Mass adoption? Seriously what would price be?

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 03, 2015, 04:47:07 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 03, 2015, 04:43:42 PM

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

I'm still neither. A 50,000 Euro valuation is still a tiny amount in terms of global turnover. The world economy would have to be a smoking wasteland to be small enough to be running on BTC at that value.

Totally agree.

BldSwtTrs

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1 BTC can worth more than 1 million $, holding $ constant.

21 millions * 1 million = 21 trillion $

Total wealth on Earth is around 400 trillion $. If 5% of that worth go to Bitcoin instead of real estate, gold, obligation, shares it's 400 *0.05 = 20 trillion $. BOOM

And that's not even taking into account the flow of wealth, only the wealth stock. Wealth creation is about 100 trillion each year.

misterycoins

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Well technically anything can happen, but let us be realistic on here, there's tons of boat missers with big cash trying to get in BIG into the Bitcoin game.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Fakhoury on August 03, 2015, 04:43:42 PM

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

I'm still neither. A 50,000 Euro valuation is still a tiny amount in terms of global turnover. The world economy would have to be a smoking wasteland to be small enough to be running on BTC at that value.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on July 28, 2015, 10:58:14 AM

Quote from: Furio on July 27, 2015, 11:54:45 PM

I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

If you shut down well over 95% of global trade and destroyed even more wealth then that valuation is absolutely spot on.

Why do I feel you are becoming bearish, mand ?

dodgecharger

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Bitcoins fluctuate in value all the time. As more companies start accepting them- this is growing exponentially more people will get into them increasing the market cap. You'll be glad as heck that you were an early investor.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Furio on July 27, 2015, 11:54:45 PM

I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

If you shut down well over 95% of global trade and destroyed even more wealth then that valuation is absolutely spot on.

Furio

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I once read an article stating that if mass adoption was a fact and the world economy would run on bitcoin, €50.000 would be a rough estimate.

Wekkel

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yes

I think the value could be bigger than $40k if BTC becomes a universal point of reference (and not necessarily the transaction currency of choice).

Some thoughts on the concept of a stable numeraire: http://www.gata.org/node/8303

SmoothCurves

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1-10 Million dollars per BTC.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: gentlemand on July 27, 2015, 08:16:00 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on July 27, 2015, 08:11:17 PM

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

That's a regular figure they throw out.

http://mashable.com/2013/12/16/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin/

Thanks bro

gentlemand

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Quote from: Fakhoury on July 27, 2015, 08:11:17 PM

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

That's a regular figure they throw out.

http://mashable.com/2013/12/16/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin/

Fakhoury

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on July 27, 2015, 08:09:27 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:59:23 PM

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 10:47:59 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.
IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

When the Wink Bros say $50k USD, I think they are thinking just a 1 Billion Market Cap.
That is the number as a payment processor, like VISA, Mastercard, etc (combined).

If "Dollar Collapses" or the World uses BTC as its collective global currency system/supply, then I think 5 to 15 Million USD.

I could be very wrong, I'm no economist nor mathematician.
I'm just thinking dooms day scenario for world, but most positive outcome for BTC.

EDIT:
CORRECTIONS: The 1 Billion Market Cap, that I stated above, should really be around 700 Billion Market Cap.
CORRECTIONS: All Credit Card Companies (USA) combined in 2012 was 7+ Trillion Market Cap.
CLARIFICATION: When I calculated my "5 to 15 Million USD" above, I was using 2014 USA Wealth to 2014 World Wealth Stats.
CLARIFICATION: 2014 World Wealth = 264 Trillion USD divided by 21,000,000 BTC = 12.5 Million USD

This is a common pitfall in the bitcoin community. You can't replace total wealth all with bitcoins. There isn't a dollar for every single "dollar of networth" in existence.

For example, even if bitcoins replace all fiat currencies, bitcoin cannot replace your house. Or your table. Or your car. All of those are included in wealth.

So there is no way bitcoins will be worth as much as the total wealth of the world, it's just not possible.

I would say the MOST optimistic scenario, bitcoin could potentially be worth 1 million dollars each, present value. But I would say the chances of that happening are very, very, very, very low. The $40,000 winklevoss estimate is comparatively a lot more realistic.

Could you link me where Winklevoss brothers stated about $40-50K please ?

Thank you.

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:59:23 PM

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 10:47:59 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.
IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

When the Wink Bros say $50k USD, I think they are thinking just a 1 Billion Market Cap.
That is the number as a payment processor, like VISA, Mastercard, etc (combined).

If "Dollar Collapses" or the World uses BTC as its collective global currency system/supply, then I think 5 to 15 Million USD.

I could be very wrong, I'm no economist nor mathematician.
I'm just thinking dooms day scenario for world, but most positive outcome for BTC.

