Topic: [MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements (Read 4519 times)

October results:

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Operational results
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Received 110 new propositions, of which accepted 44ⁱ, rejected 66. Total bets in worth 354.89123149 BTC.ⁱⁱ

Revenue : 3.85394132 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 2.34817188 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
fees from refunds: 0.04168410 BTC
advertising : 0 BTC
house bets won : 1.46408534^iv
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.0 BTC^v

Expenditure : 6.33763872 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.04867773 BTC^vi
house bets made : 4.40000000 BTC
rectification charge : 1.88896099 BTC

Profit : −2.4836974 BTC which will be carried over as a charge on the next month’s statement.

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Miscellaneous
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We now have stats for Bitbet, wherein you paste your address and a history pops out. For your convenience, the site’s performance (these are the bets made automatically by BitBet on all new bets accepted). Tl;dr : -0.01019974 BTC over 38.70500000 BTC in 581 bets.

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i. Much better success rate!

ii. Graphs :



iii. 234.81705021 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iv. 2.50000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

v. Once the instruments of punishment are laid bare on the table, learning becomes not only possible but quite swift.

vi. Seems it’s stabilized here.

This one seems to have come with an, albeit small, paid wager.

The rejection was relaxed a little recently, as it was perhaps excessive. Maybe that's what you're seeing?

September results:

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Operational results
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Received 111 new propositions, of which accepted 16, rejected 95. Total bets in worth 236.15664585 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 5.60240124 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.36095198 BTCⁱⁱ
fees from refunds: 0.00350000 BTC
advertising : 0 BTC
house bets won : 2.23794926ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.061 BTC

Expenditure : 1.74774867 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.04774867 BTC^iv
house bets made : 1.70000000 BTC

Profit : 3.85465257 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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Well at least BitBet did better than BTCtalk and Silk Road this month. I blame the Somalian.

Update : As pointed out by the astute FabianB, dividends actually paid for the month of August were in excess of the value actually owed. As a result the next month will carry a 1.88896099 BTC charge to compensate.

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i. Graphs :


ii. 336.09519837 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.90000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Tenfold increase month over month. Keep it coming!

August Results:

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Operational results
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Received 106 new propositions, of which accepted 29, rejected 77. Total bets in worth 470.61293880 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 5.51387082 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.07961846 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 2 BTC
house bets won : 0.43225236ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.002 BTC

Expenditure : 2.81535512 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.01535512 BTC^iv
house bets made : 2.80000000 BTC

Profit : 2.69851570 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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Total bets in worth 470.61293880 BTC this month vs total bets in worth 220.67110380 BTC last month. I guess I win. Revenue : 5.51387082 BTC this month vs Revenue : 7.77441249 BTC, last month. I guess I lose. The bet was ambiguous and therefore a scam!

See you all next month, except with more of everything.

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i. Graphs :


ii. 385.39947767 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.51000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Half last month’s. Apparently people really don’t want to make Bitcoin.

July Results:

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Operational results
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Received 72 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 53. Total bets in worth 220.67110380 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 7.77441249 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.85399584 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 2 BTC
house bets won : 1.84242184ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.07799481 BTC

Expenditure : 2.02110795 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00110795 BTC^iv
house bets made : 2.02000000 BTC

Profit : 5.75330454 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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I bet you next month’s income will surpass this month’s income.

i. Graphs :


ii. 385.39947767 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.51000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Half last month’s. Apparently people really don’t want to make Bitcoin.

June Results:

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Operational results
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Received 62 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 42. Total bets in worth 336.95451175 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 10.70484821 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 4.11394611 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3.75 BTC
house bets won : 2.84090210ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.000009 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.90280655 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00280655 BTC^v
house bets made : 1.90000000 BTC

Profit : 8.80204166 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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Need moar people proposing bets, need moar referrers, need moar, moar MOAR!

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i. Graphs :


ii. 411.39448879 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 3.53000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Zero next month ?

v. Wow, low.

Any comment on whether any money will be spent on advertising?

All submitted bets get a pool of no less than 0.1 BTC split between yes and no, courtesy of BitBet. The submitter gets the lower of these. So basically if the longshot wins the submitter makes w/e based on that, statistically should come out to about five bux per submitted bet which is obscenely generous already.

How much do people get for submitting bet proposals? Maybe increasing that would encourage a higher number of proposed bets? Hmm, maybe I should go submit some stuff ...

Spending a bit of money on advertising might be a good idea too.

May results:

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Operational results
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Received 68 new propositions, of which accepted 16 worth 422.56553095 BTC, rejected 52ⁱ.

Revenue : 6.70437137 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.74798271 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 0.1 BTC
house bets won : 2.85634306ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.0000456 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.62041977 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.02041977 BTC
house bets made : 1.60000000 BTC

Profit : 5.0839516 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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i. This is quite awful. One fifth of last month’s proposition volume, with acceptance rate going from one third to one quarter. People, wake up! There is exactly one way to make BTC on the strength of your wits rather than on the strength of your capital (be it mining gear or whatever). This is it.

Graphs :


ii. 374.79813025 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 4.03000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Nice to see people are learning. Well done.

