Topic: my new diff thread covers Oct 23 to nov 5? +0.033% to +1.16% ? (Read 3426 times)

At mods I know this will clog spec page, but I kind of want to have these in order as they are really good history info.

 too many quotes on this post  but I see a real problem with that article.  

Why build .2w miners if you can do .1 watt miners   looks to me that they would suffer a crushing blow if the day the .2 watt miners are put online coins shrink to

 150usd.    

 Seems to me if they can make .2 in jan or feb

  then make .1 in july  they are double spending their research money and doing it into a really tight market.  BTW   that article is almost 2 months old.

My guess is .2 watts comes in Apr-May  and .1 in 2017  if the game is not dead.

also deep in the article they mention 2x every 6-12 months     my guess is 12 months not 6 months.

All this is based on btc prices at 300-350 usd.  I am certain they would go faster if btc prices were 1000.

There is a few generations left before this. 

The thing they can do is find lowest price electricity, and possibly with cool to cold ambient.   I think location of mining center is something that will be a determining factor in some operations.  If they find perfect place they can use that for generations.

He is a bit of a optimist but that .2w/ghs is much dreamy! like 2016 dream!

Keep dreaming.

All of this becomes irrelevant when Bitfury (and whoever else) brings their .2w/GHs miners online and doesn't make them available for purchase by the general public.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140915005202/en/BitFury-Announces-Technology-Roadmap-Sustained-Industry-Leadership#.VFlR72K9KSO

I WOULD love a bear run with coins dropping to 150 usd.

 On a completely different front  zen/gaw is going to launch hashcoin. 

I no longer have much invested with them but this new 'coin'  could do real damage to btc. I will keep an eye on their launch but I won't have much invested with them well under 500 usd .

5% grow would sure be healthier than 10% for bitcoin, but as I don't care big companies's interests (and I'll do every little thing against them), I don't think a single company bother any other's interests. They simply can't make a cartel, so the only way left is to fight each other, and this is what they'r doing now.
I think HW sell volume will soon drop, and at that time the next show will start

One of my points  described exactly as I think the big companies should look at.

Or here is another way Sep 25 , 2014 Diff = 34,661   Nov 4 , 2014 Diff = 39,500  that is after this evening's jump   this will be 3 jumps over 40 days with the avg of

about 4.5%.

Those numbers will make them rich with less risk. They will also allow the business to last longer.

 So the best interests for the big companies is less then 5% growth.

My assumptions are simple   :

1) btc price is at the 300-350 usd level.
2) growth needs to be under 5%

Just here to remind 1 sure thing......people that won in the past are those who mined in moderate way - near at loss and not who spread terahashes only when $/BTC rose.
Mining isn't done to be always a sure gain, and depending on price fluctuations (f.ex. 50-100$/btc) , expecting a scenario where big farms could be forced to slow down, is not so crazy. Of course small miners will be in same (or worste) situation, but I remind you that operative costs are much more sustainable for them than the farms.
Farms are taking a high risk, very difficult to estimate.

Great logic there dumbfck. You must be right.... and if you're not, that means big miners are just stupid.... wow..


What makes you think noone knows how to run business but you, the armchair CEO of Bullshit Inc?

Ever heard of this saying: If i meet an asshole in the morning, hes an asshole. If i meet  assholes all day, i'm an asshole ?

You keep making predictions which was worse than flipping a coin, yet you claim thats because others dont know how to run their businesses.... LOL yup, everyone is a moron except you.

This might be a cheap shot but if you don't know how to place your decimal point for 5 cents then you are not good at calculating. $0.05 = 5 cents.  you wrote $.5 which is 50 cents lol

  well look miners that did not register the business and scored in the bull runs of april 2013 and nov 2013 may have saved thousands in taxes.  They may hang in a long time at a loss if they are not high scale.

A USA home like mine can do 6k-watts with no issues.

