Units of the Free Syrian Army, supported by Turkey, seized the central part of the Syrian city of Afrina, which was under the control of the Kurds.
President Erdogan has achieved two goals: to withdraw the key area from the control of the Kurdish self-defense groups and to rally the majority of its own population supporting the actions of the Turkish commander-in-chief.
http://www.bbc.com/english/news-43447889 The local population of this part of Syria is mainly Turkic, therefore the Turkish military has the support of the local population.
Alik Bakhshi
Many colors of the Syrian revolution
The Arab revolution, which reached Syria, was a detonator of a mine laid by France and Great Britain after the First World War. Then, like a flock of wolves of the country, the victors broke the defeated body of the Ottoman Empire, dividing the territories among themselves, disregarding the ethnic and religious composition of the population. As a result, the Middle East was divided into many Arab states, of which two, namely, Syria and Iraq were in the most difficult position. The fact is that in the borders of these countries, artificially created by the colonial powers, three large completely different ethnic groups of the country came to their satisfaction: Arabs, Kurds and Turks or Turkmens, which is the same thing. Naturally, and taking into account the historical traditions and mentality of the peoples of the East, these states could function only under dictatorship. Only dictatorial regimes could exercise power and keep such a motley population in obedience. In general, so it was, until America in 2003, under the foolishness of Bush Jr. under a far-fetched pretext, overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, after which Iraq plunged into the bloodbath of an endless civil war (1). Attempts to establish democracy in Iraq have completely failed, because it is not possible to bring democratic values to the bayonets of marines to the people, who for objective reasons are not ready to accept them.
Somewhat different picture is observed in Syria, where part of the most advanced population itself without external interference rebelled against dictator Bashar Assad, having formed an armed opposition - Syrian free army. Against the backdrop of the beginning of the civil war, which significantly weakened the central government, new interested players from various ethnic and religious groups of the Syrian population emerged who also started to defend their interests with the help of weapons. Immediately on a heterogeneous political field in Syria, a powerful religious movement embraced the Middle East, which aimed at creating a kind of new Khilafat in a vast territory, including Syria and Iraq, like the Islamic state in Iran, the IGIL. Wild cruel executions of prisoners, demonstrated by the Igilovites to intimidate their opponents, alerted the world community. IGIL was outlawed, the need to combat this extremist movement became apparent. Assad lacked the strength to withstand the chaos that engulfed his country, in the army, cases of desertion of officers increased, and if one takes into account the fact that the democratic Western countries are unequivocally opposed to his bloody regime, his fall was predetermined.
However, Russia's military intervention on the side of Assad saved the regime from an imminent defeat. It should be noted that Moscow has always supported the totalitarian regimes, as close to her in spirit. That's Putin's regime hurried to come to the aid of the Syrian dictator, temporarily pushing back the end of his rule. With all this, it is difficult to imagine that Russia's intervention in Syrian affairs is due solely to Putin's intention to save Bashar Assad from popular anger, to prevent a recurrence of the massacre of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. In Syria, Putin pursues several goals. One of them is the creation on a permanent basis of a Russian naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, not so much to confront the Sixth US Navy as to demonstrate a military presence and restore the military power of Russia. In addition, the military base in another state is a lever for carrying out its policy, which is well demonstrated in the case of the Baltic states, which allowed the Russians to establish military bases, after which they were all immediately annexed in the same way. And a very recent example with Ukraine, leased to Russia a naval base in Sevastopol, for which paid the annexation of the Crimea. I must say that Moscow was still courting dictators in Damascus and Baghdad, but Saddam Hussein managed to be hanged, but Bashar Assad finally got into the Kremlin networks. Undoubtedly, sending Russian soldiers to Syria, Putin satisfied the imperial mentality of the Russian people, which suffered somewhat after the partial collapse of the empire. It is also possible that Putin's military adventure in Syria, according to his plan, should dilute the attention of the world community to the annexation of the Crimea and the rejection of the eastern part of Ukraine. And yet, in my opinion, the main reason for intervention lies in the economic plane. The fact is that after breaking the established postwar world order (2), and secretly having asked to recreate the Russian Empire within the borders of the former USSR, revanchist Putin, like Hitler once, overestimated his strength.
Russia, as a world gas station, seeks to maintain a monopoly on the supply of hydrocarbons to the EU as the only revenue side of the state budget, and in this regard, the destabilization of the situation in the Middle East seems to be favorable for Putin. The matter is that through such countries as Turkey, Syria and Iraq in the future it is planned to conduct gas pipelines to Europe, one of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran through Turkey and the second from Qatar through Syria to Turkey. The implementation of these projects, of course, and this is well understood by Putin, will put an end to Russia's monopoly on the gas market in Europe. Making Assad his puppet, Putin has a chance to turn the gas pipe laying through Syria. Also Putin can play the Kurdish card, because in any case the gas pipelines from Qatar will run through places with the Kurdish population. As for the other branch of the gas pipeline from the Caspian region, Putin has an Armenian card with a smoldering Karabakh conflict in his hands, and there is no doubt that Putin will not use any opportunity to prevent the implementation of these projects, capable of bringing down the one-sided economy of Russia, and lead to an economic situation in which the Soviet Union collapsed. Thus, the presence of Russians in Syria pursues purely Russian interests, the victim of which is the Syrian people. Saving the dictator, Russian planes practically with impunity iron first of all the territory under the control of the opposition Syrian free army, and then IGIL.