April results:

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Operational results
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Received 306 new propositions, of which accepted 99 worth 1`427.12033496 BTC, rejected 207i.

Revenue : 52.41062758 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 18.89598891 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 4.70571706 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 25.80892161 BTC

Expenditure : 10.96703057 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.65703057 BTC
house bets made : 10.31000000 BTC

Profit : 41.44359701 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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April, slightly slower than March. See you all next month, in the Big Rock Candy Mountains.

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i. Up 214%, 33%, down 15%, up 300% respectively. Significant increase in propositions (especially unacceptable ones), consistent with BitBet reinforcing its market dominant position. Slight slowdown of new bets coming in. My guess would be that this is due to loads of BTC being redirected to speculative use this month. Graphs :



ii. 1,889.59852844 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 7.34000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 4.70571706 BTC above even.

It's not that different once you realize the intrade-style market will only exist if MMd, in which case it all boils down to the exact same thing.

We actually have a bet pool at the office as to how long it'll take the community for some clever entrepreneur to figure out the math behind this homology and actually release a BitBet backed intrade implementation (yes, it is spelled out in the linked comment but reading is hard etc).

It was totally different.

Bets were treated as contracts - with one created whenever a buyer and seller agreed on a price for it via the market.

If you've ever used Betfair for sports betting then it was far more like that - whilst Bitbet is more like a Tote type system.

On intrade if we agreed (via bidding on the open market) that a proposition was 3 times more likely to occur than not occur then the one backing that it would occur would pay $7.50 and the one saying that it would NOT occur would pay $2.50 - giving a total value to the contract of $10 paid to the winner when the bet was resolved.

Where you had multiple contracts on linked events (for example bets for and against different candidates in an election) then your total exposure was calculated and funds reserved to cover the maximum possible loss you could incur.

All contracts could be freely traded - with the market price reflecting overall sentiment about the shifting likelihood of the various results.

Now that I think about it, in trade may have worked in the same way. The only difference was that you could buy and sell bets after they were placed. So if the odds on your bet turning put to be a winner actually happened, you could sell your position on that bet to someone else before the action actually took place.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

This might actually be a good idea!


The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

That does not mean the site owner must support this. My own experience (from listing CoinBr assets on BitFunder) shown that people just don't read thoroughly and latch on to first number that looks like something they need. Then when they don't get expected result they scream I'm misleading them. So I added more ugly disclaimers and visually distinguished examples...and advise against adding such cruft to bitbet, having no such info and users must research first is better.

But that is what everybody is doing right now. When I go look at a bet, I of course have no way to measure what people will bet in the future, but I can make some sort of estimate on "If I bet X now and I win, I will get back Y". Since the formula is complicated, it makes it hard to figure out what Y would be, but before placing any bet I at least try to estimate Y. It would just be so much easier if there was a simple calculator on the site which would do that calculation for me, so I can decide if I want to make the bet or not. I know it is just an estimation that would be changed by any future bets, but it would be a better estimation than what I am doing in my head.

I see what you are saying. I guess I am just pointing out that most people would probably rather use a system where they know what the possible return on their bet is going to be when the bet is placed. For bitbet, this would mean overhauling the entire bet system. This could just be my own wrong opinion, but I'd like to see if others agree.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

InTrade was shut down, what? Wow, didn't see that coming. From http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21576148-flagship-prediction-market-faces-insolvency-bet-lynched:


Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.

But you should be able to at least have some sort of calculator which calculates how much you would win if you bet X btc now. There is a formula which the website uses, put it into a javascript or something and let the computer figure this out. There is no reason for people to have to guess how things are calculated and try to do such complicated math in their head. Put a big disclaimer that actual results could be changed by people betting in the future and you should be okay.

It is not possible to calculate possible win in advance, because the odds are changing every time a new bet is made - 50/50 bet can change to 10/90 when someone bets large sum on one side. To simplify it, first without considering weights, if that large bet was on your side and you win, you'll get only 1.1btc. If that bet was on opposite(losing) side, you'll get 9btc. When you add the weights into consideration, if you bet early, later bets influence your expected return less and less as time passes.

That's the beauty of it.

Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.

There was a scheduled downtime yesterday to take care of some server updates - unfortunately it took much longer than expected and we are still working on some unexpected problems that arisen. Another short downtime is possible, should be back to smooth sailing afterwards.

Also, what's up with the downtime in the past two days, every morning I try to got to bitbet, and it's down.

Not really. BitBet publishes the totals and is also fully blockchained and so transparent. Betsofbitco.in other than being run by a very questionable character is also very opaque (funny how that works).

Is there anywhere to compare the volume of bitbet and betsofbitcoin?

Betsofbitco.in is a very poor comparison for anything, unless it's fraud or something.

It's nice to see the reverse argument, last month there was a rash of "you should charge even less". I guess things balance out in time.

Yes the house bet a great feature, this was one of the reasons that made me move from betsofbitco.in to bitbet (fast resolution was the other reason). 

But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.

There's some confusion at work, let's dispel.

The expenditure house bets line lists the total house bets made during the month. This happens every time someone introduces a new bet, because the house finances it.

