My theory: no more significant price drops as we approach halvening

Darooghe

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Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

As you know halvening theories are not an exact science. The highs and lows can be due to many factors such as market sentiment, news, large buy or sell orders, technical events, exchange hacks, adoption, govt regulation, timing such as time of the year when people are likely to come together with families and talk about their investment doing so well, which causes their friends and family to FOMO, even a tweet from a well know crypto spokesperson or politician, etc. Crypto Market is very unpredictable, but I think you are right. we are now in the beginning of a bull run if nothing very special and important happens.

el kaka22

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As soon as you said it, there was a 5% drop in price after this topic was created. Which goes to show you that we are still in the unknown zone for bitcoin, we all want it to go up and not go down at all but in the end we can't know what will happen 100% of the time. If you asked me I would 100% agree with the OP on the fact that price will not drop too much anymore, yet here we are 5% down from 24 hours ago and that is kinda the point, we are all wrong when it comes to bitcoin price predictions, maybe we can be right once or twice but eventually will be wrong.

However, just because we are down now doesn't mean we won't go up again, we will, maybe in next few days, maybe right after I post this or maybe in a month but I am 100% sure as much as we fall, we also get back up as well.

Lucius

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Quote from: hugeblack on January 09, 2020, 09:28:13 AM

Personally, I would expect to see an increase from 20% to 30% above the $ 7000 barrier, or in other words, an increase at $ 12,000 or $ 10,000, and after that, it will be a disastrous year, with a decrease below $ 4,000 or $ 2000 by the end of the year.
Generally, this halving will be the worst one.

I have to admit that this may be one of the most pessimistic thoughts I've read on the forum in the last few months, almost at the level of "BTC will be dead ... again .." You didn't write why you think the third halving will have such a negative impact on the price since the previous two had the exact opposite effect even just 6 months after halving.

I am of the opposite opinion, although I do not think that 2020 will be the year in which BTC will reach the new ATH, but that it will only take off and jump to new heights in 2021/2022. Price of only $2000 would be the result of an extremely negative event, which is not a possibility that should be rejected, but it is not something that is predictable in any way.

hugeblack

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The price has proven resilient to fall below the $ 5,000 barrier, so we have set limits at a minimum of $ 5,000 and a maximum of $ 15,000 before the second quarter of this year.
Personally, I would expect to see an increase from 20% to 30% above the $ 7000 barrier, or in other words, an increase at $ 12,000 or $ 10,000, and after that, it will be a disastrous year, with a decrease below $ 4,000 or $ 2000 by the end of the year.
Generally, this halving will be the worst one.

panganib999

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Possibly. Honestly, FOMO plays a huge part in this kind of speculation, and if someone actually manages to induce something that prevents FOMO, market could pretty much go under in just a few weeks. A few weeks later though, FOMO should bring up the price to new heights with quite a high chance, especially since the market has calmed down and it seems like everyone is pretty much just waiting for the FOMO factor to kick in. Though if a price drop were to happen, and a significant one at that, we could only expect it to be the halving as the cause, that or something negative, much so that it actually buried the halving underneath it.

piebeyb

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it doesn't look good at all if we see it under $ 7,000 let alone $ 6000, but it seems like the pope has made quite a lot of profit since a few months ago, soon halving won't be priced at $ 6000, I see a strong analysis at 1W so it will look good for the next few weeks forward, pay attention every week it will not keep going up and there will be where prices will go down gently then to jump even higher next week, I read my analysis this will go up and down stably, so there is no panic for everyone after 2 years of bleeding at the bear market to endure the pain, it really is more than enough this year and next year it's time to get out of that suffering Cheesy

arwin100

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Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

The price is slowly dropping right now but there's no need to get panic since I think this is usual movement of the market but it still have a chances that we can touch down to $7000 since there are so many months left before halving will occur and provably many whales want to buy more cheaper so there's a high possibilities that we can be manipulated nor fud will come to disturb the market for a short period of time.

trumpman

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Well that's what I hope too but to be honest, I won't be surprised if it falls or just stays stable at 8k despite the halvening. Imo, even a stable 6-7k is a good price for bitcoin. But of course it's the market and the people that will decide the price !

Also, it be nice to see alts pumping for a change too. At least nice for me 😂

target

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$500 drop is a big drop though. It was pumped too quickly, its obviously going to be dumped as well. And like them I also sold the BTC I have but quicklu bought again, I realized it was dumped more.
But lets just hope the FOMO spreads more so that the pump is going to be bigger than the previous drop. I'd like to believe it could break the resistance to go beyond the ATH because of the FOMO.