After the joint efforts of the military coalition led by the United States managed to defeat the militants IGIL, the world, as expected, did not come. The fact is that to achieve their goals, the interests were based on local forces, supplying them with weapons. So, the Americans used not only government forces of Iraq, but also Kurds, who used the civil war and weakened central authority to set up the Kurdish state. The latter triggered a protest from Turkey and complicated the US-Turkish relations, already strained, due to the non-extradition of America by Fethullah Gülen, whom the Turks consider to be the ideological leader of the failed coup in 2016 (3). True, the Americans promised the Turks to stop supplying weapons to the Kurds after their victory over IGIL. Turkey in turn is helping the Syrian opposition and the local Turkic population, tightly, both government forces and Kurdish militants. Russia is fighting on the side of Assad mainly against the opposition. Iran sends soldiers to help Assad and Hezbollah. And the main thing is that the weapons delivered to Syria have not gone anywhere and no one is going to surrender it after the destruction of the IGIL because of mutual distrust of all the parties concerned.
A large number of opposing sides with mutually exclusive plans for the future excludes the possibility of restoring statehood in its former form. Moscow's hope of ending the civil war in Syria with the defeat of IGIL is illusory. The news that government troops with the support of Russia control almost 89% of the territory of Syria was not only premature, but also very far from reality. The mortar shelling of the Russian embassy in Damascus testifies to the contrary. In fact, everything is just beginning. So, Assad's attempt to regain control of the right-bank territory of Efrat with its oil wells failed. The forces of the Syrian opposition, with the assistance of US aviation, routed the government troops approaching the area. It was not known whether the Russian military instructors were there, but the silence of the Kremlin indicates that Putin has obviously pinched his tail and it is unlikely that Assad will make a new attempt to seize this oil-rich region in the future.
This military episode says, firstly, that America has not abandoned its original policy of supporting the democratic opposition, and secondly, highlights the fundamental disagreement in the plans of Washington and Moscow for the future organization of Syria as a state. The presence of the constant danger of a direct military collision of aircraft with serious consequences undoubtedly raises fears of Putin. Moscow holds a low profile, avoiding confrontation. As in the case when the American tomahawks smashed the airfield from which Assad's air force struck a blow against the opposition using chemical weapons, the Kremlin took the last military action of Americans without a note of protest. Here we must single out the circumstance that the Russians did not dare to apply the S-300s placed. The question is, why do we need hailed S-300s in Syria, if not for this case, because the opposition does not have any tomahawks or planes to use such a high-precision air defense system.
Another active player in the Erdogan region, assessing the current situation, no doubt understands the danger posed by the fighters of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which controls almost half of the border area with Turkey. And now, after the problem with YGIL is solved, nothing prevents the Kurds from tackling their main goal - the creation of Kurdistan. Assad will not dare to attack the Kurds, because they do not have the goal of overthrowing his power, unlike the democratic opposition supported by America and Turkey. From the very beginning of the revolution, Erdogan wanted to overthrow Assad. Most likely Assad will reconcile with the loss of part of the territory in favor of the Kurds, who can serve as a shield against a more dangerous neighbor from the North - Turkey.
Before creating a state, the Kurds need to clean up the territory of 2.5 million Turkmens (10% of the total population) living mainly in the north-west of Syria in Idlib provinces and Aleppo, most affected by the civil war. Russian aviation mercilessly bombed and continues to bomb these provinces. By the way, in those parts and were shot down Russian aircraft. Today, the situation is especially bad around Afrina in the province of Aleppo, where the PKK troops essentially exterminate the local Turks, and this is despite the fact that the Russian monitoring mission is in Africa. Erdogan repeatedly raised the issue of the situation in Africa, but seems to have no understanding. In connection with which, on January 20, Erdogan was forced to announce the beginning of the military operation "The Olive Branch." As a result, the Turkish army is in Aleppo and Idlib. I want to note that the famous Russian political scientist Satanovsky considered Turkey's intervention in Syria unlikely (4) and was mistaken.
The emergence of a new player in Syria makes the situation so confusing that you can expect an early peace as long as you like. It is quite clear that Syria as a single state can not function further. The only outcome is seen only in the disintegration of Syria into several independent countries, taking into account ethnic and religious differences. The Arab revolution in Syria turned out to be multi-colored, but in the absence of a pink color.
1. A camel for the president.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/?skip=100#post-alikbahshi-52712. Putin and his new world disorder.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/#post-alikbahshi-358443. To a failed military coup in Turkey.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/#post-alikbahshi-298864.
https://vpk-news.ru/articles/40255 13.02.18
