Measuring crisis effects | Bitcointalksearch.org

dbc23

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

Crisis comes with many hidden underlying factors that the politicians and government agencies hide from the masses. Now in situations of crisis be it pandemic, war or economic melt down. Factors that could possibly cause inflation is unavailability of materials or uncontrollable minting of currencies to forcefully balance an economy.

To set a balance to stabilize this economy will require a lot of jobs from this government personnel's and one of those is reducing the total money in circulation and improve on their production sector other than importations and this will not be easily implemented following how much this government will lose in the process

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Quote from: The Cryptovator on February 22, 2022, 12:59:31 PM

We are encountering two crises right now. The first is created by nature called COVID-19 and the second is created by humans called war. Both crises made the situation unstable for the global economy. And the effect of Bitcoin price is pretty clear how the global economy shaking. The current situation of Russia Ukraine is effective more than COVID. We have seen Bitcoin price was in ATH though there was pandemic. But right now the situation is more worst. However, the market wouldn't recover until solve the issue between Russia and Ukraine.

Yesterday we saw some recovery in the price of bitcoin but even now we are below the 40k level which right now is acting as a resistance for further growth, the situation in Ukraine is far worse than what we could have imagined, even if during the last report I saw there were not an exorbitant number of casualties, at the same time it seems that Russia is determined to annex the whole country, and even if the war does not last long it will have long term effects on the economy of the world.

zeuner

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on February 22, 2022, 02:11:30 PM

And I'm puzzled about OP's talk of markets being negatively affected by the pandemic, because the stock market has been booming all throughout the lockdowns, the shutdowns, mandatory masking, and all that good stuff.

Good point. But when you look at different sectors, there is much that _has_ suffered. Neglecting that there is recovery needed would imply that we accept pandemic-related measures (contact restrictions etc.) as the new normal situation.

crwth

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My take on this is that since the pandemic, many people have experienced a loss of income stream in one way or another. The need for money circulation has stopped, and many people requested the government to take action, and they have. The result of that is by printing more money, and they have done so, and then it solved the immediate thing in front of the problem but not thinking about the adverse effects to the economy. Inflation.

I think it's hard to take and fix what the money has gone into, but having regulations on prices can have some repercussions.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Now nearly everyone complains about inflation.

Everyone is talking about inflation because that's the most obvious sign that things have gone seriously wrong somewhere--if you looked at the stock, real estate, commodity, and crypto markets you'd think that everything was just buzzing along, A-OK. What little effect the pandemic had on businesses wasn't reflected in the stock market. In fact, as I've said here many times the US stock market has been in a bull run for at least 13 years. It's unbelievable.

Last year I started a thread about the cost of sending things through the post office going up, which I thought was creeping upward at an unusual rate. In 2016 the cost of a 1st class stamp actually went down from $0.49 to $0.46. Never before had I heard of that happening, but at the time I made that thread I wrote this:

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on January 27, 2021, 06:21:46 PM

$8.45 it cost me to mail a small Flat Rate Priority Mail box. It was $8.30 just a few days ago. Crazy.

And these days I'm still sending a good amount of mail using the small flat rate boxes--and at the moment it costs $9.45. That's an 11.8% increase in one year if my math is correct. Yikes.

Wexnident

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The effect of those crises was mostly just panic selling no? I mean if you look at the crypto market, yes, it crashed when news of Covid went out and every country implemented lockdowns, but I'm pretty sure every one of us saw how that actually made Bitcoin grow or increase more to what it initially was. I see the current issue with Russia-Ukraine as the covid one really (in terms of market effect). We'd experience a temporary dump that would in the end, lead to a greater growth, or at the very least, recover to what it initally was.

Darker45

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Generally, you need to look at the GDP since that's the most common tool to assess a country's economy. However, since you are somehow doubting the nominal values it is providing, especially in the face of high inflation, you are to avoid looking at the nominal GDP and focus instead on the real GDP.

The problem with nominal GDP is that it doesn't take into account the seemingly uncontrollable inflation that we are all experiencing right now due to the pandemic.

So, in a way, nominal GDP may be flawed or perhaps it has its shortcomings. It might fail to measure whether or not there is indeed growth even if the numbers say so. But the real GDP will provide this.

kaya11

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There is nothing wrong in the market today, Bitcoin's price is okay. See how the pandemic started? All was good, price of Bitcoin was okay but then after months it goes increasing and even reached new all time high. As for now it is bleeding but it is normal, this kind of activity in the market is normal. I think for some crisis there is a positive outcome for the market. People will rethink of investing their saved money and that includes in crypto investments too, and it means more money is coming. They would do whatever it takes to increase those money to go battling inflation, pandemic and other occurrences in the world that affects the economy.

