Topic: Mining Strategies? % to hodl or upgrade (Read 474 times)

i can tell you from my mistake and besides me someone else can learn too
i mined and grown my farm a lot.
i paid electricity and with profits i bought equipment for 3-4 years.
then came the down price from 1000+ usd to 220 and stayed there for 2 years.
i had to sell all my equipment and btc to pay electricity and other expenses and closed the project.
then after some years btc goes to 60.000 usd.



so lesson learned hodl the most you can with the anticipation it will rise and all rise sometime
the wall street golden boys from gold they go to oil
from oil to orange juice.
from orange juice to btc
btc then to another fiat
and then to another and another.

hodl and when the time comes you may become a whale









my stolen account was a legendary account: lowbander80
mining since 2013
1JgddX4AWtLxn9G3hMFzR99CVcZk2U66mQ

WOW now this is exactly what I was trying to figure out.

Their articles are full of information

Nice finding, I liked the research, especially because matches what I have always thought, mining outperforms holding in side-ways and bear markets, holding outperforms mining in a bull market, this is the general rule of course with some exceptions such as your power rate and or the price of the gears you buy/sell.

The study also proves another point which is the "sell daily", it has the most profitable outcome for the majority of the time, it also proves that the theory which states " you should mine at a loss and hodl bitcoin" will almost always make you lose money".

I think you might find Leo's research valuable.. https://www.aniccaresearch.tech/blog/the-intelligent-bitcoin-miner-part-i

Good luck then:

1- https://t.me/Hardwaremarketchannel

A channel with different verified trusted sellers

2- https://t.me/minerexpertsales

A Chinese reseller

3- https://t.me/hashexpert

Russian Based

4- https://t.me/kaboomracks

U.S based

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Please keep in mind, I am not endorsing transactions without escrow with any of the names mentioned above, these 4 groups, however, have been legit so far, and thus the prices you see there are real and accurate, unlike the other scam groups that make 99% of the telegram groups.

yeah any info would be great, I don't mind sifting through telegram channels.

I do, but it's all over the place, it's old orders from Bitmain and Chinese resellers, it takes a lot of efforts to manually skim through all the old data, I can give you the names of a few trusted telegrams channels that have been selling gears for years and then you will have to dig your way in, you will need to browse through the images and search for data manually, if for some reason they are missing a certain period I can check my Bitmain account to see if I happened to have ordered around that time.

For some periods, I have the prices stored in my brain, for others, I don't. I am sure the other gentlemen here will provide some valuable information, you just need to make up your mind on what values are you looking for, maybe the average quarterly/monthly price of a second-hand S9 since it's investion? cost per TH is very different from one gear to under so you either pick only 1 or you will need to make a few studies based on different gears because as we speak it costs about $17 for 1TH on a used S9, vs $100 for 1TH on brand new S19 pro and just about $80 for a used S19 pro.

Do you have that data? (historical mining gear prices) I would really love to see that, as like you said that is the main missing data I have and I am trying to model how gear is valued.

Not the same as any run before. I suspect 100k is too low to hope for.

When this began I thought 75-85k in the fall would be it.

It looks like it will clear 100k this spring. Countries are still printing money. The world is yet to come out of the covid fever it was in.

If you go back to 1921 to 1929 the roaring 20's the world whaled wit money right after the end of the Spanish flu.
If this is the pattern we are in we have years of bull run in front of us not months.
I this world moves way fast compared to 1921-1929 so maybe those 9 years of whaling are squeezed down to 3-5 years it brings us to over 500,000 a coin as a possible number.

Except for the references to 2017 and 2020, I'd swear that I saw very similar discussions when I started with BTC in July of 2013. The question right now is how long does the current Bull run for BTC price last, and what does it fall to when it's exhausted?

That's not exactly accurate, for one, gears prices are more and coin prices are almost identically "inflated", gear price lists are public and you can look it up, the second point which is more important is the fact that BTC is very liquid and you can instantly sell it on your way up, with mining you are going to be stuck with it when the market tanks, of course, this is all based on the assumption that we repeat 2017 and 2013 where we had a few months of a blow-off top.

If we were to assume that BTC is going to 100k by June, buying the coin now means you double your investment in 4 months, buying the gear now will nowhere be near that profit range, you pay at least $11,000 for S19 pro which makes about 1k monthly with free power so if the price does hit 100k it won't last for more than a month and thus your S19 pro will only make 2k in the last month of the bull cycle.

