Topic: Maybe everyone here will learn a lesson about pre-orders (Read 3553 times)

If you view getting a ASIC via preorder only as an investment then it's a crappy bet. You almost double the money in a month but the certainty that you'll get to do that before others is low. You could be lucky. It's similar to the early investing when Bitcoin was young.

However, if you want a piece of hardware you can run for another reason (getting involved? a decentralised method rather than exchange, bitcoin commitment tattoo) then it's maybe it's worth it.

Con rule number 1

"Make sure it is exhibited that in no way do u need or really want the money "

..its the same as if they started the statement "This is not a scam " so it must not be

BFL are what BFL are ...a convicted con artist Sales machine using other peoples money to try and do something to make more money

The end

Kickstarters dont take 2k-5k-30k in USD

What can i say ..except "where my fucking money arsehole"

Does that explain where i feel u should be in the scheme of things..

'

Everything from BFLso far has proven to be lies & twisted truths

+1

Agreed

Kickstarter doesn't charge your credit card until the required amount of money is reached, so it isn't exactly the same. I'm not aware of what happens when a Kickstarter project doesn't produce after that happens, though.

2 until the next one bails out! Carefully read the communication and guess who will be next.

Good point !

So I can presume there is 2 player left on the ASIC scene !

You don't have anything but someones word that they actually had any VC.

Now I am not posting that as anything more than a joke. But that is what it comes down to.

Did you see an official post from Trendon that he will never pay back his 'investors'?

I bet you will never see an official statement from one of the 'ASIC vendors'. The pattern is shift release date, execuses, silence. If communication enters the last stage, you know the game is over. There will be no official 'game over' announcement.

Is this all just talks, or there is some real news about any of the 3 main asic company that announced they will never ship ?
I think unless any official talk about not shipping anything at all, the gamble does continue !
By the way, I still keep my funds to see if BFL or Avalon will ship..
If I remember correctly, Avalon are supposed to ship soon !  Still interesting to follow those, even if there is almost no new info scince almost a month !

Hope some of you can point me to some facts, links, news infos I've missed

EDIT : I've found this : https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=1041.msg3093
bAsic = seems to go out of business, this has'nt been a fact yet, but heading to !

Ummm no? The announcement was posted before they started taking pre-orders, so that cant' be right. Try again.

That makes sense.  I'm more talking about the way the announcement itself was written, to avoid any attention on the product, and misdirect attention onto the hosting service, with bold ALL CAPS proclamations that it as THE REAL DEAL, and such.

It may still be a viable service (though it's not for me).  Unfortunately, if you do it, I think you'll be hosting something other than bASICs, since I don't think that bASIC will ever come to exist now.

Essentially these pre-orders were just like how kickstarter works.... essentially you are not buying a product but giving the company money in hopes that they will come out with a product eventually..

still not the best idea...

THIS!

Hopefully 5 years from now bitcoins will still be around and traded, and people will just look back on all of this pre-order bs as a blip on a radar.  Some people will have made a nice profit by investing early and others will wish they did.  It will probably make an interesting book for someone to write in the future.

Yes. Trendon, Tom and all the others are damaging bitcoin as much as they can. It's hard to tell anybody about the advantages of bitcoin with all those scammers.

All this crazy drama had me raising a cc chargeback today.

The bad thing is that it's going to be harder to convince new potential investors about Bitcoin investments.

Bad news spreads like wildfire.

Well based on this...

Sorry Dave, but everybody who give up control over it's mining hardware is a fool. For me it's the same than keeping my bitcoins at a 'bitcoin bank'.

Your involvement in Toms long con makes things even worse.

so much for the plan.

also, while we're on topic...i guess the late refund requests will have low chance of receiving refunds?

FWIW, the hosting thing is my brainchild and was not meant as a diversion.  I just thought we were close enough to a ship date that it could be announced.  Tom actually announced it ahead of me - there were still details left to be worked out. 

I still see it as a good potential business and may yet offer it as a service - that is if my credibility isn't totally shot with this crowd 

This.  A first-run of ASICs for a young startup is very high risk, even excluding the possibility of being a scam.

My method was pre-ordering from all vendors, in the hopes that one of them would actually ship.

private venture capital = Bitcoin community.

It's the very first sentence of their initial announcement:

Later on down the announcement:

If they did then I don't see why they needed to take pre order monies so far in advance. That makes no sense.

This is what I heard as well.

Umm I thought in the initial anouncement, BFL stated that they DID receive a private venture capital investor?

Bullshit. BFL and other vendors could have gotten private venture capital. Instead they preyed upon the overeager bitcoin nerds who could not see beyond the insanely high hash rate estimates for the different "ASIC" products listed.

Hate to say it, but it seems my gut feeling 6 weeks ago was correct.

I've yet to see any real level of professionalism from any of these ASIC manufacturer's thats been deserved of any pre-order investment captial.
None of them have convinced me yet they are capable of running businesses handling 6 figure turnovers.

I disagree.

ASIC preorders are high risk but they are also high reward.

