Topic: Milestones (Read 12689 times)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I wouldn't exactly call it a stagnation.

Bitcoin survived 2011 and 2012, despite two years of price stagnation.

I think we can say that this is the "worst case scenario" of when we know without a doubt Bitcoin will increase in value.

So, two more years of wandering in the valley of the shadow of death then.

Around August 2016 according to bitcoinclock.com. The exact date isn't known though

When is that?

I guess we will have to wait till the next halving of the block reward.

We keep doing down in price because the supply of BTC is outpacing the demand more each day. Until that pattern changes, I would not expect a sustained bull market.

I have posted "we will never see $xxx.xx" again only to eat my words.  I have decided not to say that anymore.  It does feel like we are way undervalued right now and I have no idea why we keep dipping back down.  Maybe when the price hits $600 and up we can safely say we will never see the 300's or even 400's again. 

I need to update my spreadsheet that tracks this data when I have time...

I had to go offline a bit. It seems the bet offer has been retracted. No worries, I imagine we'll be going below $400 quite a few times in the coming weeks.

If you were to want to structure a genuine bet regarding "BTC prices will NOT go below ____X____ by ____Y___ time"  I am sure that there would be quite a few posters on this forum who would be willing to take you up on such a bet, especially if it is only for .05 BTC and they perceive that it is fairly likely that they could win the bet.

Personally, I am rarely so confident as to the short-term BTC price movement.. but there may be even instances and certain framings of bets that I would be willing to get involved in.

In this case, as you seem to have conceded, you never really gave enough time for any real serious and genuine consideration to the settlement of your bet terms, so in those kinds of circumstances, you will be hard-pressed to find any takers.. in order to genuinely follow through.. that is if you had been attempting to make such a bet within such a short time window.

Anyhow, since you seemed to have NOT been serious about your bet, proposing the bet was more like trolling... and sorry to use such a harsh description which seems to have been the case, here.

if he had taken the bet I'd have lost, but I'm not interested in betting actually, i just wanted justusranvier to update the milestones, looks like we cant cross off 389.11 yet.

bitcoin moves from week hands to strong, 0.05 could just slip through my fingers.

At least you could come up with a more interesting bet...  and also be clear to settle the terms of the bet before it is lost.

This one is likely to be lost within 24 hours, no?  possibly more likely within less than 4 hours.

Ok Mr Big, my first bet with Bitcoin, - ever - I'm now a gambling man
I'll take you up if you agree to these terms,
price average as displayed on http://winkdex.com/

start: Oct 14, 2014 8:01pm EDT (12:01am UTC) fro 1 year. edit: effective the moment you reply when the price is above $398

if I win you can send the 0.05 BTC to this address: 16uniUFpbhrAxAWMZ9qEkcT9Wf34ETB4Tt and sign a message posted in this thread.

if during any time over the next year it dips below 398 on the Winkdex I'll send 0.05 to an address of your choosing and sign it if you want.

good to see people paying attention.

it seems just BTC-e is lagging, then again i operate much slower that most, if you dont mind I'll take my time 

Argh! You beat me to it...

Well, looks like we're back under 398 due to a small selloff. So it's good that Adrian didn't shake on the bet yet .

Way to jinx it   lasted about 30 minutes lol

I really enjoyed this thread last year.  This year?  Well not yet anyways!  Hopefully you are right about passing 398 for the last time.  I agree that chances are we are only moving upwards from this point on.

How long of a timeframe on the bet? Are you willing to have an escrow hold the bet money? What exchange are you going by?

1 million / BTC @2018 

I think it's time to bump this thread.
I'm betting 0.05 BTC we just passed 398 for the last time.

Bump

It's always easier to clear the milestones the second time around.

Must you bump when the price is dropping? 

Yes.

I have never enjoyed exponential curves as much as I do now.  I think almost all of us have this feeling that there is no way it can keep up the rate of growth.  I think our minds have a hard time really processing how growth can work like this.  With Bitcoin prices, those of us that have some coins are very in tune with how fast the growth is and it is often jaw dropping.  Of course there are corrections but it still just seems so abnormal and we keep thinking "It has to slow down!"   But if we look at the history of how new technologies are adopted and the rate of the adoption it does make sense on paper. 