 I have gas heat for every 1k of mining I drop my heating bill 20 usd.  At 10 cents a kwatt I spend 72 usd in electrical power.  take the 20 bucks off in my gas bill  I spend 52 usd per k-watt-month .

A new data center spending 5 cents a kwatt  uses 36 usd per k-watt month.

So it looks like they have a 16 usd a month edge per k-watt.   Now remember my whole point is don't grow much.  You point is the should grow due to the power edge and price for the gear edge.

 My cost for the building = 0
They are expanding so they need to rent more space build more space lease more space.

My cost for psu's = 0 I have enough to run 6kwatts

They need psu's say 2k surplus hp servers cost to set up 1 to run 4 s-3's = 100 usd

They need 24/7 guards/workers.  say 1 per 8 hours now becomes 2 per 8 hours.

 They can't beat a small guy as easy as you think. 
They run a crazy big risk coins drop from 320 to 200

So my 7 s-3  miner 2800 watt 3.5 th farm doubles to 14 s-3's 5600 watt 7.th  cost   7 x 200= 1400 usd .  not much risk for 2x my hash.

The data center builder  gets 1ph to 2ph. he is usa  based. buys 500 s-4's pays cheap 500,000

 1000 each shipped.   he actually paid 50 cents a gh.   my ebay price of 200 an s-3 is 40 cents a gh.

So to make it better use asicminer's long tube.

 lets give the guy a deal 320,000  usd for 1 ph or 32 cents a gh.  he needs 700 units to do 1ph so 700 server psu's 50 bucks each = 35000 he is now at 355,000 for 1 ph or 35.5 cents vs my 40 cents.

he need workers,  he needs a good internet setup .

  so to start his new 1ph mining he pays 50 cents vs my 40 cents a gh.
 he then gains on his 5 cents vs my 10 cents for power. 

this is my point large expansion is very hard for him.  his startup costs are higher then mine .  and he faces destruction if coins drop to 200 usd.

If I was wrong the slow growth would have never happened over the last 150 days

 But you can write how they will expand if you want to.
 BTW just because my way is economically correct does not mean people will follow or believe it.

You also forgot one thing. Not all home miners register their mining business. I would argue most of them are still considering mining "hobby". Thus they're not able to claim any loss. Guess who would be able to stand the storm?

Fact: home miner will drop out due to MUCH higher electrical rate and sustainability of negative cash flow.

Big miners can sustain the negative cash flow and claim loss to their fical yr taxation.
 

Businesses care about cashflow, only that.

As long as their cash flow is positive, it doesnt matter if your setup cost is lower (which you dont even know for sure).

Answer yourself this: would you mine at lost (negative cashflow) even if you get the miner at $0 ?

Now regarding about " wiring cost/setup cost" Work it out to $/GHs in addition of having miner at cost not retail like you did, you will see how dumb your argument is.



This is why i called this forum is full of idiots. Go ahead with your "guesses", business is like a gamble to you.

I'm in same boat as you.  I can expand with current electrical.  Even have a building or two left.... I finnaly ran out of my stash of PSU's so I would have to buy those.  And it' winter so I can use air outside for free / super cheap cooling.   And cameras and security is already set up.

Miner cost for them is at a discount (most companies at least).  They save on shipping as they go by pallet.  Some even can drive truck loads from manufacture to data center (look at china). 

Each has it's pros and cons.  I think the big data center has biggest advantage (and they have huge capital in most cases).   I do not think home mining is dead though.  For the lucky its alive.  Now those who pay vat and huge electricity I would agree they are dead, unless hosting somewhere.

yes but they pay to set the gear up wire the place cool the place.

 coins dropped from 1150 to 310 even lower 289 a few weeks ago.  we all know they (data centers) have a big edge.  but 300-330 usd a coin is close to an edge/cliff for them that I don't face if I double my capacity.

