Topic: MY DAILY BITCOIN SPECULATIONS AND VIEWS (Read 890 times)

Bitcoin was deceptive yesterday, it bought back due to the weakness of the USDX and closed positive for the day with a bullish pin bar on the 1D chart. At this point, I'm neutral on the market, it could go either side today as it moves from peak to bottom and from the bottom to peak in the last two days. More surprises could be seen, yet it is good to know that more barriers are at the upper ends at 19930.46 and 20386.48 (Wednesday high). The market might be unattractive to buyers below this level, which might force it down to at least 18142.00. While a break above them will confirm a bullish trend that might hit the current 1D trendline resistance at 21003.75.

Nonetheless, the MACD and Stochastic oscillator remains bearish in signals.

I must say that Bitcoin disappointed me yesterday, the long-awaited 19930.46 was broken only for it to slip back below it to cause a false breakout. This is not unusual in the market, nevertheless, has dropped it back to a bearish trend.

On the daily chart below, the price action is now negative and the price of the market is below the important 19930.46 which was somewhat defensive yesterday as the market succumbed lower after breaking it. Also, the stochastic oscillator has returned bearish by pointing lower and the MACD remains negative. These conditions have validated the full bearish trend for the market today and I expect to see 18142 and 17625.00 soon.

Bitcoin was hesitant to sell yesterday despite the negative price action seen on the 1D, it only bottomed at 18630.00 and rose to close positive for the day. This is a welcome development for the buyers and my bias has shifted to bullish on the market. The market will continue to buy today as the price action on the daily chart is now positive and the stochastic oscillator is pointing higher in readiness for more buying. It has breached the resistance at 19930.46, it should target the 1D trendline resistance at 21239.58. A break above the level will confirm a more determined bullish trend.



Also, the market is totally bullish on the 4H chart with regard to my trading system. The stochastic oscillator is bullish, while the MACD is almost completely bullish as its histogram is bullish, so nothing serious can stop Bitcoin from buying today. Nevertheless, it has breached above a 4H trendline resistance at 19350.78 with strong bullish momentum, it would probably hit 22791.00 in this bullish phase.

I was right yesterday by suggesting a sluggish and indecisive market movement just like what happened on Saturday. But today's situation is different, I'm bearish on the market today though the downside movements might be limited. The sellers should be in control as Bitcoin holds below 19930.46 (only chance of the buyers) and still has negative price action below the level on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD is negative and stochastic oscillator neutral.

Summarily, nothing is against the bearish movements of the market today, which is a good reason for the sellers to be in control.

I explained the overall condition of the market in my last post and I suggested the reasons for them, I wouldn't want to repeat myself. What baffles me most in your response is the fact that you indicated the 1D chart as bullish, that is totally wrong. Judging from the 1D chart below, you could clearly see that the present trend/pattern of the market and the overall trend/pattern started on the 1st of June is bearish.

What you are referring to is a mere "emerging market" that is just forming, and might or mightn't become a trend eventually.

Neev mind this, but just my opinion.

The daily chart is not indicating bearish direction, even it is indicating bullish direction of bitcoin getting to $20000 again, which could be tomorrow. But this may not be certain and bear market can be what might occur, but indicating $17500 to likely be the support. About this, I prefer to go for bull side. Daily speculation this time may be wrong to go for more in bearish direction. I prefer for the market to dump little and I open the long position instead because bitcoin has fallen in price significantly. But that does not make you wrong. Although, I still believe that both bulls and bears would likely still be favoured in this present market. But, later, in long term like weeks to months, bulls would be favoured than the bears. We should always take into account the possible little bull markets that may result before the next big bull market.

On the monthly chart, the direction is not certain, but it is more indicating the bull direction for me. Just that to predict that can be more difficult because slight movement in the price in months can be of low fall or rise in candle candle stick and yet big increase or drop in price. But if someone can open a position that have liquidation at $10000, it is worth it. But the best is that 1BTC is 1BTC, it is monthly chart, just buy. If the price decrease, do not think about it, but have fun and know that bitcoin bulls would succeed as a result of the significant bear market that have occured. What follows the very sunny ☀️ time should be the rain 🌧️. What would follow the bear 🐻 market is the bull 🐂 market.

About the weekly chart, I have stopped using it like some weeks ago when I knew it was only (and yet still indicating) massively bear market, I hope other people should neglect it because it is not accurate at all. People should think more towards the bullish side, but the weekly chart is indicating massive bearish direction which would not likely going to happen. It indicated that bitcoin would likely drop to at least to $12500 some weeks ago but it did not happen. When bitcoin resisted $18000, the price has been going up, when I checked it today, it has moved from $12500 to $14900 today. I am expecting it to be moving up.

