoins long term growth rate will be or not be, and what are your price predictions for 2024 looking at this long-term log chart? Interested to hear, and anyone buying at $6.9K? They say ‘don’t try to catch a falling knife so I’m waiting and watching!