Topic: My Optimistic Prediction for the Decade (Read 1307 times)

Right, but a fool and his money are easily parted.  The world has enough fools that the institutional investors wield crazy amounts of capital.

What is the big deal with institutional investors? An institutional investor is just someone, with or without investment power, that has convinced you and a few others to give him your money, and that he is so smart that even if he takes a cut from everybody, the remaining profit is still bigger than you can produce yourself.

I have no idea on numbers, but I would think by 2022 the price will still be higher than $35. The 2022 price could still be high compared to now, but way below whatever the new all-time high will be between now and 2022.

Towards the end, I think.  Institutional investors won't be long now.  So, what, like $35 in 2022, then slow, steady growth?

Broader market conditions seem extremely favorable to Bitcoin at the moment. The Fed's ultra easy money policy will fuel another asset bubble, with artificially low interest rates allowing a lot of potential startups to borrow money for new business ventures. Institutional investors will see the overoptimistic growth predictions in these startups and look to pump money into them. Whoever is invested in these emerging markets will likely make a lot of money within the next 5 years. What will be the largest, most speculative, most credit-fueled emerging market? You guessed it: Bitcoin.

The catch is that in accordance with Austrian Business Cycle Theory, a lot of these new Bitcoin business that emerge will not properly reflect consumer preferences. The easy credit from the Fed will cause substantial malinvestment, and a lot of the new Bitcoin businesses will fail after the Bitcoin market inevitably crashes. I'm going to arbitrarily predict that the crash will occur near the end of the current decade. Chances are that the price of Bitcoin will crash too. But in the 2020s, after the junk is cleaned out, stable growth of the Bitcoin market will resume. The point is, to an optimist like myself, we are the "smart money" in the following chart:



Institutional investors have yet to participate in the market. In fact, almost no one even knows what Bitcoin is. So it's possible that there is a great deal of money to be made. Best of luck.