I don't like to be too rigid about my dispositions regarding the market because anything can happen at the slightest chance. This is why I like to do daily speculations to guide me on what Bitcoin would do daily and this thread testifies to that. As much as I would advise anyone to be waiting for further development for proper guidance, the trend of Bitcoin remains bearish in both long-term and short-term bias. The weekly and monthly charts are extremely bearish in trend, while the daily chart still holds an overall bearish outlook.

Sellers could only be threatened if 19930.46 is broken upward, that is only when I can take the short-term buyers seriously. What is helping Bitcoin at the current levels is that its price is already low, sellers are exercising caution, while buyers are increasing at lower levels daily.

This is just a constraint toward smooth selling but doesn't imply a bullish trend for the market.

All I believe now is that any price below $18000 would be a buying price for bitcoin and the price would rise again after getting to that price. The lowest bitcoin price this year, ever since last all-time-high was around $17500. I believe bitcoin can not get to this price before it would increase back again to around $20000 or above. I am not using any much analyses than the past bitcoin bull and bear periods in every four years after halving which I see would likely be what would happen again this time period. This is just what I analyzed based on that, I can be wrong, but anyone holding bitcoin as of now in long term are not making any wrong decision.

I decided to quote yesterday's speculation and image since nothing much has changed since then as expected. It will take the market a sustainable breakout from 19930.46 (for buyers to be in control) and 18142.00 (for sellers to be in control) before a definitive trading direction could unveil.

Therefore, it is unwise to call a direction today as the market will be indecisive and sluggish in movements just like it performed yesterday. Both scalpers/shortest-term buyers and sellers could continue to do so, but cautiously, as nothing different from yesterday's activities is expected today.

Bitcoin tried to buy yesterday but later failed and satisfied the bearish trend condition of the two specified conditions of the day, thereby hitting the low of 18531.42. It has gained the control of the buyers, but this might still be limited as the volatility of the market is low. It is waiting for a further breakout to speed up its movement.

The MACD is still negative, it will limit the power of the buyers despite having a bullish candle today. While the stochastic oscillator is almost indecisive yet looks more bullish. These are conflicting trading signals that will make the market moves up and down without a tangible breakthrough on either side until further notice.

Nonetheless, I favour the bearish view more than the bullish view today unless the market could breach above 19930.46.

Bitcoin did not continue the expected fall yesterday, though it sold and reached the daily bottom of 18142.00 before rebounding higher to close at 19244.73. This has resulted in a bullish pin bar on the daily chart which is a good reason to suspect a bullish trend today. Also, I had established another immediate barrier on the daily chart at 19930.46, this is lower than the former barrier of 20483.67, and a break above it will confirm that the buyers are in control for the target of the 1D trendline resistance now at 21607.85.



The 4H chart further reveals some good development that might help shape the market today. Bitcoin has tried better in moving higher and is now testing the 4H chart trendline. The successful break of the level higher at 19409.78 will keep the buyers in control today. But if the level fails to break and negative price action is formed below it, then the selling of the market might resume.

My first target of 18232.56 was hit today after the mild drama on Bitcoin since late yesterday. The market moved up to hit the peak of 19923.45 before later selling to today's bottom at 18142.00 and still looks bearish so far.

I remain bearish on the market below 20483.67 as the price action on the daily chart is bearish. The market might be making efforts to rise, but this is an opportunity to even sell it more as it is under pressure. The anticipation of the US interest rate decision and the other FOMC meeting minutes caused the rise witnessed yesterday, but the outcome of the news favours the sellers, which makes it later sell. Inflation is still a huge problem for the world, which is not good news for Bitcoin as the US continues to raise their Federal Funds Rate.

The MACD remains negative and the stochastic oscillator has had a bearish cross on the daily chart. This indicates a continued bearish trend for the market in the view to reset the low of June at 17625.00.

Bitcoin sold as expected yesterday, the market is still on the downtrend but the volatility is limited. The moving upwards of the stochastic oscillator might be largely responsible for the low volatility for the market to readjust favourably before the volatility will increase

Nonetheless, I remain bearish on the market today, my two resistance levels of 20483.67 and the current daily chart trendline at 21818.75 have not been threatened by the market so far. This shows the extent to which the sellers are still in control. Only a breach above 20483.67 will make me take the buyers serious this week.

The MACD remains negative, just like the price action on the daily chart. The levels in sight as the market sells are at 18232.56 and 17615.00.

Bitcoin sold sharply yesterday before gaining some bullish upthrusts, yet it closed negative as the high and low of the day are 19723.02 and 18232.56 respectively. I, therefore, remain bearish on this market despite the bullish movement later experienced yesterday.

The movement was due to the falling of the USD index which I believe is temporary. Furthermore, I remain firm with my weekend statement that "I will not take the buyers serious if the market holds below the resistance at 20482.67. This is especially as the price action of today is negative and the MACD supports the view too.

