Topic: My Situation: Mining LTC now and After Halving. Looking like meh! Take Poll! (Read 543 times)

As of 8/27/2019.

This is how nuts stuff is yet for LTC/Scrypt Mining ASIC equipment.

Innsolicon A6+ with the PSU. This at 2.2gh at 2100 watts. At $3,000.00 USD.

https://www.innosilicon.com/html/a6+-miner/index.html

So using www.litecoinpool.org/calc with NO fee and payout of 103% to figure see results below:

The A6+ at 2.2gh at 2100 watts at 10c kWh at the current price of $72.79

for Litecoin. With NO underclocking/under-voltage, you get this:

                    Profitability Analysis
                           Expected Rewards          Cost     Net Profit
24 hours0.05026406 LTC   3.66 USD              5.04 USD    -1.38 USD
7 days   0.35184842 LTC   25.61 USD           35.28 USD     -9.67 USD
30 days   1.50792179 LTC   109.76 USD        151.20 USD   -41.44 USD

Innsolicon A6 with the PSU. This at 1.23gh at 1500 watts. At $2,000.00 USD.

https://www.innosilicon.com/html/a6-miner/index.html

So using www.litecoinpool.org/calc with NO fee and payout of 103% to figure below:

The A6 at 1.23 and 1500 watts at 10c kWh at the current price of $72.79

for Litecoin. With NO underclocking/under-voltage, you get this:

                      Profitability Analysis
                Expected Rewards           Costs         Net Profit
24 hours0.02810218 LTC   2.05 USD   3.60 USD   -1.55 USD
7 days   0.19671525 LTC   14.32 USD   25.20 USD   -10.88 USD
30 days   0.84306536 LTC   61.37 USD   108.00 USD -46.63 USD

This is without the coming 32.7% tariffs and import taxes in the USA!

Just thought this was so ugly, I had to share it. Also, looking at above,

if you have 1/2 of the electric costs of say 5c kWh, you still are underwater

on a 50% cut on the above in profits on this date. 8/27/19.

Yech!

Brad

Well. I should just HODL the LTC I have I guess.

Right now what you say is almost impossible to do mining, assuming what you say comes to pass, it is likely better just for me to sell crap in the attic (attic mining) on eBay and convert

to LTC (or whatever) then get a miner at this point.

Below is mining LTC alone on underclocked L3+'s on www.litecoinpool.org/calc

2 L3+'s to a Bitmain PSU 1600 PSU

700mh

1400 watts

10c kWh at $75.44 LTC price

Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01590738 LTC   1.20 USD   3.36 USD    -2.16 USD
7 days   0.11135164 LTC   8.40 USD   23.52 USD   -15.12 USD
30 days   0.47722131 LTC   36.00 USD   100.80 USD -64.80 USD


above at 8c kWh at $75.44 LTC price

Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01590738 LTC   1.20 USD   2.69 USD   -1.49 USD
7 days   0.11135164 LTC   8.40 USD   18.82 USD   -10.42 USD
30 days   0.47722131 LTC   36.00 USD   80.64 USD   -44.64 USD

at 6c kWh at $75.44 LTC price

Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01590738 LTC   1.20 USD   2.02 USD   -0.82 USD
7 days   0.11135164 LTC   8.40 USD   14.11 USD   -5.71 USD
30 days   0.47722131 LTC   36.00 USD   60.48 USD   -24.48 USD

at 4c kWh at $75.44 LTC price

Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01590738 LTC   1.20 USD   1.34 USD   -0.14 USD
7 days   0.11135164 LTC   8.40 USD   9.41 USD   -1.01 USD
30 days   0.47722131 LTC   36.00 USD   40.32 USD   -4.32 USD

at 3.5c kWh at $75.44 LTC price (this breaks even at 2c a day profit vs electric)

Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01590738 LTC   1.20 USD   1.18 USD   0.02 USD
7 days   0.11135164 LTC   8.40 USD   8.23 USD   0.17 USD
30 days   0.47722131 LTC   36.00 USD   35.28 USD   0.72 USD

So hell, 3.5c kWh for 72c a month profit over electric for 2 underclocked L3+'s?

sh*t

So I understand your point on the mining of LTC, but hell, better off just selling stuff around here from the attic and 'attic mine' to eBay. A pain in the ass, but at least

if something sells on eBay I probably for the hassle would get more than 2c a friggin day!  (again at the above 3.5c kWh)

Unsure how to get such a deal on 50/50 with a hosting place. I am fairly sure, that IF the hosting place is in the red he no longer does the 50/50 at his end, that would

be silly.

As to the more better Innsilicon units, they never frigging ROI at this point at these prices and of course the good old pre-orders now at 120 days. Also, notice the same

tricks on China ETA of Jan 2020 for some. They 'rarely' get equipment out in China around Jan/Feb of whatever year with taking a week off for the Chinese New Years,

so even cutting them a break, whatever a China Manufacturer says in that Jan 2020 timeline, I'd add at least 1 month. Seems always the case from past sales in this timeline.

