Update: Mt. Gox is officially dead.
Put the word "officially" in anything you say and you will instantly become professional and trustworthy. 
Topic: My prediction for a comeback (Read 1742 times)
as long as we stay above $266 I remain bullish.
Personally I would never put that much money into any exchange to begin with. I have a decent amount invested but I'm not gonna lose the farm if something tanks. I know prices are dropping pretty low right now but just try to remind yourself how volatile this market is. It's insane. There will be ups and downs, but do yourself a favor and HOLD. Seriously, Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. At least give it a couple more months. See if I'm right about the next bubble 
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.
Who can really trust any exchange at this point?
It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.
I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.
I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.
If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.
Who can really trust any exchange at this point?
It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.
I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.
I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.
If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.
Update: Mt. Gox is officially dead. Start watching for the rebound. If the price/BTC exceeds the pre-mt.goxbullshit average of around $800 the bubble has started. Sell as soon as you see a worthwhile profit, because the "pop" will sneak up on you.
you say that the price will "return to normal value." What is your assessment of what the "normal value" of 1 btc? By the sound of your post, it seems like you are meaning that the ATH is the normal value?
Sorry, normal is the wrong word there. I just consider the price with Mt. Gox weighing it down to be abnormal. Basically whatever number we land at when the Mt. Gox situation is done would be "normal." 2 month's after that, I think we'll start to see a bubble.
you say that the price will "return to normal value." What is your assessment of what the "normal value" of 1 btc? By the sound of your post, it seems like you are meaning that the ATH is the normal value?
According to your chart, we should have bubble 7 before bubble 6, correct?
Hey all, just wanted to share my theories on what could happen in the next couple months. My belief is that most of Bitcoin's price increases are self fueled. The media is a key factor in this process but is not what initiates price increases. Not as of yet, anyways.
Read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25332746
To me it's obvious that Bitcoin has too much momentum as of now to be stopped. Even with the markets incredible volatility, and the slump we're in now. I think a full comeback is pretty much guaranteed. There's just too much hype. The only reason the price is down right now is Mt. Gox and thats it. Once that mess it sorted out, I believe we're actually due for another bubble to start up. After Mt. Gox dies off or gets sorted out or whatever, the media will draw positive attention to Bitcoin's return to normal price on other exchanges. Then, just like before, more people will invest, more people will speculate, the bubble will grow, the bubble will pop. That's pretty much whats been happening this whole time anyways.
Remember that we've gone through price declines of this magnitude plenty of time's in the past. Since December 13, 2014 we've seen a 43% decrease in price, with ups and downs in between. But let's not forget about all the other times we've seen price decreases much much worse. April 10, 2013, a 61% decrease in price. We didn't think we were coming back from that but hey. Look where we went. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustrated-history-of-bitcoin-crashes/)
This decrease is for a strictly temporary reason as well. Mt. Gox is temporary. Someone will be along to replace them, people will move on. No doubt it's a setback for all of Bitcoin, but a comeback is almost definitely happening.
If the bubbles are on any sort of schedule at all, I think the next one will start in about 2.5 months. I used google trends as an indicator of interest and media attention, and put that on a graph of the bitcoin price. The graph is from Coinbase. The green is the bitcoin price and the blue dotted is the google trends. It's nothing crazy, but I think it serves the purpose. You should look at it as the media/interest dependent on the price of Bitcoin, NOT the price of Bitcoin dependent on the media/interest.
http://i57.tinypic.com/30j20zt.jpg
So in summary, don't worry (except for Mt. Gox users, shoutout to you guys). The price will rebound from Mt. Gox, and soon after we should see a bubble occur. The bubble, I think, will happen give or take 2.5 months after this rebound. So definitely some sort of sustaining price increase by early April, save any more Mt. Gox cluster fuckings.
Read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25332746
To me it's obvious that Bitcoin has too much momentum as of now to be stopped. Even with the markets incredible volatility, and the slump we're in now. I think a full comeback is pretty much guaranteed. There's just too much hype. The only reason the price is down right now is Mt. Gox and thats it. Once that mess it sorted out, I believe we're actually due for another bubble to start up. After Mt. Gox dies off or gets sorted out or whatever, the media will draw positive attention to Bitcoin's return to normal price on other exchanges. Then, just like before, more people will invest, more people will speculate, the bubble will grow, the bubble will pop. That's pretty much whats been happening this whole time anyways.
Remember that we've gone through price declines of this magnitude plenty of time's in the past. Since December 13, 2014 we've seen a 43% decrease in price, with ups and downs in between. But let's not forget about all the other times we've seen price decreases much much worse. April 10, 2013, a 61% decrease in price. We didn't think we were coming back from that but hey. Look where we went. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustrated-history-of-bitcoin-crashes/)
This decrease is for a strictly temporary reason as well. Mt. Gox is temporary. Someone will be along to replace them, people will move on. No doubt it's a setback for all of Bitcoin, but a comeback is almost definitely happening.
If the bubbles are on any sort of schedule at all, I think the next one will start in about 2.5 months. I used google trends as an indicator of interest and media attention, and put that on a graph of the bitcoin price. The graph is from Coinbase. The green is the bitcoin price and the blue dotted is the google trends. It's nothing crazy, but I think it serves the purpose. You should look at it as the media/interest dependent on the price of Bitcoin, NOT the price of Bitcoin dependent on the media/interest.
http://i57.tinypic.com/30j20zt.jpg
So in summary, don't worry (except for Mt. Gox users, shoutout to you guys). The price will rebound from Mt. Gox, and soon after we should see a bubble occur. The bubble, I think, will happen give or take 2.5 months after this rebound. So definitely some sort of sustaining price increase by early April, save any more Mt. Gox cluster fuckings.
Jump to: