Rather: 3 a percent chance of all of them dying and then someone else coming in and winning the race. That's what this is for, it's not saying that a third party candidate will come in. It's saying that someone outside of these people, from either party, will win the presidency (with all of these people together having a 3 percent chance of doing so)
Not going to happen, but yeah this is probably pretty common.
Topic: Market Inefficiency or Extreme Uncertainty? (Read 72 times)
The crypto exchange FTX offers the ability to gamble on the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.
The winning odds of all candidates adds up to only 0.973. That means the market values a 2.7% chance that no candidate from a major party wins the election.
The last person who was unaffiliated with a major party yet won the election was George Washington, in 1793.
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