Again, I understand where you are coming from, price vs LTC you can get.

But it is bad enough that math does not work with equipment anymore only buying and HODL...with some risk.

(again, my previous Voskcoin video slam'ing LTC on above post)

The real question is, with I think it was 97% of code just being modified by bitcoin core devs to LTC code and the upstarts of ETH and BCH and BSV.

Perhaps this lazzie-faire way of promoting and just following BTC as it is just does not cut it anymore and LTC is losing adoption to the above BTC clones and ETH.

So unless LTC really pulls out something on github as they state and/or do Mimblewimble for privacy (something bitcoin core has refused to do) and differentiate

themselves from BTC in some manner and show some dev progress.

Well, I too was around from 2013 onward and got a lot of LTC, but ordered the KNC Titan back in the day when 'briefly' LTC was over $10 ..then I got the unit(s) and

difficulty dumped as you say and the last man standing was these 'overpriced' (12K) scrypt-pow Titan Miners. Which I mined as you say a lot of LTC (which I converted

to BTC) because all the equipment makers at that $10 to $1.80 price pulled their units..so it was pretty much the only game in town. KNC titans with flat difficulty.

My tag line for 2015 was something like 'My Never to ROI piece of sh*t overpriced KNC Titans' or some such.

So sure, I could get a big ass 11k unit again from Innsilocon or whatever, and 'hope' nothing else comes down the pike for equipment...

but the odds are long indeed at the above return for L3+'s or any LTC equipment, especially with the 25.7% tariff.

below is from

Innosilicon A4+ LTCMaster
   
Nov 2017
   
620Mh/s
   
750W
   
80db
   
Scrypt
   
-$0.77/day
Bitmain Antminer L3+ (504Mh)
   
Jun 2017
   
504Mh/s
   
800W
   
70db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.08/day
FusionSilicon X6 Miner
   
Aug 2018
   
860Mh/s
   
1079W
   
72db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.16/day
Bitmain Antminer L3+ (600Mh)
   
Oct 2017
   
600Mh/s
   
850W
   
75db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.19/day
Bitmain Antminer L3++ (580Mh)
   
May 2018
   
580Mh/s
   
942W
   
76db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.30/day
BW L21
   
Jan 2018
   
550Mh/s
   
950W
   
75db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.37/day
Innosilicon A6+ LTCMaster
   
Mar 2019
   
2.2Gh/s
   
2100W
   
82db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.38/day
Bitmain Antminer L3++ (596Mh)
   
May 2018
   
596Mh/s
   
1050W
   
70db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.53/day
Innosilicon A6 LTCMaster
   
Jan 2018
   
1.23Gh/s
   
1500W
   
82db
   
Scrypt
   
-$1.55/day
Innosilicon A4 Dominator
   
Jul 2017
   
280Mh/s
   
1050W
   
75db
   
Scrypt
   
-$2.05/day

The above is from https://www.asicminervalue.com/

these are stock speeds but still sucks and at 10c kWh.

Scrypt-Pow equipment is just not possible, IMHO, at this point in time.

So I'd better see some REAL frigging github progress as Charlie Lee and LTC Foundation have stated and see Mimblewimble as they have claimed within a few months,

or I will simply call it noise.

This from my position of Moderator on www.litecointalk.io for crying out loud! This is in no way looks in any way as less than an epic cluster for LTC and

probably will determine how it survives as a legit top 25 coin in the next few months.

I'm talking before Jan of 2020 some real progress, if it is same old same old up till then, well, the price at that point will reflect this coin dying IMHO.

Brad

Ive obviously been in the scrypt scene for a while so ill weigh in my 2 cents.

We are repeating the 2014-2017 cycle to the tee. We are already 30% down in hash power since peak, so same equipment is now only producing 20% less litecoins than they were before the halving. The halving has not pained the big boys yet since most of them are contract based. Once those expire or its time to renew power leases all remaining huge L3 farms that dont have free power will shutdown.

Anyone that has A6s or my Apollos will be producing more Litecoin in the coming months after the halving than before by end of the year. The only farms that can operate at scale at this point are the ones running in the 1W/MH range, which is only Apollos, A6s, and Shitmains internal L5s at this point.

I know most people can't see it, but these are the glory days of mining, when you can accumulate a lot of cheap Litecoins, and we will probably be in this phase for another year if history continues to repeat itself before the next cycle starts.

Stop looking at what litecoin is worth vs fiat, and start looking at how much extra coin you are now mining off the same equipment. The only thing that matters is how many Litecoins you have, not how much they are worth today.