EDIT:
CORRECTIONS: The 1 Billion Market Cap, that I stated above, should really be around 700 Billion Market Cap.
CORRECTIONS: All Credit Card Companies (USA) combined in 2012 was 7+ Trillion Market Cap.
CLARIFICATION: When I calculated my "5 to 15 Million USD" above, I was using 2014 USA Wealth to 2014 World Wealth Stats.
CLARIFICATION: 2014 World Wealth = 264 Trillion USD divided by 21,000,000 BTC = 12.5 Million USD

This is a common pitfall in the bitcoin community. You can't replace total wealth all with bitcoins. There isn't a dollar for every single "dollar of networth" in existence.

For example, even if bitcoins replace all fiat currencies, bitcoin cannot replace your house. Or your table. Or your car. All of those are included in wealth.

So there is no way bitcoins will be worth as much as the total wealth of the world, it's just not possible.

I would say the MOST optimistic scenario, bitcoin could potentially be worth 1 million dollars each, present value. But I would say the chances of that happening are very, very, very, very low. The $40,000 winklevoss estimate is comparatively a lot more realistic.

ssmc2

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Quote from: RodeoX on July 27, 2015, 12:40:06 PM

Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

You make it sound like the banks can do something about it. I assure you that they can't. I ONLY use bitcoin online. For me the war is long over and the banks lost. Banks are free to have their own alt chains, that's fine. But I will never use them and no bank nor government can do a damn thing about it.

WORD

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

You make it sound like the banks can do something about it. I assure you that they can't. I ONLY use bitcoin online. For me the war is long over and the banks lost. Banks are free to have their own alt chains, that's fine. But I will never use them and no bank nor government can do a damn thing about it.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

You're thinking too first world.

There are no shortage of governments right now who do such a dismal job of managing their local currency that their populations do everything possible to abandon their national currency and use more stable ones like the dollar or euro.

The exchange rates have also disconnected and what you get on the street bears no resemblance to what the government wants. I'm sure those in power would dearly love to be able to control the wealth of their population but if you offer them shit then they'll ride right over you.

In places like India much more value is placed on gold in private hands than it is in the west. In most places tax evasion is a national sport. In most places government being a corrupt hindrance is the norm and best avoided. In the West there's just more tinsel and everyone has a vested interest to keep it afloat.

Once people en masse around the world start to comprehend what crypto can actually do for them then some very interesting things will happen.

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

Seriously, no one here has a clue. Not that you wont get a bunch of confident answers.

Denker

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Quote from: 1Referee on July 27, 2015, 06:57:25 AM

Quote from: Amph on July 27, 2015, 02:06:20 AM

the global gdp is 77T so we can say around 1Q this put one satoshi from 0.1 to 1 dollar and one bitcoin from 10M to 100M, if we were to compare it to the global economy and not just usd

but i believe that mass adoption can happen much early, there is the possibility that eveyrone that would ever be interested would use bitcoin without necessarely reaching 7B people which is impossible

at that point the price would be fairly lower probably no more than 100k-1M

Keep dreaming

Nothing wrong with having a fantasy, but this is far beyond that. Bitcoin is and will never be more than an alternative.

Really? Do you have a crystal ball which predicts the future? Congratz!

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Here is a good calculator to let you see what the price will be as Bitcoin starts to take a foothold in various markets.

1Referee

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Quote from: Amph on July 27, 2015, 02:06:20 AM

the global gdp is 77T so we can say around 1Q this put one satoshi from 0.1 to 1 dollar and one bitcoin from 10M to 100M, if we were to compare it to the global economy and not just usd

but i believe that mass adoption can happen much early, there is the possibility that eveyrone that would ever be interested would use bitcoin without necessarely reaching 7B people which is impossible

at that point the price would be fairly lower probably no more than 100k-1M

Keep dreaming

Nothing wrong with having a fantasy, but this is far beyond that. Bitcoin is and will never be more than an alternative.

aakashsangwan

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Well for right now, the price of Bitcoin is unpredictable.
But the case of mass adaption is very far from right now.
So for now we should not think about the price of Bitcoin but hope for its mass adaption.

S4VV4S

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Quote from: Kprawn on July 27, 2015, 01:34:03 AM

This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

I couldn't agree with you more.
However, those who know will choose to use Bitcoin instead of FederalReserveCoin.
It is up to us to educate people and let them make their own decision on what they would like to use as legal tender.

I am pretty sure that even those who are not tech savvy have looked into Bitcoin following what happened with the banks in Greece and Cyprus.
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if politicians and bankers chose Bitcoin/Crypto to get some money out of the country.

