Topic: monitoring social trends related to bitcoin is reliable? (Read 190 times)

Well said. In fact, social trends have proved to be something that can move the market. Specifically, with the trend that was associated to Elon Musk, brought about by his influence over the public. His personal statements have been made basis for many people to decide too dive into crypto, and such has also impacted the projects and coins have been mentioned by him which resulted into a trend. While it is beneficial to consider such trends and factors, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we should just rely solely on it.

There are times that it is, people are relying on the news and mostly it's coming from social media especially Twitter. It is where most of the "crypto experts" are come from.
They usually post their thoughts and speculations about the market there and we, people of the market are liking what we're reading there whether it's bearish stuff or bullish posts.

Sure, but we must still choose and avoid false news. Social media trends will circulate faster than by word of mouth. Many are not careful and it causes money loss. Maybe the news through social media includes Fundamental analysis although it would be better if it was combined with technical analysis. News, including this fundamental aspect, is used by many who have no sense of humanity to deceive.

At the same time there is no way to figure out how many people there are holding bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies for real, if they are just posting about it, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are reliable or even the people are reliable. There is one thing that we know about social media and it's not to rely on it especially for big market decisions. What you can monitor is :
Decisions
News
At the end of the day it's everyday that people find a website which promises many things but at the same time it does not really sit well with the people. Stay away from scams at the end of the day and make your decisions on your own.

New people are promoting their new websites with new account on this forum. This kinda sus because there are a lot of scam websites comes from this type of promotion. If they really build the website from the beginning and start to promote it, at least make a proper thread with nice words and packaging to make people trust if the project is serious, or paid a bounty manager to start a thread to make it more trustable.

Nice catch. Nobody realized this fact and everyone is following directions which OP wanted aka talking about his website which is just two days old. It's become a norm here, we saw posts from newbie whose answer can easily be found on Google but they post here and get so much attention. Irony.

Reliable for what, predicting market direction? Not when the correlation relationship is the other way round: Bitcoin markets is what influences social media trends, not vice versa. See what's trending on social media, and you know what's been doing well in crypto sectors, and what's the market been like for the past few weeks, months.

Even Musk tweets no longer carry the same weight they used to (and that's not a trend, but an event).

the issue with social trends is that its social trends

imagine it in steps.
imagine the social trend mindset is that a price goes up when there is positive news.

now, imagine the next layer.
when the price goes up people then sell for profit.

now the next layer.
the new social trend is everyone expects the price to go up when there is positive news. so people then deposit their coins ready to sell at profit. meaning the result of the social trend of positive news now results in a price dropping.

..
now the loop.
people then expect the price to drop on positive news because the social trend is everyone preps to sell on good news

this makes people go back to waiting to buy coin on good news.

..
and so the loop returns.

meaning when there is positive news. one group is on a buy cycle and another group is on a sell cycle.
eventually the price doesnt move as they both cancel each other out.

social trends dont last long and their perceived results change once everyone tries to take advantage of the trend. where the taking advantage becomes the new trend.

by the time you have worked out what the trend response might be.. its too late. your last in line to use it and its already moved in opposite direction.

in short..
if you are reacting to public knowledge.. the public knowledge has already reacted

The thread is long enough though. No one probably reported it as spam.

Social media trend is not going to be the metric to measure whether the price is going to go up or down. It's not even the case whether the coin is popular. Shib is very popular on social media which big exchanges are adding it to the extent that they change their meta description to BUY SHIB during its height but going over to different crypto forums, Shib is not the one they really talk about. But sure many of the traders who want the price pumped are riding to its waves.

That's obviously a website you own. Trends are gaining yet price is decreasing? Normal as it is, welcome to the bitcoin market. I don't have to visit your website because the trends are obvious at this point and they're on a down trend.
Looking at the news, when the price of bitcoin goes down, the advantage of those negative news are coming out and it's creating FUD to the market especially to the newbies. Somehow they're dependable and acting as a signal.

