Topic: Murphy's Law and Bitcoin: My Point of View (Read 104 times)

"Murphy" was some guy who strapped himself to a chair on rails with a rocket engine behind. I'm not even kidding.

Bitcoin is not failing just because a State is abusing their own people. OP is talking about police seizing smartphones, for example. This has nothing to do with Bitcoin. You don't have to have a Bitcoin wallet in your smartphone especially if you live in that kind of place and know that could happen.

There are about 15 countries that declared Bitcoin illegal. Bitcoin was actually designed expecting State resistance, and it will work fine with or without their acceptance. The difference is the people need to act smarter in the more oppressed countries.

Your issue is with the State there, and Bitcoin is only a tool that can help you a little to get independence from it. For example, you could flee to another country and they would be unable to confiscate your funds. But you have to be smart. Corrupt authorities will use any excuse for extortion regardless.

"Murphy's Law" is not an actual law, it doesnt have any scientific basis or merit like
for example "ohms law" which is measurable and proven.

Murphy's Law is something we use in my country as a comment or saying after a
negative event, particularly a series of negative events.


Correct, its important that this rule ^{prohibiting something does not serve to put an end to it}
yet again is being challenged by Bitcoin and people seizing a small amount
of economic independence for themselves and bypassing failed or corrupt banking
system or governmental decisions.

Its a meme bro. This law is a meme and always was:

"
Academic and scientific views
According to Richard Dawkins, so-called laws like Murphy's law and Sod's law are nonsense because they require inanimate objects to have desires of their own, or else to react according to one's own desires. Dawkins points out that a certain class of events may occur all the time, but are only noticed when they become a nuisance. He gives as an example aircraft noise interfering with filming. Aircraft are in the sky all the time, but are only taken note of when they cause a problem. This is a form of confirmation bias whereby the investigator seeks out evidence to confirm his already formed ideas, but does not look for evidence that contradicts them.[18]

Similarly, David Hand, emeritus professor of mathematics and senior research investigator at Imperial College London, points out that the law of truly large numbers should lead one to expect the kind of events predicted by Murphy's law to occur occasionally. Selection bias will ensure that those ones are remembered and the many times Murphy's law was not true are forgotten.[19]

There have been persistent references to Murphy's law associating it with the laws of thermodynamics from early on (see the quotation from Anne Roe's book above).[13] In particular, Murphy's law is often cited as a form of the second law of thermodynamics (the law of entropy) because both are predicting a tendency to a more disorganised state.[20] Atanu Chatterjee investigated this idea by formally stating Murphy's law in mathematical terms. Chatterjee found that Murphy's law so stated could be disproved using the principle of least action.[21]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_law

Back to your story. Its sad to hear that but I think we will see more and more of this in the future. Almost the entire world is struggling with high inflation and the Russian war is not helping at all. In some countries it can be enough to cause hyperinflation and punish actions (jail for crypt, jail for gold) will be on regular basis. And people will not protest because most will be glad that the trickster has been caught. Tricksters that are not losing when everyone else is losing. Adam Fergusson in his book "When Money Dies" (germany during hiperinflation after WW1) - cites a newspaper article in which the editor complains about low penalties for people who traded ... flour ... illegally. Because after being released from prison, they go back to "crime". Police patrols caught people and ordered them to show their wallets to seize all foreign currencies.
In 1933 we had US gold confiscation where you were forced to give back your gold or you go to jail.

If I was you I would do anything I can to leave your country but its possible that country you will escape to will introduce similar laws in next few years.

Murphy's Law is oftentimes misinterpreted, especially with the focusing on things that can go wrong. I mean, anything that happens can go in any direction, and sometimes that direction is not the right direction for something or someone else, so the appropriate saying should be 'anything that can, will'. But what the saying correctly describes is the natural fluctuation and vawe-like motion of everything in life. Bitcoin is not immune to those fluctuations (as seen with its cycles). And as the saying goes 'everything is connected to everything else', so one action will result in a reaction (state repression and corruption leads to more younger people using crypto and therefore results in BTCs upward movement).

I believe that Murphy's law has nothing to do with this. I simply believe that what you are telling us is yet another example of how prohibiting something does not serve to put an end to it. Throughout history it has happened with many other issues, such as prostitution, drugs, alleged witchcraft, etc.

Apart from what you say, I think this forum is also a good example of how little the measures taken by the politicians of your country have served to get what they want, because you are a large Nigerian community very active in this forum.

I am sad learning of the dire situation in your country for people who are into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency...this is a big example of how the power of the state can instead be harming the people whom they sworn to protect and serve. Glad to see that here in my own country, we are still free to do whatever we want with cryptocurrency as long as we are not doing things illegal - and for now there is no law that says getting involved with crypto is illegal. Many governments look at Bitcoin as a big threat to their own dominance and something that can destroy the existing financial system so they are looking at it like a terrorist that should be stopped at all cost. I am wishing that one day those people in the government of your country would realize that in the real sense Bitcoin is a big opportunity that their people should not miss.

Murphy's law states that “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”  In my own opinion, I do believe that this law does not mean that something bad will happen. It simply means that whatever can happen will happen. I will attempt to make a brief analogy of this law and bitcoin using my home country as a case study below.

In my home country, as soon as bitcoin started to gain prominence and free millennials from generational poverty, the government ordered financial institutions to stop transacting business with individual and business users of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.  Secondly, the violations of the human rights of millennials in bitcoin by officers of the Police Force especially those that involve torture, extrajudicial killings, and extortion skyrocketed. For example, at some Police checkpoints, you would often find a Police officer checking the Phones of young boys. They are looking for chats or transactions that references Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. If found, these boys will be labeled fraudsters and extorted. And if they are uncooperative, or protest they might be killed.

However, bitcoin continues to thrive despite the clampdown. For instance
1) Millennials have turned to P2P exchanges for their cryptocurrency transactions. These transactions rose by 16% on an annual basis .

2) There has been an increase in the use of crypto for inter-border transfer.

3)Millennials are saving their money in bitcoin due to the fall in the country's currency.

So Like I said earlier Murphy's law doesn't mean bad things will happen. It simply means that whatever can happen will happen.  
What do you think? I'd like to get your viewpoint.

Source
https://nairametrics.com/2022/02/06/nigerias-bitcoin-p2p-trading-surge-by-16-since-cbn-enforced-crypto-ban/
https://www.reuters.com/business/crypto-trading-thrives-nigeria-despite-official-disapproval-2021-10-12/