Topic: MtGox finally going to distribute 137,000 BTC sometime next month (Read 441 times)

"Not your keys, not your coins". This statement is very popular but hearing about it and practicing it are different. Many educational resources about it but people mainly read and forget. They don't turn reading from practicing until losing money because lack of key ownership.

• Exchange hacks, scam exits are lessons from the past.
• Recent events should make everyone withdraw all their coins to their own wallets
• Wallet Basics
• Security checklist (Do's and Don'ts)

I dont think a Gox dump is a primary concern with Euro and YEN inflating Dollar value generally bringing weight against the BTC price theres larger issues then a temporary influx of liquidity.   Some will sell some wont, others will buy up the Gox coins knowing its changing nothing beyond the order books on that day.   Its only debatable as triggering weakness already existing, its a given BTC is challenged for a while yet slight positive today and future battles ahead.

Mt.Gox restricted withdrawals as I remember, it was like this for ages and didnt seem right to me to do that as it created an imbalance in the price, kinda inverse to now there was a false high again related to liquidity.   I didnt know what was going on but seemed wrong to me so I generally avoided the place and most people found out afterwards though a few had warned from  start of various upsets it was a ship taking on water.

Especially the price right now is so high so provably they might struggle to distribute all of the funds if they really have plan to do it because for sure they will got a problem for bloating value of bitcoin. But hopefully this scenario will happen because there are so many Mt.gox users wait this scene to happen for to so long. But for me I don't expect anything about it since for maybe I doubt they can or they have capabilities to return back the money.

It is understandable for them to try to give people some money back when it is 20k, I seriously doubt that they have all they want, they probably lacked some funds, and this drop helped them a lot. I even imagine that they may have sold a bit higher, and rebought at lower in order to pay more to people.

This is a weird situation, don't know how they are going to "finally" distribute it, I mean the method. They can't just send money back right away, most of it would be gone, there needs to be a better method, maybe some people use different wallets, would make sense. In any case, it's suspicious timing for sure, I agree with that, and I think there is something fishy going on.

For everybody claiming that people were dumb for keeping their bitcoins on an exchange. Consider the fact that hardware wallets weren’t released back then.

Only way to keep your crypto was using something like Electrum or Armory or do some paper wallet with cold storage. Most couldn’t do that because it was much more complex than a simple hardware wallet.

Of course! That's why they didn't do it last year. They had all the personal information and all the coins. If I'd get all that info and access to money, I'd be able to serve 10 people a day with ease and be done with all this distribution in 6 months tops, all alone. They have a group of people there and can't even do 1 person a day. It's obvious they were waiting for a technical bottom to appear and once analysts started predicting that we're near it with miner capitulaltion and 200W broken, they came out with the news that after all those years of holding they're finally going to start paying people back. I wonder how much money they made on the market claiming all the airdrops and forks with that BTC.

I did not follow the story, but did some amounts will be deducted, for example, as taxes or fees, or it will be afull refunded?
We have a similar case when Luna dumped about 80,000 bitcoins to the market (80,000 Bitcoins Dumped By Terra's LFG Quickly ) but the effect was immediate so if there was bad news it would have already happened.
So my guess is we'll see a rise.

There are many factors in play here. For instance, many of these victims are still here and have been holders since 2013. They had some of their money on Gox, but remained in the space after the collapse. They still have bitcoins that they held for years, or bought during this recent crash. They are aware of low prices and receiving additional bitcoins will not change anything in their attitude towards bitcoin.

Think about it, you had 10BTC in 2017 and held, then bitcoin hit 60k, you sold 5 BTC and bought back somewhere in the 40-20k range. You get another 10BTC from gox, but know that bitcoin is down 70% from its ATH. Maybe you'll sell 1BTC to celebrate, but those additional coins won't make you turn from a holder to a panic seller.

If I were to receive money from somewhere, I wouldn't dump it at these prices. I'd rather wait a year or 2 for us to hit at least 35k, which is a modest 50% of ATH, and get 50% more in fiat money, or wait it out until another halving and possibly get to sell for 100k.
What's the risk- reward ratio here? Worst case scenario you're risking a temporary dip to -80% from ATH, which is going to be some 12k USD. Best case scenario we'll have a new high next year and you'll score x4 your current money. Holding here makes much more sense.

The horrible part is that they are still manipulating the market. They are not even going to distribute that much all at once, they are going to "start" distributing it, meaning that they are not going to pay everyone right away and it will be just a smaller amount, over course of a long period, and would not make a big deal in the market because that type of deal will not make a big difference.

