Topic: My poker thread. (Read 72 times)

Well, here I will be updating statistics, putting hands and commenting some things.

Today I wanted to comment on a hand that has left me thinking



Opponent is aggressive, 29/21, 10 for 3bet, AF 4 and 58 steal from BU.

I pay with JQo, standard, for 3bet I prefer them suited and even in that case I would balance, sometimes making 3 bet and sometimes calling.

The flop I play check raise due the opponent's small bet because there is a flush draw. When he pays, I reduce his range to qx, 5x, flush draws, that I think is the most likely, and some low pairs that do not quite believe the raise, as 66-99.

When I bet on the turn and he pays I reduce the range to a completed flush, 5x and some qx. Mainly hands that beat mine.

The doubt I had was if it was not better to check call on the turn, because betting after the raise only gets me paid with hands that beat me and I make fold his bluffs, but on the other hand if I do not bet I do not know where I am and that kind of rival if he bluffs me on the turn, he will bluff me again on the river and playing check call I can not narrow the range as efficiently as betting.

Edit: Given the success of the thread, which has not elicited a single response, I am locking it.

I have decided to open this thread that I had been thinking about doing for a while and never decided until today.

I recently changed sites and I'm in a little upswing. I also have a new database, so I decided to open the thread.



The hands correspond to about 20 hours of play in NL25 NLHE 6-max, which comes out to just over 20bb/100 of EV generated, which is unsustainable, but seeing the field I would expect to be a winner at about 8bb/100 in the long run.

What I am going to say I have commented in other threads but in case someone does not know me or has not read it, I repeat it here.

I started playing over 10 years ago now, starting at micro-limits, levels NL2, NL5 FR. I played fixed limit at the beginning, some 5 card draw and omaha. Then switched to NLHE SH. One season I was in the mood to change  and I played sit and goes for more than a year and in the end I quit because of the variance: the last 6 months I was in clear EV profit but break even in real profit, with a difference of about 100 buy-ins. There was no way to win flips in bubble. The maximum level I played at the time when I was a winner was NL100, but for a few years now I've been stuck at levels between NL25-50 HLHE 6-max mainly making an extra income of a few hundred on average per month.

I could try to climb more, but at the beginning I did not do it because I preferred to ensure the extra income instead of climbing levels and now that I have a more comfortable economic position, I am lazy because the poker tables are getting harder and harder and I do not see a great ROI. I prefer to dedicate my time to other things. Apart from the fact that some time ago I could see that in NL100 I won less than half bb/100 as in NL50, in a sample of more than 50k hands for both levels, which does not compensate. It could have been due to variance, but the sample was not small, and one has to play where it is most profitable.

Anyway, I will update the thread from time to time and all comments or constructive doubts are welcome.