TitanGEL

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Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

There are always pullback after big pump, there are still crashed that will happen in the future. We should know the market cycle, there is always a market cycle and there is no forever bullish and bearish trend. We are still in bearish trend but there are now market reversal signs in the chart. I do not know if the halving can become a catalyst or a factor that can spkie the price of the bitcoin.

Wexnident

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Possibly. FOMO is a big psychological attack in the minds of traders, and I myself can't help but fall victim to it. Though there is a possibility of it going down to $7k just that the requirements for it are pretty harsh IMO. That is, for BTC to suddenly have a negative impact on society or something of similar notion, of which is pretty impossible so disregarding that, there's a low chance and most likely only those intentionally manipulating (if they can) the market could push it down.

Quote from: karanggatak on January 09, 2020, 12:32:11 AM

everything is possible in the bitcoin market. 4 days ago bitcoin continued to increase and reached a price of $ 8400 but today bitcoin fell again and returned to the level of $ 7900. I think $ 7000 is the lowest price of bitcoin if bitcoin has decreased. after decreasing I'm sure bitcoin will pump higher. and maybe that we will enter the bull market after bitcoin is reduced by half.

The push to $8.3k was honestly too fast so the drop was kind of expected. Still, if the price continues to drop, then some other factor may be at hand that helps the market price go down.

karanggatak

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everything is possible in the bitcoin market. 4 days ago bitcoin continued to increase and reached a price of $ 8400 but today bitcoin fell again and returned to the level of $ 7900. I think $ 7000 is the lowest price of bitcoin if bitcoin has decreased. after decreasing I'm sure bitcoin will pump higher. and maybe that we will enter the bull market after bitcoin is reduced by half.

Furious 7

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Quote from: robelneo on January 08, 2020, 09:53:06 PM

Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

Yes, there is a slight drop from $8300 to $7990, but not really an indication that we are slipping below the $7000 level again, and maybe you are right some whales are into profit right now, this is going to be the trend it's like two-step forward and one step backward but we are moving steadily although slowly, but I like it this way, I sometimes forgot that two weeks ago we are at $7200, very interesting pump this early month of the year.

It's still a long way down to $7,000. I think there are some hurdles to go through and it won't be a severe dump, we know now that the current bicoin price reduction is just a little. I won't deny that this will be a big dump, maybe I'm doing whales for buying cheap at that price of $ 8,000 and selling it with a target of $9,000 could just happen.
I will look at the next few days to see market movements and I am sure this will be more positive.

robelneo

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Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

Yes, there is a slight drop from $8300 to $7990, but not really an indication that we are slipping below the $7000 level again, and maybe you are right some whales are into profit right now, this is going to be the trend it's like two-step forward and one step backward but we are moving steadily although slowly, but I like it this way, I sometimes forgot that two weeks ago we are at $7200, very interesting pump this early month of the year.

hatshepsut93

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Well, Bitcoin is always unpredictable and sometimes it does very wild things. If you look at the 2017 bull run, there was a time when it quickly went from almost $5k to $3k - a huge crash that was caused by yet another "china ban bitcoin" type of news/rumor. But then Bitcoin almost instantly recovered and hit the ATH in a few months.

So, logically we shouldn't see any drops, because we should be entering a bull market due to halving, but it's not 100% certain.

ecnalubma

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We can’t be sure of that because anytime it could still drop that big gains just like the market’s previous behaviour, but I hope your right. Because we already know the nature of the crypto market which has full of surprise we shouldn’t anticipate that much.

Kyraishi

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Quote from: moviebuff777 on January 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM

Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

I do think so as well.

$7k has proved to be a viable support for bitcoin's future rallies. We've tested that level around 3 times and each time it held up without fail, which has led to the current bull run as people have a resurgence in confidence within the market and also a resurgence in sentiment.

There will be short term corrections, sure, but nothing on the scale of what we saw in 2018 or even late 2019.

moviebuff777

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Of course I could be wrong but since we are within about 4 months of the halvening, I think we have seen the last of the big price drops. There will be small drops due to profit taking but nothing significant.

There will be too much FOMO from this point forward for a drop below $7000 (I predict).

Topic: My theory: no more significant price drops as we approach halvening (Read 226 times)