Theory based on a replica of 2018:

March profit: 1k    (avg 50k)
April   profit: 1.2k (avg 60k
May    profit: 1.8k (avg 90k)
June   profit:  3k   (avg 150k)

Total profit by end of June = $7000

Buying $11,000 worth of BTC instead gives you 0.22BTC, you sell that in May and that gives you almost double the investment, you sell in June you make 22k profit, of course you still have the miner value to add, but you also have bills to pay as well as difficulty increases which will reduce the profit mentioned above, and the miner could be dead by then anyway.

if you are really want to know how did mining vs hodling perform in the past, you can just ask us about mining gear prices of the past, this is the only piece of information that you may not find online, the rest ( difficulty, hashrate, and price) are all easy to find.

I am pretty sure buying BTC in mid-2017 was a better move than buying the gear, the same thing applies for 2013 and should also apply in 2020.

Buying the gear when they are expensive at the top, true, however you are also buying with coins that are even more overvalued, so just based on those arguments it isn't clear. This is why I'm trying to crunch through past data.

This is more like it, at least based on my own experience, when the mania of a bull market starts it's always better to hold the coin, buying the gear should have been done prior to that, mining works best against hodl when BTC is not doing much (sideways market) when holding the coin makes you no profit in BTC nor fiat, but mining generates passive BTC during that time.

Think about the guy who paid 0.5BTC to buy S19 pro a couple of months ago, he is far from making that 0.5BTC today, he will probably never get there, S19 pro gets 0.0022BTC a month and it's only going to go down, current ROI estimation is 22 months and it can't get any better but can get a lot worse.

There is so much logic involved, a simple way to look at it is by going back to the 2017 era, while the price did hit 20k it only lasted above 10k for two months (Dec 2017 - Jan 2018) so those who bought their mining gears based on 15k or 20k profitability were not in a great financial situation,  the super bull cycle is very short-lived, if bitcoin price goes to 100k by April, with coins in your hand you can sell for 100k, your miner, on the other hand, will only be able to utilize that for a few weeks or months before going back to the median price range, of course, this is based on the assumption that we all agree that the price won't go up forever and it will have 2-4 months peak before dipping 50% to stay there for 1-2 years, all previous cycles behaved the same.

I know many of you don't believe in charts but bear with me for a minute.



You can see that since BTC passed the 30$ level in 2013, it remained within a very neat channel of growth, what's interesting about it is the 3 different colored zones, the red zone represents the peak of each cycle, BTC has only stayed in that red zone for a bit less than 10% of the duration of its existence, it stayed in the yellow zone for 20% of the time, and was in the green lower zone for 70% of the time.

You may say this time is different, Elon musk is here, mastercard is going to process crypto, you can come up with all theories that say "this time is different", but on the scale of probability, chances are "this time is not different", which suggests that we are getting very close to the top before heading back to the red zone a lot faster than most people would expect.

Now back to mining, IMO you want to buy gears in the green area coming from yellow, that's when prices have fallen over 50-80%, grama is selling her gears for cheap on Ebay because she can't afford the bill and she thinks bitcoin is going to zero, the mining board of the forum is very quiet and no youtube adds of how to have a 2x hashrate on your miner.

When going out from the yellow entering the red, you want your assets to be as liquid as possible, you want to sell near the top, get rid of some of your miners for premium, sit back, relax and wait to accumulate more efficient gears at a much cheaper price a few months later.

Buying gear near the red zone means you paid for the gears based on the assumption that we will stay in the yellow-red for a very long period of time, it's the reason why people now pay incredibly high prices for mining gears that they will receive many months later.

Buying geas now means you are doing exactly what noobs are doing, go check Facebook, telegram, and the hardware market place in this forum, EVERYONE wants to buy mining gear, everyone wants to be rich, everyone thinks it's worth paying 12k for an S19 pro because it will be making them over $100 daily when bitcoin goes to 200k and stays there forever.

Hard to answer this.

If you don't have exact prices for your estimates.

I think your issue is the way you value miners . Here is a section which has prices

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=75.0. you can mine a lot of price for gear data.

I would try just the s-9 at various times and prices from 2016 to 2018.


Also you leave out your power cost.  I would try it with 3 ,6 ,9, 12 cent  for kwatts

Hello, I am trying to do in depth analysis using public data from 2016 on mining strategies. The main parameter here is how much profited coins to put towards upgrading the asics in any given month. Does anyone have any advice or data sources on this? I can share my results here in a post later. To summarize the public data used as input:

- btc price
- network difficulty
- network revenue
- available hardware efficiency (gh/j)

I'm finding estimating the hardware value at any given time to be difficult but I've been using a simple model of [ value = 12*(current revenue) ], also thought of as its roi on free electricity after a year.

My estimate from the past was that its better to hodl the coins in an uptrend and upgrade miners on a downtrend, but after looking at all the data and running simulations, I'm not really seeing that as clear.