ManBearPig's 2013 BTC/USD MtGox Closing Price Chart with news highlights

Ultraviolet

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Quote from: ManBearPig on May 17, 2013, 03:48:06 AM

I've also noticed how all the other altcoins have had a shitty ride recently, mining LTC as I do has become almost useless though it still pays more than the electricity so I'll keep on doing it for now.

At one point I earmarked LTC as the only viable rival (I saw it more as a partner) to Bitcoin but ultimately BTC is the daddy.

Honestly I would long the shit out of LTC right now. Once the ASIC rampage makes mining BTC with GPU farms nigh worthless in the next 1-2 months, 20-40% will sell their rigs and the rest will move to mining LTC. Scarcity will increase with the surge in difficulty and there will be a whole new pool of people assigning value to them.

I think there's a very, very realistic chance to see $10 LTC in the next 3 months.

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Quote from: 600watt on May 17, 2013, 04:56:24 AM

it looks great. almost every day i bump into people that want to learn more about bitcoin. friends, customers, relatives... i tell them that bitcoin has three different fields they need to keep seperate:

1) mining
2) money transfer usability
3) speculation

they almost all have only heard about speculation. bubble, crash, etc... i tell them, that regardless of it´s usefullness and potential as a disruptive technology there also must be a way of getting the coins distributed to the people. mining them, earning them or purchasing them. and since they can be purchased and should be convertible, there is a market of supply and demand. if you have that, then you have speculation automatically. it´s a biproduct of it´s design, but it was not made only for speculation. but that is what people hear and think.

when i then start showing them clarkmoody candle wonderland (which is nice) they get confused.

with your chart it looks more clear. so i will use it. good work.

Yes was chatting about this today, people ask: well what IS this Bitcoin then? Is it a stock? Is it a currency? Is it a pyramid scheme?

It's difficult to tell them succinctly what it is and why it should matter to them in one of the three without crossing over to another.

Thanks for your feedback on the charts though, things move swiftly and we need a daily snapshot of where it's at.

600watt

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Quote from: ManBearPig on May 16, 2013, 02:16:31 PM

I suspect the main trend I've been looking at is now only of historical interest and we've departed from any meaningful reference to it.

Personally I will use it as a measure of how bubble-like the market becomes if we ever see something similar develop again.

Ie. 1.86% growth day-on-day HELD for around 9 weeks. Who knows, it may be months, years before we see it again but as long as Bitcoin is alive, be ready for it I reckon.

it looks great. almost every day i bump into people that want to learn more about bitcoin. friends, customers, relatives... i tell them that bitcoin has three different fields they need to keep seperate:

1) mining
2) money transfer usability
3) speculation

they almost all have only heard about speculation. bubble, crash, etc... i tell them, that regardless of it´s usefullness and potential as a disruptive technology there also must be a way of getting the coins distributed to the people. mining them, earning them or purchasing them. and since they can be purchased and should be convertible, there is a market of supply and demand. if you have that, then you have speculation automatically. it´s a biproduct of it´s design, but it was not made only for speculation. but that is what people hear and think.

when i then start showing them clarkmoody candle wonderland (which is nice) they get confused.

with your chart it looks more clear. so i will use it. good work.

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

The angle of the line, sure it's written in BTC's history now, we can refer back to it.

I copied and shifted it, moved it down to match the last two lows and hey-presto, it seems to become more useful.

After we've paused for breath so-to-speak it will be interesting to see which (if any) line serves as a guide.

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on May 17, 2013, 12:10:18 AM

Hm? It seems like we are still exactly on that Jan-March trendline. It went above it for a while so it has to go below it for a while to wash out all the bubble-related sentiment anomalies. Anything else would be strange. If we were back on the trendline right now I'd say that is not following the trend but instead above it (on average). To follow the trend long term, we have to be a bit below it short term, since we spent some time way above it. Sentiment rebalancing. Can you feel it?

I suspect we'll be climbing upward to meet that trendline again in the next few weeks. (I correctly predicted a several-week sideways slide about two weeks ago. Now that it's consolidated, it'll soon be ready to move up again.)

I'm siding with Mr. Humperdink on this one. I don't see any divergence at all really. Just because we are on one side of the curve doesnt mean its invalidated.

ManBearPig

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Quote from: fitty on May 16, 2013, 02:29:11 PM

Do what all the TA guys do, change it to Jan 1st to March 15th. Drop that trend growth percentage down a little, and you're a genius again. Grin

Would I try a low-down dirty trick like that?!

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

I think we're genuinely in uncharted territory now (no pun intended) where the past is interesting and all but overlaying previous post-crash charts over this one is just useless.

One thing's for sure, this is NOT a 2011 post crash months long slide.

I'll say again, I'm really impressed we held above $100 after many were tempted to sell the news a few days ago.

If we don't break below $100 by the end of May it is clear that we value BTC in 3 figures with PLENTY of upside.

I've also noticed how all the other altcoins have had a shitty ride recently, mining LTC as I do has become almost useless though it still pays more than the electricity so I'll keep on doing it for now.

At one point I earmarked LTC as the only viable rival (I saw it more as a partner) to Bitcoin but ultimately BTC is the daddy.

Le Happy Merchant

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on May 17, 2013, 12:10:18 AM

(I correctly predicted a several-week sideways slide about two weeks ago. Now that it's consolidated, it'll soon be ready to move up again.)

+1

With a name like Bingledack, it has to be good!

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Hm? It seems like we are still exactly on that Jan-March trendline. It went above it for a while so it has to go below it for a while to wash out all the bubble-related sentiment anomalies. Anything else would be strange. If we were back on the trendline right now I'd say that is not following the trend but instead above it (on average). To follow the trend long term, we have to be a bit below it short term, since we spent some time way above it. Sentiment rebalancing. Can you feel it?

I suspect we'll be climbing upward to meet that trendline again in the next few weeks. (I correctly predicted a several-week sideways slide about two weeks ago. Now that it's consolidated, it'll soon be ready to move up again.)

fitty

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CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Do what all the TA guys do, change it to Jan 1st to March 15th. Drop that trend growth percentage down a little, and you're a genius again. Grin

MAbtc

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Quote from: ManBearPig on May 16, 2013, 02:16:31 PM

I suspect the main trend I've been looking at is now only of historical interest and we've departed from any meaningful reference to it.

Yeah, pretty much.

ManBearPig

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Activity: 350

Merit: 250

"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

I suspect the main trend I've been looking at is now only of historical interest and we've departed from any meaningful reference to it.

Personally I will use it as a measure of how bubble-like the market becomes if we ever see something similar develop again.

Ie. 1.86% growth day-on-day HELD for around 9 weeks. Who knows, it may be months, years before we see it again but as long as Bitcoin is alive, be ready for it I reckon.

Topic: ManBearPig's 2013 BTC/USD MtGox Closing Price Chart with news highlights (Read 1369 times)