Topic: Making my first prediction for 4/30/14 - 5/13/14 based on a dream I had (Read 3665 times)

Thanks matt and hyena for bringing some life on this post.  Matt welcome back and nice insight on gut feelings and Hyena thanks for the link, some interesting posts there.

if anyone else has other gut feelings, feel free to add to the convo

Elaborating on that. One should always choose the path with heart. A path that has a heart is always joyful and pleasant while a path without heart is full of misery. What is more, by the time you realize it, the path without heart is ready to kill you. Everyone would know if a certain path has a heart or not. The problem is, no one asks the question.

Applying the same principles, I know that $548 was the top because it is just a few cents above the point where my entire Short Trade would have been liquidised. The one Short Trade where I decided I was gonna hold out no matter what instead of exiting when it went $20+ against me...........(I ended up farting out at $512).

I now get to enjoy the torment of Bitcoin grinding right back down to my buy-in price and then no doubt into what would be positive territory.

The Conservation of Irony Rule has taught me that I should never short or trade on leverage. I am not suited for it and I am not meant to do it. When someone does something that he really shouldn't be doing, the Universe has ways of teaching him lessons until a severe enough lesson is dealt out that he finally feels compelled to cease his misguided and unsuitable activities.

You might want to leave your prediction at http://cryptograffiti.info/

Anyway, I think 350 was the ultimate bottom and now that people start to realize it, the price starts climbing towards 666 again.

How do I know 380 350 was the ultimate bottom? Here's the proof:

According to the 1. law of life -- conservation of irony -- and the fact that I was forced to sell 500 euros worth of bitcoins last Friday at market price while knowing that it was really bad time to sell, we can deduce that it had to be the worst time to sell. Thus, ~350$ was the ultimate bottom. I was actually lucky enough to sell at 400 instead of 350, so it could have been worse, I shouldn't complain.

My best forecasts and best trades are entirely based on some form of intuition that leads to me fitting the TA around it. My worst trades are almost entirely based on being influenced by news articles, shite I read here, and intellectual application of TA 101 principles. My very worst trades are almost entirely based around chasing missed opportunities at times when I have had an intuitive insight and not acted on it, and then tried to act on it after the event.

Things I have learned is never to take any details of dreams or intuitions as factual, but rather as symbolic. For example, I dreamt a while back that Bitcoin would rebound strongly of $380, and this was while Bitcoin was still in $700 range way back in Jan/Feb. Because I took this detail in it's absolute form, I stacked all my buy-ins at $391.67. In the event, my all-in 60BTC buy-in missed out on the bottom by less than $9. Bitcoin rebounded off $400, not $380. I am a fkn shite trader.

Also never take negative trades if you are relying on your subconscious insights to influence your trading decisions. The subconscious mind has a processing power millions of times greater than the rational processing capability of the conscious mind, but has great difficulty in interpreting degenerative processes as 'positive events'. Thus, if a person with a strong subconscious ability is in a short trade, his Bitcoin intuitions/dreams are going to spook him out, and may even force him to leave or switch his trade right on the cusp of what would have been a massive windfall. I done exactly this a couple of weeks back and aid a heavy price. Likewise, if such a person is in a short trade that is going to get slaughtered, he will sleep well and only feel positively about Bitcoin. I will state again, that the subconscious process has tremendous difficulty in interpreting directly degenerative events, as 'positive' events.

My last vivid Bitcoin dream was when I was on holiday in Madrid a week or so back. In my dream, Bitcoin was falling through the fucking floor. It fell to double figures and then rebounded strongly, and I missed out. I decided that I had to short Bitcoin (Bitcoin was $465). But I was on holiday, I never had good internet access and I didn't want to fall out with my gf due to obsessing over Bitcoin during our break together, so I waited until I got back. The night I got back, was the night Bitcoin plummeted to $340 and then rebounded strongly up to mid $400s. Aggrieved at having 'missed my chance', I chased the 'lost opportunity' and shorted in low/mid $400s with max leverage. Even if the trade went against me, I rationalised, I know that in the long run it would come could, so all I had to do was enter the market and hold my position no matter what. At first things were going good.....but then not so good, and then the market started going against me. usually I would get cold feet at such a turn of events but this time, I resolved to hold even if it meant my whole position being squeezed out. In the end my nerves blew at $512 and I impulse closed my short with a market order, taking a >%50 haircut on that one trade. Worst trade I have ever made in my entire life. Had I just held out, then the liquidiation price for my position was $546.65. Bitfinex hit $547. Had I held out like I promised I would, I would have taken a 100% loss on that trade, and then had to suffer the agony of Bitcoin going right back down to where I short sold at and then some.

In summation, don't ever trade on leverage in a declining market and don't ever short. You may think you can when sitting observing the market from the calm of your armchair, but when in the trading hot-seat, I suspect a lot more people find out that although they think that they can do it, when it comes down to it they actually can't. Even Tera, who seems a very rational and capable trader from his posts, has admitted that his profits have been minimal from trading the bear market.

My advice is that take a Bitcoin position as Bitcoin approaches the lower extremities of the trend. For me, next lower extremity will be found in $200 range but if you feel differently then that is up to you. Hold your position and if you are sleeping well and/or feeling positively about Bitcoin, then keep your position. If you are having spooked out Bitcoin dreams and or have niggling or indeed overwhelming sense of unease about Bitcoin, then dissolve your position and take profits. Providing you aim your buy-ins at lower range of trend even if you fuck up and Bitcoin goes much lower, u still own 'physical' Bitcoins and you will always get a chance to break even and probably even profit due to the wash-rinse-repeat pump n dump nature of the Bitcoin market. If you choose to trade with leverage however, fuck up, and you risk losing everything and the very thought of losing everything will almost certainly guarantee that your nerve will colllapse and you will accept much heavier losses than you needed to.

At all costs, avoid drinking the copious amounts of Kool-Aid distributed by the Bitcoin Nutters on this forum and also succumbing to the FUD spread by the perpetual FUDmeisters also at large on this forum, albeit in much smaller numbers than the real danger, The Bitcoin Nutter. Learning to ignore all this sort of shite though, is much easier said than done.

On 3/30/14 I had a very bull dream.  In the past when I had similar dreams, it took about a month or a month and a half to "come true."

The dream:  
I was watching the price and it felt like a stock type setting (maybe bitcoinwisdom or something).  I don't know why I kept seeing 15 (not sure if 1500 or 15000).  I felt that it was the new highest.
I think it stayed at that point, maybe dropped a little.  I felt very good.

My interpretation:
I don't think I am psychic or anything, but I do pay attention to my dreams.  I remember when it dropped to 500 (many months ago) I had a dream where I just couldn't stop paying attention to the bitstamp price (about a month prior and a month later it came true).

I didn't make this "prediction" when I had the dream 2 weeks ago because I wasn't really sure of the prices (I thought it was a flash crash etc)

So my first prediction on this forum is that I think that in 2 weeks (4/30/14 - 5/13/14) we will be noticeably out of this "slump"  (I know in my dream said all time high, but lets be conservative so I might get some brownie points)  Maybe 600-800 ish (strong) or higher.

If anyone believes the same, please leave a comment and bump (bring up my post) if I am sort of right  

[today is 4/17/14 in the am time: This is the 2nd edit (I corrected the 5/1/14 - 5/14/14 to 4/30/14 - 5/13/14 and I added this).
I will not edit this post from this point on]