I guess we just need to buckle ourselves in and enjoy the wild ride, as unbelievable as it has already been!  The growth next year, if it stays on track, will really shock everyone I believe, myself included if I am honest with myself!

You are missing the whole point of the list...they are 'landmarks' on the exponential curve....and look at the dates between the milestones that have been crossed off.  Read the OPs explanation on page 2.

Nope, you need exponentionally more money to go to such high BTC prices. It is simply unlikely so fast.

Check page 1.

It's a reality list

its touch and then back why you not cutting this 1000$ in the list

Updated

We crossed another milestone last week 04-Dec-2012 is now over 1 year old.

Hopefully we can get to $1000 and stay there the next time.

All those $5 coins I foolishly spent

Woot $1000!!


But honestly this is nothing compared to the 500x return people got to enjoy in 2011, and the 8-9x return form feburary - april this year. Give me $2000 and $10,000 already. $1000 doesn't really feel like much of a milestone

Yea!!!  $1000!!!  That is an amazing milestone!

Can 2014 move as fast as 2013 has so far?  If so, we are looking at hitting $100,000 by the end of next year! 

Seems hard to believe.  I am sure $1000 was hard for people to believe when it was only $10 though. 

Still waiting 

Sorry Dafar.  I guess you have not seen "BitChicksHusband on the board yet?"  I am sure many girls would love to date you when you are a BTC millionaire though!   The hard part will be finding a girl that is not after your bitcoins pretty soon here!

When I married my husband we were both totally broke college students, so he will never be able to claim that I married him for his money!  I guess that is a good thing.  We took our vows "for rich or poor" seriously.  We have done the "poor" so maybe we can move on over to the "rich" now?   I guess we are already rich in BTC in the fact that even holding a few will put us ahead of most of the world and now that the next milestone to check off is $1000!    That is just crazy!  I have to be honest, when we started buying several months ago that was just a dream that we thought could maybe happen and here we are.  I am not even sure what to think.  It is a wild ride! 

hahahahahah xD

This guy might have something to say about that:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/bitchickshusband-154332

will u bee my girlfriend?   

Not quite yet.

I go by the daily weighted price on Mt Gox, so assuming that we stay this high by the end of the day (UTC) then I'll cross off $794.33.

Bumping this because its one of my favourite threads and I think we are due a milestone crossed off.

woot we're half way there??

At the rate we are going it seems like it could be next the end of next year.  Looking at the chart 2013 has been a pretty impressive year with many milestones.  It will be interesting to see how 2014 goes for sure.

I'm waiting for when BTCs are worth $10,000..... do you think it'll happen within 2 years?

Bump

This is the first time I can remember crossing off two milestones in the same day.

Bump for $398.11

$316.23 crossed.

It's only been two days since the last milestone, which probably means at some point we'll have to cross it again.

$251.19 surpassed on the daily weighted price for the first time ever.

This is also the decibel scale.  Another way to think about justusranvier's list, is that each milestone corresponds to a price increase of exactly +1 dB.

A few more parities spring to mind, like "Big Mac parity" (we're way past that), "daily average income parity" (we're past that for practically any country I can think of), monthly income, yearly income, cost of average housing, etc.

For historical comparisons, those make a lot more sense than e.g. gold or silver parity.

kingdoms 

I tend to agree with casascius. The first real milestone was parity with the USD. The second was parity with an ounce of silver.

The next real milestone will be parity with an ounce of gold.

After that? No other historic form of currency comes to mind to compare it to with regards to parity once you get past gold.

I just added those a few days ago because someone else asked for them a few posts up.

nice, 2 milestones crossed in one update.
does it make sense to cross of the milestones that are over 2 years old in green?

The first time we got above $158.49 on the weighted daily price back in April we were only up there for four days. It will be interesting to see what happens this time around.

in next few days you must click next step as its going now next milestone is very near to touch

12-16. Just in time to pay for my daughter's college.  I guess she will be able to go to Harvard after all.   Then again,  who needs college with that much cash?  Maybe it will be better to give her money to start a business of some sort!

The data start at $0.05. I added $0.10 to $1.00.