It's only the stochastic oscillator that is not in favour of the bearish trend but has moved away from the oversold region, which might be an advantage to the sellers later today and this week.

I was right to declare a mere bullish corrective phase for Bitcoin yesterday, it has now resumed its main bearish trend as expected. It was clear to me yesterday that the buyers were only joking if they could not overcome the resistance at 20482.67. Now, the market has formed a valid negative price action on the daily chart below the level, which is responsible for the sharp fall witnessed today.

The bias is now extremely bearish with the low of June at 17625 becoming more feasible than ever. The stochastic oscillator is oversold but it's making attempts to have a bearish cross inside the oversold region. This signifies an extreme bearish condition, while the negativity of the MACD would increase the pressure on the market today and this week.

I was right to be cautious yesterday as the stochastic oscillator on the daily chart is oversold. The buyers slightly gained control yesterday and might still be in control today since the market needs to adjust higher before continuing its bearish movement. However, I will not take the buyers serious today and the rest of this week if the market is still holding below 20483.67 as anything could happen below the level which could make the market continue its main bearish trend.

In plain terms, I see the current bullish movements as a mere correction of the selling that started last week Tuesday. But if it breaks the daily chart trendline resistance at 22207.53 higher, then a new phase of a bullish trend will unveil. This is what I don't see feasible for now as the MACD remains negative.

Yesterday was still bearish for Bitcoin as it ended negative despite its attempt to move back upward. I remain bearish on the market today, it needs to break some technical levels upward before my bias could change on it. And the first of these technical levels is at 20483.64, which is the high of Thursday. Failure to break it will make the asset risk further fall over time and will resume its bearish trend eventually. But if the level breaks upwards, it will further reach the daily chart trendline resistance at 22207.53, and possibly higher prices above it.

Nevertheless, the stochastic oscillator is oversold (threat to sellers) on the daily chart, this might cause a sluggish movement today as the market finds its way to readjust back to a safe zone. But the MACD is firmly bearish and might gain the attention of the sellers with time.

Yesterday's market movement indicates that Bitcoin is still under pressure and this might tarry till next week. The MACD is negative as the market tries to find its path today, and will likely continue to fall regardless of the bullish threat of the day.

In summary, the three important trendline levels of yesterday are still valid, but at different prices now. The levels to watch have shifted to 21306.65, 20311.67 and 19856.76. Holding below 21306.65 will preserve the overall bearish outlook of the market today, though I can't rule out the breach above 19856.76.

Still, I expect the market to hold below 20311.67 throughout today. Nonetheless, holding below 19856.76 is a strong assurance of a bearish trend continuation.

Bitcoin performed as expected yesterday, its bullish correction was limited and it maintained the bearish trend that has made it hit the day's bottom of 19617.62. The market is making attempt to move higher, which is normal for it to take a slight breath before continuing the bearish trend. This might end when the stochastic oscillator on the 4H chart reaches a reasonable level for the market to be better eased before resuming the selling.

I prefer not to call a direction today because of the many obstacles to overcome by the market. Although the trend is still bearish, there might be some indecisive movements today. The important trendline levels to watch are at 20951.67, 20141.62 and 20658.65, which is close to the low of yesterday.

The buyers would gain a slight control above 20141.62, yet I expect the market to be limited below 20951.67 throughout today. Below 20141.62 will give the sellers control but needs breakout below 20658.65 and 19617.62 to resume the selling. The MACD remains negative in favour of the sellers.





 

Bitcoin could not proceed higher yesterday after peaking at 22791.00, it then plummeted lower to break the support level mentioned yesterday at 22054.50. It dived afterwards and has had a bearish view ever since having broken another trendline support at 20666. Yesterday's inflation news in the US caused the fall, and I alerted my fellow BTT member before the news on a thread that could be found here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/alert-important-us-inflation-news-is-due-today-5413398

On the 4H chart, the market is a little bit messy, it is bearish, but the MACD is now neutral and the stochastic oscillator is oversold. These might cause conflicts of interest today, which makes me suggest a bullish correction before the market continues selling. Though the correction might/mightn't happen since yesterday's news might have a long-term impact on Bitcoin.



However, the daily chart is clearer about what happened. The trendline on the chart proved to be strong and rejected the price of the market lower from 22606.98 as it closed below the level. Therefore, my bias has shifted to bearish trend on Bitcoin today and till further notice. The market will move lower to retest the low of August at 18510.77, while a break of it will make the market proceed lower towards the low of June at 17625.00.

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Well said my friend, I do my best to analyze the market, give possible conditions and still watch out for any adverse development afterwards. That is why you might see me favouring a bullish trend today but a bearish trend tomorrow. Traders should be dynamic.

