Topic: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment (Read 676 times)

This strategy seems strangely interesting to me. Choosing some good (but not too good) for better stakes. Although I never expected to see that much profits there. But as many others stated you need good amount of money to make this system work, yet you may not be motivated to do it if it goes somewhere like thousands with chain of losses.

Before applying such a system (or any system for that matter), you have to make a decision whether or not you will be willing to invest thousands of dollars in case you are required to. If your answer is no, I suggest you don't play around with it because it can go wrong very quickly. Many gamblers might think a losing streak can't hit them and even if it does, it will last just for a few games. But if you look at my results, you will notice 8 straight losses just with one team. if you do this with multiple teams, that number can rise drastically if you are unlucky.   

Pmalek, Thank a lot for the link ... It's just that in the Gambling section, topics are usually lost pretty quickly, so I assumed that further updates would be in the current thread.

Betting Experiment #2 was already posted a few days ago.
I called it Chasing the Draw because it's about betting on draws for your selected teams every time. I am not pleased with the results, but you can see all the details and results in the thread. The performance could have been much better with randomly picked matches with high enough odds, or by increasing the stake.

Oh, I can't get used to your new look ...  Do you by any chance want to fill us in the details? You will sort of keep your finger on the pulse of your strategy and we will watch. Since if I understood you correctly, the next updates will appear no earlier than in a few months, (I would be glad even for a short description). 

Probably not. The odds on the top teams are generally very low. To be profitable, you would have to invest more than double the amounts for each lost bet.

If you take a look at the odds that bookies give on Bayern Munich wins, for example, you would see that in the German Bundesliga they can be as low as 1.10-1.20. Even when they play away, I doubt they are rarely above 2.00. If you are interested in betting on the favorites, there is another approach you can take. You can set yourself a profit goal in your mind. For example, You bet on Bayern to win every single time. And whenever they win, your goal is to earn $20 per match. You can make this $200, or $2, whatever suits you.

Let's say the odds on the next Bayern match is 1.20. To earn $20 on this match, you would have to invest $100 on your bet. 100 x 1.2 = $120. If they win, you made a $20 profit. If they lose, you do the same thing for the next round, but this time you have to increase your stake to account for the $100 loss in your previous round. 

To make it easier, let's make the odds 1.20 again. You can now bet $200, for example. If you win, you'll get a payout of $240. In those two rounds you invested a total of $200, and you won $240, earning yourself $40. As you can see, it's quite an expensive system to play.

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I have started betting experiment #2 and when it's done, I will post the results on the forum.

Well, gambling houses and other gambling entities has to do everything they can to keep afloat and survive, you will understand that when you own a gambling house that has a lot of winners. I think that your strategy of betting on the middle teams seems to work because they have a really predictable win, do you plan to do an experiment where you are betting on the top teams?

Steve could probably shed some more light on all of this but it might also be out of his hands. He might see to it that the player doesn't get limited by the platform's staff, but each game has a higher authority that oversees it. The gaming providers might place restrictions on a player's gambling activities as suggested by the FortuneJack support agent.

If you guys are worried about limits there is always option of Pinnacle. I did not use them for a last couple of years but they were always targeting high rollers. They have limits from 20-50k $ depending on sports. But here is the catch that limit resets every 3 seconds. Basically it just gives them opportunity to adjust the odds and you have no limits.

As I said before, I don't think bookie limits are the problem here. Actual problem with martingale is always the size of the bank. These days there are so many options you will be able to place the bet for any given amount. If you need to place a bet of 500k $ you can always do it across several bookies in case your favorite bookie limits you.

This is natural, casinos are in the business of making money and if they can see that you are a professional gambler then they are not going to close your account but they will severely limit your account to the point there is no way for you to profit consistently from them.

In fact many casinos have on their TOS that their site is for recreation purposes only and if you happen to be a professional gambler they will do exactly that so there is not much you can do, it is because of this that sport bettors have one account on each casino they find can be trusted to try to slow down the rate at which they are limited on the bets they make.

Maybe you should try talking to Steve directly? In the context, what would Sportsbet make an exception for Bitcointalk users. Since, to be honest, I would not dare to use a betting strategy on another platform other than Sportsbet (so I hope that we will get an answer to this question soon).

Limiting a gambler who is winning so many bets consecutively after few losses during intervals shows that such sportbooks are not capable of allowing that gambler to win constantly because of less bankroll that the sportbook has or their bad intention due to the fear of bankruptcy if that gambler manages to come out with very big wins following a system just as you did. I am happy to see that your choices to play at, are really good.

I promised I would talk with the customer service teams of FortuneJack and Sportsbet and I did. This is what they told me.

FortuneJack
FJ support told me they don't have any max limits on football bets. Even lower leagues, such as the 2nd or 3rd leagues of a country are not limited from FJ's site in terms of maximum betting limits. However, the game providers can place certain limits and even limit individual players.



