TL;DR; Follow the steps in the list - place a bet - but I pay it for you (10mBTC)Many argue we should end the Gox topic. I disagree. If we stop now it will catch up with us anyway. Remember - MtGox is still in possesion of around 200,000 BTC. Should they get liquidated similar to the silk road coins it WILL BECOME A BIG TOPIC again. And more importantly: The status of around 600,000 coins is unclear. Since the blockchain does not forget anything, sooner or later someone will do a blockchain analysis and identify them.
Invariably, questions will arise again as to how to handle these coins. Coin validation/ fungibility of coins will become a topic again.
Last but not least a lot of people have lost a decent amount through MtGox. Even if this money/ these Bitcoins are lost they want to know what was going on!
The first question I want to ask to get closer to the answer is: "Was MtGox an inside job" I have started this prediction
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-an-inside-job.
I would like to start with collecting the opinion of users here and would ask you to to give me a percentage between 0% and 100% how likely you think this statement from the prediction is. To get the best numbers I will give a small incentive for your best guess and put 10mBTC on your word - and you will receive the winnings + the 10mBTC if you are correct.
To get concrete:
You can vote by creating a prediction. Is is simple - click on:
* go to the prediction page
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-an-inside-job/* click on "use the advanced form"
* choose the percentage you give to the event with the slider
* choose amount 10mBTC (not sure if it matters)
* choose first yes
* click on "Anonymous prediction"
* now choose a Bitcoin address where your winnings should be sent to (if you just your "vote" to count without taking the 10mBTC just use my address: 1axXYfetnxsx3Rii5xaJJHVvJzyRtpaRS)
* you now created a prediction ( like this
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1MNvUB47mq1E85Cu8dJJyqKXT8nmtsDtQk/)) and received a deposit address to place money on that prediction - save the link somewhere
* do the same with a "no" prediction (with same percentage)
* finally post your % together with the two links to the yes and the no prediction here
What I will do: I will look at the current "market price"/ (percentage) of the prediction. If yours is above (you think it is more likely then the market) I will fund your "yes" prediction with 10mBTC. Otherwise I fund the no prediction. Please note you will not get any advantage from choosing a different percentage from what you believe is true - in fact if you belive it is true in 20% of the cases but the market thinks it is only 10% betting on yes would be your better option since you would get 10 times (the corresponding odds to 10%) 10mBTC in 20% of the cases. Thus your expected value is 10mBTC*10 * 20% = 10%. If you would bet on yes you would only get 10mBTC * 1,11 * 80% = 8.88mBTC.
Thus even if you think "no" is more likely it is better to predict on "yes" as long as you think it is more likely than the market thinks it is.
Your Bitcointalk account should have more then 30 posts and not from 2014 - this is because I want votes from people following the topic for a longer time.
I will fund up to 50 votes. (500mBTC) When the first 50 votes have already built up a market price I hope a little bit of attention comes to this campaign. Now it would be interesting to see what people are willing to put their own money on. So basically what I will do: 24h after the first 500mBTC I will place a 250mBTC order on [yes](
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/19jyauVSrCCtUMVYzKRQUSFM7FZpqaqCoM/) that will accept ANY odds - thus it would be possible to bet against it with placing just 1mBTC. However, the market will match it with the best availabe offer. It will show at what level there will be a "price support". I do the same for "[no](
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1P3HQQPzNKZ6pA8MbURD7i4iMKrWFNc4NW/)". Will be fun!
Finally - let me know what you think of this? Any comments how to spend more BTC in a more efficient way? And last: I would really like to see others jumping in and giving their 10mBTC to the next one by funding their prediction to get this maket more liquid and thus acurate.
P.S: why I am doing this:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2654lm/i_am_willing_to_spend_10btc_to_find_out_what_is/