If I go from 6 to 12 s-3's my cost for setup is $0 above my price for the s-3's

if a big farm goes from 1 to 2 ph   yeah they get a good price on the s-3 better then me but they have to do setup and 1ph in s-3's = 2000 s-3's  or 700 asic miner long tubes .  

 I have psu's paid for on hand they don't.

 All easy for them to do  these outlays when coins are 500 usd at 320 usd not easy.  the coins drop to 200 from 320 and they die. me I am out 6 x 200 = 1200 bucks.  

  oh big farms don't pay .5 a kwatt they pay .04-.06 a kwatt.

 but that is just the power not the wires the psu's the rent the cooling the salaries.

 So I know where you are coining from. it is hard for the little guy to compete.

BTW you are  amazing when it comes to the insults and rudeness you display from thread to thread. Have to hand it to you.

 

Dumbest shit i've heard

You talk like the difference in electrical rate is marginal.

Home miners pay avg at $.10/KWh

Mega farms pay avg at $.5/kKWh.

Good luck with your wishing noob

One thing though is a lot of the corporate miners have great power prices.  Even though miners like me have good prices, these corporations have a advantage of putting their data center in very low electricity.

I do agree low price will cause R+D of them to slow down.   They will be much less likely to throw a few million at a new chip if price is so low.

When the price declines far enough, the big mining operations will be the first to slow down/stop their expansion. I would say that at-home miners likely have higher electric costs then the big mining farms, however they also are less aware of the breakeven price that bitcoin needs to trade at in order for it to be worth it for them to continue to mine. As a result, the corporate miners will likely start to take their miners offline (and attempt to liquidate) their miners as the price of bitcoin approaches their breakeven point

Sadly i think home miners will hurt worse then most big mining operations.  I have winter that will help.   Decent priced electric, with quite a bit open to expand still.

I agree it was unusual, but the previous 2 were very low.  I think we will find a common ground between theGue 2's and 10's.  What that is depends on how many operation go online.   Guess we will find out in a week or so and have a good idea.

yeah thats right and when btc drops to 200 usd they  go fully red and belly up.

I never said they won't expand I just say they will expand very slowly.  The 10 % you see is the exception under 5 or 6 will be more common.

Next gen ASIC is claimed to be 0.2w/GHs (SP). 700PH is entirely possible. To to mention i know some mega miners are expanding with 3 cents per KWh contract. They will keep expanding to get a bigger pie. Only idiots like OP keep using "bitcoin calculator" with wrong variable.

When the difficulty hits 50B at current tech & current avg watts, big players will start thinking about calling a world-wide truce. Hashrate will top out somewhere after 400PH and well before 700PH unless someone invents a quantum miner.....

okay so 300 per 1th is possible. and some have 6 cent power.  look at these figures the margins are razor tight. margins are so tight for miners almost no one can buy a miner at 300 a th installed that has 6 cent power .  

and for the ones that do have this 6 cent power and can install 1th miners at 300 usd each.  they have to have 6% growth rate and coins stable at 320 usd to make money.

 and as notlist3d pointed out  the current 10% jump kills everyone if we pop 10% 5x in a row no one will mine at a profit. so my premise is restriction of gear is in the builders interest more then the  small home miners

Ouch this one is going to hurt.

it's a fucking race to 2016! some of them are racing to 2020!
what if they calculate theyr profits with 13%increase in difficulty, and they can go all the way to 2020?

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,698,674,929 (+10.32%)

I am afraid you're wrong on this. If you take it from business point of view, if you offered someone (investor) 100% p.a. return, they would go crazy after it. If you manage to buy 1TH at $300 (should be no problem in large scales at all), get electricity at $0.05 kWh and burn 0.5W/GHs, you have all your money back +100% within 1 year even at 5% per difficulty growth and what is important positive cash flow even at difficulty 150 millions. So you have a lot of space to play with btc price vulnerabities etc. Main problem with this setup would be reward halving in August 2016, which is the only point I expect the difficulty to drop and it's probably final calculation point for all these projects.