Sportsbet
When it comes to Sportsbet.io, the situation is a bit more complicated. They have betting limits, but their agent couldn't tell me any specifics. Different leagues have different limits depending on several factors as you can see in our correspondence. The support agent suggested I try to place the bet in the range I want and see if it works. This isn't exactly the answer I was hoping for and I wanted greater transparency, but it seems they can't provide such information as they don't have it.

That is very possible, I have my own trading strategy and I always like to test it against the markets and in one instance I remember that I tested it against ripple and it lost 16 times in a row, the system was still profitable despite that awful streak but it is obvious that most traders after just a few losses they will begin to get upset and then they will make a major mistake losing most of their capital in the process.

And the same is true for sports betting, most of the time you will have small losing streaks of 3 or 4 games in a row but it is very possible to lose 10 or more times in a row and that is when money management skills come to the rescue so you can avoid losing all of your capital and you can keep yourself afloat until the bad streaks ends.

I think I already wrote about it but here it goes again. If you bet on top leagues like Premier League and Champions League and have an account without flags on top bookie like Sportsbet or Stake you are 100% good to go to for very high amounts. I am talking at least a couple of BTC per bet an probably even much more.

If you are betting on French National league like I suggested for catching draws you will get limited for sure. Nobody in their right mind would accept that big bet on small competition. Happened to me multiple times with eSports handicaps, I get limited to around 10 mBTC which is totally ok since the reward for whole tournament is maybe 2K $ and match fixing becomes a realistic option, especially since the team in question just needs to drop one map and can even go and win the game.

And that goes perfectly with my proposed strategy. You can start by picking the draws from small leagues and if you get to big bets just switch to stronger leagues and not get limited.

I think Trofo was the one who offered the best insight regarding this issue by stating that a Martingale system is nowhere close to a guaranteed winning strategy. Therefore, sportsbooks wouldn't limit or block your accounts if you used it. That goes for those from the top of the list when it comes to trust and quality. Since I do most of my betting on Sportsbet and FortuneJack, I will get in touch with their customer support departments and see what they say about maximum betting limits.   

This is the closest one i've found based on their terms and conditions.


I think OP's strategy is fine but the profit limits could cause a bit of problem (if the stake goes above the thousands) since different sportsbook have their own way of setting the limits on each game.

Yes, that's pretty impressive ... not in the sense of a strategy (although the idea is very interesting), but in the sense that how much patience you need to have in order to adhere to the planned plan. Good luck with your endeavors in the new season.

But the problem is we cannot apply statistics and probability in Betting in dice so in the end it is still Luck that makes us win , if we can apply that two mentioned then i may agree in this matter but if not then lets accept the fact that in gambling Luck really matters.
though depend on what is gambling for you and how you deal with it, but all in all  luck that will give you win , Unless you can prove me that the probability and statistics can make you a sure winner then i will change my stand regarding this.
and besides i have not seen any one that claims he is an dice expert , because even in the past there are cheating that happens in each event for one can win with assurance.

I beg to disagree, everything in this world has math, humanity is obsessed with patterns and math helps us find those patterns no matter how obscure. Here is a link regarding 6 sided dice probability. I do agree with you about Martingale though, that kind of strategy will only work if you have the money.

The French National League is one competition I had on my mind, but since this is the third division in France, I wasn't sure if there are some maximal betting limits applied by bookies for this league. I like the French Ligue 2 for draws as well as the Mexican league that is without a doubt the strongest football league in all of South America.   

I will probably start this week or in the following week.

You can't use probability and statistics on events that are not connected as is the case with dice. There is no math in the world that can tell you which number is more likely to roll in the next dice throw, each throw is a separate event. Yes it will all fall inside nominal values when you have large enough number of events but that does not help you when betting. Local results can and often will be slanted heavy to one side and there is no telling when normalization will commence.

That is also the reason why every martingale strategy will get busted sooner or later unless you have infinite bank and no betting limits.

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

I look forward to seeing the results of your new modified strategy. I have one more question - when do you plan to start testing it and how soon will we be able to compare its performance with the last strategy?   

No I was replying to madnessteat who was talking about his "13 losses in a row" at one "game", but the same philosophy applies to betting, there is also a house edge that should be taken into account : it's called the bookmaker's overround. If you convert odds into their implied probabilities (eg 1/odds x 100 for decimal odds) and you add up them you will get a result above 100%, that's the house edge of the bookie.

I think it is better to mention that depend on what gambling are you dealing mate , In this thread it is soccer/football that yeah can be used skills and Psychology but in other gambling games like Dice or Slots? maybe it is Luck that will make you win?
anyway we have our own believe and strategy and what i have is depend in which game i will play.

