A calculated risk at an HYIP is a game you can't win in the long run. They are by their very nature unpredictable and take a huge house edge effectively since they can run at any time.
This is why it is a bad idea to avoid ponzis and HYIPs. They are not fair, and it is difficult/impossible to predict as to when the owner of the site is going to run away with the money "invested" with them. It is also difficult to determine if a ponzi/HYIP is going to last a long as possible (until it can no longer pay investors) or if the site owner is going to try to build up the money "invested" with them to a certain amount and then run away.