What I can say is that there are a lot of trading strategies, and we are free to use anyone that works for us. I'm only keeping my analysis here simple to avoid complications. I still do some internal diggings that I don't show here, but my final resolves are what my daily speculations posted portray.

I know many trading strategies, but imagine seeing trendline, MA (50, 100 & 200), Fibonacci tools, wave theory and many more on the same chart, won't they cause much conflict of interest? This makes me come to the conclusion of the best support and resistance levels for my readers so that they will not make mistakes because of me.

Taking yesterday as a case study, the determining level was 22054.50, holding above it was a go for buyers, but going below it was a go for the sellers. My trading conditions were clear enough and worked perfectly if one follows them accurately.

Also, traders tend to make mistakes if they believe that only certain principles apply to trading, many principles do apply, only that some traders might be blind to them. As a matter of fact, many approaches must be viewed critically before going for the one that is best, which is what I am doing here. In other words, I always do some internal filtering that might not be obvious to many.

Personally I think the local volume point of control where the 200 MA is priced on the 4hr at $21.5K is likely to act as support level, as there is a nice confluence of support here with long-term moving average and volume.

This is where price was initially rejected from as it acted as resistance, so therefore is now likely to further confirm it as support. I otherwise wouldn't put too much faith in an upwards sloping trend-line that only has two touch-points, as these are nothing more than a coincidence without three touch-points (a confirmed pattern). This would be the same trap as before with the resistance trend-line that was repeatedly broken without price moving to the upside. The fact that after the third time it broke through this trend-line that was repeatedly shifting appears to be more coincidence than cause and effect.

It will be interesting to see if price can hold the 50 Day MA at $22K as well as bullish territory on the RSI, as the latter hasn't been achieved since March, so could easily send price up another 8% to $24K resistance trend-line and distribution level in order to reach overbought territory. Given it's been 6 months since Bitcoin has been overbought on the Daily time-frame, many of us have forgotten that this is possible, even within bear markets. The end of the week will otherwise mark 3 months since the $17.5K low which will further given me February 2019 vibes of being in the second part of confirming and forming a macro low.

22k BTC price is a great relief to speculators and investors at this moment where Bitcoin has noised dive below 20k for several weeks so arriving at a 22k+ price is something to emphasize before taking any decision and I believe what op has said that this recent Bitcoin chart movement should be properly analyzed before any decision is taken and for traders I advice opening more buying positions for Bitcoin and holding stablecoins.

The market conditions right now require close observation!

Bitcoin bought as expected yesterday, the bullish steam is slowing down gradually as the last five candlesticks on the 4H chart are indecisive. This calls for more observations on what the market might do today before taking decisions. Nonetheless, the last candlestick ended in a bullish pin bar, which is a sign of the bullish continuation towards might the expected target of 24440.42. And the trendline still favours a bullish trend above 20624.87, just as the MACD indicator remains positive.

But if the pin bar could not help the market to launch higher than 22469.23, then the sellers might be gaining control bit by bit. While a break of the low of today at 22054.50 will slip the market to a minor bearish trend, which I will only treat as a mere correction of the recent bullish movements.

I continue to favour the bullish trend of Bitcoin, the market eventually hit my target at 21825.97 today and has peaked at 22362.58 so far. More bullish impacts are to be felt today and this week as more buyers are being attracted to the market. I will ever favour this bullish trend provided it holds above the current trendline support at 20289.87 and the MACD is positive on the 4H chart.

The next target is at 24440.42. This level is not yet visible on the 4H chart but it is there and I mentioned it some time ago. It might be revealed today if more bullish impacts are witnessed.

Bitcoin overcame the adverse price action on the 4H chart shown yesterday after observing a slight correction to the low of 21111.13. It has progressed on the bullish path and remains above its current trendline support at 19867.11. I am bullish above that level today, the market almost hit my target at 21825.97 as it peaked at 21804.30 and has the tendency to rise further.

It has however formed a positive price action on the chart, which will help in buying further as the stochastic oscillator points higher in readiness for more buying and the MACD is positive.

The buyers took control of the market as expected yesterday and Bitcoin hit the peak of 21589.33 so far. The level is just a few points away from the expected target of 21825.97 which might still be hit after some corrections.

On the 4H chart, good development with MACD has occurred as the indicator is now completely bullish. But the price action is still negative and the stochastic oscillator is already overbought. These suggest some degree of correction today, but it should be limited above the current trendline support at 19483.87. I remain bullish above the level until further notice.

Btc did a great trend again today, it was able to hit the price of $21k again after the sudden dump and I think this is another bullish trend that will retest the resistance level again and once successful, we might see the real bull trend now. Indicators are also telling the same thing, it's good that we are able to break another resistance, now we are just waiting for another confirmation. BTC is doing great, along with the other good coins with their good updates, let's see if that can affect Bitcoin and if that trend will continue until the end of the month.