Thank you for sharing that. I have never had the chance to mine good coins. I tried mining testnet before and smaller coins (plus a lot of staking POS but that does not count at all) and the experience was fun, but I can imagine how stressful it can be when you have to think of cost and profit,,, so my respect to all of you guys who even try to mine.

I think now people are bearing the pain of low price but if you can manage to hodl as much as you can, $150 is very likely IMO.

I point 11 gh and pay 1/2 the coins to my hosteer.

So I have 5.5 gh. For free and paid off.  When 1/2 ink happened we dropped to .16667 ltc a day from .3333 ltc a day.  We are up to .21 ltc a day.  This will go higher and diff will drop more.

The beauty of a 50 - 50 coin  deal  is I make money on losing coins like the ltc with a L3+

The downside is mining with a s17 pro as the hoster makes out on that gear.

I have to balance with some shit gear on shit coins as the gear is dirt cheap.

So some s9s and some L3+ Stick around.

  I have 700 th in modern  sha256
 I have 210 th in old sha 256
 I have 11 gh in L3+

I can be picky when I buy as we turn profit.

So I mostly now look for new gear at a decent price.  Maybe some Avalon a1066 will come soon. I hope.

I would love to get 5 of them.

Just some things on mining LTC that are just not possible anymore in the USA at these prices.

Again, many people have said this on Bitcointalk, I'm hardly the first, but no LTC mining for me seems likely, no matter what the

price of electric until way into 2020 from what I can tell.

1) My Xcel Electic in the Midwest USA says that they have 10.3c kWh power. After fees/taxes/etc. When you divide your 'true'

electric bill into the total kWh used. The 'real' price for electric 'residential' is actual as of last month, $17.59c kWh. So beware of

stated electric use. Residential is out.  Electric costs, I'm still beyond screwed in the USA. The best rates in the USA for the data hall option,

I can get currently comes out between 9.5c and 10c kWh.

This is at my current data hall and when you add shipping my stuff to a new data hall at a lower rate of electric, with setup fees (usually $50 a unit).

At least in the 6-month short term, it all comes out in the wash about 9.5c-10c kWh averaged out and not worth the hassle of moving. Again, IMHO.

2) The USA the 25.7%  (tariff and import fees) until that goes away, we are sunk.

3) Thus (see above) prices for equipment is way, way too high for the current LTC and any crypto prices for the coin, IMHO.

4) the length of time for pre-order, according to Philipma1957 and others now common 120 days.

5) The lack of movement on Litecoin Development and LTC prices are in the dumps. See the below video from Voskcoin. He is brutal on LTC's prospects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFiE4wkDvt0  I'd add to this rant that unless LTC gets Mimblewimble it is all over for this coin.

So like Voskcoin says in the above video, does not look good for long term prospects for LTC mining, no long Meh! now looks more like Groan!

So yeah, likely 2020 IF this coin can compete against BSV and BCH, as the silver to Bitcoin gold, it may be 2020 at best and/or never before I get

another LTC miner, again, if ever!

Brad

I think both coins have a future and in fact although I am mining ethereum I always exchange a big part of it to Litecoin.I always believed in this crypto but the fact is that it is stuck from some time in a low range.I think that halving will not play a big role as it has not done so in the king of cryptos,Bitcoin.

I get free electricity but I don't think ltc has much of a future, I would rather just stick with ethereum for now.

Brings to mind another angle I forgot about from Maxumark on here in Bitcointalk.

I will preface with this. The 'rumor' is and seems to be borne out that the Litecoin L5+ was never released in the USA to consumers in general.

The 'assumption' was it was only used for Bitmain and its 'cloud mining'.

So that begs a further question, is the pump in all ASIC miners crypto prices and the pushing of pre-orders from 2-4 months and other silliness

due to the result of countries like Venezuela and North Korea and/or other states, BUYING, hash power to move into USD $$$ with sanctions, etc?

Or a more likely version of above. Venezuela using LOCAL currency to pay for 'cheap' (I think it is 1c kWh?) electric and thus mining like hell to get

around sanctions, due to the crummy fiat they have? You can expand on this and saying anyone in a high inflation country with low electric is balls

to the wall buying equipment and/or simply buying as much cloud hashing as possible from cloud miners like Bitmain, to move as much currency as they can?

But yeah, above, that is the rub.

How the hell, in a dump situation price-wise is everything ASIC equipment-wise in full boat FOMO, like we are in a pump?

It is befuddling.

I doubt above is true on cloud mining.

But in the spirit of being confused on every area of Crypto, I thought this should be mentioned.

Perhaps that is where the equipment is going? A run on cloud mining?