I don't believe in luck, I am more of a statistics and psychology person when it comes to gambling. Luck is just fancy term for probability and coincidence, they were just at the right place and at the right time. Humans are so obsessed with finding patterns and so am I and I think that if I believe in luck, that would mean that there is no pattern which is close to impossible. I believe that they should just analyze the game more in-depth but enough to not be obsessive about it, relying on luck is not a good thing.

Ask and you shall receive   Basically you are looking for low scoring leagues with constant level of quality among many teams. Most of South America is good but I am finding most of my draws from following leagues: Uruguay, Colombia, Egypt, Costa Rica, Panama, South Africa, Morocco, Iran, French National, Tunisia, Spanish second league and Mexico. You can play most of the games from these leagues with that system of 1.5x your stake and finish with a profit.

I was using all that when I was actively looking for draws, if you are content with one or two games per day I actually prefer to go top leagues and high stake games. For instance Chelsea - United yesterday was a perfect example.

I actually stopped betting on draws simply because I upped my stakes and I am watching all the games I bet on. It is very difficult to watch the game where you need draw to hit. I can't properly cheer, you are hoping for 0:0 and it just ruins my experience. That is why I placed a high stake bet United x2 yesterday and then I can properly watch, cheer and collect profits

Yeah, I will do that. I need to look at a few football leagues that historically have plenty of draws. Does anyone have any suggestions and does a particular league spring to your mind where you have noticed a big number of draws overall?

I am not sure if this question was for me or someone else. I was not taking about casino games.

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game? Because some casinos take a house edge of more than 5%. That means you are getting one losing round(ie unwinnable round) for 20 rounds. In this case it's hard to not get at least one losing round in a such long streak.  

Labouchere seems overly complicated system for me and I would never use it on something where there are days between events. It is made to offset house edge on stuff where odds should be 50:50 which sports betting definitely in not. Maybe I just never got the hang of it.

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

I would suggest you consider the Labouchere (or split martingale) betting system as well. I think it might be appropriate for your betting experiment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labouch%C3%A8re_system

The scary thing is that it can quickly get out of hands and if you are applying it to a few different teams at the same time, having 13 straight losses can happen. I wouldn't be interested trying this particular system with real money because of that. I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

Your slightly modified Martingale betting strategy is paying off. Congratulations to you.

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

Yes I agree with you but even with smaller odds, the total amount of money you're putting at risk will remain the same at the end because your martingale will win and stop more quickly for each streak but your stakes will have to be bigger for the same prize.

You can decide to not look at the odds and always bet on a particular outcome having a target profit in your mind. For example, you make it your goal to make a profit of $10 (or whatever) on Nijmegen every time they play and win. But for this strategy, you need an even bigger bankroll than with the Martingale I experimented with because the odds will be low from time to time. You need to keep increasing your stake also considering the losses you made in the previous matchdays.     

agree @paxmao for starters they can bet normally in their own before trying advanced techniques like martingale .

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets .
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if this is a loosing system he wont post it because nobody wants to loose  but in gambling ,  a loosing bet can sometimes become a winner if it got lucky .

I think it's a pretty risky strategy but I wouldn't say it's a losing system. It's not a real martingale since the game isn't totally random like a casino gamble game. In fact it's rather unlikely for a middle ranking team to lose 4 or 5 matches away in a row (a streak with no draw is more likely to happen though)

The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

And that is just for one team. I made the experiment with 4 teams. Imagine if the other teams had losing streaks lasting a few weeks as well during the same period? That could well be 15-20 lost matches in a row.

In terms of winning probability, both systems are similar if there can be 1 out of 3 possible outcomes of the match.

You are misunderstanding, I'm pretty sure that when they say that they can't guarantee profits they are talking about themselves and no one else, after all we know that in the world of sport bets as in the world of trading and investing you cannot guarantee results, even if you think you have a winning system when it comes to sport bets if one of those people that are looking for a tipster happen to bet in the games when you have a negative streak then they are going to lose money.

Just take a look at the OP, the system he is using is without a doubt interesting and it has a lot of potential and yet according to him he missed eight bets in a row with one team and in many cases that could be enough to wipe out a newbie that doesn't know how to administer his bankroll.

A few weeks ago,I saw some guy promoting a sports betting Discord server,which guarantees profits.
I think that this is most likely a tipster scam.No legit tipster can guarantee profits out of sports betting.
I like the part in your system,where you pick teams that are in the middle of the ranking.
Betting on teams like Real Madrid,Barcelona,Liverpool and Bayern is low risk/low profit because they are always favorites,but it kinda gets boring after a while.
Anyways,I wouldn't use martingale on football betting and wouldn't bet without analyzing the team.    

You are completely right. If you take a look at the losing streak I had with Sochaux with 8 missed bets in a row, that might be enough for many players to lose their entire bank. The risk to reward ratio was huge though, and the $700 bet turned into a $2.000 payout. But there was no certainty of that happening, and the chances were equally big that the team would lose the next 8 matches.   

