I hope you are fine, even if current crypto market cap is not giving great positive emotions by the end of 2017.
I'm here to share with you my personal experience, as a crypto enthusiast at the beginning, ending now to start trading by myself after studying TA (Technical Analysis) and developing Ethereum smart contracts (yes, I'm a dev too, like many of you!).
First of all I want to remark one simple thing: I hope you are still here even if your portfolio says you are 70% in loss. That s*cks of course, but crypto market is quite young and big movements were, are and will be always like these, so be sure that doing right decisions at right time & place you can see a massive +500%, like I was before the massive BTC crash from 20k$ to 6$... be bold! hodl! don't quit, you will regret.
What's my biggest error?
Blindly follow crypto traders! Besides they were great (yes, after many telegram channel scammers I found some good great ones), they had they methodology, their mentality, their money management, their philosophy, which was not mine in the end! so I felt it, you may understand ver well! So starts studying! youtube and whole internet is full of great written and video tutorials.
Try to understand why you should
- buy low & sell high always (90% of times)
- set stop loss
- trade only if that crypto has enougth volume
- learn what are supports & resistances levels on a chart
- learn what are trend lines
- learn why demand&supply mechanism is important
- learn what is RSI, what's its meaning and why/when you should care
- learn what is MACD, what's its meaning and why/when you should care
- learn that indicators (bollinger bands, ichimoku clouds, etc.) are important but trends are more important
- understand trends must be identified & followed
- never goes against a trend or you will get burnt
- understand it's better to lose a train than get it straight on your head!
- don't get in FOMO
- crypto markets are full of opportunities, don't get mad if you lose some
- always have a plan B! and a C one!
But the most important thing I learned is this: keep away emotions from you! They are your strongest enemies!
Let's do an example.
Why did you trusted bitcoin technology first time?
maybe because one of your friend told you to buy it, or maybe just to give a try. Maybe because you listened about it on tv, radio or internet, or maybe because you liked the technology behind it. Well, I joined this revolution because I was greedy, I said it! I had some $$$ dreams. I was only emotion driven, and in 2 months I was at -50% of my capital.
But then you start thinking how to improve and I started reading and studying. Bitcoin (I said bitcoin, but there are a few other valid crypto on the market too) has some intrinsic value, that will never change even if market price fluctuates a lot! And a lot of devs are always at work to develop and improve the whole ecosystem!
Let's think at LN, or at the possibility to have smart contracts on it with RootStock. There are still many improvements there are going to be developed, so we can be sure that there will be again a bullrun in near future.
You may say "we are in a manipulated market, bro!" and you are right! but which market is not manipulated?
If the project you invested in have devs, have a community, have objectives, time will pay! how many years we work in order to get a decent retirement? many years! so, why we can't wait 1 year on this amazing technology?
People are blindly shorting Ethereum, maybe some frustrated fearful ICO founders started selling every $ETH they collected to avoid bankrupt, but you can't only have a short term plan, you must have a look at long term!
Personally, now I'm waiting for next BTC big movement. Will it break current famous 6k$ resistance level? What do we expect if it will be broken? and what if not? will we have a breakout?
Let's see what chart (so TA) says
https://www.tradingview.com/x/z8CX6HBw
In this chart I analyzed the current market cap state.
We are bouncing on a big support level: 200B$ market cap.
Ichimoku clouds say we are still in a big bearish.
In the meanwhile the bearish channel (black lines) has been broken but we are getting in again.
Fibonacci retracement says we are not currently able to break the 0.786 resistance (230B$).
What will happen in near future?
check MACD chart on the below side. Blue line is just over the red line! if it will go up the red one, this is a bullish signal! maybe market is changing...
But on the other side many crypto traders say "the more a level is tested, the more is the possibility that it will be broken".
Le't check BTC chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cSrC2r7A/
Lately BTC is ranging between 6700$ & 6000$ levels. As you can see, each bull bounce is weaker than previous one. Do bears have total control of the situation? the first longer (green) trend line was broken, but a new one has been created (check the second upper littler green trend line).
MACD lines are one over each other. RSI is going to get flat.
So what to do? Personally, I turned everything in $FIAT! Too much indecisions! Why should I continue risk my capital? no reason!
Let's wait next big movement.
If BTC will to to 3000-4500$, I'm ready to buy and increase my BTC total value!
If it will start mooning, ready to get in again! In bull run, trading is very very easier.
Trading is fun and crypto projects are awesome!
My objective now? MASS ADOPTION!