Brad

I have seen some info on L5+ it does 1 watt a mg. The best from inno is the a6+ it does around 1 watt a th so 11gh would be 11 kwatts. Or 11 x 24=264 kwatts that is 9 bucks for 3.5 cent power and you cheat only 6 usd a day. This would be if you had 5x a6+ at a cost of 3000 each so you would have paid 15000 for the miners to clear 6 usd a day.  Yet the pricing in the A6+ stays at 3000 each. At six usd profit it will take 2500 days to pay the A6+ off.

What about the other elephant in the room, concerning BTC/LTC and/or crypto Bitmain miners of any flavor? There massive presence?

The fact that, again, guess, IMHO, Bitmain L3+'s account for about say (guess) 65% of all scrypt-pow miners?

The other 'shoe to drop' is that Bitmain sha-256 products still running at say an S9 or below account for about 40% say of sha-256.

If any of the above is even close. The difficulty will get to a point someday with either, that you will see large amounts of the network

drop off at the same time vs difficulty/price and electric costs. There are consequences for this concentration of Bitmain units in the future.

Then difficulty drops, they all turn on again, it difficulty goes back up because these units all jump on again,

they all shut off again and yo/yo for a couple of months, till the all fade away. My fear at a continuing cost to the price of crypto in the dumps.

With the lack of viable (again IMHO) cost-effective new equipment worth getting vs difficulty vs electric costs etc and the current prices of all crypto be it BTC/LTC/or any flavor.

We could have a perfect storm where, due to the price of crypto and above large swaths of crypto Bitmain equipment mostly, would all dump, at the

same time with the effects I state above. Which brings us right back to, whatever crypto you HODL, mine, or whatever, adoption of coin as relates to price.

Worst of all possible worlds, because if big data hall in the USA you dump your crypto of choice to pay for the building payments and other stuff,

even if you have shut say your Bitmain L3+'s off. You sell your hoard of whatever you are mining along with a mass of others to get things

paid-up and or wrap'd up with this 'mining' hit you've taken.

Which would further cause the price to dump, even if difficulty went down?

It is not like everyone (again, IMHO) is gonna rush out and get any scrypt-pow newer (by a bit)  miners at this time to compensate. Not with the (again, IMHO)

unfathomable 30-40% price rise (I don't understand, the equipment makers act like we are in a crypto pump) nor the now 3-4 month pre-order game again!

Again, IF, my assumptions are right and Bitmain Data Hall and other Miners (as of now scrypt-pow)

are scrambling to fix/pay/clean up their affairs by all these Bitmain L3+'s dumping out of the network of any scrypt-pow coin.

You can make the same point eventually with a large amount of Bitmain Sha-256 units, eventually, having the same

effect and splash when their time comes. So depending on how far they are in the hole on all this majority of Bitmain equipment of any flavor,

a lot of otherwise reasonable miner types could dump, because they have to at prices they really, don't want to, because they can't HODL, due

to there over-bought from one Mfg: Bitmain units. All at the worse time, price wise, acting as a perfect storm and driving the price further down, down, down.

Yech, scared self!

So yeah, we need a safe-haven, recovery, via adoption, in some manner on LTC in particular (most vulnerable L3+'s IMHO) or things could accelerate downward

much, much more rapidly, then folks expect big time in the short-term till the end of the year. Again, IMHO.

Specifically, the large amount of shutting off scrypt-pow wise of Bitmain L3's and L3+'s. Pray to the ASIC gods for 'adoption' big time I guess!

yech!

Anyway, again, I type as fast as I think, therefore, probably not as articulate as I could be. But folks get the point of what could accelerate things worse, unless

we get some price relief. Again, IMHO, above say $115 USD for LTC in particular.

Again, so my guesses go on this clusterf**k as I watch in dismay from the sidelines.

Then again, perhaps this above is all being taken care off by massive ASIC equipment sales of new equipment in non-Tariff and non-VAT countries in East Asia, say,

with cheap 4-5c kWh electric too boot. Perhaps all the manufacturers of any particular ASIC equipment of any flavor are getting slammed for orders. Thus the 40%

price rise on such FOMO and/or further being slam'd and thus moving pre-orders on top of this from 2 months to 4 months.  A guy can hope this is the case, but

I'm not counting on it. That is how this is 'supposed' to work when ASIC equipment falls off the network, at least in the past, but unsure about this time.

end of rant

later

Brad

Many people have said it will all end up being commercial Mining large scale.

So 3 to 5 cent miner with the l3+

Does what.  We have 11 gh at Clifton it makes .19 to .20 ltc a day

At 75 bucks an ltc that is 15 dollars.

We use 17000 watts or 17 x 24 = 408 kwatts a day to earn 15 dollars.

At 3 cent power that is 12.24
At 4 cent power that is 16.32 or loser
At 5 cent power that is 20.40 of loser

So we should see a big tank in diff coming right up on ltc.

Well, IMHO, the ASIC manufacturers for some reason decided to (even before when crypto was flat and not going down 10% like this week) think it was OK to

do the following:

1) Up, the price by 25% or more on any ASIC'S of any flavor crypto. All the major guys did this, more or less at the same time.