Take for example Avalon's first batch, which is expected to ship 300 66Gh/s units.  This will double the network hashrate.  A single $1300 unit will return $2200 in a month ($1460 if ASICMINER brings another 20 TH/s online).  This is a ridiculous return on investment that is more in line with investing in a startup than purchasing a consumer product.

I placed early preorders with all three vendors.  I did this with the assumption that my payment would be used to fund development.  I also assumed that I risked losing my money to scams or simply a failure to deliver due to technical issues.  When I ordered the upgrade to my FPGA minirig, I factored in a 10-20% chance that BFL was pulling a long con into my calculations.  The potential benefits of receiving the first batch of 1TH/s miners out-weighed this risk.  If there was no risk, why wouldn't the ASIC companies just mine themselves until it was only marginally profitable, and then sell units to the general public?

There are two optimal points in time to buy ASICs:
1) First in line (high risk, potential for high reward)
2) After the product has shipped (low risk, low but more deterministic reward)

Everything in between is only slightly less risk than being first in line, with significantly less reward.  Should you preorder an ASIC now? Probably not... why not wait until someone delivers instead of handing over your coins to get in the back of a huge lines?  However, I believe that early ASIC orders, while speculative, had a positive expected value.

With regards to customers who placed orders with BTC, it is unfortunate for them that BTC has more than doubled, but no one could have predicted that.  The exchange rate could of moved in the other direction.  There were many opportunities to hedge this risk.

(I just requested a refund from bASIC)

That's BS. These projects didn't NEED to happen in the first place. The 51% thing has been debunked as a viable threat because the attacker shoots themselves in the foot.

Someone would have come along and developed an ASIC on their own regardless.

I still stand by my original post. If these companies needed pre-order money to FUND an ASIC, then they should have offered terms which reflected the true risk of the project by paying equity or interest on the customers capital investment.

Pre-orders are for established products were the demand outstrips supply.

Pre-orders are NOT an ethical way to raise capital for a start-up project.

This is a unique time in Bitcoin's history. I don't imagine this will be repeated again. I think you lack perspective in not realizing that these products would have not been created without the pre-orders. It simply was not possible. In the future you would be a fool to preorder. Most understand that this process was a gamble. Some will win and some will lose.

The bottom line is people should never give anyone money in advance to simply purchase a product.

A deposit? Sure, especially on a product which is custom made. Although ASIC's are only custom when originally designed.

If these companies had enough capital to fund the development of their products through their first production run, then there was NO good reason for them to accept pre-orders.

They could only be doing this for nefarious reasons, either to squelch competition or because they were lying about their capital position.

Again, I could understand if they needed to match their initial production run with expected demand, then they would take a deposit to be sure their customers were serious.

The only ASIC project which had the right to take pre-order capital was block eruptor run by friedcat. That project was clear about risk and will be paying a return to their investors for that risk.

I'm kind of embarrassed that I waited as long as I did to request a refund.  I feel like I just *barely* made it out unscathed (aside from missing out on ~20% gain in BTC value).

In retrospect, the hosting plan announcement should have been enough evidence for me to decide to get out.  It said 3 words about the product, and the rest was diversion.

There were many small signs before that too.

I nearly fell victim to this bullshit myself. Fortunately, I got my credit card refund out of bASIC over a month ago.

I saw the writing on the wall and knew this shit was going to get ugly. I was supposed to actually help Tom put the units together. We had phone calls and numerous communications. Then the communication got slower and the delays started. Something didn't smell right.

Maybe every other vendor will ship, but it wouldn't surprise me if some don't.

Funding a business venture with pre-order money is bad business. It's especially bad business if you are the one putting up your money.

THERE IS NO REASON FOR ANY SANE PERSON TO BE A CAPITAL INVESTOR AND NOT RECEIVE AN EQUITY STAKE OR INTEREST PAID ON YOUR CAPITAL!

If you give a business your money in advance and there is no specific, contracted date for you to receive your product, then YOU are a capital investor. Especially if there isn't even a working documented prototype.

Simply getting a "place in line" is not good enough. You should be compensated for assuming so much risk. Yet the foolish people on this forum justified this bullshit for months.

How long has BFL held money now? 6 months? Go ahead justify away, but the amount of money the folks who paid BFL in June have now lost is ridiculous.

It's called opportunity cost and those folks have lost plenty of opportunities, namely their BTC are worth nearly three times as much as when they sent them to BFL 6 months ago.

If everyone had simply made these companies show a working device before they parted with their money, all of this bullshit could have been avoided.

I bet if this had been the community's response, these companies would probably have already delivered. You see, in business, when you actually need to produce a product to get paid, it kind of acts as a motivating factor.

Just because bitcoin is a decentralized currency with no central authority, does not mean the ecosystem has to function like the wild west. A little ethics and some informed consumers would go a long way toward widespread adoption of bitcoin.

Unfortunately, I see more people interested in easy money. No wonder why more money has been made in bitcoin through scamming and drug dealing than anything else.