That could work too if you prefer a strategy that doesn't force you to increase your stake but less risk means less profits and OP's strategy is the complete opposite. I'm not saying OP's strategy is better but there's pros and cons for each strategy. Sometimes it pays off and there are times where it could quickly burn your bankroll.

Yes you are certainly right, odds must be less accurate in minor leagues than in major ones but if we want to take advantage of this flaw it's maybe less risky and more simple to bet with a "normal" strategy no?

The capital (bank) was not $3. That was just the starting betting amount. You can select any stake you are comfortable with, it doesn't have to be $3. Start with $1, or $0.1 if your bookie accepts low wagers. Or begin with $10. The lower your starting bet, the smaller your wins will be. But consider the opposite as well. If you begin with $10, the amount of money you have to stake to make a profit can quickly become crazy high. $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320... At this point you have already invested over $600.

so your capital was only 3usd and you bet it straight and win continously because i thought you said we need a big capital to initiate this kind of strategy but maybe that if we are trying this strategy for real because if we are in bad luck that single 3 dollars wont be fun if we loose it at first or second try because we are no more after that .

the total profit you gathered is huge but that wast surprising at all based on how risky your strategy was but this system if perfectly fit for those who want to try their luck or want to try to grew thier small balance as fast as possible

That's because if you follow these leagues long enough you'll view the probabilities differently on some matches and the bookmakers have these tendencies to be less accurate on leagues that are on the lower end compared to the main leagues. Even if they overvalue the odds I don't think they would lose that much money since their profit margin is high enough to cover those mistakes and it doesn't happen very often.

How do you know that alegotardo? Bookmakers odds are based on probabilities, having more chances to win than a casino game for the same odds would mean that bookmakers are constantly overvaluing their odds. It doesn't really make sense since it implies bookmakers would lose money at the end.

That is normal because luck will only come to the right person, making many people can't win on many rounds. The result will vary for every people who use the same strategy. Perhaps, some people can win while others will lose as we don't know where the luck will come. If luck comes, people can win by using many strategies and not just the strategy from @OP. But the system is hard to work for many people as they still need luck to win the match. Perhaps, people need to experiment to see what strategy they can win, so they will know that every gambler's strategy will not be the same.

That applies to every gambling strategy and it's clear that if a system like yours need to be played it would be very important to arrange some risk management plan to define what is the maximum amount we can basically afford to lose. It makes a hug difference to be able to cope with, let's say, a $700 or $7000 loss.
Still, I see your strategy as something I could re-work on my own if I some free time.

A starting bet of $50 is too high and I would never play around with a Martingale system with such stakes. I have placed bets in the past of up to €100 on singles, but that was on matches I was very comfortable betting on for various reasons.

That is usually the case with the top teams in each division. As you move further down the table, the home venue isn't such a deciding factor. That is why you shouldn't pick teams that are too high up on the table.

Roda's last 5 home games:
2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw.

Paris' last 5 home games:
3 wins and 2 draws.
 
You can't make a profit if your winning odds aren't above 2.00. So the odds are of the outmost importance. The aim is to make a profit every time your selected outcome wins.

Consider this:

You bet $3 and your lose.
Next round, you bet $6 and you lose again.
In the third round you have to bet 12$. But if that bet is on a 1.50 odds, you wouldn't have made any profits. You would have a loss of $-3.

If the odds on your 3rd match were 3.00 for example, you would have made a +$15 profit.

It doesn't look like much, but notice in the results how that stake of $3 can quickly become a stake of over $700 if you your have multiple losing rounds in a row.

you have choose good teams, but you cannot guess future based on the past
for me, I think that based on picks that you have to go with lower multiplier, x2 is too much, and it is easy to put it in a spreadsheet, but when you actually bet, it is not easy to put $48 on some team, if your starting bet is $3, it is too much risk for me, also next bet is $96 and than $192, I would not put that one - and all that follows are just wild betting, it is not a system

there is no such thing as connected probability, even after 10 reds - chances for next one to be black are 50%, same as next red (it is pure roulette, but this system is also a roulette gambling)

I agree that it is a good system but I have a hard time going on OP's side about the experiment, I find it lucky which doesn't sit well with me because I have gambled back then not relying on luck but skills so I hope you can understand why I don't like the experiment even though it resulted to something good especially the Sochaux one, that one is a risky bet. I hope that it was the case with OP knowing that he is going to win because the stats seem random at glance. Maybe if other users were to do this experiment on different football league or different sport then I might be able to believe that the system will work.

I think an inexperienced gambler doesn't have to follow what the @OP did, especially if they don't know much about the team. It is good to experiment like @OP did, and I think we can make our experiment that will be different from the @OP.

Perhaps, @OP has the confidence to win in the next match, so he increases the bet amount. I think he already calculates everything so that he can decide like that. I am sure @OP has experience in that, and he can think much before decide, and he knows how to manage the risk.