2) Make their previously 2-month pre-orders stretch into 4 months or more. Most common now is Dec 2019 but a lot state it as an ETA and put down Jan 2020.

So, the 'market' has to be coming from someplace. Even if it is in full FOMO mode, the manufacturer's would not be doing this, at this time of crypto prices,

especially, unless they had a big market for their products and pre-orders.

I just don't get it. Usually, this kind of action is based on a pump in crypto prices in a big way, in that this does not seem the case, I can only guess that it

is due to high electric costs in the USA and elsewhere (Summer rates). 10c kWh doesn't cut it anymore at these electric prices and crypto prices.

So I can only assume the FOMO is coming from countries with really cheap electric and no tariff issues piling on at this point in time and the ASIC manufacturer's

are trying to catch up and can't. Thus the price rise on equipment and the pushing out of pre-order delivery.

Anyway, any better data feel free to drop a line on this thread, especially if you are from a country that does have cheap electric and/or no VAT or TARIFF or

whatever. Also, to see if my view is correct from someplace in East Asia as an example with hosting! (heh...every scammer now is gonna plug me on Bitcointalk)

I suppose if the BTC price and Altcoin prices now go up by 50% or some such, I will have my answer (the usual a lot of people are smarter than me and foresaw this)

seems like a hell of a risky action from the manufacturer's end, UNLESS, they have a hell of a lot of demand yet. IMHO.

Chump or Champ we will be the first to know!

Brad

Yes not easy to find under 8c kWh in europe either. Scandinavia we running 6.5c/kWh (euro and summertime) and no VAT need to pay from orders that comes outside EU when you make order as company but if you dont have company then you need to pay VAT of course.. Anyway hard times indeed for many of us miners... North Russia have some cheap places, but Russia is always big questionmark.

Some further thoughts as I went off tangent in another thread and off topic...but here it is.

Discussion of in the USA of complete (no hidden fees) most data halls run into the 10c kWh range. My data hall is the same and legit.

This is a concern because I know Voskcoin (see youtube videos) is somewhat out of ASIC mining till 2020 and new equipment (even without tariff I assume)

Also, Philipma1957 is also out, he stated, till probably 2020 also.

I know Voskcoin told me he was at 8c kWh so my thoughts are going in below post

that my current 'legit' all fees/taxes/etc of 9.5-10c kWh, don't really float the boat anymore. (some variance summer rates here).


Yeah, well my current Data Hall is almost exactly the same 9.5c kWh and again, not looking good.

I guess we need to find someone honest with hosting in East Asia, that can also get around the USA tariffs.

Anything above 8c kWh is not worth the risk, and by the time the BTC and altcoin prices are worth the risk, the difficulty will likely level it all out again to meh!

As far as the current dismal prices goes for altcoins or any crypto, this goes for BTC pow mining and also LTC or altcoin mining of any flavor with any equipment.

The equipment makers of any flavor ASIC miner, have all shot their equipment prices of such way, way

up and put pre-orders way, way, out. Some even into January 2020! Most are now December 2019!

Remember, the reason, IMHO, that Innsolicon and Bitmain and others have suddenly raised prices on their equipment, both Bitcoin and Altcoins, is that

there is a SURGE of buying such equipment in places other than the USA (tariffs) and the EU (VAT) and other countries of the like.

Thus, there is a huge run, again, IMHO, in East Asia and the non-tariff/vat countries on equipment for their large data halls/etc.

 Also, these countries, DO a lot of them have under 6c kWh and way under 8c kWh electric or they have sweetheart deals of 50/50 split on any flavor of coin POW mining.

One side supplies the equip and the other side supplies the electric (wink/wink) and off you go. This is very common bleed off on hydroelectric that your utility

otherwise can't use, so what the heck. win/win. Burn it off with a 'handshake' deal with an ASIC maker like Bitmain or whatever. Even would get more profit, likely,

in an East Asia country other than China, at this point in time, even at these crypto prices.

Again, IMHO, it is the ONLY thing that makes sense with the price increases and large pre-order times.

Add to that If I am paying say (offered this) a T30 at 2,200 watts Innsolicon BTC Miner for $950 including shipping to my data hall. You add the tariff in the USA

and that is (sorry FedEx/UPS/DHL all seem to add the $50 shipping to the tariff even though they should not) comes out to a real cost to me in the USA of $1,212.20.

This better at the now current thru December 2019 tariff of 27.6% with import fee, rather than the 37.6% previously proposed tariff increase in September 1st,

2019, but still way out of reach. Especially with the 10% plus downturn in BTC prices and or same for altcoin prices.

So again, kinda off topic using a BTC miner, but this is the best offer I've found.

