Topic: my guess for the rest of the year (Read 1001 times)
Wrong! We've just had a number of corrections during the last couple months, albeit small ones. Due to strong fundamentals, bitcoin has nowhere to go but up from now on. If you are waiting for the drop to the $100 or below, you WILL be waiting forever, because it AIN'T coming back!
For the time being I would say we're in the positive in the short term but I think we are headed for a correction if not a massive one between late Dec.-Feb.You just have to look closely at the news.
OK. Not bad analysis.
If I had no coins and a pile of fiat I would ladder orders on Bitstamp in the $85 to $105 range for a couple of months, adjusting upwards after that time if not filled. Personally, I consider that BTC will not dip below $100 in 2014, so the window to buy below that level is disappearing fast.
If I had no coins and a pile of fiat I would ladder orders on Bitstamp in the $85 to $105 range for a couple of months, adjusting upwards after that time if not filled. Personally, I consider that BTC will not dip below $100 in 2014, so the window to buy below that level is disappearing fast.
I am bullish for the rest of the year.
but this recent price spike was too fast. I sense a correction, as people figure out how to cash out their BTC.
but I feel we are finally just now beginning to see the effects of heightened chinese awareness (these things take time).
the gox cashout situation is only temporary, if gox doesn't come back something will replace it.
and as we speak regulators and government officials and such are taking a good hard look at bitcoin. this is going to increase its legitimacy.
I mean, look at the recent whale buy. that probably happened from bitcoin being in the news recently due to those new york subpoenas. and today there was something about the foundation meeting with the fbi.
like the china effect, imo, this won't sink in until later in the rest of the year.
with these forces pushing it, I think another bubble is possible with the right chain of bullish events. 40% likelihood of that happening, and if that happens the price will go sky high.
but if that doesn't happen here's my predictions: correction short term for the here and now. perhaps down to 110 or back to 100. followed by a gradual ascent back to 120, then as the year goes on the price continues to creep higher, correcting where necessary, rising to 150ish by next spring. if a bubble hasn't happened yet, by this time one should be imminent and steam continues to build, unless something crazy and unpredictable happens that causes people to go all bearish. 130-135 around december-january. late february early april if something bullish hasn't already sparked a bubble, one should be ripe.
I know that in the past, bubbles were spaced out a few years apart. but more and more people are starting to learn about bitcoin. this effect is exponential, it will shorten the time between bubbles until the market cap has grown and the price is less volatile.
please note: I have no idea what I'm doing. all numbers are pulled out of my ass. The market probably won't do this. please dont put money in my ideas. im just posting this for fun, to look back on in january next year and see if my complete guesses were anywhere near close.
but this recent price spike was too fast. I sense a correction, as people figure out how to cash out their BTC.
but I feel we are finally just now beginning to see the effects of heightened chinese awareness (these things take time).
the gox cashout situation is only temporary, if gox doesn't come back something will replace it.
and as we speak regulators and government officials and such are taking a good hard look at bitcoin. this is going to increase its legitimacy.
I mean, look at the recent whale buy. that probably happened from bitcoin being in the news recently due to those new york subpoenas. and today there was something about the foundation meeting with the fbi.
like the china effect, imo, this won't sink in until later in the rest of the year.
with these forces pushing it, I think another bubble is possible with the right chain of bullish events. 40% likelihood of that happening, and if that happens the price will go sky high.
but if that doesn't happen here's my predictions: correction short term for the here and now. perhaps down to 110 or back to 100. followed by a gradual ascent back to 120, then as the year goes on the price continues to creep higher, correcting where necessary, rising to 150ish by next spring. if a bubble hasn't happened yet, by this time one should be imminent and steam continues to build, unless something crazy and unpredictable happens that causes people to go all bearish. 130-135 around december-january. late february early april if something bullish hasn't already sparked a bubble, one should be ripe.
I know that in the past, bubbles were spaced out a few years apart. but more and more people are starting to learn about bitcoin. this effect is exponential, it will shorten the time between bubbles until the market cap has grown and the price is less volatile.
please note: I have no idea what I'm doing. all numbers are pulled out of my ass. The market probably won't do this. please dont put money in my ideas. im just posting this for fun, to look back on in january next year and see if my complete guesses were anywhere near close.
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