But, the reality is that we are getting lower more than what this deal would have made, just from the news of it. If it was distributed and sold, it wouldn't drop the price as much, but the news of it does. Because, it’s manipulation, mt.gox trustees are trying to manipulate it to go down, so they would spend less.

some of them may probably choose fiat to wait for price to dip. his is going to be funny because they might think the rest will eventually sell when they received the BTC.

it doesn't make sense to sell now while the price is very low already. but perhaps some users will sell while they are already in the brink and no job and its a huge profit because that was just $400/btc during that time. this is an unexpected money for some also because 8 years after they hold withdrawals, they've already lose hope but here we are.

I do not know how the victims will be compensated? But if they were to give them fiat for the bitcoin they owned, how would the price of bitcoin be calculated? Will it be calculated at the current price? Or at the market price in 2014 when the MtGox exchange closed? I don't know actually because if they were compensated at the 2014 price when the MtGox closed they wouldn't get much because the price at that time was around $400-800.

I don't think the trust will struggle to make OTC deals. Up to half of Coinbase's volume is institutional based on OTC deals (they have stated in the past), so it's not like there will be lack of demand. Such an increase in OTC supply can no doubt affect the spot market indirectly, with OTC prices dropping, and no doubt some whales will try and take advantage of this situation to the downside as per usual.

I just don't see the sort of spot market volatility that many are anticipating and we've seen recently from institutional liquidations that were done via spot market. The only coins to be released will be to those who don't plan on immediate selling. This is lining up to be a classic sell the rumour buy the news event imo. For institutions it'll likely mean remaining patient in order to get cheap OTC deals in the near future.

In any case, this is a old FUD. I hope the users finally get their coins back, and if they dump them, better to do it now, when we are in a bear market, than later, after the next halving. Then the market will get rid of this fear, that is around for 8 years already.

And may this be a lesson for the dumb people who let all their coins in exchanges, instead of adopting them in their own devices.

It's been almost seven years since this damned exchange has collapsed, Mt.Gox is the worst exchange I've ever seen in the crypto world, so, if Mt.Gox has recovered the hacked BTC, what percentage of the recovered funds will be returned to the victim.

However, if the Mt.Gox exchange actually rehabilitates and refunds stolen funds to victims, this will have a worrying impact on the price of Bitcoin going forward.
Speculation:
1. Those/victims who get compensation for Bitcoin returns by Mt.Gox, this will trigger the Bitcoin price to fall even more, due to massive Bitcoin selling pressure.
2. The effect of bankruptcy on Mt.Gox, is in sight, if they distribute directly to victims, given the current cost of Bitcoin prices.
3. Will create a new millionaire next month, if the victim is actually recovered by the Mt.Gox exchange.

Did Mt.Gox side, talk about the chances of how they plan to handle all that rehabilitation, did they plan strict rules for the victims, I'm a little worried, the value that has to be spent is billions of dollars.

You missed the fact that every victim can choose whether he wants Bitcoin, Bitcoin fork coin, or fiat - and if the trustee is going to sell Bitcoin to pay off fiat, he won't be so stupid as to bypass the OTC, although nothing about those genius Japanese people would surprise me. Someone wants to portray the whole thing far more negatively than it actually is, it is not about 1 million BTC, but just a little more than 140 000 BTC.

The market is likely to be flooded, the people who will get their money after all these years will not wait for the bull market to sell their bitcoin, they will most likely sell immediately at any price until they make sure their money is back to them, these huge quantities if they are sold and pumped into the market in a batch One is sure to get more dump to the market than it is now, so I hope these are sane (or some of them at least) and don't sell all at once. Frankly, the market is suffering mainly and we do not need another negative impact.

It's becoming a classic, when bitcoin falls and the market panics, that's when the news about MtGox starts coming out. It's funny how the bad news strategy doesn't change every time. Hopefully this is the final part of the bearish scenario and a reversal will happen soon.

Even selling bitcoin by these people in a downward bear market will bring them a good profit, because a lot of time has passed since MtGox closed. Most of these users would not have kept their BTC by now, but would have sold much sooner. So, when they get their btc back, it will be possible to say that this sad story with MtGox only benefited them despite the long wait and hassle.


That means another collapse in prices is possible next month.

We’ve gotten many emails over the last near decade about mtgox. This one didn’t specify anything that made me feel like a payout would take place next month, but we’ll see. I’ll believe it when I’ve got BTC in my wallet. Until then, it’s just another notification that they’re working on it. The amount of funds they’ve been paid to do something as simple as distribute what BTC they have left is a bit shocking to me. I see no reason they’ll do anything quickly, but do think this is the most interesting thing in Bitcoin at the moment.

Buy rumors sell facts. MTgox fud is here since the very first day i entered crypto - 2017. I guess we may see a dump below previous low (final leg down that everyone is expecting) and then a decent recovery made by front runners closing positions and from investors knowing that bitcoin fundamentials are better after this 8 year long case is over. From long term perspective ... its good we will finally have this fud over.

