Math Problem - Odds | Bitcointalksearch.org

Laskoo

full member

Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Quote from: Vod on August 22, 2019, 07:08:17 AM

Quote from: Laskoo on August 14, 2019, 10:48:31 PM

I know that the odds of guessing 6 out of 6 in the exact order (order is important) = 1/1000000.

In exact order? That means there can only be one right number each time. Each guess has one less chance (unless you can reuse numbers, which you did not specify)

Let's say you have 10 possible numbers
First ball you have a 1/10 chance
Second ball you have a 1/9 chance
3 = 1/8
4 = 1/7
5 = 1/6
6 = 1/5

That is 1 in 10*9*8*7*6*5 or 1 in 152,100 for just ten balls.

Yes, sorry I forgot to specify that the numbers are reused and yes, you must guess them in the exact order.

For example:
- you pick a ticket with these numbers: 5 6 5 8 8 1.
- the numbers drawn by the lottery are 1 5 7 8 2 1.

You guessed 2 numbers, the 4th and the 6th.

I want to know what are the odd for this to happen. (also for hitting 3,4,5 and 6 numbers).

Thanks!

bivaetjetakoe

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Activity: 420

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This puzzle is very difficult, I will not be able to solve it

Vod

legendary

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Licking my boob since 1970

Quote from: Laskoo on August 14, 2019, 10:48:31 PM

I know that the odds of guessing 6 out of 6 in the exact order (order is important) = 1/1000000.

In exact order? That means there can only be one right number each time. Each guess has one less chance (unless you can reuse numbers, which you did not specify)

Let's say you have 10 possible numbers
First ball you have a 1/10 chance
Second ball you have a 1/9 chance
3 = 1/8
4 = 1/7
5 = 1/6
6 = 1/5

That is 1 in 10*9*8*7*6*5 or 1 in 152,100 for just ten balls.

Patentico

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 2

Quote from: Laskoo on August 22, 2019, 12:38:21 AM

@Patentico I think you are wrong because matching 5 in 6 there are only 6 combination.

There are 9 different cobinations of getting the 6th number wrong also,
so there are 6*9 = 54 different combinations!

Patentico

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 2

You can check different combinations on this site:
https://www.lotterypost.com/odds

You forget to take into account the probability of failure: 9 in 10 chance
If you want x out of 6 successes then there must be 6-x failures
plus there are C(6,x) ways to arrange these combinations of success & failures

Quote from: Laskoo on August 14, 2019, 10:48:31 PM

Note: order is important.

P(x) = (1/10)^x * (9/10)^(6-x) * C(6,x)

Laskoo

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Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Thank you for the answers guys!

@Patentico I think you are wrong because matching 5 in 6 there are only 6 combination.

@Ankol99 there are only 6 numbers, that can be repeated so applying your formula would be:

1 of 6 = 1/6 = 1 in 6 = 16.666666666%
2 of 6 = 1/6*1/6 = 1 in 36 = 2.777777777%
3 of 6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1 in 216 = 0.462962962%
.........

This is the solution I am looking for, thanks again.

Ankol99

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

fulse
match 0 1 in 1.88 ))

n = number of possible drawn numbers
k = number of drawn numbers in winning combination

if numbers can be repeated

1 of 10 1/10 1 in 10
2 of 10 1/10*1/10 1 in 100
3 of 10 1/10*1/10*1/10 1 in 1000
...

if the numbers cannot be repeated

1 of 10 1/10 1 in 10
2 of 10 1/10*1/9 1 in 90
3 of 10 1/10*1/9*1/8 1 in 720
4 of 10 1/10*1/9*1/8*1/7 1 in 5040
...

