So I came across this site which claims a method for picking sets of numbers with a higher chance of winning. I've been reading through the different pages, and I think it's almost certainly bullshit to be honest, but I don't quite understand what their method is exactly...
It seems to be based on looking at different groups of numbers that are more likely to appear than other groups, so not predicting the exact numbers per se, just sets of numbers than seem to occur more often.
It reminds me of an old converstation I had with a relative who has a Masters in Statistics - I said that I thought that if 5 numbers were drawn that were all the same colour/group of 10 numbers (eg 1,2,3,4,5), then there would be less chance of another number from that group of 10 being drawn last (such as 6/7/8/9/10) as there are only 5 numbers left to draw in this group, with 10 numbers in all the other groups.
But he explained that each individual number drawn is totally independent, and has no relation to any of the previous numbers picked. So therefore, the fact that all the first numbers were the same colour/group of 10, has no effect on which group the last number will be from.
So therefore, even if 1,2,3,4,5 all come out, and your last pick was, say, 6, 6 has no more chance of being drawn last than any of the other numbers (6-49 or whatever) - all numbers have the same chance no matter what the previous numbers drawn were. Seems legit.
So yeah, I call bullshit, but if someone here can explain why I'm wrong, please do!