Looking at this from the other direction. JUST HOW MANY of these puppies are selling out in East Asia, if my theory is correct, at $900 bucks plus shipping?

Likely, less, if they are being sold to me before tariff charges? I mean, for the equipment makers (ASIC) to push out pre-orders and raise prices this is usually

just seen in a crypto/altcoin price pump! So there has to be demand from someplace in the world, again, IMHO it is East Asia.

ugly indeed, this is for us not from East Asia, again IMHO.

So something IMHO is going on with ASIC makers of any flavor be it LTC/BTC or whatever. There is no way IMHO, that these price rises and these pre-orders

pushed out recently on ASIC equipment to DEC 2019 and/or mostly JAN 2020, makes any sense unless all ASIC units of any flavor are being snapped up in

large amounts in places that don't have a VAT (EU) or TARIFF (USA) and also to compensate for difficulty for all crypto, cheap, cheap, cheap electric way under

8c kWh!

I really, really, can't see the equipment makers, based on the price of even last weeks crypto, raising prices and pushing dubious pre-orders, unless even at these crypto prices,

there was not a huge demand from someplace. They could be betting on a pump, they could be betting on cheap electric, new hosting at new places in the world and/or

of course no VAT or pesky TARIFF.

But as they say, something is fishy.

Anyway, my take on this at this time. Most of the above are supposition, but still, there is some reason for these events. This is just beyond weird.

This is my best guess, from seeing such games in the past from 2013. Something is up, but alas, not allowed on the playground at this ASIC equipment

prices and/or electric prices. Better just to buy you coin of choice of any flavor altcoin or BTC.

But why I think I may just have to wait till 2020 if/when this all shakes out, tariff included.

end of rant

later

brad

Well, to me the real elephant in the room is the amount of scrypt-pow miners that are Bitmain L3+ types. That one mnfg has, IMHO, about 70-80% of all scrypt-pow miners.

Thus, they will ALL GO OFF at the same time, if, the price does not make it up for LTC or other scrypt-pow coins.

An example is, with current LTC difficulty we will need $200 LTC for a miner at whatever electric kWh per hour to make what he did at $100 LTC. We currently at $89.20

as stated in a previous post, at the last halving LTC was the same price more or less 1.5 years later from the August 2015 halving.

So let's say we get $200 or even $300 coin at this difficulty. All that means is 70% of the equip turns back on.

The catch is, at these prices even if the other 30% that can mine because of really low electric per kWh or that have more modern scrypt-pow miners for LTC

or other coins. The price is so depressed, probably, from the Bitmain L3+ folk dumping to pay off data halls and real-life stuff..no traction at all.

So hard to see how this is gonna shake out even with say an over $200 pump on LTC when all that means is 70% of previous miners turn the stuff back on.

We could yo/you like that for months.

IF you think that LTC will hover around $100 (or the equivalent of mining before halving at $50 price then equivalent) NO ONE is gonna mine LTC at that price

even if you do have a more modern scrypt-pow miner. The catch is the coins scrypt-pow now that are not LTC would be so overwhelmed from that other

30% scrypt-pow miners (rather than LTC) they would be saturated as well.

we need mimblewimble or something innovative ASAP, but with current gov't climate, I kinda doubt that LTC will even implement mimblewimble now.

hell, we are looking at the worst of all worlds, way too low a price, way, way too high difficulty, BTC pulling more and more at over 65% market share and climbing

and the fact that existing scrypt-pow miners on the edge of doorstop status is about 70% of the market.

sh*t scared myself

brad

The numbers do look bad, but there are a few options to maybe soften the situation. And I don't see them taken into consideration, do I miss something?
Whattomine shows a few Scrypt coins with better profitability than Litecoin. They can be an option (I know, it comes with some risk), especially if (most probably) halving doesn't come with a sudden doubling of the price.
Also I guess that there are coins you could merge mine on Scrypt to get a few extra cents (not much, but it can make a difference).

Yeah, the old summer rates at 11c a kWh, don't seem to make a world of 'hoot' now.

FUN, FUN (not) when Halving comes around, that is if you have anything less than (equivalent speed/power equip) Bitmain L3+ Miner, and hell, at this

LTC difficulty, what would you need then?

$200 LTC to make what you'd have made at $100 LTC. (In my case at 11c kWh...that would be nada!)

Looking like the horse is trying to catch up to the runaway cart, rather than vice versa!

So I'm playing Submarine now, so folks with L3+'s on now, so at halving does that mean folk mining at these LTC prices and getting, say

8c kWh are gonna play 'submarine' with me too?

Dubious! Too many Bitmain L3+ Toasters/too little price for LTC/halving/electric rates/Ack!

Crypto: Always Drama!