Patentico

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 2

n = number of possible drawn numbers,
k = number of drawn numbers in winning combination
x = matching drawn numbers
C(k,x) = k!/(x!*(k-x)!)

considering the numbers are drawn from separate drums:
P(x) = (1/n)^x * (1-1/n)^(k-x) * C(k,x)

k=6,
if n=10

P(6) = 1 / 10^6
P(5) = 9 * 6 / 10^6
p(4) = 9^2 * 15 / 10^6
p(3) = 9^3 * 20 / 10^6
p(2) = 9^4 * 15 / 10^6
p(1) = 9^5 * 6 / 10^6
p(0) = 9^6 / 10^6

Match    Combinations     Odds
Match 6   1         1 in 1,000,000
Match 5    54         1 in 18,518.52
Match 4    1,215      1 in 823.05
Match 3    14,580      1 in 68.59
Match 2    98,415      1 in 10.16
Match 1    354,294      1 in 2.82
Match 0    531,441      1 in 1.88

Laskoo

full member

Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Quote from: Ankol99 on August 20, 2019, 12:46:59 PM

Hi, it's simple
1 of 6 = 1/6
2 of 6 = 1/6*1/6 = 1/36
3 of 6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216
.....

Got it, thank you!

Ankol99

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

Hi, it's simple
1 of 6 = 1/6
2 of 6 = 1/6*1/6 = 1/36
3 of 6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216
.....

Laskoo

full member

Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Quote from: Mavefyn0 on August 16, 2019, 10:24:29 PM

I know the answer to this problem but I don't want to write it, let others think. We passed this task in the 7th grade

Good idea!

Maybe you can share it on PM? If you want of course.

Thanks anyway!

Mavefyn0

newbie

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I know the answer to this problem but I don't want to write it, let others think. We passed this task in the 7th grade

Kiqeqijywa123

newbie

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This task is really very interesting

Laskoo

full member

Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Quote from: mrvuit on August 15, 2019, 01:14:19 AM

Quote from: Laskoo on August 14, 2019, 10:48:31 PM

Hello all!

I have a math problem which I struggle to solve. Any help is much appreciated so thank you in advance!

Let's assume we want to play lottery and 6 numbers are drawn.

I know that the odds of guessing 6 out of 6 in the exact order (order is important) = 1/1000000.

What are the odds of guessing:

5 of 6 = ?

4 of 6 = ?

3 of 6 = ?

2 of 6 = ?

1 of 6 = ?

Note: order is important.

Thank you!

So 6 of 6 is 1/1000000 = 0.0001% (min 000000 -> max 999999)

5 of 6 = 1/100000 = 0.001% (00000->99999)

4 of 6 = 1/10000 = 0.01% (0000->9999)

3 of 6 = 1/1000 = 0.1% (000->999)

2 of 6 = 1/100 = 1% (00->99)

1 of 6 = 1/10 = 10% (0->9 | 1/6 numbers are correct)

Maybe I'm wrong, I'm not too good at math.

Thanks for your answer!

I'm afraid you are wrong since 5 of 6 = 6 possibilities in 1000000. But I don't know the rest...

mrvuit

copper member

Activity: 81

Merit: 85

Quote from: Laskoo on August 14, 2019, 10:48:31 PM

Hello all!

I have a math problem which I struggle to solve. Any help is much appreciated so thank you in advance!

Let's assume we want to play lottery and 6 numbers are drawn.

I know that the odds of guessing 6 out of 6 in the exact order (order is important) = 1/1000000.

What are the odds of guessing:

5 of 6 = ?

4 of 6 = ?

3 of 6 = ?

2 of 6 = ?

1 of 6 = ?

Note: order is important.

Thank you!

So 6 of 6 is 1/1000000 = 0.0001% (min 000000 -> max 999999)

5 of 6 = 1/100000 = 0.001% (00000->99999)

4 of 6 = 1/10000 = 0.01% (0000->9999)

3 of 6 = 1/1000 = 0.1% (000->999)

2 of 6 = 1/100 = 1% (00->99)

1 of 6 = 1/10 = 10% (0->9 | 1/6 numbers are correct)

Maybe I'm wrong, I'm not too good at math.

Laskoo

full member

Activity: 350

Merit: 144

Hello all!

I have a math problem which I struggle to solve. Any help is much appreciated so thank you in advance!

Let's assume we want to play lottery and 6 numbers are drawn.

I know that the odds of guessing 6 out of 6 in the exact order (order is important) = 1/1000000.

What are the odds of guessing:

5 of 6 = ?

4 of 6 = ?

3 of 6 = ?

2 of 6 = ?

1 of 6 = ?

Note: order is important.

Thank you!

Topic: Math Problem - Odds (Read 202 times)