Can you also include from $0.01 until $1, that would be great.

thanks for helping me with timing:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3055867

In terms of the long term trend, I don't think the elevated prices on Mt Gox are that important so I'm going to keep using their price for this. What's ~10% when we're talking about tracing a movement that's expected to span 6 orders of magnitude?

i see, Just coincidence then that the next step was hit on Bitstamp and Gox. (you could just switch no need to revisit the past if you thought it relevant.)

I started using Mt Gox, and I don't know if there's any reasonable way to switch to another data source without starting over from scratch.

Are you using Bitstamp or CoinDesk BPI

I am sure people thought BTC being worth over $125 was wishful thinking.  I think by the time BTC gets to this point it will have to be more "mainstream" and be used regularly.  This will help stabalize the price.  As time goes on there will be less early adopters holding onto large amounts of Bitcoin and there will be less risk of massive sell offs and less fluctuations in price as well.  Right now (or the next few years) is the most volatile Bitcoin will be.

Do you honestly think that fiat will last forever?  If not, then explain your ludicrous scoffing at a market capitalization of the most established cryptocurrency that is in the trillions of USD (unless you think that there will be dozens of valuable cryptocurrencies that collectively have a market capitalization in the trillions of USD, or that gold and silver will be commonly used as media of exchange again). 

You don't just get to ignore facts and logic while hand waving things away without being called out on it. 

Why would you sell if you could buy stuff with your Bitcoin? If Bitcoin reaches high numbers ( 4 digits ) then there is sure an high amount of stuff you can buy with it.

hardcore wishful thinking not possible -  isnt the largest stock berkshire hathway A stock at 167,000 a share?  If btc reaches that price there would be a massive sell flood that would crash the price back down to double digits or possibly low triple digits like it is now.  I think that we have a good shot of the price ceiling being between 200-2500 dollars at most, but if it were to still rise past that price then many many many more people would flood it to mine or mine alts to exchange for btc for fiat - that cycle will correct the price bubble. 

I don't mean to be the killjoy on this thread...I want it just as bad as you to hit a million dollars easily.  Thats like 10k per bitcent!  We would definitly be singing a different tune about all those fools (now geniuses) for buing up block eruptors to mine at 2btc a piece.

we all have a dream

I love this post. Please happen. 

Well if more than 5 people used LTC, we might see it go to a major exchange.

The following are the intervals between the dates for the 0.1 increments of log_10 (Mt. Gox price in USD), supplied by the OP:

time from 0.0 to 0.1:  6 days
time from 0.1 to 0.2:  4 days
time from 0.2 to 0.3:  2 days
time from 0.3 to 0.4:  215 days
time from 0.4 to 0.5:  16 days
time from 0.5 to 0.6:  10 days
time from 0.6 to 0.7:  143 days
time from 0.7 to 0.8:  34 days
time from 0.8 to 0.9:  27 days
time from 0.9 to 1.0:  48 days
time from 1.0 to 1.1:  93 days
time from 1.1 to 1.2:  48 days
time from 1.2 to 1.3:  13 days
time from 1.3 to 1.4:  10 days
time from 1.4 to 1.5:  15 days
time from 1.5 to 1.6:  6 days
time from 1.6 to 1.7:  13 days
time from 1.7 to 1.8:  5 days
time from 1.8 to 1.9:  108 days
time from 1.9 to 2.0:  19 days

minimum:  2 days
maximum:  215 days
mean:  41.75 days
median:  15.5 days

Interestingly, the short (single digit intervals) exist at both the low and high price ends, indicating that the growth is quite a bit faster than linear (if the short intervals clustered at the low end and the long intervals clustered at the high end that would indicate closer to linear growth).  Also, only three of the intervals are in the triple digits.  Based on the mean and median that I calculated, one could reasonably extrapolate using a month as the interval (in other words, a ten fold increase every ten months).  At that rate, we'd see:

08-13:  2.1
09-13:  2.2
10-13:  2.3
11-13:  2.4
12-13:  2.5
01-14:  2.6
02-14:  2.7
03-14:  2.8
04-14:  2.9
05-14:  2.9
06-14:  3.0 (1,000 USD!)
07-14:  3.1
08-14:  3.2
09-14:  3.3
10-14:  3.4
11-14:  3.5
12-14:  3.6
01-15:  3.7
02-15:  3.8
03-15:  3.9
04-15:  4.0 (10,000 USD!)
05-15:  4.1
06-15:  4.2
07-15:  4.3
08-15:  4.4
09-15:  4.5
10-15:  4.6
11-15:  4.7
12-15:  4.8
01-16:  4.9
02-16:  5.0 (100,000 USD!)
03-16:  5.1
04-16:  5.2
05-16:  5.3
06-16:  5.4
07-16:  5.5
08-16:  5.6
09-16:  5.7
10-16:  5.8
11-16:  5.9
12-16:  6.0 (1,000,000 USD!)