I don't know about a random new website, and I'm not sure the charts I see there are helpful, but I do think that monitoring social trends is important. If you merely focus on numbers (how many views, posts, engagements, mentions a certain crypto-related thing gets), it's not useful because what matters is the quality of these things (negative or positive, certain or doubtful sentiments). Bitcoin can be on everyone's mind both when it's losing value and gaining value rapidly. So what's important is to keep track of what's going on in the world that could potentially lead people to increase or decrease the demand for Bitcoin, and follow the prices along with it. If a big company announces they'll accept Bitcoin as payment or invest in Bitcoin, it can lead to increasing demand. If a fairly significant (in terms of crypto usage) country is working on restrictive crypto policies, it can have the opposite effect. And, apparently, if mining's disrupted, it has significant negative impact on the price.

Social trends is one of the most common ways of some other people who have good interest when it comes picking projects and yes when it comes the condition or situation of the market as well. But be aware who to trust because nowadays a lot people claiming they're experts about crypto such making analysis and etc but the truth some of them just want to regain subscribers or to get more attention. So be aware when choosing or where to follow to prevent fake information.

True, in analyzing we also cannot ignore other factors, such as social trends. Like it or not, we also have to keep up with the latest developments and news out there. Combining the two is one option, and it's a good one. We cannot deny that social trends have an influence on something.

The market demand and supply are the factors that will divert the price structure and social trends indirectly influence the btc prices.They cannot be measured that how much they could influence the prices but can change it to some extent like at this time the trend for NFT is in hype and that is boosting the crypto prices to some extent.But we can't completely rely on them and DYOR is key thing.

He/she is, obviously. His/her first three posts all contain links to the site he/she is promoting.

Not a nice way to market a new site.

Anyway, social trends cannot be made a basis for short-term movements of Bitcoin's price. The popularity of Bitcoin is clearly rising but the hourly, daily, weekly, and even monthly price of Bitcoin is still fluctuating.

Social trends cannot be directly equated with strong Bitcoin demand. It is simply suggesting awareness, although I believe this could be a bullish sign of Bitcoin's future provided this awareness will result to their attraction toward Bitcoin.

Yes caution is needed but I think there is for sure a connection between market price and people behaviours. I guess we just need to understand the right key to read that.

It's good to have it somewhere in your mind but I don't think it's something you should rely on. Also, it depends on source and interpretation. Social trends are to my opinion only the one component tightly related to economic one when we speak  about Bitcoin trends but also very dinamic and prone to change so when it's analyzed a certain amount of caution is needed.

Completely Agree

But we have to be careful how people is speaking about a coin, not only if they speak a lot about that.

While I also think that monitoring social trends is good, especially when one is seeking information, market trends should also be explored in the same time. I second, @noorman0, there are indeed distinctions on how social and market trends are approached in the collection and analyzation of their respective statistics. Nonetheless, considering trend under both sections could indeed provide reliable information about bitcoin and the crypto industry.

Yes you are right, I think that the increasing of subscribers is a good sign for the long term investments. I meant if we can get any signal from social trends to invest earlier.

The actual price varies according to many different factors, some built into the Bitcoin code itself. These 4 year bull/bear cycles are nothing new.

You've got bitcoin halving, companies acquiring and holding cryptos, alt coins, economies, etc all affecting price. Long term up yes, but in between can be wild.

Social trends simply summarize the statistics of something that is talked about a lot. It's not just about price increases, sometimes there are incidents happening around the world that are linked to other things (using tags) that actually have no effect or affected. You also have to be more careful with new coins, their social trend is just a pump and dump scheme.

Market trends are different from social trends, their statistics are generated using a different approach.

Are you trying to promote a website that is not well-known?

Those data might be fake and if you own this website you must post this in a service announcement or project development.


2days old.

if you check bitcoin trends on www.coindatatrend.com seems it is gaining but the price is decreasing.
How is it possible?