These two posts contradict each other. First of all, this level of confidence scares me away from investing. You pretty much straight out say that you're guaranteed to make profit. Let me just be clear: there IS a risk when trading, however big or small. You're not 100% guaranteed a profit. If you're so overly confident like this, then you would go all-in on everything you have, there's no reason to have a long-term holding.
Why would you have a cold storage, when losing trades just doesn't happen?
Yeah i shouldnt present over confidence it seems cocky and pretty disrespectful to the potential investors who would be considering investing their money carefully.
To address your other points:
I need to check my exact numbers but i say im pretty much guaranteed to make ROI (on the trading platform) because of having a 95% (?) success rate and having a reasonable size volume (100 executions over 5-6 months). With a 95% edge on 100 rolls of a dice the odds of losing long term must be insignificant. I do need to confirm but its very high must be over 90% edge. There are risks but i really feel they are associated with exchanges going rouge, and other risks = a hacking to my own personal computer and into my trading account.
Large periods of 0% ROI could be possible if market isnt moving. I think i can return 50-100% in 1 year. 1 issue could be a large unforeseen BTC bubble (like china), if thats the case the investor would be better off buying and holding. I could have a instant cashout option if the investor wants to go all in on BTC. (example ebay has announced they are accepting BTC). This isnt an issue as in the investor loses money, its just there is more to gain by buy and hold in this scenario.
As regards why dont i trade my cold storage? its basically the risk of the exchange taking my money (the money stays in exchange 24/7 - note i use the premier exchanges only), when i say im not touching my cold storage stash what i really mean is im only happy to touch say 20%. Losing 30 btc in MtGox has made me very cautious, investors should also be cautious about putting money into exchanges.
Another thing to consider on cold storage is im very bullish on BTC long term, if some random china style bubble comes along i dont want to be in USD. I need to trade between USD, BTC and some alts to.
20% of my cold storage does not maximize the returns i/we could gain, i feel i could potentially work with around 100-200BTC which is larger then 20% of my cold storage.
Im not an expert trader as previously stated, i cannot predict the time of next bubble or how high we might go. If you think we are about to go to the moon any minute now on BTC its best to buy and hold, maybe diversifying only a small amount incase you are wrong?.