Amph

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the global gdp is 77T so we can say around 1Q this put one satoshi from 0.1 to 1 dollar and one bitcoin from 10M to 100M, if we were to compare it to the global economy and not just usd

but i believe that mass adoption can happen much early, there is the possibility that eveyrone that would ever be interested would use bitcoin without necessarely reaching 7B people which is impossible

at that point the price would be fairly lower probably no more than 100k-1M

Kprawn

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This will never happen with Bitcoin.... Governments and banks have been working together for years, and they manipulate the value of money through control. They will never relinquish control over that.

If fiat collapse, the banks would have a Plan B and the governments will enforce it onto it's people. The banks are already working on their own ripp off version of the Blockchain.

They will have a centralized Blockchain solution, controlled and manipulated by the Reserve bank, and they are owned by the banks. The people will become the puppets and they will control the strings.

It's been like that for centuries, why would it change now? Satoshi has given them a new toy.... and they will use it for sure. Ripple...ripple...ripple.. Sad

Hopalong

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If dollar should collapse then nobody would start using bitcoins. The hoarders will not sell their coins for a collapsed currency. Dollar would be replaced by a new fiat.

Only a country without thier own currency would be able to buy bitcoins since they would use a foreign currency to buy.

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Quote from: Lauda on July 26, 2015, 11:23:45 PM

Well we could all try to guess numbers but we either will never see such a scenario or we are going to be wrong. I'd say anywhere upwards of $1M. However, this will not matter at all. If the dollar collapses good luck trying to survive with money.

Quote from: newrad on July 26, 2015, 10:10:11 PM

If your scenario were to happen then the "price" of bitcoin would not matter, because Bitcoin would be the preferred currency to spend money. Until people stop looking at BTC like some kind of stock, and instead look at it as a better means of transaction the adoption of Bitcoin will be hear sooner than later.

The mentality of "how much U.S. Dollars cant I get for bitcoin in a few years" needs to stop.... Now.

I strongly agree with this. I've said this a number of times, a lot of people are here for the wrong reasons (greed, i.e. cashing out in some other currency).

thats will be good if it will happen but i think the transaction fee in blockchain will be so high in that price.

nextgencoin

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Quote from: Lauda on July 26, 2015, 11:23:45 PM

Well we could all try to guess numbers but we either will never see such a scenario or we are going to be wrong. I'd say anywhere upwards of $1M. However, this will not matter at all. If the dollar collapses good luck trying to survive with money.

Quote from: newrad on July 26, 2015, 10:10:11 PM

If your scenario were to happen then the "price" of bitcoin would not matter, because Bitcoin would be the preferred currency to spend money. Until people stop looking at BTC like some kind of stock, and instead look at it as a better means of transaction the adoption of Bitcoin will be hear sooner than later.

The mentality of "how much U.S. Dollars cant I get for bitcoin in a few years" needs to stop.... Now.

I strongly agree with this. I've said this a number of times, a lot of people are here for the wrong reasons (greed, i.e. cashing out in some other currency).

Struggling to take financial Puritan moral lessons from someone heavily involved in Bitcoin Casinos....

Personally I'm very into the Libertarian principles of Bitcoin and the end of financial slavery that Central Banks has over the world. But IF I truly believe in Bitcoins potential which will mean it will rise in value considerably then I would have to be making an active decision to avoid taking that opportunity....why would anyone do that? Would you?

And if I use the Dollar as a way to describe value it doesn't mean I want to at some point move to actual dollars geez, why is that so hard to understand for people....

Plus no one said they want to use money during a financial collapse, the issue is more as all other fiat wealth has collpased you come out the other end with wealth intact and Bitcoin as a potential global currency. Also opportunities to buy real assets dirt cheap. A doomsday scenario doesnt mean anyway the end of a trading economy so Bitcoin during the collapse would also present opportunities.....maybe save your life even...

odolvlobo

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I can't find equivalent information for the global monetary base, so I'll stick to U.S. only.

TL;DR: If BTC completely replaced USD today, then each bitcoin would be worth about $278,000, or potentially much less.

The monetary base is dollars issued by the Federal Reserves and is about $4 trillion. Other money supply values include varying degrees of fractional reserve banking. Assuming that Bitcoin is subject to FRB just like the dollar, then switching BTC for USD would mean that the 14.4 million BTC currently in existence would be worth about $4 trillion, and each bitcoin would be worth about $278,000.

However, the price of something depends on supply and demand. In this case "supply" is not the same as "money supply", primarily because velocity is a factor. Assuming that Bitcoin is a more efficient currency than the dollar, then the velocity would be higher, and the supply (as opposed to money supply) would be higher, and the value would be lower.

Lauda

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Terminated.

Well we could all try to guess numbers but we either will never see such a scenario or we are going to be wrong. I'd say anywhere upwards of $1M (if mass adoption = 99% people using). However, this will not matter at all. If the dollar collapses good luck trying to survive with money.

