Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis | Bitcointalksearch.org

abacus

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 10, 2014, 10:30:27 AM

The unequivocal answer is: there is no unequivocal answer.

Pretty clear, I got it.

Quote from: oda.krell on June 10, 2014, 10:30:27 AM

The limited history we have implies that, whenever 1w turned positive, the worst of the previous bear market was over.
At the same time, maybe due to the lingering effects of the previous bear markets (like in 2011/2012), the weekly MACD crossover more than once was followed by another price drop.
Assuming historic performance holds again, then, if you don't mind possibly holding through a month of further stagnation, possibly mild decline, then it is probably not a bad signal to get in.

Thanks for explain it further, let's see how it turns out.
In the meanwhile, I would speculate, based on pure nothing, that we'll see the first 1w green light in the next 24-48 hours.

oda.krell

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Quote from: abacus on June 10, 2014, 10:26:10 AM

Well, I think that your remarks make a lot of sense but, as you wrote, they mostly refer to a trader point of view (I hope I'm not misunderstanding your words).

At the end of day, what I'm trying to understand is only if we can really consider the bear market ended (for medium and maybe long term).

To be more precise, I wonder if a stable green 1W MACD could be seen as a clear and unequivocal signal of reversal trend. I would say yes, but I'm not a TA expert, I'm just reading something about it and playing with charts.

But there is this consideration from you that is pretty reassuring:

Quote

whenever the 1w MACD turned green there was never a drastic and lasting price decline.

The unequivocal answer is: there is no unequivocal answer.

The limited history we have implies that, whenever 1w turned positive, the worst of the previous bear market was over.

At the same time, maybe due to the lingering effects of the previous bear markets (like in 2011/2012), the weekly MACD crossover more than once was followed by another price drop.

Assuming historic performance holds again, then, if you don't mind possibly holding through a month of further stagnation, possibly mild decline, then it is probably not a bad signal to get in.

abacus

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 10, 2014, 09:00:36 AM

Just go back to September/October last year. Turned green, then red again for 2 weeks. Similar in December 2012.

That said, in the entire history of Bitcoin trading I know (which means including mtgox data), whenever the 1w MACD turned green there was never a drastic and lasting price decline.

The "worst" signal I can find is in the last December week in 2011. MACD turns green, if you wouldn't have waited for a period close you might have bought at slightly below $5. The rally continued to $7, then price fell sharply. Took another ~2 months before $5 was reached again.

Sounds like a fantastic opportunity in retrospect, of course (buying coins at $5), but from a trader's perspective, that wasn't a very good signal, unless you got out at the $7 peak.

Well, I think that your remarks make a lot of sense but, as you wrote, they mostly refer to a trader point of view (I hope I'm not misunderstanding your words).

At the end of day, what I'm trying to understand is only if we can really consider the bear market ended (for medium and maybe long term).

To be more precise, I wonder if a stable green 1W MACD could be seen as a clear and unequivocal signal of reversal trend. I would say yes, but I'm not a TA expert, I'm just reading something about it and playing with charts.

But there is this consideration from you that is pretty reassuring:

Quote

whenever the 1w MACD turned green there was never a drastic and lasting price decline.

oda.krell

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Quote from: abacus on June 10, 2014, 07:51:29 AM

One entire month from the last update in this thread, but it looks like 1W green MACD is using more time than expected.

BTW it's a very thin red strip now...
Do you know if it ever turned GREEN for some short moments?

Just go back to September/October last year. Turned green, then red again for 2 weeks. Similar in December 2012.

That said, in the entire history of Bitcoin trading I know (which means including mtgox data), whenever the 1w MACD turned green there was never a drastic and lasting price decline.

The "worst" signal I can find is in the last December week in 2011. MACD turns green, if you wouldn't have waited for a period close you might have bought at slightly below $5. The rally continued to $7, then price fell sharply. Took another ~2 months before $5 was reached again.

Sounds like a fantastic opportunity in retrospect, of course (buying coins at $5), but from a trader's perspective, that wasn't a very good signal, unless you got out at the $7 peak.

abacus

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One entire month from the last update in this thread, but it looks like 1W green MACD is using more time than expected.

BTW it's a very thin red strip now...
Do you know if it ever turned GREEN for some short moments?

Raystonn

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Quote from: kireinaha on May 07, 2014, 10:54:43 AM

Quote from: Raystonn on May 07, 2014, 10:44:30 AM

For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun.

It hasn't closed yet. We were showing green a couple weeks ago, but it switched back over to red following some more China FUD.

Green locked in. First time since December. Now on to the 1-week MACD!

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: Wilhelm on May 09, 2014, 06:36:58 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 09, 2014, 09:35:03 AM

Can you guys explain the MACD and what it all means (sorry noob here Sad

)

Noob explanation in a few lines.

MACD is a method of predicting trend changes. MACD is probably the most popular TA indicator.

It's based on the difference between EMAs. An EMA is an exponential moving average.
You have a slow EMA (longer period), and a fast EMA (smaller period).
Using the differences between EMAs and some magic you can calculate trend changes.

MACD can be looked at, in minute,hour,year, etc. intervals. You should match the MACD with your trading style. Daytraders will use smaller intervals than people doing long-term investing.