It might be profitable for OP, I read the stats and I agree it is quiet good of a system, the only problem that I see is the increase in betting increment each time the team loses a match which could be dangerous for any inexperienced bettors. I have to say that it is a good experiment but nothing beats the analysis of a team before betting on or against them.

Its about taking risk and trusting your own system, this is gambling after all and we all have to take the risk to become more profitable. Betting is not easy at all, if you're serious in betting this kind of strategy is good, though for me it takes time and need a lot of work but if you're betting with a huge money, I guess this is worth it. Will, look closely to this strategy and I might follow this one as well because we all want to make money on betting. 

Choosing the teams seems to be the hardest part here and require a bit of knowledge about the league. You have to choose them carefully so the odds will be always above 2x otherwise the strategy will fail.
Also it requires a big bankroll and strong nerves.
Although I was just reading the stats you posted and had nothing to lose, I started paniking when I saw the $768 bet! 

Thanks for sharing Pmalek and congrats on the nice profit.

Kudos Pmalek! It was so amusing to read your OP and the main specs of your experiment, which it looks to have been quite profitable too. I think I had similar ideas in the past but as for many things in my life I lack consistency 
Now in my spare time I'll check to see if some teams like the one youìve picked can be found and start something similar. After all, we are talking $3 to start with.

Wow, this betting system would be nice if executed consecutively and I will really love to participate in this experiment, every experiment is worth trying since starting with little sum of $3 wouldn't be a threat to me

I created similar thread called rollover betting challenge system last year where a particular odd was to be targeted, the challenge I had was inconsistent winning, it doesn't occur all the time, and by that my fund decrease over time, so I stopped.

One of the challenge/flaws I may find with your experiment is that, most time the selected team plays perfectly at home, most teams have many wins and less draws at home ground unlike the opposite, looking at the match history of a club, you'll find out they probably have good outcomes at home ground, I know your aim is about high odds right? So which is necessary, high odds or good outcomes? I prefer good results.

Also this experiment would be best used in high competitive league like that of serie A because of the win and draw options to be at the advantage.

Raising money by half instead of doubling gets you smaller profits but the up side is that after you have lost 10 bets in a row with doubling you have to make 25600$ bet and with raising them by 1.5 you have to make just 1950$ bet, starting bet 50$ in both cases. That mitigates a lot of the problems with martingale system and makes it much more feasible in the long run at least for me.

That is another example how fast martingale systems spin out of control and the reason I am not using them and would never recommend them to anybody. That being said I often double my stake after loosing first ticket in the day but if I lose that one I just take the losses and start fresh next day.

That's very similar to what I wanted to try next. But I didn't consider raising the odds by 1.5, I was thinking of doubling it in a league that statistically has plenty of draws. Thanks for the tip about raising the stake money only by half. I will have to check where it can be applied.

All the odds you see in the 2nd post are for the outcomes I wanted to bet on. It's not the odd of the actual result.

For example:

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

The 3.00 odds wasn't the odds on Paris FC to win the match. Those odds were offered for the draw.

It's very risky and a lot can go wrong, but wow, in your experiment you made an amazing profit! It doesn't mean that this approach would work again, I think, but it's a nice case study. However, you didn't put actual money into it and thus didn't really turn $3 into $1k if I understand correctly. That's the only sad thing about it.
And you were "betting" on the outcome in these rounds, right? It's just that you write the score of every match, but the odds are for the 1x2 outcome, correct?

You should be fine with playing any martingale or any other system as long as you are betting on reputable leagues. You could run into problems if you are betting let's say on Croatian 3rd league since your stake will get limited on most sites. And those limits could ruin your martingale after doubling the stake many times.

If you chose top league like Premier League I am sure you will run out of money much sooner than any reputable site would even think to limit your stakes

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@Pmalek

I actually have one system which works quite well but still it is not something I would recommend for long term. All those systems will work well for some time and you will get modest profits and then it will liquidate you once and you will end with less money than you started with.

It is modified martingale when you bet just on draws and instead of doubling on your stake you raise it by half. You are fine as long as odds are above 3 but you can actually often find odds closer to 4 which helps a lot to raise the profits. Raising your stake by coefficient of 1.5 instead of 2 gives you much more leeway to lose the games without breaking the bank.

You can employ the system on single team like you did and chase that draws, or simply chose few likely games each day and play them in order.

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I don't like Asian bookies since they often make some games void which are paid out normally in all other bookies. Some of them have really strict rules when odds are changing and immediately void your bets. Maybe things changed I have not used them for quite some time.

@tyKiwanuka
Thanks for the list. I took a look at the first link you provided. I recognized Sbobet and Matchbook and I have played on these sites in the past without needing the services of an agent. Maybe things have changed in the meantime.

I was just making assumptions, I don't know if they pay that much attention. But they could notice that you are doubling your stakes on the same teams and for the same type of events, for example. tyKiwanuka says it's not something worth worrying about, so let's trust him that he is right.