I carefully followed the behaviour of the market yesterday, Bitcoin was hesitant to take a side throughout the day but has had a successful bullish breakout above the 4H trendline today. The breakout has confirmed a bullish trend for it as I indicated yesterday.

My bias today is bullish as long as the market remains above the recent trendline level at 19661.76. The interpretation of the MACD status is neutral but its powerful histogram has had a bullish confirmation. This buttress my point of a bullish day and the buyers might be in control until a target of 21925.97 is reached as I also indicated yesterday.

Noted and thanks for the observation! I carefully watch the market with many timeframes developments even if I don't show them in my daily speculations here. Aside from that, there are other additional working strategies that guide me against any adverse developments in the market. And the market hardly fails me when all my strategies align with the same decisions, they aren't at the moment. For now, patience is needed as sluggish/indecisive movements might cause bad decisions if care is not taken.

Just like the MACD by the looks of it, don't be caught out by the bullish divergence on the 4hr chart. If it continues to play out, it'll provide a relief rally at minimum to re-test resistance levels, if it can clear 60.


When everyone is bearish, and all time-frames look bearish, sometimes these divergence signals are the only warning signs provided that in fact the bear trend remains fragile. Just my two satoshis right now....

I was right to have suspected a retracement yesterday, but the retracement has slipped into what looks like a reversal now. This calls for a strict watch of the market today before taking a position. Bitcoin might want to start a ranging pattern, time will tell as the guidance of the 4H and daily chart are crucial at this time.

On the 4H chart, the MACD is negative and the stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought regions. These might limit the power of the buyers today and send the market back to a lower price for a retest of the weekly low of 18510.77. While a further break of it will target 17625.00 (low of June). However, in case the Bulls gains more power and were able to launch a successful attack on the trendline resistance at 19772.77, then a higher level of 21825.97 would be unveiled.



Also, the daily chart has some interesting outlooks that traders should be careful with. The stochastic oscillator has had a bullish cross, this is a warning to potential sellers. And note that this would be aggravated if today's candlestick is positive.

My verdict: The market might slip into a ranging pattern this week. This means that it might only have limited bullish power today before selling. But if it breaches above 19772.77, it has confirmed a buy signal.

Technically, we didn't leave the bear trend even at the price of $20k, now the price confirms it and it's good to wait for a little more dump because it's more possible now to happen. $16k might be the real bottom as expected by many, or the price can still go down depends on the trend of Bitcoin. Just continue to monitor the market, playing short right now might be a good strategy but of course you still need to set up your position to avoid any liquidation. TAYOR!

Sorry, I just saw your post today. One thing you should know is that the market is at times unpredictable and highly indecisive in movements, especially in the short-term outlook. All trading strategies have their fair share of that indecision too as they react to bad market conditions. That was what happened, breakout strategy could have false-breakout as many times as possible if the market is indecisive

The reason for the last is the directionless movements seen in the past 9 days before yesterday caused by the sideways movements of the market. You can see I switched to the daily chart even before reading your post to see the broader outlook and to avoid being caught in the web of markets' indecisiveness.

I was right to be careful yesterday, Bitcoin initially rose but topped at 20179.52 before diving down to break away from its sideways lower levels and bottoming at 18637.51 for the day. This is a bearish trend confirmed by principles, and it shows that the market might not have bottomed yet for the year as it has renewed the hope of journeying down to the low of June at 17625.00

The price action is negative on the daily chart, and so is the MACD indicator. The stochastic oscillator is also pointing lower in readiness for more bearish movements today.

However, careful dealing is advised as well in case the market wants to observe a minor retracement before proceeding with the selling.

Extreme caution is advised in trading Bitcoin as it repeated its indecisive movement yesterday, it bought and sold many times. This is misleading, and it might continue with these sideways and ranging movements until strong activities that could be caused by news or liquidity happens. Until then, I am neutral on the market, the daily chart explains how indecisive the market is. I will wait for further guidance today before calling for a direction tomorrow.

I've been keeping a close eye on your thread after the failed break-out from trend-line resistance. Personally I wasn't very convinced by it as someone who prefers trend-lines to be connected by candle closes as opposed to candle wicks, or at least as many touches as possible without breaking candle bodies. In that respect, I saw this failed break-out as opposed to what you were referencing, for what that's worth.

Anyway, I think we are both on the same page for how the current resistance trend-line looks:

Bitcoin refused to sell yesterday but rose after some initial selling efforts to confirm its continued sideways movements which are not in the interest of both the buyers and sellers. It topped and bottomed at 19956.49 and 19583.00 respectively. This is a tight difference, I hope a tangible breakout from its long-lasting sideways levels will happen soon for the market to have a definite direction.

