Topic: Mining Solo ~ QUESTION (Read 1433 times)

If you are solo-mining, the answer is unequivocally yes. Look at any pool's recent blocks to see how much variance there is in luck block to block, even with 10's or 100's PH/s of hashrate. Even if probability dictates that you should solve a block within 2500 days (again, making an unrealistic assumption that difficulty does not increase, which it will), if your effective "luck" was 50%, it would in fact have taken you double that timeframe. Just as possible would be your "luck" being 200% and solving the block within 1250 days. There is NO guarantee you will solve a block with almost any amount of hashrate, just better odds the more hashrate you have.

If you want your guaranteed income, mine in a pool. Solo mining comes strictly down to having an adequately good enough share for the current block given the current difficulty rating. The network doesn't care whether you are mining with a CPU, GPU, ASIC or you are antpool. Nor if you have 1 Hash per second or 100 PH/s, nor if you've ever solved a block or you solved the last one.  All that matters are submitted shares and difficulty rating.

I'll say it again because it bears importance, but past performance has zero impact on your current probability of solving a block. Just like roulette, like lotteries, like anything involving probability.

That is exactly what I am saying - there is no guarantee you will ever find a block, clearly the more hash you have and the longer you mine improves your chances but it is absolutely not guaranteed.

People who play the lottery contribute to the prize money, must they also be rewarded?

because i'm contributing to the network hashrate, so i must be rewarded for that, it's simple

you're telling me that a miner can supposedly mine forever and without getting his reward ever? basically he would turn in a full node

Why must you be?

Finding a block is a lottery, there is no overseer checking, "oh look that miner hasn't won for 2,500 days, it's their turn."

As Finksy says, winning or losing one day has no bearing at all on whether you win the next day - irrespective of difficulty, that merely adjusts your chances of winning that time.

this does not make sense, because i must be rewarded for my hash at some point if the diff stay the same, with the lottery it's not the case, you can keep playing for the rest of your life and there will be no winning at all

now that i think about it again, buying more hash than someone else, can be compared to someone buying more asic than the other

i found one PPC block with 141 gh  in compac sticks

It is absolutely like a lottery. With 200 GH/s today you have a 1 in 6,120,183 chance of solving every block, so 1 in 42,501 chance of solving a block each day.  Like a lottery, your odds don't improve based on past performance.  Even if it's been 2500 day (and pretending the difficulty is the same) you have no better chance of solving a block that day than you did on the first day.  Just like after playing the lottery for 50 years you don't have any better odds of winning than you do when you buy your first ticket.

If the net income you can expect to generate with 200 GH/s is not worthwhile enough for you but you want to continue participating in mining, go ahead and solo mine.  You could hit a block, although likelihood is you won't.

not really, it's not like the lottery, this is only true if the diff keep increasing, if the diff stay the same forever(just putting it on an ideal scenario) then it's not the same thing

becausee you know that one day you will find a block at 100%, for example a miner that do 0.01 a day, mean that it need as average 2500 days to find a block

the reason why this is not really true is because of the diff that don't remain the same

And it depends on what gear that 200 GH/s is coming from.  A lot your going to lose a decent amount of money per month if you run a full size miner and solo mine BTC.   If you win... sure huge win.  But most will never win at such low rate.

I personally use compacs and RPI.  I suggest others use something similiar, as electric costs are very tiny with this setup.  I can run it and not really lose a ton more then I spend on equipment.  And I ebay'ed some of my compacs long ago and got close to paying off majority of my remaining compacs.  So ended up being a good lotto setup for me.

Its like playing lotteries, there are possibilities to win the jackpot (or to find a block) but are very low. 200 ghs is very low hash for bitcoin mining.

I think also selling for a lot of users is now part of ROI.  With 8 cent's even I think you will be able to mine to a point, and at some time it will make more sense to sell and buy BTC vs mining with it.   

So I think trend of electricity getting less will continue, and selling will continue to get more important if not free/super cheap electricity.

I used to say ten cents would be a profit number.

That has not been true any more a miner now needs eight cents or less to stand a shot.

After the 1/2 I think miners will need four or five cents to stand a shot.

All depends on your electricity price  That makes or breaks ROI.  It's hard to say wait for bitfury as we don't know release date and price.  Without knowing that ... it's hard to say waiting will get you more ROI.

With having coming up... a lot is unknown.  Even difficulty is hard to speculate lately.  So I would say look now at mining if cheap electricity, and not wait.  And some depending on price of electricity I would say not  to mine at all.  Which is sad but mining everywhere is not really feasible anymore.

I have hit 4 blocks of peercoin

 1 was an orphan
1 was with 12 sidehack compac sticks
2 were with an avalon 6

each peercoin block is worth 33 USD  not like a btc block which is worth 10,000 usd

here is my advice do 1 day of btc each week and 6 days of ppc.

I solo mine btc at this site

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/yh-solockpoolorg-2-fee-solo-mining-usade-255-blocks-solved-763510

I solo mine ppc at this link  http://ppcoin.securepayment.cc/list.php

If you're looking for profit, buy WAIT for the new bitfury chips coming out. s7s and avalons will NEVER roi unless bitcoin jumps up to double price. Solomining is pretty fun, though, so with 200gh/s I advise you to solomine a low-value sha256 coin like peercoin. The difficulty of sha256 altcoins make them reasonably good for solomining, even though you probably won't roi or break even.

That's the perfect type of thing to play the lottery with.  You won't earn enough to matter once you count electricity usage in.  Might as well solo mine with it and see how it goes. 

According to this calculator, on average (at the current difficulty) you'd generate a block every 41134 days (112.7 years). You're probably better off putting that hashrate on a pool and earning small amounts every month from mining, it looks like you'd be able to make about 0.02 BTC per month (before power) pool mining bitcoin.

Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a hash rate of 200 GH/s what are my chances of generating a block? Or how long would it take me to find a block?