Topic: Mining difficulty and BTC mined Question (Read 424 times)

That's not accurate, you can't pick 2 weeks out of 14 years and use that in any meaningful way for future business plans, there is no way he could "EASILY" get a 2:1 ratio, it only happens once in a blue a moon, making it far from "easily" doable.

The average fee % of block is nowhere above 2-3% counting from the first block mined up to the last one found while I type, take the previous 12 months prior to the BRC20 fomo for example, the highest daily average was the 9th of March 2023 with 5% average block fees, aside from that the standard is actually below 2-3%, yes, you would very rarely see some outliers here and there like what happened on the 8th of this month when fees were 42%, but even if you were to add those to the equation you will hardly get a ratio of 1.05:1, not even 1.1:1 , let alone 2:1.

IMO, It's very unlogical to assume that you will get anything more than the block subsidy reward itself, counting even 1% fees is risky, there is precisely nothing guaranteed in the mining reward aside from the block subsidy, it's safer to assume that it's all you will ever get.

Of course, we don't know the future, we could get to a point where fees go up and stay up forever, but that didn't happen for 14 years, and we have no idea when that is going to happen (if ever), so any calculation to roughly estimate future rewards should be based on block reward, halving, and difficulty, the fee rewards will hardly cover the pool's fees as it stands right now.

I would put a slightly different spin on the answer you got above. You aren't directly mining BTC, but rather you are mining blocks. The BTC reward for those blocks is variable. While in the original days, the "fixed" reward for those blocks dominated, so it was pretty much an algorithmic calculation. Recently the BTC reward that's included for for the "transactions" has become a more significant part of the overall BTC "inside" that block. The difficulty calculation directly relates to the number of blocks you will likely "mine", you could easily get a 2:1 ratio in terms of the BTC between blocks you mined this week, versus a month ago.

so if the network is at 35 watts a th and if it is 400eh

it is 14000 megawatts an hour

new york city is about 11000 megawatts a day

one reason the network will not grow as  much is gear does not improve like it used to do.

Ie a gpu back in the day did ⅓ of a gh at 170 watts or
1gh at 500 watts
or
1th at 500,000 watts

vs top of the line s19xp doing 1 th at 22 watts

so the gear is 22,000 x better than a gpu was in 2012.

that improvement is ending.

22,000 to 1 in 11 year 2012 to 2023

will be more like 2 or 3 to 1

2023 to 2034

Do I think power use goes up to 20,000 mega watts from 14,000 yes

but this mean I see diff doing say 3 x 1.5 = 4.5x over next 11 years is far more likely

network hash went from 21th to 380eh last 11 years.

that is around 1,500,000 to 1  hash rate growth for those 11 years.

we are not doing that next 11 years.

barring easy peasy cheap nuclear fusion being put in place world wide in the next 2 or 3 years. (that takes god or very nice aliens)

Why does it seem incorrect to you? the rewards will follow the difficulty (not 100% but that's a different topic), so if you assume a 10% increase in difficulty every month, then whatever your Excel sheet showed is correct.

The question is, why would you use 10% per month? the past 12 months had a total difficulty increase of 53.6%, that's more like 4.5% a month than 10%, also this can't be linear progress, just because it went from 1T to 50T from 2017 to 2023 which is an increase of 4900%, it doesn't mean that it will go from 50T to 2500T by 2029, that is not physically possible, not even remotely possible.

Now doing all these projections and estimations for what the difficulty might be in the future is pretty much useless, it's all directly connected to the price of Bitcoin which no code or equation on earth can predict, logically, it's now harder to make a 53% increase in difficulty than it was last year, cause a 50% from 100EH is only 50EH, but a 50% of 300EH is 150EH which is 3x more.

BUT (with all capital letters) it could still happen if BTC goes to 100k in the next few months, you can almost guarantee that a difficulty increase of 4900%  in the next 6 years is impossible, but you can't be certain that a 100% increase next year is not possible, as far as mining is concerned, what happens next year is much more important than what happens 6 years later, the short time frames are what matters, and predicting those with a good accurate is impossible, whatever gear you buy today will probably be dead or useless 3-4 years from now, so all the math you do today in respect to 10 years later is a waste of brain cells and computer resources.

But anyway, the way you do the math is correct, maybe not 100% accurate but correct.


 

I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out how to calculate future total mining using historical difficulty in my excel sheet. I assumed that if difficulty increases 10%, I would mine 10% less... But this does not seem to be correct, seems if I use average historical monthly difficulty increase to predict the future with a 1 to 1 ratio on bitcoin mined, it decreases too quickly. Please let me know how I should calculate this.


My assumption:

Last month I mined 1 BTC. This month difficulty has increased 10%. How many BTC will I mine this month?

Answer: 0.9 BTC