However, I am still bearish today judging by the guide of the 4H chart wherein the market is negative with the MACD and Stochastic oscillator. The price action is also bearish as the market holds below the trendline resistance at 19900.67. Staying below the level will continue to put pressure on Bitcoin today.

But a break above it might cause a bullish spike that might reach 21825.97.

Bitcoin has been moving in a tight range but could not break below the extended 4H chart trendline. Nonetheless, trading today needs caution as the price action on the chart is negative, just as the MACD is still negative. This makes me conclude that the sellers would be controlled today, but the volatility might be low.



Also on the daily chart, the price action is bearish as the market creates a low daily candle for the past 8 days, which suggests that the market has slipped into its sideways movement again.

Irrespective of that, the bias is bearish on the daily chart today as the trendline, price action, MACD and Stochastic oscillator on the chart confirm it. Lower prices should be touched today.

Yesterday was indecisive as Bitcoin moved up a little and hit the high of the day at 20440.00 but could not proceed further towards my first target at 21825.97.

I am neutral with the direction of the market for now as the whole 4H chart representation is mixed. The market is still above the current trendline support at 19691.32, but with negative price action. While the MACD is also negative and the Stochastic oscillator has neared the oversold region despite being bearish.

These conditions are tricky, and a break below 19691.32 today will slip the market to a bearish trend. Yet, if the price action could turn positive above 19691.32, buyers would take control today.

Bitcoin was pressured yesterday until it bottomed at 19566.00 where it rebounded and has been at higher levels till now.

On the 4H chart, the market has made a successful break above the trendline resistance at 19985.65, and by principle, it would remain on the bullish path unless the current trendline support at 19933.56 is broken lower. This indicates that I prefer a bullish trend today, but caution is still needed because the price action on the 4H chart is neutral as the MACD is negative.

This might cause tussles between the buyers and the sellers. Yet, if positive price action is formed above the trendline support at 19933.56, then the buyers would take control today and the market will aim for a target of at least 21825.97.

Bitcoin sold yesterday after hitting the 4H trendline but could not break the level higher and formed a negative price action below the level. This resulted in the market selling, but the volatility was low as it bottomed at $19843.76.

The market is still under pressure today, at least mildly, and will continue selling provided the negative price action could be maintained below the current 4H chart trendline resistance at $20219.07. However, the buyers might take control if the trendline level is broken upwards. Nonetheless, the MACD is negative and the Stochastic oscillator remains bearish in signal and not oversold, which still suggests a bearish trend today.

The second condition of my trading insight worked yesterday where Bitcoin was hesitant to buy further below 20751.65 thereby forming a negative price action below the level. This validated a bearish trend and the market sold to the bottom of 19540.00, therefore I congratulate those who followed my insight.

Today, the market development is different as positive price action is on the 4H chart, the buyers have done great joy after the low of yesterday was hit. The determining trendline level has now slipped to 20507.84, a break above it would confirm a bullish trend today which might eventually hit the resistance at 21825.97.

Failure to do that, and the market forming a negative price action below the level like yesterday would result in a fall.

My bullish suspicion of yesterday worked as the market moved higher and has hit a high of 20542.07 ever since then. The bias of the market today is still slightly bullish, it might proceed higher to hit the determining trendline resistance at 20751.65 after a minor correction lower. The condition might then help the buyers to gain full control after breaking the level to afterwards aim for a target of 21825.91 and 20444.42 in extension.

In another view, if the market is hesitant to break 20751.65 and forms a negative price action below it on the 4H chart, it might then slip back to the bearish trend to continue its journey towards 17625.00 (June low). The stochastic oscillator is almost overbought as well.

Welcome to a new business day, Bitcoin was bearish last week and the overall outlook of the market remains bearish still but might correct higher to take more breath. It managed to break a minor support level at 19893.87 yesterday which made it sell towards today's low of 19520. I hope this would be the bottom of today as the bulls are trying to take control today.

There is bullish price action on the 4H chart which will be a threat to the continuation of the selling today, I will, however, be cautious to sell the market unless its price action returns bearish. Furthermore, the major support level remains at 17626.00 as I have always indicated but there might be a minor correction toward the trendline resistance at 21009.64. It does not matter if the market hits this level or not, what matters is to watch out for a bearish price action below it before resuming the selling of the market.

But in case the level breaks higher, it might be a setback for the bearish trend as a short-term reversal might happen.

No doubt, Bitcoin is in a bearish trend as the weekly and daily charts confirm it. Yet, we should be wary of the oversold condition on the lower charts, this made me move down to the 4H chart today for a closer look.