Seems like a good strategy, none of the ones I've tried (including Martingale, but not in sports) worked for me. But yours turned out to be effective, probably, because apart from pure luck and doubling after each loss you take odds into consideration combined with the probability of winning, which is why you choose draw and away win.

About that

Can they actually do that? How will the sportsbooks know and, more importantly, how can they prove, that this wasn't your real well-thought choice and you're using patterns? Maybe to avoid this one can select teams from a slightly different position each time (e.g. one time you take 6th and 7th, and the other 5th and 6th, something like that). Surely, that'll shift the odds, but not significantly, so I think that still might work.

Well, they are a bit different to access than your normal bookie nowadays, i.e. the only possibility for the majority of gamblers is via an agent. You can then either make a single account with these bookies, or use some tool the agent provides. Here is some information about it, if you are interested (I am not getting anything for this): https://betinasia.com/black/

This is all fiat-based, though you can deposit with crypto. And KYC is needed at the agent, so it has its disadvantages as well.

Dafabet is an asian bookie, which you can access without an agent: https://www.dafabet.com/en

All in all, this is really for the more advanced and/or high-staking bettors; for most casual/recreational ones, it's probably not worth the effort and the sometimes inconvenience of having a middle-man. And by inconvenience I don't mean your money not being safe, but rather that everything is done via the agent (deposits/withdrawals/communication in case of dispute etc.) - can be weary.

That is the flaw with a system like this. You have to wait otherwise it won't work.

Probably not. Due to the things you mentioned yourself. If I had placed bets on Sochaux, I would have needed a total of $1,533 just to place that last winning bet in round #14 that brought me profit. Before that, 8 matches in a row didn't go the way I would have wanted. Imagine if the bookie limited or blocked my account before round #14, and I had no way to bet on that match? Let's say I get my account unblocked in time for round #15. That match was a loss too! Now I need over $3,000 for the next round. The risks are simply too big.  

I might consider a different approach. I have something else on my mind, but I have to check a couple of leagues to see where it could be applied in the best way.  

Thanks mate!

That's good to know. To be honest I always thought bookies will ban or limit you if you attempt something like this.

I have never played at any Asian bookies. Which of them are good?

Nice thread (we need more of those in here), I always like to follow these things. Not a fan of Martingale, but people are always tempted to try it, because what can go wrong ? You just need stamina, infinite money and nerves of steel I would think it works in (football) betting, but only if you start with very low stakes, very low. But then again you will win very low amounts as well and that is turning off people then again. You always want the big money, eh ? And it has to be safe of course.


I wouldn't worry with that. Since there is no working betting system (other than value), every bookie will happily allow you to play any system you wish on their site. And you shouldn't only use one or two bookmakers for such system anyway. Then you will also not run into the following issue:


First of all, you should always shop for the best odds, having accounts/money in a lot of sites. This is especially important, if you are on a losing streak and your stakes must get higher and higher to compensate earlier losses - a 3.00 or 3.10 makes a huge difference here already. This will always lead you to the big (asian) bookies sooner or later, because they have the best odds and they also have the highest limits. With some agents tools (like Mollybet), you can place big bets with one click in multiple asian books. If that still isn't enough, you can go to Tier2 bookies and continue placing there with lower limits/lower odds.

---

I would probably track some more teams/leagues and don't jump in right away, but let them go on a streak of not drawing at home or winning away and then start the Martingale. Could save you some money or not let your stakes get very high too soon. But not sure

An interesting game system, but even with small stakes requires strong will and perseverance, and of course a lot of money. It is impressive that you made a profit after the experiment, but when betting on Sochaux in round 14 you have a stake of as much as $768.00.

I personally have never experienced the martingale system, honestly the idea of doubling the stakes after each loss was too much for my wallet - because I always played for high stakes. Now that you’ve tried the method with no real stakes, will you perhaps try something similar for real money?

I am liking what I see regarding the numbers.I am strongly astonished to see that teams in lower leagues perform this better.I am also impressed with your system which strangely enough seems to be working good.I am thinking to copy this with lower bets and see how it goes but I am not that patient to wait when the selected teams.

Applying martingale in real events is different from an apply in the casino, betting and losing 10 games in teams that are in the middle of the table would be very very unlucky.
I liked your system... usually, peoples bet on whoever is at the top and the profits of these teams are usually lower since the victory results are more predictable.
Your simulation resulted in a good profit, it really is a good strategy that is worth using if applied carefully.

Good luck!

Like I mentioned in the opening post, I haven't placed these bets. I just documented what could have happened if I did, and what the overall profit/loss would look like. I don't like playing around with systems like this, but I know that some people do.

Regarding your question about online bookies, I prefer betting with FortuneJack and Sportsbet.io. I have never had any issues with either of those except the occasional security check on FJ. That is normal, so I have no reason to change.