Yes some people will want to get paid in fiat however they will start to sell around the same time that other people get their BTC distributed. So they will be selling in a downward bear market and creating lots of sell pressure.

Unless they find some OTC deal with some large players and do it that way. Either way, when the coins start to move it will result in some panic. Whether the selling gets absorbed by large whales and quickly recovers will be something we need to wait for.

I sold a little every month during 2021 (inverted DCA), and kept tabs of it. When I calculated it, the medium selling price was near the top, because of some profit I had made with a altcoin. So if I re-buy what I sold for 10k I will have 6x the bitcoin I have sold, and if it goes to 60k again I will have 36x the fiat money I initially spend. So yes, it will be a good entry point, and I will not be surprised if the president of El Salvador sells his country just to buy it.

 

I'm wondering if we won't see the 10,000$ once again, whenever there is any news about this MtGox ghost we see the market falling like a rotten papaya when it falls from the tree. but on the positive side and that a drop to $10,000 would be a great golden opportunity to buy big and then sell at $60,000 would be 6X profit guaranteed. Will we see the president of El Salvador selling the whole country to buy bitcoin at 10,000$?


people need money and with the fear of the price going down even more they will sell soon and the price will go down, of course the price will recover later, but it will take time. unfortunately this news appeared at a time when the market is down and everyone is afraid and little optimism about the future

ognasty is probably drunk af somewhere after receiving that Email

So it was like a roller coaster hodl ride for the victims with extreme high(which would be now) and low points(thanks to mtgox?). Hopefully, they won't sell it in fear of losing them again lol

The price will crash if many people will sell a part from this volume in many exchanges at the same time. It will take a while before they start distribute that.

I read an article about this and that article thinks that most receivers will ask for the dollar and thinks that the Bitcoin market will possibly crash by $3B that time.  Funny how these media already made a conclusion about the BTC crash on the distribution day. But I don't think that it will happen because most of these receivers are once BTC holders.  So I think the majority of them will have it received in Bitcoin thus the market will not be affected by the said distribution. So I think it will be sideways in relation to the Mt. Gox fund distribution.

I think a dump is coming, those people have lost access to their coins for years and even if their coins are way more valuable than at that point in time they lost the ability to make even more fiat or bitcoin due to not having access to their coins, so I think that in principle many are going to get out of the market immediately and probably never come back, this means we should have an increase in the supply without an increase on the demand and this will get amplified by traders shorting the market, so when I think of all of that a new low seems possible.

i was not living in japan and i had some other Japanese person at that time to create the account for me..

What do you mean? Do you give your Mt Gox account credentials to other people and loss access on it?

This is indeed frustrating if that is the case because this incident happened almost a decade and finally customers will get the payment that they deserve. I'm curious why you will entrust your account details to online people despite knowing that Mt Gox owner is jailed nd there's a possibility for funds to recover.

Fuck i wish i didnt fuck up trusting online people with my account and saved the info to login properly. Some of those BTC belong to me :S

Yeah, even if btc have dumped heavily, those users are still in profit, more if they will hodl their bitcoin till we fully recovered to 69k but im sure they will, since they are one of those early supporters of btc and they believe on the techonology behind btc. It's only sad that someone can ruin the reputation of btc.

Literally a great news because it took them 8 years till they recovered their btc. That was a long wait but it was all worth it, since btc value have improved compared to its price long time ago. They can just assume that it was a blessing in disguise. It's okay if there are still some delays but what important is it's already confirmed that they will get their btc's and we are still in a bearish market right now. It would be a good timing if they receive their coins during the bull run.

Mt Gox published a letter few days ago about distribution date to all eligible victims. I read this news when someone on our telegram GC brought this up and start the discussion on what's gonna happened to the price of Bitcoin after they start liquidating there Bitcoins on exchange. I'm not sure about the date provided by the OP but Mt Gox is really closed to repayment.

You read the article here: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2022/07/07/mt-gox-prepares-creditors/

So, 8 years, two-thirds of Bitcoin's age, is what it takes to get a part of your coins back from a centralized exchange.
Think about that when you don't keep your coins in a wallet under your own control!

If there is an option to pay in fiat, I believe that many will choose it because it is easier for them, or they simply do not want to have anything to do with Bitcoin. I completely understand these people considering how much time has passed and that each of them wants to finish it as soon as possible.

If it finally happens that the payouts start, I don't think it can have too much of an impact on the price considering that the payouts will probably go gradually, that a good part will be paid out in fiat, and that some will certainly keep what they get in Bitcoin. No matter how it ends, the whole case is, from a time perspective, a great shame for the Japanese system, which has proven to be quite incapable of solving it within a reasonable time frame.

Are you a victim of Mt.Gox and got emailed of this distribution? I have googled about Mt.Gox recent news and didn't find any news regarding this. I hope it's just not only a promise and they will distribute it ASAP, it's already 8 years too.