Quote from: newrad on July 26, 2015, 10:10:11 PM

If your scenario were to happen then the "price" of bitcoin would not matter, because Bitcoin would be the preferred currency to spend money. Until people stop looking at BTC like some kind of stock, and instead look at it as a better means of transaction the adoption of Bitcoin will be hear sooner than later.

The mentality of "how much U.S. Dollars cant I get for bitcoin in a few years" needs to stop.... Now.

I strongly agree with this. I've said this a number of times, a lot of people are here for the wrong reasons (greed, i.e. cashing out in some other currency).

Update:

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 11:38:03 PM

Struggling to take financial moral lessons from someone heavily involved in Bitcoin Casinos....

This is irrelevant and false.

AgentofCoin

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Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 10:47:59 PM

Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.
IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

When the Wink Bros say $50k USD, I think they are thinking just a 1 Billion Market Cap.
That is the number as a payment processor, like VISA, Mastercard, etc (combined).

If "Dollar Collapses" or the World uses BTC as its collective global currency system/supply, then I think 5 to 15 Million USD.

I could be very wrong, I'm no economist nor mathematician.
I'm just thinking dooms day scenario for world, but most positive outcome for BTC.

EDIT:
CORRECTIONS: The 1 Billion Market Cap, that I stated above, should really be around 700 Billion Market Cap.
CORRECTIONS: All Credit Card Companies (USA) combined in 2012 was 7+ Trillion Market Cap.
CLARIFICATION: When I calculated my "5 to 15 Million USD" above, I was using 2014 USA Wealth to 2014 World Wealth Stats.
CLARIFICATION: 2014 World Wealth = 264 Trillion USD divided by 21,000,000 BTC = 12.5 Million USD

nextgencoin

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Quote from: newrad on July 26, 2015, 10:10:11 PM

If your scenario were to happen then the "price" of bitcoin would not matter, because Bitcoin would be the preferred currency to spend money. Until people stop looking at BTC like some kind of stock, and instead look at it as a better means of transaction the adoption of Bitcoin will be hear sooner than later.

The mentality of "how much U.S. Dollars cant I get for bitcoin in a few years" needs to stop.... Now.

No one said anything about US Dollars? But it's an understandable way to describe wealth based on our current system. Duh

If you like we can use horses or cattle or houses to describe the potential value of Bitcoin in the future.....and yes if BTC did become the reserve currency then sorry but for many on this forum it would 'matter' groan...

nextgencoin

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Quote from: AgentofCoin on July 26, 2015, 10:43:41 PM

Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 09:57:10 PM

Let's just say Bitcoin did do as well as most people most positive scenarios. Say the dollar collapses and Bitcoin is seen as a haven and say within 5-15 years Bitcoin was the reserve currency, the backbone of the global money supply. I'm sure other fiat currencies would still exist but what would the price likely be in this super positive scenario?
...

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.

IMO

Sounds nuts but it's actually way more accurate that winkleloss bros saying it could get to $50,000. I mean Coinbase CEO is now saying it could become the reserve currency. In the eye of a currency collapse storm which we are heading toward its not that crazy to think people would reach for the one currency that actually worked.

AgentofCoin

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Quote from: nextgencoin on July 26, 2015, 09:57:10 PM

Let's just say Bitcoin did do as well as most people most positive scenarios. Say the dollar collapses and Bitcoin is seen as a haven and say within 5-15 years Bitcoin was the reserve currency, the backbone of the global money supply. I'm sure other fiat currencies would still exist but what would the price likely be in this super positive scenario?
...

I think, to answer your question in present terms, super positive price for 1 BTC would be around 5 Million USD.
This number is only based on USA.
If the world began using BTC as its only means of currency exchange, then 15.5 Million USD per 1 BTC.

IMO

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

world reserve currency could be roughly on the order of a ten trillion dollar market cap.

newrad

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If your scenario were to happen then the "price" of bitcoin would not matter, because Bitcoin would be the preferred currency to spend money. Until people stop looking at BTC like some kind of stock, and instead look at it as a better means of transaction the adoption of Bitcoin will be hear sooner than later.

The mentality of "how much U.S. Dollars cant I get for bitcoin in a few years" needs to stop.... Now.

nextgencoin

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Let's just say Bitcoin did do as well as most people most positive scenarios. Say the dollar collapses and Bitcoin is seen as a haven and say within 5-15 years Bitcoin was the reserve currency, the backbone of the global money supply. I'm sure other fiat currencies would still exist but what would the price likely be in this super positive scenario?

the reason i ask is I'm looking at the marketcap of Bitcoin and a few billion these days is almost nothing in the global a big picture so in theory the biggest gains could be ahead?

Topic: Mass adoption? Seriously what would price be? (Read 2151 times)