It requires a huge bankroll especially when you are betting on multiple teams. In theory, you can lose like 10 matches in a row per team. To continue the system, you are going to need thousands and tens of thousands of $.  

I wish you luck, I don't remember ever seeing a system that was that straightforward, however I'm worried about the fact that you are using martingale and that is because as we know martingale is a system that sooner or later will make you lose money, if your system is truly profitable you will not need any kind of progression for this to eventually show up.

We must remember that even with a winning system if you have subpar skills when it comes to managing your money then you will lose money, as such using martingale is in my mind always a mistake but it is even a bigger one when you actually have an edge because the only thing that you need to become a loser is just a little bit of bad luck, and that happens to everyone and by the time that you realize your mistake it is too late and there is nothing you can do about it.

Nice, your systems seems to be working one and you made a money with it. What online platform do you use to bet?  If you don't have a personal soft spot for any of them, I would suggest you to try the p2p betting bot developed for Obyte client.  I made a ^{simple guide} showing in picture how to use it when betting on sporting event. I think you will like to bet with Obyte's Sport Betting Bot. If you don't want to install Obyte client to interact with  betting bot you may try its ^{Web frontier}.

Paris FC

Round 1
Chambly vs Paris FC 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.75

Round 2
Paris FC vs Valenciennes 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Amiens vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$21.00

Round 4
Paris FC vs Nancy 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 5
Niort vs Paris FC 2:2
Odds: 2.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 7
Paris FC vs Pau FC 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 8
Chateauroux vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 2.30
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$110.40

Round 9
Paris FC vs Caen 3:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Dunkerque vs Paris FC 0:1
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$11.70

Round 11
Paris FC vs Auxerre 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 12
Grenoble vs Paris FC 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 13
Played against Sochaux: 0:0

Round 14
Troyes vs Paris FC 3:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 15
Paris FC vs Rodez 1:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$79.20

Round 16
Clermont vs Paris FC 3:2
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 17
Paris FC vs Guingamp 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 18
Toulouse vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 19
Paris FC vs AC Ajaccio 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$72.00

Round 20
Valenciennes vs Paris FC 2:0
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Paris FC vs Amiens 4:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 22
Nancy vs Paris FC 1:1
 Odds: 2.15
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 23
Paris FC vs Niort 3:3
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$86.40

Round 24
Le Havre vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 2.45
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
Pau FC vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 2.05
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

---

Sochaux

Round 1
Auxerre vs Sochaux 0:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$12.00

Round 2
Sochaux vs Troyes 2:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Toulouse vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 4
Sochaux vs Rodez 2:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: +$34.80

Round 5
AC Ajaccio vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 6
Sochaux vs Chambly 3:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 7
Valenciennes vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.37
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 8
Sochaux vs Amiens 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 9
Guingamp: Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 4.20
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: -$48.00

Round 10
Sochaux vs Niort 3:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $96.00
Profit/Loss: -$96.00

Round 11
Chateauroux vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 2.50
Stake: $192.00
Profit/Loss: -$192.00

Round 12
Sochaux vs Le Havre 4:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $384.00
Profit/Loss: -$384.00

Round 13
Played against Paris FC

Round 14
Sochaux vs Nancy 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $768.00
Profit/Loss: +$2,227.20

Round 15
Pau FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.55
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 16
Sochaux vs Grenoble 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$18.00

Round 17
Caen vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.30

Round 18
Sochaux vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 19
Sochaux vs Clermont 0:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$17.22

Round 20
Troyes vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Sochaux vs Toulouse 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 22
Rodez vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 2.50
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 23
Sochaux vs AC Ajaccio 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 24
Chambly vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2.15
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$103.20

Round 25
Sochaux vs Valenciennes 2:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

---

Nijmegen

Round 1
Cambuur vs Nijmegen 2:0
Odds: 6.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
FC Volendam vs Nijmegen 1:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$19.50

Round 3
Nijmegen vs Jong Ajax 2:1
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 4
Nijmegen vs Almere 0:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 5
Graafschap vs Nijmegen 2:0
Odds: 4.33
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 6
Nijmegen vs Eindhoven 6:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 7
Jong PSV vs Nijmegen 1:1
Odds: 1.57
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: -$48.00

Round 8
Jong Utrecht vs Nijmegen 1:4
Odds: 1.90
Stake: $96.00
Profit/Loss: +$182.40

Round 9
Nijmegen vs G.A. Eagles 2:1
Odds: 1.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Breda vs Nijmegen 0:1
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$24.00

Round 11
Nijmegen vs Helmond 2:2
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$14.25

Round 12
Jong AZ vs Nijmegen 0:3
Odds: 2.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$6.90

Round 13
Played against Roda 1:1

Round 14
Nijmegen vs Maastricht 2:1
Odds: 6.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Den Bosch vs Nijmegen 2:2
Odds: 1.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 16
Dordrecht vs Nijmegen 1:2
Odds: 1.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: +$16.80

