Just read an article where an official says they expect the crypto ban to be passed, despite other officials recently downplaying the likelihood of it.
India is becoming quite an oppressive government from a monetary standpoint. Giant leap backwards for them if they pass the bill. Won't hurt Bitcoin too much - apparently there's only about $1.2 billion of bitcoin held in India (about a dollars worth for every citizen). If they do ban cryptos it just means that one day when they ultimately reverse that ban we're gonna get a huge pump from a billion-plus people suddenly having access to Bitcoin, by which time Bitcoin will likely be far more engrained throughout the rest of the world.
It's crazy to think about a government actually making it illegal, acting like you are some terrible criminal, simply for holding a digital asset. I guess other smaller nations have done this, but India would be the first major nation if it indeed passes. The idea of banning bitcoin is a great litmus test on how much economic freedom a nation has - and if you ban it you are a terribly monetarily oppressive nation.
Thoughts on the possible India crypto ban?
And why does the RBI/government think that banning crypto is going to work at all?
This has been tried and tested over a range of countries to no avail. I think that we can safely conclude at this point that it is simply impossible for a ban of a completely decentralised network to be enforceable.
Having the legislation on paper is one thing, and restricting actual access is another.
As you said, I wouldn't expect this to be much of a factor when it comes to BTC's price action both in the short and long run. People are used to this stuff happening, and BTC is designed to be a hedge against fiat anyhow.