On the 4H chart, the market has been making efforts to take a breath higher from the selloff seen in the past two days, it might want to retrace more today before resuming its bearish movements which I will confirm when happens. I expect the retracement to halt at or below the trendline support at 21280.65 and bring about the fall resumption that might make it continue its bearish journey towards 17625.00. A break of that level would mix the outlook of the market.

This is the highly possible scenario as the MACD on the on the 4H, 1D and 1W charts are all negative.

Congratulations to those who read my speculation and perhaps use it in their trading plans yesterday. Bitcoin eventually find a path on the bearish trend which was my preferred bias for the day. My analysis of yesterday remains valid today but everyone should be careful of the oversold condition on the lower charts. The market might continue selling or wants to first retrace higher before continuing the selling, so be careful. The major supports in sight are at 18910.72 and 17625.00, which is the low of June 2022.

What happened yesterday shows that Bitcoin is still unwilling to take sides as the battle of short-term supremacy continues between the buyers and the sellers. A false breakout occurred after it breached 21677.65 higher but could not sustain the buying as it topped at 21816.73 before retreating lower till now. Presently, the market is battling to break below the current trendline support on the 4H chart which is lower than yesterday's level at 21344.89. A 4H candle close below it will add bearish credence to what the market would do today.



My preference has however shifted to the daily chart which gives a better insight into what the market might do today. The market is still moving in a tight bound on the chart, so caution is needed. Yesterday's market ended negative and created a Doji on the daily chart. This suggests a negative bias today as a reversal is possible within the sideways movement still seen with the last 7 candlesticks formed on the chart.

Regardless of that, the price action of the last two candlesticks is bearish, which makes me believe that Bitcoin might sell today. But this is provided it stays below 21690.67 (today's opening price) and breaks below 21310.16 (yesterday's low). The Stochastic oscillator is not a problem anymore, it is not oversold again just as MACD continues to be negative in favour of this bearish expectation.

I think it's more of the Fed decision last week that really affected the price not just crypto but I think stocks too, maybe @adaseb can confirmed this as I know he followed stocks movement or at least it's correlation with bitcoin, correct me if I'm wrong.

So it the highest we got so far is $25k, but not sustainable, and then the bearish sentiments starts with the Fed announcement. We will have to see that $35k-$40k, we just have 4 months to accomplishment that huge jump with how the outlook of the market right now.

Fed decision and ethereum merger will have a short time effect on the price of Bitcoin but since that is an external factor their impact will be minimal and Bitcoin will uptrend from that situation in a short time, but also we must settle for one fact that the majority of the year 2022 have been supplied by the bear market and that may continue to the end of the year but will witness pockets of Bitcoin pull attempt and break out price, we should anticipate a Bitcoin price of 35,000 to 40k within the last quarter of the year when all these events settle down and Bitcoin start building a strong resistance.

Bitcoin puts up a good fight yesterday as expected but could not break the confirming trendline resistance at 21927.87. At this point, I am slightly in favour of the bulls and any downside movement today will be treated as a mere correction that would create more earning advantage for the buyers.

And as you can see on the 4H chart below, the determining/confirming trendline resistance has shifted lower, which is a better opportunity that would disregard the sideways movement of the market by principle. Therefore, a break above the current trendline resistance at 21677 would confirm a short-term bullish trend that might see the market hitting 24440.42 and 25208.78.

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Bitcoin is truly bearish in the long-term view, but should we disregard the intraday developments? The answer is No. I know how to accurately read the fundamental and technical analysis, and I know their strengths and weaknesses.

This makes me prefer the technical analysis because nothing is hidden in its sight, unlike the fundamental analysis that 10 traders could contradict themselves with their conclusions. The clarity of the technical analysis is there and true to its principles, and it is always working for me. All I need is patience most times! Anyone reading my daily speculations would not only gain but also learn if read insightfully.

The market can go either way truly, yet the bias will always shift to a side for us to take decisions (long or short term). For now, the bias is more bullish and the technical developments and levels being broken should be our further guide.

Right, sketchy and very tricky as well, we are looking for the sideway pattern right now, but still it can go either direction and hopefully it will not be on the negative side again.


I wanted to see breach 21927.87, that will be huge, this is a big resistance and if we can overcome it, we can still go to $22k at the end of the month. Still a good improvement as compare to those predictions like $18k. or lower.

My warning to the sellers paid off yesterday as buyers are trying to take control of the market. Nothing much has changed on Bitcoin since yesterday, it continues to move within its sideways levels that are tightly bound as I indicated. Yet, there is more hope of a minor bullish correction that might be worthwhile to the short-term buyers as long as the Stochastic oscillator on the daily chart is oversold.

The whole market scenario is sketchy, so extreme caution is still needed today. This is why I have prepared some simple technical levels to watch, perhaps the market would decide on breaking them.

Buy is possible above 21774.67 (sideways peak), while sell is possible below 20761.90 (sideways bottom). Also, a breach of 21927.87 (4H trendline resistance) will increase the assurance that the buyers are in control today.