Round 17
Nijmegen vs FC Oss 0:1
Odds: 4.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Telstar vs Nijmegen 5:2
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 19
Nijmegen vs Excelsior 3:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 20
Nijmegen vs Cambuur 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$81.60

Round 21
Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 0:1
Odds: 2.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$6.75

Round 22
Nijmegen vs Jong Utrecht 2:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 23
Maastricht vs Nijmegen 2:1
Odds: 1.61
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

---

Roda

Round 1
Jong Ajax vs Roda 0:4
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$12.00

Round 2
Roda vs FC Oss 3:0
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Graafschap vs Roda 4:0
Odds: 5.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 4
Roda vs Dordrecht 4:0
Odds: 5.50
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 5
Eindhoven vs Roda 3:3
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 6
Roda vs FC Volendam 1:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$180.00

Round 7
Almere vs Roda 2:1
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 8
Roda vs Telstar 1:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$22.80

Round 9
Cambuur vs Roda 3:0
Odds: 8.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Roda vs Den Bosch 0:0
Odds: 4.50
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$27.00

Round 11
Jong Utrecht vs Roda 2:0
Odds: 2.37
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 12
Roda vs Maastricht 2:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 13
Played against Nijmegen

Round 14
Roda vs Excelsior 3:1
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 15
Jong PSV vs Roda 1:1
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 16
Roda vs Helmond 2:2
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$182.40

Round 17
Roda vs G.A. Eagles 0:3
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Jong AZ vs Roda 0:1
Odds: 1.85
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$11.10

Round 19
Breda vs Roda 2:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 20
Roda vs Graafschap 1:3
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 21
Roda vs Jong Utrecht 2:1
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 22
Dordrecht vs Roda 0:5
Odds: 1.60
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$38.40

Round 23
Roda vs Jong PSV 5:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 24
Excelsior vs Roda 1:3
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$17.22

---

This is an experiment of what would happen if I followed a specific system in my sports gambling. I haven’t tried it out in practice or used it with real money bets. I wanted to see how profitable it could be to select a few teams and gamble on the same outcomes for those teams every time.

My choice fell on 2 teams from the French Ligue 2 and 2 from the Dutch Eerste Divisie. All teams play in the second divisions of their respective leagues.

The selected teams:

•   Paris FC
•   Sochaux
•   Nijmegen
•   Roda

Why these teams and leagues?

I wanted to perform the experiment with relatively well-positioned teams on the table but not positioned too high to always be considered favourites. The teams need to win enough matches in a league season but not be top of their leagues. Otherwise, the odds wouldn’t be favourable.

I selected teams positioned in the 6th and 7th place in their leagues when this experiment began. You can see from the screenshots below how the league tables looked a few days ago.




I choose these two leagues because there are often surprises. Many unexpected results and the favourites don’t always win.

The betting system

The rules are very simple:

•   Every time the selected teams play at home, I bet on a draw (X).
•   When they play away, I bet on an away win (2).
•   If the selection losses, I double the stakes for their next match. I continue to double the stakes until the team wins.
•   If the team wins, the cycle restarts and I bet the initial stake amount.
•   When two teams from the same leagues play against each other, I skip that match, and I don’t bet.

Why these selections?

Because of the odds. This betting system is nothing new, and it’s known as the Martingale system. We need odds of 2.00 or higher to be profitable. Betting on draws and away wins usually have higher odds compared to home wins. Especially if the teams aren’t league favourites (that’s why I choose teams from the upper part of the league tables).

Are there any risks with this system?

Of course, there are. You need a lot of money to buy yourself out of trouble every time your teams lose. You may experience 5 or 10 losses in a row. There are no guarantees you will win – it’s all based on luck, after all.

Another risk is that sportsbooks can ban or limit your account if they notice known gambling patterns. You should also check if using known betting systems is legal and allowed according to your bookies TOS. I don’t know if bookie’s do that and how often.

You need to consider if the sportsbook you are using has a maximum betting limit for that particular league you have selected. Maybe your bookie allows no bets above $100 for these leagues or any other league you decide to try it on. In that case, you will run into problems if you need to double your bet from $100 to $200.

How I choose to bet, and what profit/losses did I make?

-   My initial stake was $3.
-   I have compiled a list with all my teams' results for the entire 2020/2021 season.
-   A profit/loss count is found after each round. The odds were taken from a local live score https://www.rezultati.com/. I think they use bet365 as a reference for their odds. The good thing is that the odds on crypto bookies are higher than on bet365 and many other fiat bookies.
-   All posted odds were taken from rezultati.com for the X or 2 betting selection, respectively.
-   All results were taken from that site and compared with official stats at https://keukenkampioendivisie.nl/ and https://www.ligue2.fr/. 

You can see the results and the overall profits of how it could have looked if I actually placed these bets in the next post.


THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!