Mauser

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

Interesting approach to measuring recoveries and crisis. It's been a while since my economics classes in university, but what I remember is that the currency of a nation is not a good indicator for the state of the economy. A strong currency will show also a strong economy, but the government would try and lower the strength of the economy to make their exports more attractive internationally. The lower the currency the cheaper are the exports of a country. So a cheap currency doesn't necessary mean that the economy is weak too. Even with inflation we can't accurately say that is in crisis. Only when inflation hits high double digits and is in a spiral the economy will be in crisis.

davis196

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

I'm sure that the economists are measuring the real effects of the crisis,not just the nominal effects.
The problem is that the "average Joe" cares only about the nominal or monetary effects.He doesn't care about the real growth of the industrial production.The mainstream media gives him what he wants-a bunch of nominal numbers.
The crisis,which was caused by the pandemic is more or less over.We are heading towards another crisis,which will be caused by the conflict between Russia/China and the Western World.
Natural gas prices will be increasing (because of Putin)and the inflation in Europe will keep going up,unfortunately.

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

There's now another event that will trigger to make the inflation higher, we know what's with Ukraine and Russia. The NATO, US and all of them that are involved.
The market will continue to tank because of this. But as with the covid 10 pandemic, it's different for the crypto market. It became the time of bull run which is the opposite expectation of the majority due to the crisis that it had started. As for the possible war, the market, all markets will be affected on this but let's see if this is another skip for the crypto market.

TheNineClub

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Looking at what affects the market solely in a bubble (looking only at one factor) is flawed. The economy was always a combination of factors, so if we measure it just by crisis measures, it's still not enough because there is more at play here. So predictions market predictions (in the long run) are just a coin toss at this moment. Perhaps more advanced computing could do a better job of taking in all those variables.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: Gozie51 on February 22, 2022, 10:58:34 AM

At this time it is still premature to talk about market recovery as you see in CMC that coins are in bleeding mode.

Interesting that you took OP's question to mean crypto markets as opposed to stocks, commodities, and other traditional ones (which is what I was thinking about).

And I'm puzzled about OP's talk of markets being negatively affected by the pandemic, because the stock market has been booming all throughout the lockdowns, the shutdowns, mandatory masking, and all that good stuff. The way I see it, no recovery is needed because there's nothing to recover from. Even with bitcoin it's true. Remember what the price was in March 2020? It was under $10k, and after COVID started to become all anyone ever talked about it dipped briefly and then began to skyrocket until it had hit a new ATH. Therefore, since the start of the pandemic bitcoin's price has more than tripled. What's wrong with a market like that?

so98nn

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The assumption is not flawed as long as it fits in the definition of inflation itself. Economist talk about the inflation or depriving situation based on national development in terms of money inflow and outflow from the central treasury. There is always incubator which takes care of back up money in the emergency situation however in the pandemic the timespan led to worst possible down turns to few of the countries. One of the most powerful country like USA itself is example of this. Pandemic has really hit us hard, so I don’t think any assumptions are flawed here.

The Cryptovator

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We are encountering two crises right now. The first is created by nature called COVID-19 and the second is created by humans called war. Both crises made the situation unstable for the global economy. And the effect of Bitcoin price is pretty clear how the global economy shaking. The current situation of Russia Ukraine is effective more than COVID. We have seen Bitcoin price was in ATH though there was pandemic. But right now the situation is more worst. However, the market wouldn't recover until solve the issue between Russia and Ukraine.

Silberman

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Quote from: zeuner on February 22, 2022, 10:47:26 AM

Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

Politicians and economist are experts at twisting the truth, so despite the inflation that we are going through I am sure that they will use nominal values to claim the crisis is over and try to calm people down, however as you state this is a mistake as the inflation is really high around most countries of the world, however people are not dumb and even they realize when they are being lied to by the governments, especially if their pay does not grow and now they have to spend way more of it on just paying their basic necessities.

fiulpro

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If you look at the overall market price of Russia, it has fallen off quite a bit. At the same time, the price of oil due to limited oil supplies is sky rocketing. We cannot talk about the market recovery at the moment since most of the stocks and cryptocurrencies would be down, there are going to be sanctions that would be imposed in a jiffy that would make things more complicated as well. Considering the recovery I think we are already struggling with the market crash due to the covid therefore it's hard to sum everything up. Therefore market crisis is not just going to affect one place locally but it's going to have a wide global effect as well.
-The price of oil would climb faster than ever
-Stocks related to Russia would fall drastically
-International relations would be jeopardized.

Gozie51

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At this time it is still premature to talk about market recovery as you see in CMC that coins are in bleeding mode. This is to show the market is still down. In the real life as I think inflation is taking alot of percentage of daily savings that may have come back to the market in cryptocurrency investment. There is market instability with the Ukraine and Russia disagreement so far , so this has yet not given the recovery expected.

zeuner

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Crises (e.g. due to the COVID-19 pandemic) damage markets. Economists look at the effects and try to figure out whether the markets recover. But it seems this is measured in nominal values. Now nearly everyone complains about inflation. In the end, there may still be less effective value even if it's said a given market has recovered from the crisis.

So, could the question whether the markets recovered be answered more accurately when measuring in a currency where the money supply is outside of control? Or would this assumption be flawed?

Topic: Measuring crisis effects (Read 147 times)