If you think that Bitcoin will largely replace fiat currencies, then it must reach at least one million USD.  With all of the horrible economic news (massive national debts, governments seizing funds from bank accounts, the serious weakening of all fiat currencies, etc.) that has been going around since pretty much the turn of the millennium, I would not be surprised if this pattern holds, or even turns out to be too conservative (e.g., the milestones happen sooner than projected here).  

10+

Things were boring for a while so I got out of the habit of updating.

Also, you're freaking me out with that low post count.

Interesting.  It would have been nice to buy at a dollar.  Oh well.   I guess it could still be early in the game though.

I like your style, dude.

+1

Yay!

Didn't see the milestone. "LTC surpasses BTC when it goes to Gox."

Waiting for that one.

Cheers

f(x)=10^x
x ε {0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, ... 6.0}

How can you draw that curve?

Yes. They are evenly-spaced intervals on an exponential curve.

Are these points on an exponential curve?

Everything older than a year is bold. No meaning other than that.

Thanks,
And why are the 2011 numbers bold?

The dates next to each milestone are the most recent date on which the Mt Gox weighted price for the day has never fallen below the milestone.

The reason I am marking R10 numbers is because it's a convenient way of measuring how quickly the price is traversing each order of magnitude. Humans do not intuitively understand exponential growth, so this is a way of linearizing into a form we do intuitively understand.

Sure, but this list is about the R10 series.

Billion dollar market cap is a pretty big milestone (that's between $91 and $92 currently)

Parity with ounce of silver, gram of gold, etc. are other milestones

Math

What are those "odd" milestones, anyway?
EUR 100s? RMB 1000s?
And wouldn't they have a floating value compared to USD as well?

LOL!  Or I would add, are you gonna push the list down, adding single digit prices at the top if it crash?

Are you gonna unstrike them when the price tanks? 

$0.10 2010-10-13
$0.13 2010-10-25
$0.16 2010-10-26
$0.20 2010-12-11
$0.25 2010-12-20
$0.32 2011-01-20
$0.40 2011-01-21
$0.50 2011-01-31
$0.63 2011-02-01
$0.79 2011-04-12
$1.00 2011-04-16
$1.26 2011-04-22
$1.58 2011-04-26
$2.00 2011-04-28
$2.51 2011-11-29
$3.16 2011-12-15
$3.98 2011-12-25
$5.01 2012-05-16
$6.31 2012-06-19
$7.94 2012-07-16
$10.00 2012-09-02
$12.59 2012-12-04
$15.85 2013-01-21
$19.95 2013-02-03
$25.12 2013-02-13
$31.62 2013-02-28
$39.81 2013-03-06
$50.12 2013-03-19
$63.10 2013-03-24
$79.43 2013-07-10
$100.00 2013-07-29
$125.89 2013-10-03
$158.49 2013-10-18
$199.53 2013-10-27
$251.19 2013-11-06
$316.23 2013-11-08
$398.11 2013-11-13
$501.19 2013-11-18
$630.96 2013-12-19
$794.33 2013-12-30
$1,000.00
$1,258.93
$1,584.89
$1,995.26
$2,511.89
$3,162.28
$3,981.07
$5,011.87
$6,309.57
$7,943.28
$10,000.00
$12,589.25
$15,848.93
$19,952.62
$25,118.86
$31,622.78
$39,810.72
$50,118.72
$63,095.73
$79,432.82
$100,000.00
$125,892.54
$158,489.32
$199,526.23
$251,188.64
$316,227.77
$398,107.17
$501,187.23
$630,957.34
$794,328.23
$1,000,000.00