I predict that bitcoin price will slowly decrease over the next 3 - 6 months hitting some low of $50 maybe even lower with some panic selling going on. This will continue until the hash rate of bitcoin stabilizes. At that time, the price will start creeping back up for a while before experiencing another bubble. This will happen in the next 12-16 months where the new floor will be in a higher tier, maybe in the 300 - 500 range.
A few things to consider:
1) Right now coins are flooding the market. All these new mining machines that are getting shipped need to be paid for. If I were mining off a huge debt I would most likely be trying to recoup my initial investment asap after getting the new machine.
2) This is causing some fear in the market which is causing others to lose faith and reduce their positions in the market.
3) as soon as the hash rate stabilizes, this basically means most people have gotten their asics by now. Many people have been paid back. I think at this point, I would switch my strategy back to holding.
4) By this point the price has dropped and hits a bottom where it looks like its going to start going back up. Lots of people who were lurking will start buying back in increasing their positions.
5) By this time, all the people who lost faith last time will realize its a good time to get back in.
6) Repeat the last bubble but with bigger money coming in. More business is established, laws are made clear, the bitcoin economy works better each time this happens.
7) mania kicks in and we see another bubble. Soon the mining reward will get cut in half. The reality of how scarce coins are really starts to take hold. Shit gets crazy.
Thoughts?
A few things to consider:
1) Right now coins are flooding the market. All these new mining machines that are getting shipped need to be paid for. If I were mining off a huge debt I would most likely be trying to recoup my initial investment asap after getting the new machine.
2) This is causing some fear in the market which is causing others to lose faith and reduce their positions in the market.
3) as soon as the hash rate stabilizes, this basically means most people have gotten their asics by now. Many people have been paid back. I think at this point, I would switch my strategy back to holding.
4) By this point the price has dropped and hits a bottom where it looks like its going to start going back up. Lots of people who were lurking will start buying back in increasing their positions.
5) By this time, all the people who lost faith last time will realize its a good time to get back in.
6) Repeat the last bubble but with bigger money coming in. More business is established, laws are made clear, the bitcoin economy works better each time this happens.
7) mania kicks in and we see another bubble. Soon the mining reward will get cut in half. The reality of how scarce coins are really starts to take hold. Shit gets crazy.
Thoughts?
trend down = sell
trend up = buy
that simple.