The revenue house bets line lists the total won for house bets made at any prior point just as long as the bets were settled this month. Because of this expenditure above simply contributes to the downline of further months: if someone makes a bet in March that expires in May then a .1 BTC charged by the house in March will perhaps turn up as revenue in May.

The statistical expectation is for the house to win ~50% of the bets it makes, by value. The remainder goes to pay the people putting bets in. This is by design, what they call a loss leader.

Referring to this here:

"iii. 7.77000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 5.39503980 BTC well above even."

Hmm?

You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).

That doesn't seem likely.

Nice increase of profit over the previous month. Hopefully we will continue to see the profit increase by 10x each month

March results:

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Operational results
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Received 143 new propositions, of which accepted 74 worth 1`646.64901255 BTC, rejected 69ⁱ.

Revenue : 58.1270556 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 26.49215232 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 5.39503980 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 23.23986348 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 7.9798355 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.74983555 BTC^v
house bets made : 7.23000000 BTC

Profit : 50.1472201 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

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Miscellaneous
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Nice month. Best of luck to all.

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i. Up 36%, 19%, 211%, 60% respectively. The huge increase in BTC inflow reflects in small part the longer month (31 days in March vs 28 days in February) and in large part successful marketing, competent management and increased market presence of BitBet.

Note that this figure does not include any of the ~1800 BTC part of the large March BFL bet. While many seem to believe that strengthening of BTC in fiat terms will bring a lowering of wagers the converse seems to be true here. Graph :



ii. 2,649.21492883 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 7.77000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 5.39503980 BTC well above even.

iv. As per the FAQ, BTC sent to expired addresses are not returned but distributed as dividends.

In rare cases this would represent a first bet sent to a betting address later than 72 hours after its creation (hasn’t happened yet). In most cases this represents BTC which was sent after the event, in an attempt to leech from the betting pool, only to have the bet closed before the transaction confirms (thus no refund).

For instance a good chunk of this month’s generous donation comes from somebody who tried to bet on BTC/USD rate being over 50 after it in fact crossed, and carefully not including a mining fee in his transaction (why pay the miners, right ?) which ensured his transaction came through about six hours after the bet was closed. His altruist generosity is muchly appreciated. On behalf of all the shareholders, plus the bettors you thought you were smarter than, plus the world in general : thank you.

v. Certainly the month’s largest percentual increase is the referrals paid sum, up 300% from last month. Very nice, keep it coming, we want to see 1k BTC+ on this line.

See here.

Seems you can make a winning bet on the site and lose money.....might want to fix that.

Thanks, crystal clear.

Simplified February Results:

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Operational results
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Received 105 new propositions, of which accepted 62 worth 528.52954038 BTC, rejected 43.

Revenue : 11.82595978 BTC, of which :
From bets resolved : 4.22038204 BTCⁱ
advertising : 3.00006932 BTC
house bets won : 4.60550842 BTCⁱⁱ

Expenditure : 6.3842806 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.18428060 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
house bets made : 6.20000000 BTC

Profit : 5.44167918 BTC to be distributed as dividend.

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Miscellaneous
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Since the BFL bet closed in March the dividend guidance is high for next month - just that bet alone would push profit up 300%.

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i. 422.03805998 BTC total pool resolved this month.
ii. 7.01000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house 4.60550842 net a little above even.
iii. Referral saturation even lower than last month. People, you’re leaving BTC on the table here.

Yup, quite the gap there.

Wow, S.BBET is doing great!

Hmm.

Ask: 0.00159900
Bid: 0.00050011
Volume for the past two days: 0

January Results:

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Operational results
*****************

Received 268 new propositions, of which accepted 206, rejected 62.

Revenue : 2`528.7212092 BTC, of which :
bets made : 2`504.32293854 BTC
advertising : 22.00021882 BTC
house bets won : 2.39805184 BTC

Expenditure : 2`521.92173716 BTC, of which :
propositions refunded : 65.27801000 BTC
bets refunded : 51.74250000 BTC
winners paid : 475.49327425 BTC
referrals paid : 1.95967070 BTC<sup>i</sup>
not yet resolved : 1`907.22828221 BTC
house bets made : 20.22000000 BTCⁱⁱ

Profit : 6.79947204 BTCⁱⁱⁱ

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Shareholders table
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Total shares : 10`000`000, of which :
Mircea Popescu 4`255`000 shares,
Matic Kočevar 4`100`711 shares.
Third parties 1`644`289 shares.^iv

Total dividend : 6.79947204 BTC.

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Miscellaneous
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Site only operational since January 5th. Overall pretty good for a first month I would say.

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i. Over 86 bets. Average bet 2.59 BTC, average referral payment 0.02278686 BTC (87.98%). Referral saturation 8.9% over bet count, 87.6% over bet value. Lot of work still to do, dear affiliates.
ii. Of which 5.01000000 BTC were resolved during the current month.
iii. Because bets made but not yet resolved are not counted this figure could be said to understate actual profit by as much as 80%.
iv. 1`210`500 shares still available as per original IPO terms.