Now it seems that Bitcoin is going down due to US dollar rising, bond yields are going higher, oil is creeping up and there is hints that the fed might not stop hiking. No idea why.

Seems inflation now is not the problem but the tight labor market. Unless productivity increases and unemployment goes up, it will do little for combating inflation. So all eyes are now at the economic data which will correlation with bitcoins macro moves in the medium future ahead.

Yesterday's analysis was a broader picture of Bitcoin, and the long-term bias remains bearish. Yet, one should be careful of any adverse development in the market within the bearish trend, which makes me use both the 4H and daily charts today.

As the market holds within the mentioned technical levels of 25214.61 and 17784.96 waiting for a breakout, further developments are happening within the levels. The daily chart validates a bearish trend but has been forming short candlesticks. This suggests the lack of interest by the sellers due to the oversold condition of the Stochastic oscillator on the chart. Bitcoin needs a break below yesterday's low of 20890.19 to resume its selling for the test of the low of June at 17784.96. Therefore, caution in selling this market is advised today. If Bitcoin closes positive today, it might then start a short-term bullish journey that might reach the trendline resistance at 24492.73, and a break of that level would announce 31599.68.



Also on the 4H chart, caution is advised as the market has been channelling (sideways) for days. It needs a successful breakout from either the peak or the bottom on this channel before a definitive short-term trend could be ascertained. However, the Stochastic oscillator is pointing higher on the chart, which suggests traders might prefer a bullish path today. A break of the trendline resistance at 22347.76 will further confirm it. Tomorrow should guide further on the market development.

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Yes, the overall trend of the market is bearish, yet one should be cautious of the long-term scope only. A minor bullish pattern is forming already, patience is advised. I would update you on this tomorrow.

The truth remains that Bitcoin is bearish. Instead of gauging it by the year-end, it's clear to me that it will fully become bullish only above 25214.61, which is the August 2022 high, and above 26337.38, which is a weekly chart trendline resistance. Don't just assume, let the technical analysis gauge you.

Most likely this news will likely thank a toll on the market, and it seems that we are not yet over the ghost of Mt. Gox.

But the Sept fed rate hike meeting is not going to be very good for us, at least they know that the inflation is not slowing down. I mean they are just reacting to what we are seeing and it really doesn't look good.

So I will concur as well with the OP that the market is bearish short term or at least up to the end of 2022.

Yes it does seem bearish. If you look on the weekly you can see that we got front run on the previous weekly support. Many were probably going to short there and missed the opportunity. Plus the stock market is also turning over.

Right now I think the market is waiting on CPI prints, unemployment numbers and fed rate decisions before it decides which way to go. Right now we will just chop around unless there is some black swan event. There is also the ETH merge and the mt gox coins being distributed sometime soon.

This thread is born out of the passion I have for trading and regardless of my previous experience on a similar thread on the forum. It would always speak my view about the direction of Bitcoin with chart representations on the 4H, 1D and 1W only. I'm dedicating just one out of the many trading systems I know for this purpose.

One of the reasons I opened this topic is that I discovered that many users of the forum are just quoting the values of Bitcoin randomly without knowing the reason why they do so or what is exactly happening in the market, a lot of assumptions everywhere. Trading and gambling are not the same, such people might learn much through this thread if they are patient enough rather than attacking, being unconstructive or claiming superiority in trading.

I did not open this thread to claim I am better than anyone, and I will try my best to dedicate my precious time to it daily. No one is perfect, any speculation could be right or wrong, so please note that it is my view on Bitcoin and anyone using it to trade is doing so at their own risk, though it might help many to earn massively. "Plan and manage your risks all by yourself." Also, be informed that it is not a must for any targets to be hit, no one controls the market.

Again, please, note that this is my own opinion on Bitcoin, you might have yours, no problem, but let your replies and questions be constructive and wise.


Thank you!

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Bitcoin is bearish in trend on the weekly chart, the whole outlook on the chart attests to that as the market has a bearish price action that wants to continue the selling witnessed last week. However, the major technical levels to watch out for are the peak of last week at 25214.61 (resistance), which doubles as a double-top level and the low of June at 17784.96 (support), which is the low of 2022.

A break above 25214.61 will launch a bullish attach on the trendline resistance at 26337.38, and if further broken, it would be a major breakthrough for the cryptocurrency as it might reverse higher in long-term disposition for a test of 48189.83 and the all-time high of 68999.99 in extension.

At the moment, the trend of Bitcoin is bearish and it aims to test the low of June at 17784.96 provided it maintains a bearish candlestick for this week and holds below 25214.61. A break below this level would further weaken the market as the Stochastic Oscillator points lower and MACD is negative.



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]