So imagine how many people can have the same idea. There will probably not many able to collect $10 mil but if someone succeeds you have 30PH/s growth here and there from time to time.
It has nothing with chip producers IMHO. They just want to make money, not stay in the game by NOT producing.

The manufacturers? How about hyenas? Hungry hyenas wanting a slice of the pie? And newer hyenas comming in!

What if the cost of a 1th/s miner is only 100bucks for them???

Another shit pulled from your ass?

Dumbshit, do you ever think having the best electrical rate means all these new miners will be out of commissions very soon?

Here is the scheme: sell as much miners NOW as they can (even if its just breakeven or low margin, let the idiots think they might have a chance of ROI), use sales revenue to ramp up farms capacities which pay 2-4cent/KWh, while the avg mining cost is still 8cent/KWh.

Yeah looks like their bottom line is even sweeter....

 

That is correct they have no incentive to raise growth to 10%.(with current btc price).

As it  Hurts their bottom line if they want to continue to stay in the game.

I dont have an agenda. Do you?

Because you keep making stupid guesses. Look at all the shit the manufacturer has been selling recently, all sold out. Meanwhile, you dumbshit are still claiming...."no more incentive for big players to produce more miners"

hitting 10% in 12hours?

So pleasant today.  Good morning to you.  Well coins dropped to 320 usd today.


 I did  two things  this morning;

I purchased an antminer s-3 for 222.22 usd pre  discount after discount 201 usd .

I also purchased 0.5 btc at 323 usd a btc

And what did the big guys do overnight . I don't know do you? A small drop in diff overnight 7.5 to 6.5 %

  How was your investing did you do any serious moves with coins?


Hint my agenda is very simple.  I just point out that the sky is not falling. 

 What is your agenda my friend?

 BTC is dead?  Mining is dead?  please tell us.

BTW I will be starting a new diff thread on NOV 5 -7 when the next jumps happens. 

Do you know what the definition of insanity?

Repeating the samething and expect different results.

You keep using current BTC price and saying " risk is far too high" LOL yet you dont even know their reward. Stupid fck. Sounds like you just pull shit out of your ass.... but then call it "math".

I can bang my drum as loud and often as you do my lovely  friend.  I don't guess I use simple principles of cost accounting as do the 5 top asic builders.

It is really simple they will not build out like mad they do the math I do. At 300-350 the risk to build is far too high. They will continue slow growth

thats my drum and I am banging it my friend.

Another useless thread of " i think big players have no reason to expand ...."

OP, arent you tired of playing the same drum? Its like watching a monkey playing guitar hero.

Here is the fact: guessing network difficulty is pointless. Only need to look at the avg operating cost

while some may think or predict 10%

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   35985640265

Estimated   37766338259 in 704 blks

comes to 4.94 %

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,985,640,265

Estimated Next Difficulty:   38,680,200,371 (+7.49%)

both are under  10%

frankly we all know big builders are expanding . I can tell you this if we shift to a  10%  jump we are in for very interesting times.

Maybe just maybe someone has made a .2 watt machine.

Looks like another +10% massacre this period
http://nextdifficulty.com/

 Thread locked  look for a new one soon!!

running from 0.033% to 1.16%

I still see no reason for builders to push for more data centers

 With current coinbase price at $363 usd a coin

building bigger data centers have big downsides. 1 good price drop under 200 and the big guy will be seriously set back.

I wonder how long we stay at 300-400 btc price

because at that price growth will be very low.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,985,640,265
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,402,957,513 (+1.16%)
Adjust time:   After 1961 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):   259,882,798 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   13:40 (5.2 minutes ago)



http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
.033 %

Blocks   326647
Total BTC   13.416M
 
Difficulty   35985640265
Estimated   35997038050 in 1961 blks
 
Network total   267760.088 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.31 / 570 s