Brad

ltc dropped to 91 bucks

I suspect the hash is coming from the partnership Bitmain and others with China Hyrdro Electric Utilities. They have a massive surplus of water to electricity more than they can use

for the summer..Bitmain has units OFF in that can't afford electric prices. Thus I heard it will be a 50/50 split with the hydroelectric utilities thru the summer and until the

water dries up (excess hydroelectric capacity) and Bitmain and other 'big boys' in China's last big push of difficulty upward ..then they shut all this extra mining off and walk.

By then of course, regular miners will be so far behind the LTC and pow-scrypt curve it really, really won't be worth running them, ie ..could be the last hurrah before scrypt-pow

doorstops. Damn hard to compete against. I run my miners on your hydroelectric excess for free this summer and split coin 50/50. Also, the equipment by Bitmain and others

before this arrangement was likely OFF anyway and/or paid for, so win/win/win.

This is how all such things work. Bitmain is 'evil'. It is like people forget all those 'evil genius's of our youth in cartoons'. This is the same as what a 'cartoon evil villain' would do.

It is like, really, did you learn nothing at the age of 6 years! Slacker! This is what 'evil corporations' of any flavor do!

Anyway, my guess on where it is coming from at least for a month or so past halving if not longer, depending on how profitable this partnership is

brad

Really curious to see where all this hash is coming from. I imagine we should see about a 10-15% drop in hash after halving, however I suspect much of the hash that has come online over the past month are the new L5s and Inno scrypt miners. So I guess once those miners go up for sale the word "new" will be used very loosely.

after fees and shipping and install..the ones i see actually cost 11c kWh

thus the stuff in the data hall are just sitting there off

look closely, what they say is 8c kWh often turns into 10c kWh and above after fees and summer rates

the other trick is to say the yearly ave is 8c and such to get under 10c kWh

but yeah, send me some links, I've not found any places where it pays to ship them from the current data hall to the new data hall

w/o it all being the same in the wash

also at 100 buck LTC it likely is moot anyway (today's price)

brad

edit: also of course with HALVING in less than 30 days or so. Ack! (That boat may have sailed)

this is pretty much the truth.

Why are you colo mining asics at 11 cents? thats a ripoff   Send your miners else where with 8 cents or lower

I believe a little before september when sec comes into play, cryptocoins will start rising again, so around 60 days or so and next year will follow the growth, by next year i believe btc will hit 23k or so and ltc usually follows btc.

Well, what looks like an apocalyptic episode for scrypt-pow mining (as it relates to electric use in your area) At least in the Upper Central Midwest, where I am at!

What the hell happens, IF, the price does not reach a point where it makes sense for Bitmain L3+ units (say 75% of which are doing most of all scrypt-pow coins now) (my guess)

CAN't make it, in the sense of price to mine at this difficulty vs electric costs?

So, the halving comes, no real price increase to compensate and these Bitmain L3+ miners go OFF...

Indeed, miners of a newer scrypt-pow generation would just kill at that point. Maybe. Unless the result is a downward spiral of those dumping Bitmain L3+'s and there

LTC and scrypt-pow coins in a scramble to pay bills or drive down equipment or data hall debt. etc.

However, AS to ths newer stuff than the Bitmain L3+'s..the minority of miners, I would suspect those would be 'mitigated' by all those previous L3+ miners,

dumping mass amounts of crypto to cover losses, clean up debt to the data hall

etc. Thus dumping the LTC and otherScrypt-Pow prices even further. This could be a really, really bad cycle of events downward, the price was for all scrypt-pow altcoins, crashing.
 
It could get really ugly, really quick and at the worst of times, with BTC taking more and more market share. I think it is 65% now vs Altcoins.

This, of course, is how it is supposed to work, miners become outdated vs difficulty and price and electric prices.

But, this  seems a case where it is not in anyway gradual, could conspire to go 'poof' on this Bitmain L3+ equipment like really, really fast, with all the vectors

of scrypt-pow prices/difficulty/and BTC dominance. The speed of this happening is what I find that could be amazing, it litterally could be as fast as the next

bill cycle to the electric utility and everyone 'blam' turns the 'switch' off at the same time.

Anyway, not liking the direction this is going, with the above combinations. Also I"m guessing on above, but makes me feel 'sketchy' even more on my LTC and altcoin HODL.

I'm out of home mining it seems for good as an aside.

MY electric (HOME) is now Minnesota (Xcel) is going to be with summer rates around 17c kWh.

The data Hall in Iowa is also getting hit. 11c kWh Summer Rates.

 So, my Bitmain L3+'s are turned off at that site yet, as not worth turning back on yet.

Again, just saying, the trends above could be coinciding to drive equip/price down and difficulty going down may not keep up with those who are left

in scrypt-pow mining. The Bitmain L3+ units as the majority of units out there, could just plain 'take everyone with them' as they go off and the depending

on how much the operators DUMP their LTC and Altcoins, this could be a very bad downward cycle. And quick as *f*ck*.