If MtGox can distribute with Bitcoin amount, not in USD amount, then we will see many new people become a millionaire overnight and yeah, they will learn about holding. I'm expecting Bitcoin would only dump for short term since they will spent some of their Bitcoin to buy what they like and hold most of his coins to reach new ATH.

It is good news for investors who are able to get their bitcoins back after all these years.
Although MtGox has finally returned bitcoins to investors, not all centralized exchanges will be able to do the same. Therefore, it is advisable that you do not place all of your money on centralized exchanges, not your key will not be your money. Anything can happen so always be careful with our property.

Technically not all creditors will be receiving bitcoin it's worth noting..

As far I understand they have the option of cash, btc or bch (<= lol). This is probably in an attempt to reduce market volatility, with the trust offering to sell their coins for them. I imagine this would be done OTC based on the amounts. Although this still is an increase of 150K coins, it seems unlikely that it will be this much pressure on the spot market. It's potentially a good opportunity for instiutions to get cheap coins OTC.


Sell the rumour buy the news comes to mind. Meaning by the time coins are distributed to creditors, the dump will be over. Logically, it'd make no sense for creditors who want to take profits to do so themselves, via spot market, when they have the option of the trust doing it for them. Especially if the trust is able to cash out their coins prior to others getting their BTC. Maybe only 10-50K coins will be distributed in total?


Probably start dumping from here if the news causes panic in the market. Either way, direction will now likely be determined by OTC markets based on distribution plan, rather than spot market.


Not sure this is that relevant to BTC price, but rather a factor for ETH getting hit harder than BTC.

I believe that after so long of giving that money away, most people are going to sell the coins. Firstly because they have an extremely high return compared to the original acquisition cost, secondly because they have waited a long time, and finally because in the bear market we are in, there is not much incentive to hold. If they had received it last year, with the price rising, and when it was beating ath after ath, maybe more than one would have been tempted to HODL but now I don't think so.

However, I think the smartest thing to do would be not to sell everything. If you get 5 Bitcoins, you sell 2 or 3 and you get your money back after waiting for so long, you make a profit and you stay invested.

MtGox had no KYC but it doesn’t matter because they are not distributing the coins.

The coins are being distributed by the trustee and pretty much anyone who wants their coins back needed to KYC long time ago when the proceedings started.

When Bitcoin rallied in 2017, they finally became solvent and they had enough to pay back balances in USD. However now they got 137K BTC and users will get that also. People KYC long time ago if they had large balances.

Keep in mind BTC topped at $1000 back then and many had coins in the $100-200 range.

Good news for the users who can receive BTC. Will this dump the price or not?
137K BTC is big. Its not being auctioned to the richest people on earth. But It really will be interesting if this will happen this year because they will probably ask the KYC of the users which will delay this process for as long as it takes.

Four digits, here we come. I'm going to fill the shopping cart.

Its obvious liquidity.  Any amount from back then is a big amount now, people have bills some people will have zero choice but to sell.   A few able may sell then buy later not many as people are typically bad at reentering I think and a couple it will mean nothing as they have meanwhile been trading and holding larger armounts so they can hold regardless.
   If everyone gets their pay out at the same exact time it would blip down perhaps but I think the market has a larger trend then the latest mtgox news, every year since its become less important surely.

Honestly I agree. Its going to be a lot of "burned" coins. Sure there could be some dump, but it will mainly be because of all the people who will sell to avoid a dump, causing the dump themselves funnily enough. This is why I believe that nobody should do something before it happens, because it may not happen at all, and you hurt the market for nothing. This will be mainly maybe like %30-40 of the people still having access to their wallets, and maybe nearly 100k bitcoins being gone forever. Thats a good thing for us, more bitcoins gone from the market circulation and it will allow bitcoin to gain value overtime, not right away probably, but over long term.

No you don’t understand. The coins are not at MtGox.
Some trustee has them. And the people who lost their BTC back in 2014 filed claims for their lost bitcoins.

They will get them most likely sent to a new BTC wallet and those who want USD will have it sold by the trustee and most likely would be sent by bank transfer.

But I don't think everyone has still access to their wallets.
Because who would have thought this situation will reach up to this point where they will receive their lost coins?
I guess, a lot already forgot their credentials or had no more access to their computers used for this site.
Some also re-format their computers because this is a long time in the making.
Lucky for those who keep all their details all these years.

So the creditors finally got an email about getting their bitcoins since the 2014 bankruptcy. This is around $3 billion dollars.

Everyone is watching their wallet and many will start to front run the dumping when it’s actually redistributed.

What does everyone think will happen? Dump? Pump? Sideways?

It’s also funny how ETH merge is around the same time. Late August. Should be a busy month.