As seen in the post of abacus trend can be positive or negative based on the chosen interval.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD

Thanks appreciated.

Wilhelm

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Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 09, 2014, 09:35:03 AM

Can you guys explain the MACD and what it all means (sorry noob here Sad

)

Noob explanation in a few lines.

MACD is a method of predicting trend changes. MACD is probably the most popular TA indicator.

It's based on the difference between EMAs. An EMA is an exponential moving average.
You have a slow EMA (longer period), and a fast EMA (smaller period).
Using the differences between EMAs and some magic you can calculate trend changes.

MACD can be looked at, in minute,hour,year, etc. intervals. You should match the MACD with your trading style. Daytraders will use smaller intervals than people doing long-term investing.

As seen in the post of abacus trend can be positive or negative based on the chosen interval.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD

bitcoinsrus

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Can you guys explain the MACD and what it all means (sorry noob here Sad

)

abacus

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Also MACD on 1-Day chart turned UP and the 3-Day MACD is still green.
Seems like upward forces for the medium term are consolidating, right?

Little update in Technicolor™:
MACD on 1-Week Chart
MACD on 3-Day Chart
MACD on 1-Day Chart
MACD on 12-Hour Chart
MACD on 6-Hour Chart
MACD on 4-Hour Chart
MACD on 2-Hour Chart
MACD on 1-Hour Chart
MACD on 30-Minute Chart
MACD on 15-Minute Chart
MACD on 5-Minute Chart
MACD on 3-Minute Chart
MACD on 1-Minute Chart

abacus

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I noticed that MACD on the 1-Day chart is still DOWN; it also should be UP soon if the (edit: last small upward) trend continue, right?
Don't know why, but considering the data in your OP, I thought it was going to be somehow sequential, i.e. MACD on 3-Day chart can turn GREEN only after 1-Day MACD has.

But that probably just states how I'm a newbie in TA...

Torque

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Yeah, possibly positive sign. So queue the coming Chinese FUD first, right? LOL Grin

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: Raystonn on May 07, 2014, 10:44:30 AM

For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun.

Well, if you're right, all aboard the rocket ship. Next stop: DA MOON!

Raystonn

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We will watch. The end of that candle is tomorrow night. But breaching into green territory twice is still a good indicator of an end to the bear run. It is increasingly weak.

kireinaha

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Quote from: Raystonn on May 07, 2014, 10:44:30 AM

For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun.

It hasn't closed yet. We were showing green a couple weeks ago, but it switched back over to red following some more China FUD.

Raystonn

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For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun.

Raystonn

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Quote from: p0peji on May 06, 2014, 10:16:56 PM

Please dont post about TA if you dont know what you are doing. Lips sealed

If you have disagreement with something I'm stating, please let me know. I've been using TA on securities, options, and futures for the last 20 years now.

p0peji

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Please dont post about TA if you dont know what you are doing. Lips sealed

Raystonn

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Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 06:33:27 PM

I like to plot all of the MACDs and EMAs on a chart and judge the viability of a short term trade by how close the EMAs of the longer terms are. If the longer term MACDs are against me and their EMAs are too close, then the trade is too risky.

Based on the 12H, 1D, and 3D charts, I see the max that the breakout could possibly go is $440-$450, and right now the price is at $430. A possible $10-$20 trade on weak momentum and low volume where I'll have to make sure to get out before I get clobbered by the next $60 down candle is not worth it.

When you say all the MACDs and EMAs what exactly do you mean? Just different lengths in the same timeframe? That's not what I'm doing here.

Raystonn

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Quote from: Raystonn on May 06, 2014, 06:28:49 PM

MACD trend data from Bitcoinwisdom:

MACD on 1-Week Chart: Down
MACD on 3-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 1-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 12-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 6-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 4-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 2-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 30-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 15-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 5-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 3-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Minute Chart: Up

It's looking bullish for short-term traders and bearish for medium-term traders. Data for long-term traders is not available on Bitcoinwisdom, as it doesn't support a 1-month Chart. But you can eyeball it and see the long-term monthly trend is up.

The 6-Hour chart is very close to hitting Up.

The 6-Hour chart's MACD went green. We should wait for the candle to complete for confirmation. Then it will be Up.

TERA

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I like to plot all of the MACDs and EMAs on a chart and judge the viability of a short term trade by how close the EMAs of the longer terms are. If the longer term MACDs are against me and their EMAs are too close, then the trade is too risky.

Based on the 12H, 1D, and 3D charts, I see the max that the breakout could possibly go is $440-$450, and right now the price is at $430. A possible $10-$20 trade on weak momentum and low volume where I'll have to make sure to get out before I get clobbered by the next $60 down candle is not worth it.

kireinaha

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Raystonn

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Bitstamp BTC/USD MACD trend data from Bitcoinwisdom:

MACD on 1-Week Chart: Down
MACD on 3-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 1-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 12-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 6-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 4-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 2-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 30-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 15-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 5-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 3-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Minute Chart: Up

It's looking bullish for short-term traders and bearish for medium-term traders. Data for long-term traders is not available on Bitcoinwisdom, as it doesn't support a 1-month Chart. But you can eyeball it and see the long-term monthly trend is up.

The 6-Hour chart is very close to hitting Up.

Topic: Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis (Read 2129 times)