Also, the LTC halving MAY not be a lot of help in price. Look at 2015 halving for LTC and see the months it took for that to

change prices and pump LTC. I think it was like a 1 year and 5 months or some such. Damn, re-read above, not a lot of encouragement.

Not looking likely that my Bitmain L3+'s will ever be turned back on. (Have to keep equip to keep IRS happy for equip depreciation or will get ding'd..ie. doorstops)

Crypto: Always Drama!

later

Brad

Somewhere out there are a whole bunch of Innosilicon A6+ units being hoarded by a few very lucky people.

bump.

(because thread moved to the proper area by moderators. thanks)

Reserved.

This is for ANY Altcoin to show how you are 'gettng by' or 'not' mining with ASIC's or Whatever.

My example is below for Litecoin Bitmain L3+ Machines at a data hall at 11c kWh Summer Rates. (Ack! That sucks big time!)

So where I'm at with mining as of now, for mining Litecoin, per se. Before and After Halving.

Litecoin better beat $150 after the Litecoin halving or all 'heck' is gonna break loose, IMHO. A whole lot of sideways running out of desperation, even at that rate, after halving.

Right now, if you assume my 'guess' of all the equipment in the world that mines Litecoin that is still up 75% is Bitmain L3+ type units (or equivalent). Vary my guess down or up

by anything you think appropriate, looking at the below calculator. Again, this is just a guess.

Using www.litecointalk.org/calc which is a 'free pool with no fees' and pays now 101% LTC payout.

You get the following for a 'stock' (you are a bit better off underclocking...but will not show that here) Bitmain L3+ Miner.

I am using the following 500mh at 800 watts at 11c kWh (Summer rates in data hall in the USA Midwest, for me anyway) at the current price of $121 USD per Litecoin.

-11c a day. (damn that is ugly) or -$3.20 per month. (1c makes a difference at 10c kWh it would be 9c a day or +2.56 a month profit...damn you, Summer Rates!

Days before halving of Litecoin as of now: https://www.litecoinblockhalf.com/ or less than a month. 27days 20hrs as of now.

500mh
800 watts
11c kWh (Summer Rates for 4.5 months yet I think it is here)
at $121 Litecoin USD price.
Assuming, of course, the difficulty is flat.


                            Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01657349 LTC   2.01 USD   2.11 USD   -0.11 USD
7 days   0.11601444 LTC   14.04 USD   14.78 USD   -0.75 USD
30 days   0.49720474 LTC   60.16 USD   63.36 USD   -3.20 USD

What you would need for a Litecoin Price AFTER HALVING to make the same meager amount of money as of today. To make even a LITTLE BIT of profit.

500mh
800 watts
11c kWh
at $150 Litecoin USD price.
Assuming, of course, the difficulty is flat.

Days after the halving of Litecoin as of now

                                   Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01657349 LTC   2.49 USD   2.11 USD   0.37 USD
7 days   0.11601444 LTC   17.40 USD   14.78 USD   2.62 USD
30 days   0.49720474 LTC   74.58 USD   63.36 USD   11.22 USD

37c a day. (still meh!) or +$11/22 USD per month.

So, from my 11c kWh point of view, and Bitmain L3+'s being 'tail end charlie' as far as efficiency miners at the back of the pack now.

The "worst"? we are looking at with $150 USD and say difficulty flat is kinda more of the same. Keeping the doors on the data hall open and kinda 'meh!'

Others with like 6c kWh rates etc are laughing their ass off at me. But that is the math, for the Midwest USA and Summer Rate increases. This is about 11c kWh rate.

I don't see a lot of miners (if my assumption of Bitmain L3+'s still hanging on and being 75% of stuff mining yet is correct). Anyway, not a lot of miners will drop,

the difficulty will go sideways, and what? 6 more months of meh! as it is?

So sh*t has to come back in a big way. If the price of Litecoin was to dump to say $100 USD, IMHO. That 75% of Bitmain L3+ units would then drop off the network

and likely the remainder of generations above the L3+ could do well.

But just saying, if I assume again, that everything that can run from the Bitmain L3+ on up, and that difficulty is high and gonna go sideways because of everything

that can be on, is on. Then the above meh! may be in our future.

Hoping, Mimblewimble and the halving will solve some of this. But I looked at the last halving and found the following.

Litecoin price on 9/8/15 price of LTC was $3.90 Price of LTC on 7/8/17 was $3.77. So the halving does not mean much. That was after 1 year and 11 months! More

or less after the last Litecoin Halving.

So yeah, altcoins, including Litecoin better come back in a big way, or this will really, really suck!

Take the Poll on your electric rates and how you will fare on all this.

Again, this is for any altcoin and any ASIC flavor of machines. Again, I used Litecoin Machines Bitmain L3+'s above as my example.

Later

Brad